Stock reaction to dividend savings of convertible preferred calls: Free cash flow or price pressure effects?

Calls of in-the-money convertible preferred stock typically induce dividend savings for the firm, since preferred dividends exceed common stock dividends. Prior research finds that these savings are negatively related to stock returns at call announcement and argues that the market expects managers to abuse the increased free cash flow. This paper finds that dividend savings are closely related to call size, suggesting other explanations. Larger calls experience a more negative announcement reaction. Consistent with temporary liquidity effects, there is a price reversal during the conversion period, which is greater for larger calls.     

Corporate fraud and bank loans: Evidence from china

Receiving punishment from regulators for corporate fraud can affect financing contracts between a firm and its bank, as both the firm’s credit risk and information risk increase after punishment. By focusing on Chinese firms’ borrowing behavior after events of corporate fraud, we find that firms’ bank loans after punishment are not only significantly lower, but are also less than those for non-fraudulent firms. In addition, loan interest rates after punishment are not only higher than before, but also higher than those for their non-fraudulent counterparts. In addition, we find that corporate fraud indirectly destabilizes the “performance-bank loan” relationship. Our results suggest that corporate fraud negatively affects a firm’s ability to source debt financing, which provides new evidence about the economic consequences of fraud.     

An empirical assessment of reinsurance risk

We analyse the effect of failing reinsurance cover on the stability of Dutch insurers. As insurers often reinsure themselves with other (re)insurers, a firm's loss could spread contagiously through the sector. Using a unique and confidential data set on reinsurance exposures, we gain insight into the reinsurance market structure and perform a scenario analysis to measure contagion risks. Considering entities on a standalone basis, we find no evidence of systemic risk in the Netherlands, even if multiple reinsurance companies fail simultaneously. At group level our analysis points to the contagion risk of in-house reinsurance structures, given that such in-house reinsurance parties are generally not higher capitalised than other group members.     

Alternative models for hedging yield curve risk: An empirical comparison

We test alternative models of yield curve risk by hedging US Treasury bond portfolios through note/bond futures. We show that traditional implementations of models based on principal component analysis, duration vectors and key rate duration lead to high exposure to model errors and to sizable transaction costs, thus lowering the hedging quality. Also, this quality randomly varies from one model and hedging problem to the other. We show that accounting for the variance of modeling errors substantially reduces both hedging errors and transaction costs for all considered models. Additionally, it leads to much more stable weights in the hedging portfolios and – as a result – to more homogeneous hedging quality. On this basis, error-adjusted principal component analysis is found to systematically and significantly outperform alternative models.     

Do Japanese banks lead or follow international business? An empirical investigation

Although many precedent studies analyze the factors that promote the internationalization of banks, we have no empirical evidence answering the question as to whether banks follow or lead the manufacturing industries. In this paper, we investigate empirically whether Japanese banks are leaders or followers of the manufacturing industries in the process of internationalization. Using the Granger causality test based on Hsiao's (Hsiao, 1979, 1981) sequential test procedures, we find that Japanese banks have led Japanese manufacturing industries in the process of internationalization in Asia and Oceania and that banks have followed the manufacturing industries in the Near East. Furthermore, there is no clear causality in North America and Europe. The banks' leadership in Asia and Oceania seems to demonstrate that Japanese banks have comparative advantage against host-country competitors in these regions, while Japanese banks seem to enter US or European financial centers in order to avoid domestic regulations.     

Stock market volatility and the crash of 1987: evidence from six emerging markets

This paper studies volatility, risk premia and the persistence of volatility in six emerging stock markets before and after the 1987 stock market crash. The empirical investigation is conducted by means of the GARCH in the mean model (GARCH-M) and monthly data from Argentina, Greece, India, Mexico, Thailand, and Zimbabwe between January of 1976 and August of 1994. Results indicate changes in the ARCH parameter, risk premia and persistence of volatility before and after the 1987 crash. But these noted changes are not uniform and depend upon the individual markets. Factors other than the 1987 crash may also be responsible for the changes.     

