On the importance of systematic risk factors in explaining the cross-section of corporate bond yield spreads

In this paper we examine the importance of systematic equity market factors in explaining the cross-sectional variation in yield spreads on corporate debt. Based on a sample of 1771 corporate bonds over the period from January 1985 to March 1998, we find that once the default-related variables are controlled for, bond betas or sensitivities to aggregate equity market risks have very limited explanatory power. This is in contrast to [Elton, E.J., Gruber, M.J., 2001. Explaining the rate spread on corporate bonds. Journal of Finance 56, 247–277] who find that market factors tied to expected returns are predominantly important, but who do not control for these variables (i.e. the relevant variables from structural models), possibly biasing their estimates. On the other hand, our finding that the systematic factors exhibit some limited explanatory power suggests that the standard contingent claims approach may not fully apply. This finding is consistent with previous research that bond betas are not completely irrelevant once market frictions are introduced. Overall, the evidence provides empirical support for the proposition that structural models capture important elements of corporate bond yield spread determination and equity market systematic factors are by no means predominant.     

Dispersion in news sentiment and corporate bond returns

We construct a news sentiment index at the firm level by using textual analysis of news articles and find that dispersion in news sentiment is a significant predictor of corporate bond returns. Bonds of firms with high dispersion in news sentiment have a highly significant average return of 7.38 percent. A portfolio that longs bonds with high dispersion in news sentiments and shorts bonds with low dispersion earns an average biweekly return of 8.53 percent. This finding is in line with an argument that dispersion in news sentiment is a proxy for future cash flow uncertainty.     

Corporate debt and unconventional monetary policy: The risk-taking channel with bond and loan contracts

We investigate the effects of unconventional monetary policies on corporate debt through the risk-taking channel using corporate bond and syndicated loan contracts from 2000 to 2016 in Japan. In this period, the policy rate remained fixed near the zero bound. Using the daily changes in the yield curve on monetary policy meeting days, we identify one call rate shock and two unconventional monetary policy shocks that do not affect short-term rates. We find that QE shocks, which move all medium-to-long-term rates, increase the maturity of debt contracts, especially for syndicated loans. In addition, such QE shocks decrease the size of corporate bonds with short maturity. On the other hand, QQE shocks, which raise medium-term rates and lower long-term rates, decrease the size of loans and corporate bonds with longer maturity. These effects imply the existence of the risk-taking channel of unconventional monetary policy: it stimulates investment in longer-maturity assets and decreases investment in assets with lower yields. Our findings show that unconventional policies affect debt contracts even in an extremely low interest rate environment.     

Corporate bond liquidity and yield spreads: A review

Secondary market illiquidity is an important non-default factor affecting yield spreads. Yet, a review of the literature suggests the findings are mixed, both regarding the relative size of the default versus non-default components as well as the relative importance of liquidity premium for investment-grade and high-yield bonds. While in theory country and currency risk might affect international bonds' yield spreads, empirical findings show that international corporate bonds pricing and liquidity are generally affected by the same factors as the U.S. market. We identify several other areas of disagreement and challenges in the literature that warrant further research.     

Illiquidity or credit deterioration: A study of liquidity in the US corporate bond market during financial crises

We investigate whether liquidity is an important price factor in the US corporate bond market. In particular, we focus on whether liquidity effects are more pronounced in periods of financial crises, especially for bonds with high credit risk, using a unique data set covering more than 20,000 bonds, between October 2004 and December 2008. We employ a wide range of liquidity measures and find that liquidity effects account for approximately 14% of the explained market-wide corporate yield spread changes. We conclude that the economic impact of the liquidity measures is significantly larger in periods of crisis, and for speculative grade bonds.     

An agent-based model of corporate bond trading

We construct an heterogeneous agent-based model of the corporate bond market and calibrate it against US data. The model includes the interactions between a market maker, three types of fund, and cash investors. In general, the sensitivity of the market maker to demand and the degree to which momentum traders are active strongly influence the over- and under-shooting of yields in response to shocks, while investor behaviour plays a comparatively smaller role. Using the model, we simulate experiments of relevance to two topical issues in this market. Firstly, we show that measures to reduce the speed with which investors can redeem investments can reduce the extent of yield dislocation. Secondly, we find the unexpected result that a larger fraction of funds using passive investment strategies increases the tail risk of large yield dislocations after shocks.     

