Technology adoption and mitigation of invasive species damage and risk: application to zebra mussels

Using a bio-economic model of zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), we examine the expected economic value of prevention, control and eradication alternatives for the freshwater mussel in Lake Okeechobee (Florida, USA). We include two emerging technologies for zebra mussel (ZM) control: (1) a natural pesticide called Zequanox, and (2) hot wash stations at boat ramps. We employ water management district data, user data collected via a phone survey, and mitigation expenditures from infested locations elsewhere to estimate the potential damage from the introduction of zebra mussels in Florida. Methods used include static cost transfer estimation, econometric cost estimation, and stochastic-dynamic simulation. We use our bio-economic model to compare costs and risks with and without the emerging technologies. We also consider the impact of technology adoption rates by anglers, management policy efficacy, and opportunity costs associated with ZM control. Results indicate that, without investment in prevention, there is a very high probability that Florida waterways will be infested with zebra mussels by year 2025, and expected environmental damages and management costs are high. Slow response due to poor detection methods or insufficient control efforts will lead to a moderate probability of a significant infestation. Rapid reaction and enhanced prevention efforts are expected to greatly reduce the probability of ZM infesting Lake Okeechobee by 2025, and to generate much higher expected net benefits.     

Japanese technological innovation strategy: recent trends

Firstly, a review of models of the Japanese innovation process is presented and the dominant characteristics of each model are identijed. The latest innovation trends in Japan are analysed using recent examples, and a n integrative model is presented based on these. The major elements of the Japanese innovative process are as follows: (a) organizational intelligence; (b) fusion of technologies; (c) horizontal information flow structures; (d) core competence building i n generic technologies; (e) rapid horizontal duffusion of technologies; V) concurrent engineering; (g) rapid commercialization of new technologies into new businesses. National innovation policies have to be structured to enable quick response to the emerging global changes.     

新兴技术演化模式研究及其管理启示

新兴技术对传统产业的破坏对象有两类——核心经营活动和核心资产。按照破坏对象的不同,本文从核心资产颠覆和核心经营活动颠覆两个维度将新兴技术的演化模式划分为三种类型,并结合具体的实例对所提出的三种新兴技术演化模式的特点进行分析。在此基础上,针对不同类型的新兴技术演化模式,总结了差异化的管理启示。     

Modelling time of day substitution using the second moments of demand

Time of day (TOD) rates are a commonly used method for peak load pricing of many services. Such services as; electricity, communications, transportation, shared computer facilities, and computer networks (i.e. the Internet), either use, or will use, some form of TOD pricing. However, TOD rates do not ensure a movement towards economic efficiency unless the patterns of TOD substitution are known. The model presented here provedes a method for estimating TOD substitution without the need for rate experiments that have proven to be both costly and limited by sample selection bias problems. This model employs the estimated second moment of demand to estimate a matrix of relative own- and cross-price elasticities and it can estimate elasticities even when there is no apparent TOD price variation. The low level of computations required for the estimates allows the application of a bootstrap procedure to estimate the covariance matrix of the elasticities. Two applications of this model are presented: a case of aggregate demand for computer services and a case of an individual household's electricity demand.     

Incentive mechanisms for cost revelation with intermodal competition

To set regulated utility prices that are sustainable against uneconomic bypass alternatives, regulators must estimate the costs of the alternative bypass technologies; this entails a series of theoretical and institutional problems that regulators cannot practically resolve. This paper now develops a simple incentive mechanism that effectively solves those problems associated with producing an optimal amount of bypass. In the suggested procedure, regulators use readily available accounting data to specify one two-part tariff that covers the utility's revenue requirements and is deemed fair by regulators and consumers; as long as it offers this fair tariff, the company may subsequently offer as many alternative tariffs as it sees fit, including some particularly aimed to deter bypass. This procedure gives a utility the correct incentive to determine its own and its rivals' cost structures; with accurate cost information, the utility will design a menu of tariffs that would eliminate uneconomic bypass and would be responsive to changing cost conditions in the emerging bypass markets.     

欧盟未来新兴技术计划概况及进展

为加强欧盟信息技术前沿领域的研发创新,鼓励大规模产学研合作,提升整体科研竞争力,欧盟于2009年起,着手对未来新兴技术(FET)的大型研发和资助进行探索。经过长期筹备和多次选拔,2013年初,"石墨烯"和"人脑计划"项目被选为首批FET旗舰项目,分别获得总额10亿欧元的十年期资助。此举体现了欧盟以长远发展的眼光,对未来新兴技术的发展和多领域研发合作的高度重视。对欧盟未来新兴技术计划进行深入分析和研究,有助于我国相关机构和科技人员借鉴欧盟未来技术的研发理念和经验,加强有关研究和国际合作,探索适合我国国情的新一代信息技术前沿应用领域,提高我国的科研竞争力,为人类健康和社会可持续发展服务。     