Good news, bad news and rating announcements: An empirical investigation

In this paper we employ a new approach to test the contribution of information in rating announcements. This is the first study to test and corroborate how the CDS market responds to rating actions after controlling for the presence of concurrent public and private information. We show that since the clustering of rating announcements characterizes economically significant developments, the common practice of using “uncontaminated” samples underestimates market response. As in previous studies, we find that the market response to bad news is stronger than to good news. Nevertheless, bad news and negative rating announcements tend to cluster. Therefore, the residual contribution of negative rating announcements is small and in some cases insignificant. Positive rating announcements are less frequent and less clustered, though their residual contribution is still significant.     

Family control and investment–cash flow sensitivity: Empirical evidence from the Euro zone

This paper considers the ownership structure of family firms to determine whether family control alleviates or exacerbates investment–cash flow sensitivity in the Euro zone. We find that family-controlled corporations have lower investment–cash flow sensitivities. Further, our results show that this reduced sensitivity is mainly attributable to family firms with no deviations between cash flow and voting rights and to family firms in which family members hold managerial positions. We also find that second largest shareholders affect family firms' sensitivity and are associated with either monitoring (non-family second blockholders) or collusion (family second blockholders). Overall, family control seems to mitigate investment inefficiencies that derive from capital market imperfections.     

Investor type trading behavior and trade performance: Evidence from the Thai stock market

This paper examines the trading behavior and decomposes the trading performance of foreign, individual and institutional investors as well as proprietary traders in a dynamic emerging stock market, the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Foreign investors follow a positive feedback, momentum strategy and are good short term market timers but have poor security selection performance in poor markets, thus suggesting that they have a macro (market timing) but not a micro (security selection) informational advantage relative to local investors. Institutions and proprietary traders have poor security selection trading performance. Individuals display herding behavior and have fairly good security selection performance, but individual investors appear to compensate proprietary traders for the provision of short term liquidity by proprietary traders, so individuals' security selection gains are canceled out by market timing losses.     

Local market makers, liquidity and market quality

We examine the role of geographically proximate (local) market makers in providing liquidity and improving the quality of a dealer market. Firms with active participation of local dealers enjoy lower quoted and effective spreads, as well as more informative prices. The beneficial effects from local market makers are not confined to a few “top” local dealers and they cannot be attributed to their participation in the firm's IPO syndicate or industry specialization. Further, we find that days with aggressive bidding from local market makers relative to their non-local counterparts are associated with significant positive abnormal returns, consistent with local market makers possessing information advantages. In summary, our results suggest that the information advantages of local market makers may be a contributing factor to the reduction in the cost of trading.     

The effects of loan portfolio concentration on Brazilian banks’ return and risk

This paper tests whether diversification of the credit portfolio at the bank level leads to better performance and lower risk. We employ a new high frequency (monthly) panel data for the Brazilian banking system with information at the bank level for loans by economic sector. We find that loan portfolio concentration increases returns and also reduces default risk; the impact of concentration on bank’s return is decreasing on bank’s risk; there are significant size effects; foreign and state-owned banks seem to be less affected by the degree of diversification. An important additional finding is that there is an increasing concentration trend after the breakout of the recent international financial crisis, specially after the failure of Lehman Brothers.     

Automation, speed, and stock market quality: The NYSE's Hybrid

Automation and trading speed are increasingly important aspects of competition among financial markets. Yet we know little about how changing a market's automation and speed affects the cost of immediacy and price discovery, two key dimensions of market quality. At the end of 2006 the New York Stock Exchange introduced its Hybrid Market, increasing automation and reducing the execution time for market orders from 10 seconds to less than one second. We find that the change raises the cost of immediacy (bid-ask spreads) because of increased adverse selection and reduces the noise in prices, making prices more efficient.     

