New business formation in a rapidly growing economy: the Irish experience

The extraordinary growth of the Irish economy since the mid-1990s—the ‘Celtic Tiger’—has attracted a great deal of interest, commentary and research. Indeed, many countries look to Ireland as an economic development role model, and it has been suggested that Ireland might provide key lessons for other EU members as they seek to achieve the objectives set out in the Lisbon Agenda. Much of the discussion of Ireland’s growth has focused on its possible triggers: the long-term consequences of the late 1980s fiscal stabilisation, EU structural funds, education, wage moderation and devaluation of the Irish punt. The industrial policy perspective has highlighted the importance of inflows of foreign direct investment, but a notable absence from the discourse on the ‘Celtic Tiger’ has been any mention of the role of new business venture creation and entrepreneurship. In this paper we use unpublished Irish VAT data for the years 1988–2004 to provide the first detailed look at national trends in business birth and death rates in Ireland over the ‘take-off’ period. We also use sub-national VAT data to shed light on spatial trends in new venture creation. Our overall conclusions are that new business formation made no detectable contribution to the acceleration of Ireland’s growth in the late 1990s, although we do find evidence of spatial convergence in per capita business stocks.     

Greece and the Euro: The chronicle of an expected collapse

Ten years after Greece’s accession to EMU, the venture has proved to be almost a complete failure. Obviously, the country joined EMU disappointingly unprepared. After EMU accession, Greece failed to seek the necessary adaptations. Its economic policy was inconsistent with the economic logic and rules of the game of a monetary union. EMU did not in itself lead to the Greek crisis. Nevertheless, the supervisory arrangements clearly failed to work. Moreover, the unfolding of the crisis was assisted by EMU’s inherent weakness in managing asymmetric disturbances and the absence of early warning and rapid intervention mechanisms.     

Lässt sich der deutsche Leistungsbilanzüberschuss mit vertretbarem Aufwand reduzieren?

Can an expansive fiscal policy help to reduce Germany’s current account surplus while simultaneously creating positive spillover effects for the eurozone? If yes, what amount of measures would be required in order to bring the current account surplus below the 6% of GDP threshold specified in the EU Commission’s macroeconomic imbalance procedure? An analysis based on a global macroeconometric model shows that fiscal policy measures could reduce Germany’s surplus. The positive spillovers for the eurozone would be relatively small, however, while a huge amount of fiscal stimuli would be required to reach the 6% threshold. In addition, there would be a lasting increase in Germany’s public debt.     

Fiscal consolidation in Germany

The German federal government’s fiscal consolidation package, announced in June, is designed to permanently reduce the federal deficit to a new target level. This article uses a three-region version of the European Commission’s QUEST model to gauge the impact of the package on Germany and the spillover to the rest of the euro area and the rest of the world.     

Debt Relief as a Last Resort for the Lender of Last Resort?

The coronavirus crisis has led to a sharp increase in the debt-to-GDP ratios of the euro area member states. Without external support, access to the capital market could be seriously threatened in the medium term for Italy, but also for other member states. While the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme, which is designed as a monetary policy instrument, is regarded by some as a violation of the prohibition of monetary financing, the Next Generation EU recovery fund is likely to direct the fundamental structures of the European Union towards a fiscal union with considerable redistribution elements. This article analyses an alternative strategy, namely debt relief by the European System of Central Banks through an EU debt agency. Such a scheme would be possible without amending the EU treaties and would avoid negative equity at the central banks. The question is under what circumstances would this approach be suitable and proportionate?

     

Managing an Economy Under EMU: The Case of Ireland

Ireland's experience of limited monetary independence within the EMS indicated that such independence was bought at the price of significant risk premia on interest rates. This experience informed its decision to join EMU, and membership has resulted in the expected credibility gain. Since the start of EMU inflation in consumer prices in Ireland has risen well above the EU average. However, this need not be a matter of concern within a monetary union. Instead, what should concern the Irish administration is a high rate of inflation in wage rates and domestic asset prices chiefly housing. While monetary policy is no longer available as an instrument of domestic policy, fiscal policy can still be used to effectively target these problems. The lessons of the first three years of membership is that the focus of fiscal policy within Ireland needs to change, and that the EU institutions also need to focus more clearly on the needs of the Euro area rather than on those of individual regional economies.     

Eight months later — Has the Eurozone been stabilised or will EMU fall apart?

