Dynamic routing of time-sensitive air cargo using real-time information

The route planning of time-sensitive air-cargo is becoming more important with the growing air-network congestion and delays. We consider a freight forwarder’s routing of a time-sensitive air-cargo in the presence of real-time and historical information regarding flight availability, departure delays and travel times. A departure delay estimation model is developed to account for real-time information inaccuracy. A novel Markov decision model is formulated and solved with online backward induction. Through synthetic experiments and case studies, we demonstrate that dynamic routing with real-time information can improve delivery reliability and reduce expected cost.     

High-speed rail and office location choices. A stated choice experiment for the Netherlands

High-speed rail is seen as a factor contributing to the attractiveness of a location for economic activities. This paper focuses on how the level-of-service characteristics of railway stations, and in particular the presence of high-speed train services, influence the attractiveness of locations for specific types of offices. The results are presented for a stated choice experiment for location choices of offices in the Netherlands. It is concluded that the availability of high-speed train services contributes to the attractiveness of a location for offices. For internationally-oriented offices the areas around stations with international high-speed train services are attractive because of their good international accessibility. We also found an indication that high-speed train services can raise the status of an office site. In the Netherlands, the domestic high-speed train services are less relevant for location choices, because of the small domestic distances. Besides high-speed train services, other location characteristics that determine how well a site is connected to the railway network are also found to be important for location choices. Thereby differences between offices occur, which can partly be explained by the number of trips to/from an office.     

Factors influencing cargo airlines’ choice of airport: An international survey

This paper identifies and evaluates the myriad of factors that influence the choice of airport by freighter-operating airlines. The findings are presented from an international postal survey of airlines operating freighter aircraft on a scheduled non-integrated basis. A number of factors such as night curfews, freight forwarders and airport charges are found to be influential and these are examined against a number of dependent variables such as the airline's home region and operational patterns in order to identify key variations.     

云南铁路货运量增长问题研究

在分析国内外铁路货运需求增长模型的基础上,提出铁路货运需求增长过程的4阶段划分理论,结合云南铁路发展滞后的现状,建立了消除铁路货运能力限制的货运量增长模型。通过对云南铁路货运量和货运需求量的计算,应用MATLAB仿真技术验证了模型的正确性,并对云南铁路货运量和货运需求量进行了预测。     

An economic–geographic assessment of the potential for a new air transport hub in post-Gaddafi Libya

Post-war Libya is faced with the challenge of adopting an air transport strategy for the future. One issue is how to address projects inaugurated under the Gaddafi government, such as the terminal extension at Tripoli International Airport. Additionally, the state-owned Afriqiyah Airlines had been establishing a niche hub in Tripoli before the 2011 war, but this development has subsequently been stalled.Against this background, we analyse the prospects of an air transport hub operation in Libya, focusing on traffic between Africa and Europe, from a bird’s-eye economic–geographic view. First, a literature review is undertaken to identify general success factors for air transport hubs. Second, a weighted average distance penalty (WADP) indicator is developed and applied to Tripoli as a potential hub location. This indicator considers all 4755 O&Ds between Europe and Africa with more than 100 passengers in 2012. For sensitivity reasons, alternative WADPs are estimated for the 3209 traffic flows not including North Africa and for (forecasted) future air traffic demand in 2020. The results for Tripoli International Airport are benchmarked against competing hub locations, such as Algiers, Cairo, and the major European airports. We conclude by discussing the implications of the current and anticipated future security and economic situation in the country.     

The geography of air freight: connections to U.S. metropolitan economies

Despite the rapid growth of air freight shipments, much of the existing literature on the geography of air transportation has paid more attention to passenger travel than air freight. The purpose of this paper is to elevate our understanding of air freight by determining which specific variables most influence and shape the geographic distribution of air freight by metropolitan area using stepwise regression analysis. The empirical results suggest a regression model of five independent variables was the most parsimonious solution where the final model accounted for 71.1% of the variation in air freight shipments by metropolitan area (MA). The most important predictor was the traffic shadow effect, where less populated MAs under the traffic shadow of larger MAs tended to generate lower levels of freight. The model also suggested that other key predictors included the employment market share in transportation-shipping-logistics industries, per capita personal income, the number of medical diagnostic and supplier establishments, and above average wages in high technology. Overall, metropolitan markets with diverse and efficient ground support systems, freight forwarders and other transportation services, a more affluent population, an intense agglomeration of medical laboratories and related suppliers, and a well paid skilled workforce engaged in computer systems design and electronic product manufacturing are more likely to ship freight by air.     

