管理层盈余预测与不对称及时性实证研究

为了分析管理层盈余预测对盈余不对称及时性之间的关系,即发布消息的时间点和内容分类对盈余不对称及时性的影响,用Basu模型分段实证检验盈余预测对盈余不对称及时性的影响、正(负)向盈余预测与不对称及时性的关系,以及当期发布的盈余预警对盈余不对称及时性的影响。结果表明,不对称及时性对公司发布的未来盈余的影响不显著,公司发布预期盈余的时间及时性主要集中在负向盈余意外,这与价格引导盈余引起更多的未来盈余预测的向下有偏的不对称及时性系数相一致,当期发布盈余预警会降低盈余与收益的不对称及时性。管理层发布内部盈余预测,有助于缓解与外部信息使用者之间的信息不对称,满足利益相关者的决策需求,进而有助于促进证券市场向半强式有效市场转化。     

Impact of price limits on Taiwan security returns

The paper investigates the effects of daily price limits imposed by the R.O.C. Government on shares listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The study is performed on nineteen blue-chip stocks from six industries. For each sample stock, the daily returns (from 4 January 1986 to 24 October 1987) are divided into three groups: (A) first experimental, (B) second experimental and (C) control groups. Each sample point in groups A and B consists of one event day and the following six trading days. Event day is defined to be the day the stock price reaches the upper (lower) price limit. Group C comprises all other days, except ex-dividend days. Group C data are used in the market model to obtain the alpha and beta estimates for that stock. These estimates are then used to (CARs) embedded in data sets A and B. The preliminary results of this research suggest severe violation of the random walk hypothesis. Further, the impact of government imposed price limits on stocks varies across stocks. While several patterns of CARs of stock return are observed, the results suggest existence of potential profitable short-run investment strategies among several sample stocks in this study.We are most grateful to the National Science Council of Taiwan and National Chiao-Tung University for providing the data set, SPIT. This paper has benefitted from the discussion in the conference.     

Corporate spinoffs and analysts' coverage decisions: The implications for diversified firms

Research summary: This paper investigates how spinoffs improve the quality of analysts' research about diversified firms, theorizing that these deals may induce analysts to revisit their earlier coverage decisions. The gains resulting from these shifts are expected to be more pronounced when a firm undertakes a legacy (rather than a non‐legacy) spinoff, which removes the business that may be constraining analysts' coverage decisions in the first place. Consistent with this argument, firms that undertake legacy spinoffs experience greater improvements in the composition and quality of their analyst coverage than their non‐legacy counterparts, and in their overall forecast accuracy and stock market performance. Taken together, these findings shed light on the relationships among the scope decisions, analyst coverage, and valuations of diversified firms. Managerial summary: Existing research has established that when companies undertake spinoffs, analysts produce more accurate forecasts about the divesting firms than they did prior to those deals, and the stock market performance of those firms also improves relative to pre‐spinoff levels. This paper explores the effects of legacy spinoffs (the spinoff of a firm's original or “legacy” business) for forecast accuracy and stock market performance. Firms that undertake legacy spinoffs are found to enjoy greater improvements in forecast accuracy and stock market performance than their non‐legacy counterparts. These findings are driven by the fact that legacy spinoffs induce analysts to revisit their existing coverage decisions to a greater extent than non‐legacy spinoffs, contributing significantly to the economic benefits of these deals for shareholders. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Operational flexibility and market valuation of earnings

This paper examines the association between the stock returns and accounting earnings of firms that have different levels of operational flexibility. Operational flexibility is a firm’s ability to respond profitably to environmental fluctuations by shifting factors of production within a multinational network of subsidiaries. The geographic breadth and depth of a firm’s multinational network are used as indicators of operational flexibility. We find a significantly greater coefficient relating stock returns and accounting earnings for multinational firms that operate in many countries, but limit their concentration in any one foreign country, than for other multinational firms or domestic firms. This coefficient is significantly smaller for multinational firms whose foreign subsidiaries are highly concentrated in a few countries. When all multinational firms are pooled together, we find their earnings‐returns association does not differ from that of domestic firms. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Diversification and intervalling effects on stock returns

Diversification and intervalling effects on stock markets have been studied separately in the literature. This paper studies empirically the interaction of these two joint effects on five international stock markets. The diversification benefits may depend on the length of the holding interval because the covariance between two stock indexes may not change proportionally with the individual stock indexes' variances when the holding interval varies. The empirical results show that the degree of diversification benefit varies with the length of the holding interval. The greatest gain occurs with the shortest holding interval while the degree of risk reduction decreases with an increase in the holding interval in general.     