Unconventional monetary policies and the corporate bond market

The paper uses a reduced-form vector autoregressive framework to study the effects of quantitative easing and operation “twist”, as well as a conventional monetary expansion, on corporate bond yields and spreads. We construct rating- and maturity-based weekly bond portfolios using TRACE and simulate monetary policies as shocks to the Treasury yield curve. We find that none of the policies can persistently lower corporate spreads, and that operation twist is the only policy capable of lowering corporate yields. This latter finding can be accounted for by the operation twist’s ability to keep the monetary base constant and, therefore, to flatten the riskless yield curve without generating inflationary expectations.     

A macro-financial analysis of the euro area sovereign bond market

We estimate the ‘fundamental’ component of euro area sovereign bond yield spreads, i.e. the part of bond spreads that can be justified by country-specific economic factors, euro area economic fundamentals, and international influences. The yield spread decomposition is achieved using a multi-market, no-arbitrage affine term structure model with a unique pricing kernel. More specifically, we use the canonical representation proposed by Joslin et al. (2011) and introduce next to standard spanned factors a set of unspanned macro factors, as in Joslin et al. (forthcoming). The model is applied to yield curve data from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain over the period 2005–2013. Overall, our results show that economic fundamentals are the dominant drivers behind sovereign bond spreads. Nevertheless, shocks unrelated to the fundamental component of the spread have played an important role in the dynamics of bond spreads since the intensification of the sovereign debt crisis in the summer of 2011.     

Dancing in Shackles: Clawback and corporate innovation

This paper examines how clawback provisions, as an ex-post penalty scheme, affect corporate innovation intensity and strategies. On the one hand, innovation activities decline after clawback adoptions. On the other hand, clawback adopters tend to conduct fewer exploitative innovations but more exploratory innovations. These results hold for both voluntary clawback adoptions and mandatory clawback adoptions. The results support the capital market pressure hypothesis, which posits that after clawback adoption, managers become more careful about research and development spending and shift to exploratory innovations to meet capital markets’ expectations.     

Determinants of corporate debt securities in the Euro area

Abstract

This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of corporate debt securities in the euro area. The financing costs, as approximated by the cost of debt securities vis-à-vis other sources of corporate finance, and financing needs, as captured by mergers and acquisitions and gross domestic product, are found to be significant determinants in the short and long run. The empirical results are also supportive of substitution between debt security and internal financing unrelated to cost of differentials in the short run and of differences in the determination of long- and short-term debt securities. These findings are robust across different samples and specifications.     

The market for corporate control and the cost of debt

How do bondholders view the existence of an open market for corporate control? Between 1985 and 1991, 30 states in the U.S. enacted business combination (BC) laws, raising the cost of corporate takeovers. Relying on these exogenous events, we estimate the influence of the market for corporate control on the cost of debt. We identify different channels through which an open market for corporate control can benefit or harm bondholders: a reduction in managerial slack or the “quiet life,” resulting in higher profitability and firm value; a coinsurance effect, in which firms become less risky after being acquired; and an increasing leverage effect, in which bondholder wealth is expropriated through leverage-increasing takeovers. Consistent with the first two mechanisms, we find that the cost of debt rose after the passage of the BC laws; moreover, it rose sharply for firms in non-competitive industries, and for firms rated speculative-grade. In contrast, there is virtually no effect for firms in competitive industries, or firms rated investment-grade.     

Official rotation and corporate innovation: Evidence from the governor rotation

Rotation is a practice whereby officials are regularly moved between equally ranked positions. Focusing on governor rotation, this paper examines the effect of official rotation on corporate innovation in China. First, we find that official rotation significantly promotes corporate innovation, including enterprises’ innovation investment, quantity, and quality. Second, we find that the effect of official rotation on corporate innovation varies because of official and regional heterogeneity. Officials rotating from other provinces significantly stimulate corporate innovation, but officials rotating from the central government have an insignificant influence on corporate innovation. In addition, officials rotating to non-eastern regions significantly enhance corporate innovation, while officials rotating to eastern regions have a negligible impact on corporate innovation. We further examine the driving mechanism behind the effect of official rotation on corporate innovation and find that officials rotating from eastern regions to non-eastern regions can significantly promote corporate innovation, but officials rotating from non-eastern regions to eastern regions do not boost corporate innovation. These findings imply that the different effects of official rotation on corporate innovation are due to the official experience effect. We also find that official rotation can promote corporate innovation through reducing corporate charitable donations and increasing corporate innovation subsidies. In a supplementary analysis, we find that GDP-oriented performance appraisal pressure weakens the effect of official rotation on corporate innovation. The lower the pressure on officials regarding their performance, the more significant the effect of official rotation on corporate innovation. In addition, official rotation can significantly promote the development of the regional economy and improve the GDP growth rate via corporate innovation, which is a micro-level economic growth effect of official rotation. Overall, our findings further verify the economic effect of official rotation and extend our understanding of the influencing factors of corporate innovation from the perspective of the official governance system. Our findings also have clear policy implications for how the government can improve the official governance model to promote corporate innovation during the transition period of the national innovation system.     