基于Holt-Winter模型的铁路货运量预测研究

建立Holt-Winter预测模型，将具有线性趋势、季节变动和随机波动的时间序列进行分解研究，并与指数平滑法相结合，分别对长期趋势、趋势的增量和季节波动做出估计。介绍该模型的3个平滑方程和1个预测公式，以及初始值的计算和最优加权系数值的确定。通过实证分析，将预测结果与常用模型进行比较，说明该模型的预测精度较高。     

铁路货物输送过程组织方法的研究

分析了我国目前铁路货物输送过程组织中存在的运到期限“不可知”问题,提出了基于我国现行铁路运输组织方式的货物输送过程的组织方法,论述了货物输送过程组织计划的编制方法,并通过对昆明铁路局米轨的应用情况的分析,论证了该组织方法具有实际可行性。     

铁路货运量组合预测模型的研究

铁路货运量预测作为铁路运输生产的基础工作之一,是铁路运输企业制定正确市场营销战略的前提条件。传统的预测方法已经不能适应日益复杂的运量预测需要,因此借鉴国内各种运输方式的运量预测方法,并与铁路的特点相结合,提出适应我国铁路情况的多种预测方法相结合的组合预测模型体系和方法,并通过实例计算,得出2003年—2005年铁路货运量的预测结果。     

中鼎物流园C区商品车仓库管理系统设计研究

中鼎物流园C区作为中鼎物流园的重要组成部分,主要用于商品车的仓储,目前主要依靠手工操作来完成商品车的出库、入库、盘库、移库等操作。根据中鼎物流园C区商品车需求,对商品车仓库管理系统总体架构进行设计,实现各仓库可视化管理、商品车统一调拨、数据统一查询等功能。在此基础上,针对云仓功能和仓库管理功能2个子系统进行分析,实现对商品车的仓储管理及不同地点的多个商品车仓库之间的调拨与可视化管理。实践表明,商品车仓库管理系统可以有效保证库存准确率,大幅提高工作效率。     

Assessing policy measures for the stimulation of intermodal transport: a GIS-based policy analysis

Intermodal transport is the combination and integration of several transport modes (such as rail, inland waterways with road transport). In order to make the transhipment easy and efficient standard loading units are used, such as containers or swap-bodies. As for the main haul, more environmental friendly modes are used (rail and inland waterways) and a modal shift towards these modes can help in reducing the congestion. Therefore several policies are directed to stimulate the intermodal transport market.In this paper, a location analysis model for Belgian intermodal terminals (LAMBIT) is developed and used to assess different policy measures in Belgium. The simulations show that the different policy measures oriented towards the rail/road and inland waterways/road combinations should be incorporated in a coherent, integrated vision, in order to not create a modal shift between the different intermodal transport options. The methodology can easily be extended towards a European scale.     

鲍摩-瓦尔夫模型在物流配送中心选址中的应用

物流配送中心是物流系统的重要组成部分,选址更是配送中心规划中至关重要的环节,合理的配送中心选址可以有效降低配送中心的运营成本和建造成本.鲍摩-瓦尔夫模型不仅考虑了运输成本,而且还考虑了可变成本和固定成本,因此可按其求解方法进行求解.通过实例计算,得到较好效果.最后指出该模型存在的缺点.     

竞争性综合运输中公路货运定价的研究

利用双层优化方法,将公路货运企业的经营目标函数和客户的选择函数统一考虑,分析了在客户选择最优基础上的公路货运定价问题,通过构建模型,求解得到货运价格。该价格是满足消费者福利剩余最大化的价格,有利于社会资源的优化配置和公路货运企业、综合运输市场的发展。