Board social capital and excess CEO returns

Excess CEO returns refer to CEO financial returns in excess of shareholder returns. How do boards rein in excess CEO returns? Introducing a social capital view of board monitoring, we suggest that boards face two competing normative pressures—corporate elite norms and monitoring norms. How boards conform to such normative pressures for controlling excess CEO returns is affected by their external and internal social capital. Further, we substantiate our arguments by showing that powerful CEOs and institutional investors may facilitate or constrain the normative pressures existing in the social network and alter the effects of board social capital on excess CEO returns. Data from a sample of U.S. corporations listed on the Standard and Poor's 1,500 index from 1999 to 2010 largely support our framework. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

CPF stocks: Prices,returns and volatility

We identify a unique phenomenon in the Central Provident Fund (CPF) stocks where stock prices increase in the absence of fundamental changes in firm value. CPF stocks are stocks endorsed by the Central Provident Fund Board in Singapore as approved investment for its members. CPF stocks offer significant price appreciation and value preservation as well as abnormal returns in the bull market before the October 1987 market crash. We find evidence of noise trading in bull markets and price pressure effects that persist through bearish market conditions.The authors are from the Department of Finance and Banking, National University of Singapore.     

Refunds and returns in a vertically differentiated industry

Firms frequently offer refunds, both when physical products are returned and when service contracts are terminated prematurely. We show how refunds act as a “metering device” when consumers learn about their personal valuation while experimenting with the product or service. Our theory predicts that low-quality firms offer inefficiently strict terms for refunds, while high-quality firms offer inefficiently generous terms. This may help to explain the observed variety in contractual terms.     

Experience effects and collaborative returns in R&D alliances

Focusing on the link between prior alliance experience and firm benefits from R&D collaborations, this paper explores whether firms learn to manage their alliances. While prior experience should increase collaborative benefits from the current alliance, I expect these returns: (1) to be most beneficial when alliance activities are more uncertain; and (2) to diminish at high levels of experience. Results from a sample of 464 R&D alliances in the telecom equipment industry generally match these expectations. The positive benefits of prior experience in complex alliances suggest that a broader set of alliance management processes allows the firm to manage situations of ambiguity more readily. The lack of cumulative benefits from prior experience appears to be partly due to knowledge depreciating over time, since only recent experience has a positive impact on collaborative returns. Overall, these results provide empirical evidence of the effect of prior experience on collaborative benefits, both directly and conditionally on alliance characteristics, and have implications for learning to manage organizations more generally. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Innovative productivity and returns to scale in the pharmaceutical industry

This study shows that firms in the pharmaceutical industry experience decreasing returns to scale in R & D as the level of R & D expenditures rises. The paper presents the results of our study of the innovative output of 16 pharmaceutical firms over a 19 year period. Given the strong correlation between R & D budgets and firm size, our study suggests the wave of mergers in the industry may yield less innovative productivity than managers expect.     

能源安全与上海发展

上海作为一个资源消耗型的国际大都市,消耗的能源几乎全部靠国内调入和国外进口,能源的发展完全依赖于外部市场.而当前,国际形势风云变幻,受多种不确定因素的影响,国际原油价格大幅波动,未来世界天然气市场格局不明朗;在国内,东部沿海地区能源对外依存度高,区域能源系统协调性差,能源的结构性、季节性矛盾明显.这些问题正在影响着上海社会经济的可持续发展.     

Robust optimal policies of production and inventory with uncertain returns and demand

We consider an inventory and production planning problem with uncertain demand and returns, in which the product return process is integrated into the manufacturing process over a finite planning horizon. We first propose an inventory control model for the return and remanufacturing processes with consideration of the uncertainty of the demand and returns. Then a robust optimization approach is applied to deal with the uncertainty of the problem through formulating a robust linear programming model. Moreover, properties on the robust optimization model are studied, and an equivalent robust optimization model based on duality theory is obtained which allows the solutions to be derived more efficiently. Finally, we provide a set of numerical examples to verify the effectiveness of the approach and analyze the effects of the key parameters on the solutions.     

