产业集群中创新行为主体知识共享策略的演化博弈分析

产业集群的创新过程是集群中的创新行为主体在政府政策引导与支持下,通过彼此深度合作,实现知识创造的过程,也是知识在整个产业集群中的转移、共享、吸收与利用的过程。创新行为主体间的知识共享是集群创新的关键。分析了产业集群中创新行为主体知识共享的内涵,运用演化博弈理论,构建产业集群中企业、高校与科研机构、政府在知识共享策略中的复制动态博弈模型,分析了企业、高校与科研机构在政府监管条件下采取知识共享策略的动态演化过程,并对博弈结果进行分析。     

基于微分博弈的发电商报价模型及其分析

基于微分博弈原理,构建了发电商报价动态模型,在运用Hamilton—Jacobi—Bellman方法对其进行求解基础上,针对3家发电商的情况进行了数值仿真分析。分析表明：高边际成本的发电商报价策略的动态均衡会大于其Coumot-Nash均衡,而边际成本较低的发电商报价策略的动态均衡略低于CoumotoNash均衡;随贴现率的增大,发电商的均衡报价策略会经历由递增到递减的变化过程,而学习速度对发电商报价策略的影响则是相反的;当贴现率与学习速度同时变化时,对市场出清价的局部影响较为复杂,但当两者同时逐渐增大时,发电商报价策略的动态均衡会逐渐稳定在较高水平。     

市场化减排政策对我国钢铁行业的影响——基于偏均衡建模的分析

论文运用偏均衡建模的方法,分析了市场化减排政策对于我国钢铁行业竞争力的影响。论文采用基于减排技术组合的减排成本曲线,分析了不同的障碍情景下,引入市场化减排政策对于钢铁价格、进出口价格、进出口量、净出口、利润和排放等关键参数的影响。文章发现市场化减排政策尽管可以大幅度地降低CO2排放量,但是对钢铁行业的竞争力存在一定程度的负面影响,主要体现在净出口和利润的降低。而降低减排技术的采用障碍会弱化减排政策实施对钢铁行业的负面效果。此外,通过对两种边境调节措施的分析（出口补贴和进口品征税）发现,出口补贴政策对于行业净出口和利润的积极作用非常微弱,相较而言进口品征税政 策对于行业净出口和利润的提高作用更为明显,但同时二者均会轻微的削弱减排效果。     

发电公司的合作竞价策略研究

运用博弈论中的纳什均衡原理,通过构造发电公司的竞价博弈模型,研究发电公司的合作竞价策略。通过分析得出,在静态博弈中发电公司的合作竞价博弈可能是一个囚徒困境博弈或斗鸡博弈,也可能是一个智猪博弈,这主要取决于各发电公司成本之间的差异以及市场的最高报价限制。虽然在静态博弈中合作竞价是不稳定的,但在动态博弈中,发电公司之间有可能通过合作达到集体理性。最后根据分析所得出的结论提出了相应的政策建议。     

High animal welfare standards in the EU and international trade – How to prevent potential ‘low animal welfare havens’?

Future costs of compliance with obligatory animal welfare standards in the EU for poultry and egg production are significant and may lead to relocation of production to third countries. After an overview of different rationales for complementary policies to prevent relocation, this article systematically compares such policies. Some policies, like multilateral agreements and labelling, may be supporting, but may not be able to prevent relocation comprehensively. Compensatory payments to domestic producers, in contrast, are effective but disadvantage third country producers that comply with equivalent standards. Therefore, tariff discrimination may be a better alternative. A major drawback of tariff discrimination, however, is its severe institutional requirements. Future research questions include quantification of potential relocation as well as transaction costs of various complementary policies.     

Pseudo-Generic Products and Barriers to Entry in Pharmaceutical Markets

This paper examines incentives for brand-name pharmaceutical producers to market pseudo-generic versions of their own branded products upon the expiry of patent protection.Using a two-stage game model, we determine that under plausible demand and cost conditions, brand-name incumbents can find it profitable to produce pseudo-generics as a means of blocking rivals' entry even when independent firms producing true generics face low entry costs.The model shows that social welfare can be higher when firms use pseudo-generics instead of capacity for entry deterrence as long as substitutability between brand-name and generic products is sufficiently high.     

制度倾斜、低技术锁定与中国经济增长

本文试图回答熊彼特创造性破坏理论在中国为何难以成立的问题。通过建立垄断企业与非垄断企业的博弈模型,我们证明了:对垄断厂商在制度与政策上的倾斜,会削弱非垄断企业进行创新的动力。进一步地,这会使得非垄断企业减少研发人员投入并增大其成为垄断厂商中间制品生产者的概率,同时使垄断厂商成为创新主导者的概率增大,于是创新对经济增长的贡献减少,最终使得经济增长主要是通过资本投入实现。在上述情况下,内生性的技术创新出现的频率会大大降低。这正是中国特色低技术锁定存在的根本性因素。     

Industrial policy and duopolistic trade with dynamic demand

The authors study strategic trade policy in the framework of an explicit dynamic game in which home and foreign duopolists compete in a third-country market for non-competitive rents. Dynamics are introduced on the demand side by assuming demand for the product depends on past consumption of that good. The analysis demonstrates that the perfect equilibrium of the dynamic game can be replicated by a conjectural variations equilibrium, and that optimal policy requires a tax on exports.     