Eight months ago, as the risk of sovereign default in Greece fi rst emerged, the Intereconomics Forum invited a number of contributors to examine the options available to EU policymakers. As the threats to European Monetary Union resurface now, six of the same authors return in this issue’s Forum to reassess the situation, in particular with regard to the EU’s recent policy responses to the ongoing crisis. Whereas both optimists and pessimists could support their views with strong arguments eight months ago, the EU’s current predicament has shifted the prevailing sentiment strongly toward the pessimistic view. From the Irish bailout to the precarious status of Portugal, not to mention the potentially disastrous situation looming in Spain, our contributors are uncertain whether EU policymakers are up to the challenge of defending the euro. As evidence of this, several point to the EU Council’s October decision to establish a permanent crisis resolution mechanism to ensure an orderly state insolvency procedure, which did little to calm markets. Nonetheless, most of these economists still see ways for the EU to escape the crisis without being forced to abandon the common currency.     

从欧债危机看欧洲一体化进程中存在的问题

欧债危机根源于欧盟内部经济发展的不平衡以及欧盟内部体制上存在的缺陷。欧债危机的产生与欧洲一体化进程中存在的一味加快一体化进程,物质基础被破坏,欧盟制度安排存在缺陷,统一的货币政策与分散的财政政策无法有效协调等问题有着必然联系。要彻底解决欧债危机必须加快实现财政一体化,尽快缩小欧元区内部各国经济发展的差距;改革劳动力市场政策,促进劳动力要素自由流动;改革欧盟的制度安排,增强欧盟相关制度对成员国的约束力。     

The Value of Corporate Philanthropy During Times of Crisis: The Sensegiving Effect of Employee Involvement

Recent research suggests that philanthropy’s value to the firm is largely mediated by contextual factors such as managers’ assumed motives for charity. Our article extends this contingency perspective using a “sensegiving” lens, by which external actors’ interpretations of organizational actions may be influenced by the way in which the organization communicates about those actions. We consider how sensegiving features in philanthropy-related press releases affect whether investors value those donation decisions. For the empirical investigation in this study, we analyze abnormal returns to announcements by U.S. Fortune 500 firms documenting their donations to Hurricane Katrina disaster relief in 2005. We expect that in general, donation decisions would be controversial given the uncertainty surrounding the hurricane’s economic effects at the time. However, we also propose that announcements emphasizing employee involvement in the donation send investors positive signals about the firm’s ability to bounce back from the disaster’s adverse effects. We find empirical support for the proposed hypotheses, and discuss the implications for theory and practice.     

Künftige Finanzplanung der EU — neue Prioritäten,höhere Effizienz?

On May 2, 2018, the European Commission proposed a limited and realistic increase for the EU’s next multi-annual financial framework 2021–2027. The draft implies a roughly constant common budget for the EU with a focus on European stabilisation policy and the provision of centralised public goods provision rather than agriculture and cohesion. This shift mirrors the priorities spelled out by Emanuel Macron. However, the Commission combined this pragmatism with its interest in improving budgetary flexibility and autonomy. There is no doubt that the EU27 faces difficult negotiations. EU Member States’ initial reactions to the European Commision’s recent proposals were dominated by juste retour considerations reminiscent of past negotiations. Strengthening EU expenditure through European added value and fundamentally reforming their own resource system, including the introduction of tax-based own resources, will end the deadlock surrounding net position thinking. A more fundamental view on the fiscal policy of the European Union is given in the last paper, which states that the EU requires a complete overhaul of the economic governance structure. It offers a tentative approach that avoids moral hazard problems as well as fallacies about conditional backstops during times of crisis.     

EU Merger Control and the Compatibility Test Revisited

EU merger policy is shaped and driven by the EU Merger Control Regulation (MCR). An essential element of this is the compatibility test, which determines whether a merger with a Community Dimension signifi cantly impedes competition, and therefore the merger’s compatibility with the common market. This article assesses two recent changes to the compatibility test, the 2004 MCR’s rewording of the test and the new foreseeable dominance variant as made law by the Court of First Instance and the European Court of Justice.     

Transpacific Trade Imbalances: Causes and Cures

This paper explores the causes of the transpacific trade imbalances using an empirical global model. It also evaluates the impact of various policies to reduce these imbalances. We find the fundamental cause of trade imbalance since 1997 is changes in saving‐investment gaps, attributed to the surge of the US fiscal deficits and the decline of East Asia's private investment after the 1997 financial crisis. Our simulation results show that a revaluation of East Asia's exchange rates by 10 per cent (effectively a shift in monetary policy) cannot resolve the imbalances. We find East Asia's concerted efforts to stimulate aggregate demand can have significant impacts on trade balances globally, but the impact on the US trade balance is not large. US fiscal contraction is estimated to have large impacts on the US trade position overall and on the bilateral trade balances with East Asian economies. These results suggest that in order to improve the transpacific imbalance, macroeconomic adjustment will need to be made on both sides of the Pacific.     