Output gaps

What is the output gap? I discuss three alternative definitions: the deviation of output from its long-run stochastic trend (i.e., the “Beveridge–Nelson cycle”); the deviation of output from the level consistent with current technologies and normal utilization of capital and labor input (i.e., the “production-function approach”); and the deviation of output from “flexible-price” output (i.e., its “natural rate”). Estimates of each concept are presented from a dynamic–stochastic–general-equilibrium (DSGE) model of the U.S. economy used at the Federal Reserve Board. Four points are emphasized: The DSGE model’s estimate of the gap (for each definition) is very similar to gaps from policy institutions, but the model’s estimate of potential growth has a higher variance and substantially different covariance with GDP growth; the change in the Beveridge–Nelson trend covaries negatively with the change in the gap in the DSGE model, providing a structural model estimate of a controversial parameter; in this model, estimates of the natural-rate concept are similar to those based on the Beveridge–Nelson and production function approaches; and the estimate of the output gap, irrespective of definition, is closely related to unemployment fluctuations.     

Bridging the gap between foresight and market research: Integrating methods to assess the economic potential of nanotechnology

This paper discusses how to bridge the gap between foresight research oriented to the long-term, and traditional market research oriented to the medium to short term, when applied to an early stage of a technology's life cycle. It proposes using an integrating approach, i.e. a combination of methods and both foresight and traditional market research. A mix of complementary methods for the acquisition and analysis of data is presented in a case study. This helps to overcome the deficits of some qualitative foresight methods and quantitative methods often used in traditional market research and allows us to examine research results from the different methods applied both on their own and as a group. In the absence of a single fully-fledged and accepted economic approach, this paper argues that combined market research and foresight modules are the best possible approach for analyzing the economic potential of emerging technologies like nanotechnology. In the future, similar applications of such market foresight modules may be useful, for example, as elements of foresight. They will also be useful in studies of emerging technologies (e.g. converging technologies, cognitive science and Web 2.0) where traditional market research does not produce a realistic market assessment.     

THE ACCOUNTS AND THE COMPUTER

(1) The primary contribution from the computer's application to the national accounts may well be to erode the line between micro and macro analysis. Key macro totals in the accounts sum individual company reports. The computer permits us to develop distributions of these reports. Such distributions, regularly presented, would permit discovery of the first forerunners of change, would help distinguish, e.g., widespread strength in an export drive or a profits surge, from participation by a few major concerns that dominate the aggregate.
(2) The strikingly different parameters in cross section and time series studies (e.g., price elasticity of housing) will in some measure reflect incomparability between the micro data that enter into each. The computer makes possible the use of the wide array of micro data that really underly the accounts to develop consistent analyses of time series (of both aggregates and distributions) and cross section analyses.
(3) The inconsistencies now imbedded in the accounts but gilded over by the abilities of the estimators are well-known. Discussions of wage price policy rest on data for wages that have no necessary compatibility with data on profits, etc. But since 1,500 corporations account for at least half of U.S. net income, sales, and investment, the computer can test the consistency of reports made by different units in these firms to different agencies—a process totally out of the question before the computer.
(4) The potential that the computer offers for prompt revisions in the accounts; for revisions by systematic rule; for tests of sensitivity of the entire set of accounts to particular tailor-made adjustments, is clear.
(5) Company purchase orders and accounts are increasingly recorded on cards or tapes. From these we may derive input-output detail and process detail that are light years better than those now feasible from intermittent survey aggregates.     

Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis

It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.     

Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

A Survey of Textbooks for Industrial Organization and Public Policy

All teachers of economics will be interested in the author's dissection of the industrial organization course into its components. Teachers of this specialty will find this survey particularly useful for its examination of how the major texts treat each of the components.     

Addressing the information needs of technology managers: Making derived information usable

Technology managers are faced with identifying emerging technologies with the greatest economic potential. Text mining of technical information sources has great potential for structuring and analyzing the vast amounts of information that is available today. There are tools available capable of analyzing patents and publication databases for trends, identifying emerging activity, and monitoring competitors. However, a disconnect between managers' information needs and the analysts' information provides a significant challenge. Additionally, technology managers are not accustomed to processing derived knowledge obtained through text mining. Thus, analysts must present information to managers so that they can easily and accurately interpret it. This paper investigates an approach that presents derived information in the context of stated information needs by technology managers. Those information needs are assessed via survey, applied to a sample technology record set, and evaluated according to stated criteria.     