The impact of the corporate balanced scorecard on corporate control—A research note

The paper explores the adoption of the corporate balanced scorecard (CBSC) and its impact on corporate control of business units. Following interviews with senior corporate managers in 15 of Sweden's largest multinational companies, 8 were found to adopt CBSC. However, CBSC had little impact on control at the corporate level. Corporate control was financially focused in all the companies: mainly financial measures were important, standards were only set for financial measures and rewards were largely based on financial performance measures. Top management's need for simplicity and comparability internally, and capital market pressures motivated the financial focus.     

State ownership and the cost of debt: Evidence from corporate bond issuances in China

Corporate credit risk can be reduced through implicit government guarantees. State-owned enterprises (SOEs) in China provide a distinctive setting to investigate government roles in corporate debt financing. We find that non-SOEs’ corporate bond issuance costs are significantly higher than those of SOEs. We also observe relatively lower bond issuance costs for firms controlled by the central government (CSOEs) than those controlled by local governments (LSOEs). In addition, we demonstrate that compared with SOEs, non-SOEs’ financial constraints are mitigated to a larger extent after the bond issuances. Overall, we show that state ownership plays an important role in determining corporate bond issuance costs.     

Corporate bond liquidity before and after the onset of the subprime crisis

We analyze liquidity components of corporate bond spreads during 2005-2009 using a new robust illiquidity measure. The spread contribution from illiquidity increases dramatically with the onset of the subprime crisis. The increase is slow and persistent for investment grade bonds while the effect is stronger but more short-lived for speculative grade bonds. Bonds become less liquid when financial distress hits a lead underwriter and the liquidity of bonds issued by financial firms dries up under crises. During the subprime crisis, flight-to-quality is confined to AAA-rated bonds.     

公司债券的多头监管、路径依赖与未来发展框架

公司债券市场受益外因的蓬勃发展更应激发对其自身可持续发展内力的探索。改变公司债券只是作为政府配置信贷资源手段的定位,授予企业根据财务需求安排债务融资的权利;协调三部委主导不同债券规则的多头监管,建立统一合理的监管体制;改变计划性的债券规则和分割的债券市场,建立市场化的统一债券规则和交易机制,是未来我国公司债券市场走向繁荣的必由之路。     

Common risk factors in the cross-section of corporate bond returns

We investigate the cross-sectional determinants of corporate bond returns and find that downside risk is the strongest predictor of future bond returns. We also introduce common risk factors based on the prevalent risk characteristics of corporate bonds—downside risk, credit risk, and liquidity risk—and find that these novel bond factors have economically and statistically significant risk premiums that cannot be explained by long-established stock and bond market factors. We show that the newly proposed risk factors outperform all other models considered in the literature in explaining the returns of the industry- and size/maturity-sorted portfolios of corporate bonds.     

The use of credit default swaps by bond mutual funds: Liquidity provision and counterparty risk

Corporate bond mutual funds increased their selling of credit protection in the credit default swaps (CDS) market during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. This trading activity was primarily in multi-name CDS, greater among larger and established funds, and directed toward counterparty dealers in financial distress. Funds that sold credit protection during the crisis experienced greater credit market risk and superior post-crisis performance, consistent with higher expected returns from liquidity provision. Funds using Lehman Brothers as a counterparty experienced abnormal outflows and returns of –2% immediately following Lehman's bankruptcy, suggesting that funds’ opportunistic trading in CDS exposed investors to counterparty risk.     

The Mills Ratio and the behavior of redeemable bond prices in the Gaussian structural model of corporate default

This paper shows that forward default intensities in the Black and Cox (1976) model of corporate default can be expressed in terms of the Mills Ratio (Mills, 1926). The behaviour of the forward default intensity and hence the survivorship functions then follows from inequalities that are satisfied by this ratio. This allows me to analyze the effect of the firm’s distance to default, growth rate and volatility upon the value of its debt. These results can be used to analyze the comparative static properties of other models of corporate default and perhaps other first passage time models.     

Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds

We use the financial crisis of 2007–2009 as a laboratory to examine the costs and benefits of teams versus single managers in asset management. We find that when a fund uses complex trading strategies involving the use of CDS team-managed funds outperform solo-managed funds. This may be due to the greater diversity of expertise, experience and skill of teams relative to single managers. During the financial crisis, however, the performance premium of teams becomes negative, which may be because of the slower decision times of teams, which are especially costly during times of rapidly changing market conditions.