Fiscal divergence, current account divergence and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU

Diverging fiscal policy paths, housing booms and diverging unit labour costs were driving forces of rising intra-European current account imbalances, which were underpinned by low interest rates. Since the outbreak of the crisis, the adjustment of intra-EMU current account imbalances has been postponed by a rising divergence of TARGET2 balances, as the repatriation of private international credit and deposit flight from the crisis economies is intermediated by central bank credit. Given that this process has brought the Deutsche Bundesbank into a debtor position to the domestic financial system, the article discusses options for liquidity absorption by the Bundesbank to forestall asset price bubbles in Germany.     

The Fiscal Framework in a Currency Union: Lessons from a Comparison between the Euro Area and the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union

This paper draws out lessons from the euro area (EA) that are transferable to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) and other Caribbean economies with fixed exchange rates. Based on observations from both the EA and the ECCU, we present a new policy framework which is capable of imposing fiscal discipline, with the aim of avoiding the risk of unsustainable fiscal policies reappearing and of preventing monetary policy from being undermined by undisciplined national governments. In the ECCU case, we find that fiscal deficits are more a result of financial and trade imbalances than fiscal indiscipline per se. Consequently, constraints on overall debt, public and private, rather than direct limits on endogenous public deficits, appear to be the appropriate response.     

Population, health and risk factors in a transitional economy

This paper investigates the health status of the population in a transition economy. Against a background of falling living standards compounded by the widening income inequality a deterioration of health status has been outlined. Drawing upon a consumer survey carried out in the capital Bucharest, risk factors are highlighted. Respondents’ age, income, and health motivation are the most significant variables which differentiate between smokers and non-smokers. Respondent’s age and sex are significant factors predicting the physical exercise status. Additionally, respondent’s level of education is a significant predictor of the time spent on physical exercise. The implications of the study for health policy makers are finally discussed.     

The New Political Economy of EU State Aid Policy

Despite its importance and singularity, the EU’s state aid policy has attracted less scholarly attention than other elements of EU competition policy. Introducing the themes addressed by the special issue, this article briefly reviews the development of EU policy and highlights why the control of state aid matters. The Commission’s response to the current economic crisis notably in banking and the car industry is a key concern, but the interests of the special issue go far beyond. They include: the role of the European Commission in the development of EU policy, the politics of state aid, and a clash between models of capitalism. The special issue also examines the impact of EU policy. It investigates how EU state aid decisions affect not only industrial policy at the national level (and therefore at the EU level), but the welfare state and territorial relations within federal member states, the external implications of EU action and the strategies pursued by the Commission to limit any potential disadvantage to European firms, and the conflict between the EU’s expanding legal order and national.     

Challenges facing European labour markets: Is a skill upgrade the appropriate instrument?

The financial and economic crisis shattered the Lisbon Strategy’s attempt to increase the EU’s employment rate to 70% among 15–64 year olds by 2010. The new Europe 2020 strategy envisages a 75% adult employment rate by 2020; however, this goal also seems unrealistic in light of the economic crisis which has caused the EU’s employment rate to drop significantly below 70%. A crucial question now is whether a skill upgrade of the European labour force would help to increase the employment rate, especially among youth. This Forum explores the relationship between education and employment throughout the EU.     

Debt developments and fiscal adjustment in the EU

Since the financial crisis in 2008–09, concern over the sustainability of some EU countries’ sovereign debt has continued to mount higher and higher. This paper explores the ways in which the financial crisis caused the deterioration of European debt-to-GDP ratios, examines which countries are on sustainable debt paths and quantifies the fiscal adjustment required per country for debt sustainability.     

EU Enlargement Creating a Framework for the Eu-Russian Rapprochement

Abstract

The Eastern enlargement of the European Union has substantial influence on EU external policy and its relations with non-EU countries, including Russia. In this situation, Russia's main concern is to avoid the creation of new dividing lines after the enlargement. This paper will argue that instead of dividing Europe, the EU enlargement would create a framework for further cooperation and eventually rapprochement between the EU and Russia. Therefore, Russia would be able to benefit from this process. The paper will analyse the consequences of the EU enlargement for Russia and examine the main political concepts determining directions of this rapprochement between the European Union and Russia: New Neighbourhood, Common Spaces and Eastern dimension.