中国钢铁产业的集中度、布局与结构优化研究--兼评2005年钢铁产业发展政策

钢铁产业的产业集中度和空间布局是关系产业竞争力的两个重要方面，提高产业集中度和优化空间布局．是中国钢铁产业实现可持续发展的主要任务。本文通过建立相关的模型和数据测算．分析我国钢铁产业集中度和空间布局的变化，发现我国钢铁产业的生产集中度和空间集中度不仅很低．而且在2001年以来还在不断降低。研究显示，我国钢铁产业的空间布局呈现以市场指向为主、兼资源依托型之格局，临海港口型特征不明显。对三种不同类型的空间布局绩效的比较研究发现．临海港口型的空间布局应是我国钢铁产业布局的主要合理方向。论文对2005年新颁布的《钢铁产业发展政策》作了相应的分析和评论，探讨了产业政策的真正意义．主张作为产业政策不适宜对市场作具体数量的规定。     

Moving toward the EU or the Middle East? An assessment of alternative Turkish foreign policies utilizing the GTAP framework

This paper assesses the new orientation in Turkish foreign policy towards the Arab world by analyzing the potential impact of Turkey’s membership in either the European Union (EU) or the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA). We utilize the most recent version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, its global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and the gravity border effect approach to estimate the ad-valorem tariff equivalents (AVEs) of non-tariff barriers (NTBs). In our overall analysis, we account for 24 various sectors. However, in our evaluation, we focus primarily on the food and agricultural sectors because this sector is characterized by high tariff and non-tariff protection. In the CGE simulation analysis, we consider the removal of tariffs and NTBs simultaneously. After projecting the GTAP framework to 2020, we conclude that Turkey would gain unambiguously from EU membership, whereas Turkey’s gains from GAFTA membership would be more limited. The paper also presents that the welfare gains from the removal of NTBs are of considerable importance and would generally be greater than the gains stemming from the elimination of import tariffs.     

中国钢铁企业的相对效率与规模效率

本文采用数据包络分析法(DEA)对中国57家重点大中型钢铁联合企业的相对效率和规模效率进行实证研究,研究表明:这些企业在效率上存在显著差异,并且不少企业效率低下,我国钢铁工业优胜劣汰的竞争机制相对缺乏;大型和特大型钢铁企业相对中小型钢铁企业而言并不具备显著的效率优势,多数大型和特大型钢铁企业效率并不高;重点大中型钢铁联合企业中大部分企业是规模有效或者接近于规模有效的,规模效率并不是影响大中型钢铁企业生产经营效率的主要因素。进一步的研究表明,钢铁联合企业的规模对效率几乎没有什么影响,我国钢铁工业并不存在显著规模经济特征。相关部门应该将政策重点从扩大企业规模转移到建立并维护公平竞争和优胜劣汰的市场竞争机制上来。     

Telecommunications and the UK government

The first article in this series reviewed the nature of the UK Post Office's monopoly, its relations with government and a number of forces for change. Since then (September 1977), the UK government has published: the government's response to the Carter Committee's proposals; an appendix to the Carter Report; and a ‘White Paper’ concerning all nationalized industries. This article reviews the government's response to the Carter Committee against the background of the evidence submitted to the Committee, the government's overall policy towards nationalized industries and the political debate concerning that policy. Finally, subsequent political and union responses to the government's telecommunications policy are reported which may result in considerable change.     

Dynamic supply chain coordination under consignment and vendor-managed inventory in retailer-centric B2B electronic markets

This study examines the dynamic performance of vertically decentralized two-echelon channel coordination for deteriorating goods under consignment and vendor-managed inventory (VMI) contracts with revenue sharing from retailer-centric business-to-business transactions in both traditional markets and electronic markets (EMs). The research presents the profit-maximization problem and devises a method for making cross-enterprise dynamic joint decisions by combining calculus with dynamic programming for a retailer-led Stackelberg supply chain under cooperative and non-cooperative game settings over a multi-period planning horizon. The applicability of the proposed model is assessed using a case study involving a highly perishable product, sliced raw fish, in a supply chain comprising a regional seafood supplier and a local store belonging to a large national retail chain. The analytical results show that, in a cooperative setting, the EM with a consigned revenue-sharing VMI contract tends to achieve lower retail prices, larger stock quantity, improved channel efficiency, and increases in both retailer and supplier profits through an additional one-part tariff. Additionally, consumers benefit from lower retail prices and society benefits from increased overall channel profits in the cooperative channel and EM.     