Financial returns and strategic interaction: The case of instant photography

The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of shareholder returns to study the impact of complex strategic interactions that involve a sequence of moves by competing firms. The paper seeks to begin to build a bridge between the capital asset pricing model of modern financial theory and competitive strategy. Competition in instant photography is used as an example. Results demonstrate how shareholder returns and changes in market risk (β) can be associated with both overall strategies and specific competitive moves.     

Patterns of abnormal returns and the competitive effects of horizontal mergers

This paper examines the abnormal stock returns of rivals of firms undertaking horizontal mergers that were challenged by the FTC over the period 1981–1987. At the time of merger announcements, the rivals earn positive abnormal return on average; at the time of the antitrust complaints, the rivals earn normal returns. Past studies have argued that this specific pattern of abnormal returns necessarily indicates that mergers could not have reduced competition. This paper finds that this pattern of abnormal returns is a result of the different effects of antitrust complaints on smaller and larger rivals. The evidence suggests that the mergers may have created efficiencies, but the pattern of abnormal returns is not inconsistent with mergers that may also have resulted in higher product prices.     

Corporate social performance,analyst stock recommendations,and firm future returns

This study posits that security analysts heed corporate social performance information and factor it into their recommendations to general investors. In particular, as corporate social performance is often uncertain and ambiguous to general investors, analysts may serve as the informational pathway connecting corporate social performance to firm stock returns. Thus, we argue that analyst recommendations mediate the relationship between corporate social performance and firm stock returns. On the basis of not only a qualitative study with literature searches and interviews of stock analysts but also a quantitative study with two longitudinal samples of large firms, we find support for these arguments. Our findings uncover an information‐based underlying mechanism for the link between corporate social performance and financial performance. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nature and dynamics of appropriability: strategies for appropriating returns on innovation

The appropriability regime represents a combination of available and effective means of protecting intangibles and innovations, their profitability, and the increased rents due to research and development. It has a central role in appropriating returns on investment, but the nature of appropriability and the strategies for appropriation may not be fully known to managers, or even to researchers. The aim in this study, therefore, is to categorise the appropriability regime by extending, combining and complementing previous research. We also conducted a survey among 299 companies in order to determine the roles, availability, strength and efficiency of appropriability mechanisms. Such mechanisms offer institutional protection in the form of intellectual property rights, contracts and labour legislation, tacitness of knowledge, lead-time, practical secrecy and human-resource management. As a result, we suggest a conceptual clarification of the appropriability regime, and offer empirical evidence to increase understanding of the appropriation of returns on innovation.     

上市公司股权激励盈余管理及影响因素研究

自股权激励办法施行以来,股权激励作为一种降低代理成本的激励方式,被越来越多的上市公司所采用。然而实证发现,盈余管理会伴随股权激励发生,实行股权激励公司在业绩考核第一年存在显著的盈余管理现象,而业绩考核前一年并不存在。在影响盈余管理的因素上,公司选用考核范围更广的业绩指标能减少管理层进行盈余管理的动机,行权时长的增加会给管理层盈余管理造成一些困难,从而抑制管理层在后阶段盈余管理的行为。     

Trade liberalization and food security in Nepal

Among South Asian countries, Nepal liberalized most extensively during the 1980s and 1990s on both domestic and external fronts. In South Asia, Nepal has the lowest per capita income, highest dependence of population on agriculture and second highest poverty rate. At the same time, Nepal has the lowest average tariffs in South Asia and has taken several steps to downsize its public food distribution system and remove a host of agricultural subsidies. The outcomes from these policy reforms in Nepal are mixed. Aggregate indicators of food sufficiency and security (per capita food availability, extent of malnourishment) show improvement in Nepal since liberalization. Relative to other South Asian countries, Nepal is doing better on some indicators, like extent of undernourished population, while on other indicators, like stunting of children, Nepal is actually doing the worst. More importantly, the gains from liberalization across regions in Nepal have been uneven. The reason for such an uneven outcome is lack of complementary policies from the government that would lead to spatial integration of markets (e.g. the creation of physical and marketing infrastructure). Liberalization has in effect reinforced the ex-ante hierarchy across regions in Nepal. The paper then reviews the role and reform of the Nepal Food Corporation (NFC) within this broader context.