A challenge of integrating technology foresight and assessment in industrial strategy development and policymaking

Appropriate demand articulation of emerging technologies to social needs are vital to the economic and social productivity, and it is essential to grasp the future trends of social needs and technology advancement to promote the strategic technology policy. Japan embarked on technology foresight in the early 1970s and has since been conducting a regular Delphi survey approximately every 5 years. To explore a new intelligent methodology for integrating technological seeds and social needs by articulating future demands, this paper reviews the following two cases: the Delphi-scenario writing (DSW) method, which is applied in 1977 for the home/office small facsimile, and the method of general assessment applied in 1972 for informationalization, which focused on the rapidly advancing information society, with a matrix scoring and policy-simulation method. Those new approaches were proved to be a powerful methodology to integrate the technology forecasting and assessment for comprehensive understanding of the emerging technologies and their social impacts in the form of integrated technology road mapping, which supports the integrated strategic planning methodology for enhancing the future innovation system.     

Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies

Technological development is often described as an evolutionary process of variation, selection and retention. Different technologies are seen as variations, while the market and other institutions operate as a selection environment. It is less understood, however, how variation and selection relate in the case of emerging technologies. In this paper we introduce the concept of arenas of expectations to examine the relationship between variation and selection processes. Expectations are of particular interest in a pre-market phase of innovation, when performance, cost and other market criteria are less articulated and not stable. In arenas of expectations ‘enactors’ of particular technological variations voice and maintain expectations, while ‘selectors’ will compare and assess the competing claims. We analyse the expectations work of both parties in a case study on metal hydrides for the on-board storage of hydrogen for automotive applications. The paper concludes with a framework of ‘arenas of expectations’ as the linchpin between the processes of variation and selection of emerging technologies.     

Does aging affect preferences for welfare spending? A study of peoples' spending preferences in 22 countries, 1985–2006

A recurrent assertion is that aging will intensify age-related conflict over public budget allocation. If people are led by their self-interest, the young will prioritize public education services, while the elderly will demand better pensions and health-care services. Addressing this issue requires longitudinal survey data and estimation of age (life-cycle), period and cohort effects. Except for a few of studies based on US data, such analyses are non-existent.We use repeated cross-section survey-data for 22 countries. Respondents are classified into ten-year age-groups and birth decades, and we estimate a regression model explaining respondents' public spending preferences. When period and cohort effects are taken into account, elderly people want less education spending, and more health care and pension spending. These life-cycle effects vary considerably between countries, but are generally quite small. Preferences also appear mostly unrelated to left–right party choice.     

The dual analytic hierarchy process to prioritize emerging technologies

Recently, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been frequently used as a proper tool for a wide variety of decision-making situations in fields such as government, business, industry, healthcare, and education. In this article, we will mainly focus on the use of the AHP to select proper emerging technologies for future R&D at a country level. For successful completion of our project, we propose to use the dual AHP (DAHP) which consists of the regular AHP and the Bayesian type AHP. This DAHP performs useful features when decomposition of the main criteria is desirable but is not technically feasible via the conventional AHP. As an empirical application, appropriate electronic device technologies for future R&D in Korea are found by the DAHP, which reveals that DAHP-led technologies selection (or DAHP-led resources allocation) at a country level is a many-faceted problem.     

新兴技术产业化潜力评价及其特征研究

将技术预见的方法和思想运用于新兴技术产业化潜力评价与新兴技术选择中,建立了新兴技术产业化潜力评价指标体系。通过德尔菲问卷调查对28个奥运洁净能源专项项目技术的产业化潜力进行了实证研究,并根据新兴技术产业化潜力的大小将待评价技术分为两组,通过配对样本t检验对导致产业化潜力差异的新兴技术的技术特征、市场特征以及其他特征进行识别和研究,找出影响新兴技术产业化潜力的决定因素。结果表明:新兴技术的技术特征包括形成技术标准和成为主导技术两个子特征;市场特征和符合性特征是决定新兴技术产业化潜力的重要因素。在评价和选择新兴技术时,既要考虑新兴技术产业化潜力的综合评价结果,又要考虑影响新兴技术产业化潜力的重要特征,这样才能保证决策的科学性和准确性。     

Easing the assessment of emerging technologies in technology observatories. Findings about patterns of dissemination of emerging technologies on the internet

This paper considers the Web as a big data container that can be used by Technology Observatories and administrations to track emerging issues and more specifically emerging technologies. It considers information that is available on the Internet for free from different sources, and proposes a framework that can be useful to characterise them and to detect patterns of dissemination. This framework is made up of 30 metrics obtained from different kinds of sources (general web, patents, scholars?…). Some of them are obtained directly as the number of hits retrieved by queries on a search engine, and other ones calculated by means of ratios. This paper contains the development of a complete case that utilises this framework to characterise emerging technologies included in the well-known Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, in this case the 2015 release¹ and to analyze patterns of dissemination of these technologies on the Internet.