The dynamics of industrial concentration in Australian manufacturing

A dynamic model of concentration is developed, with incomplete and industry-specific adjustment to deviations of concentration from its steady state. Cross-sectional analysis is carried out against a sample of 102 Australian manufacturing industries at the Australian Standard Industrial Classification (ASIC) four-digit level over the period 1977/78–1984/85. The estimated adjustment is faster than found in studies of the more mature industrial economies and this adjustment is found to significantly increase with reductions in tariff protection. There is also empirical support for John Sutton's argument that the relationship between concentration and market size depends on whether set-up costs are exogenous.     

Hedging House Price Risk in China

The increasing risk associated with China's housing prices is globally recognized. However, hedging this risk is challenging because of a lack of financial derivatives on China's housing assets. We suggest that the short sale of futures contracts for construction raw materials, i.e., iron ore or/and steel, can act as useful tools to hedge the systematic risk of China's new home price. We first present evidence that there is a strong and stable correlation between changes in China's housing prices and global steel/iron ore prices. Using a hedging strategy model, we then show that, during the sample period between 2009 and 2015, 20.6% of the total unpredicted variance in Chinese housing prices can be hedged by shorting rebar and iron ore futures. We further examine this strategy with an event study based on the announcement of the “home‐purchase restriction” policy in April, 2010. The cumulative abnormal returns show that both steel and iron ore prices reacted significantly to this negative shock, and therefore the proposed strategy could substantially help investors offset losses in the housing market. We finally provide some evidences that this strategy can also help investors in specific regional housing markets, or the resale housing markets.     

中国钢铁工业景气指数的开发与应用研究

钢铁工业作为基础原材料工业其发展态势将直接影响国民经济的运行，因此，对钢铁工业的监测预测具有十分重要的现实意义。国际上已利用了钢铁工业指数对钢铁工业进行有效的监测预测，而我国对钢铁工业的监测预测工作刚刚起步。我们通过多方面收集与钢铁工业有关的月度经济指标，利用时差相关分析等方法从中筛选出钢铁工业的先行、一致和滞后指标，并利用国际上先进的合成指数(Composite Index，CI)方法构建了我国钢铁工业的景气指数，以期为政府、钢铁企业及相关部门准确判断钢铁工业发展形势，有效预测钢铁工业的未来发展动向，正确制定相关的宏观经济调控方向、力度及经营方针提供一定的依据。     

The Effect of Industry Concentration on Free Riding

The conventional wisdom regarding industry concentration and cooperative behavior has not been fully supported by the empirical literature. This paper develops a game-theoretic model to explain these mixed results. In the context of an industry that lobbies the government for tariff protection, the model shows that the difficulty of enforcing a cooperative agreement is a function of not only the number of firms in the industry but also the rate of return to lobbying. Thus, when the rate of return to lobbying expenditures is high, the expected relationship may break down.     

WTO negotiations on agriculture and the distributional impacts for US rice farm households

The policies of wealthy countries have proven the most difficult to reform in the WTO Doha Round negotiations. Considerable emphasis has been placed on developing country impacts, but a gap in the literature remains on the stakes for rich country farmers despite the large role these countries play in global agricultural protection. The research here considers the particular case of US rice households and their sensitivity to Japanese market access reform. Using an applied general equilibrium model with multiple farm households we highlight the distributional impacts among these producers. We argue that concessions to Japan on market access make domestic reforms in rice a difficult political sale in the US since the wealthiest producers bear the largest losses. Improving our understanding of the distributional impacts and political realities of the richest countries is critical to informing the negotiating process because the gains to the world’s poor can only be realized with creative policy redress in these rich nations.     

The distributional effect of the rice policy in Japan, 1986–2010

This study aims to evaluate the distributional effect of the governmental rice policy in Japan on producers, consumers, and government expenditures from 1986 to 2010 using a partial equilibrium model. Policy measures include government purchase of rice, output payment, and acreage control. The simulation result shows that acreage control has been the principal policy measure for transferring income to producers, especially since the enforcement of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. Acreage control is the policy measure with the lowest total efficiency and highest budgetary efficiency. This result implies that the government’s goal of transferring income to producers with minimum government cost has been achieved through a combination of policy measures.     

Models for telecommunications strategy in the LDCs

Telecommunications administrators in the less developed countries are faced with a number of complex strategic policy issues. The author argues that current planning procedures do not provide an adequate aid to decision making. A more sophisticated approach is suggested based on corporate planning models and a prototype model is described in detail. Some sample applications of this model are presented to illustrate the value of the approach to specific problems, including the areas of tariff policy and the growth rate of rural telecommunications.