Firm- and country-level determinants of corporate leverage: Some new international evidence

This research analyzes the determinants of capital structure across 37 countries. Institutional arrangements matter for capital structure decisions; however, firm-level covariates drive two-thirds of the variation in capital structure across countries, while the country-level covariates explain the remaining one-third. The observed relationships between the country-level determinants and leverage provide strong support to the predictions of both the trade-off and the pecking-order theories. Country-level determinants serve as substitute mechanisms for the firm-level, industry-level, and macroeconomic determinants by moderating their marginal impact on leverage.     

Stock market trading activity and returns around milestones

We study the relation between daily stock market trading activity and the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (DJIA) movement around millenary milestones—numbers that end in three zeros. We find aggregate turnover to be 5% lower when the DJIA level is less than 1% away from the nearest milestone. The effect emerges as the DJIA approaches a milestone from below, and is stronger for first-time milestones compared to subsequent passages. The aggregate price impact is large, such that daily stock returns show a negative abnormal performance of − 10 basis points. Our findings suggest that millenary milestones of the DJIA play a role in some investors' decision making.     

International transmission of information: evidence from the Euroyen and Eurodollar futures markets

This paper examines the information transmission between Japan and the US by using the Tokyo Euroyen and Chicago Eurodollar futures. These two interest rate futures markets provide a better understanding of international information transmission than stock markets, which have been shown to exhibit nonsynchronous trading and market segmentation. The results show that traders in Tokyo (Chicago) use information that is revealed overnight in Chicago (Tokyo). The bivariate EGARCH-t model provides no evidence of volatility spillovers in either direction, suggesting that the opening price rapidly reflects foreign information. The overall results support the hypothesis that the domestic market efficiently adjusts to foreign news. The results are also broadly consistent with the covered interest arbitrage effects.     

Corporate equity ownership, investment, and product market relationships

This paper examines the effect of corporate equity ownership on investment when firms have product market relationships. Firms have incentives to hold long equity positions when their products are complements. These equity positions induce the firms to increase their real investment expenditures. In contrast, firms have incentives to hold short equity positions when their products are substitutes. These short positions commit the firms to a more aggressive product market stance, and also result in increased real investment expenditures. Our model offers an explanation for the empirical relationship between the establishment of corporate equity stakes and increased investment spending documented by Allen and Phillips (2000).     

Return on capital analysis: U.S.-based multinational corporations versus U.S. domestic corporations

We study the difference between U.S.-based multinational corporations (MNCs) and U.S. domestic corporations (DCs) in terms of management efficiency with return on capital as the measure of management efficiency. We use a fixed effect model to account for heterogeneity and/or the time-specific effect and find that MNCs have lower management efficiency than DCs, which holds after we control for the effects of firm size, GDP growth rate, and growth opportunity on management efficiency. One reason for the low efficiency is the MNCs’ inability to manage their assets well relative to DCs. We also find that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between return on capital and degree of internationalization, which implies an optimal degree of internationalization. Our result does not confirm the recently proposed three-stage model.     

Incorporating the dynamics of leverage into default prediction

A firm’s current leverage ratio is one of the core characteristics of credit quality used in statistical default prediction models. Based on the capital structure literature, which shows that leverage is mean-reverting to a target leverage, we forecast future leverage ratios and include them in the set of default risk drivers. An out-of-sample analysis of default predictions from a hazard model reveals that the discriminative power increases substantially when leverage forecasts are included. We further document that credit ratings contain information beyond the one contained in standard variables but that this information is unrelated to forecasts of leverage ratios.     

Determinants of the guarantee circles: The case of Chinese listed firms

China's external capital market has been developing rapidly since the establishment of its stock markets. However, financing from the internal capital market, especially through the guarantee system provided by other associated firms (the guarantee circle), remains significant for some Chinese firms. We analyze the importance associated with the guarantee system in China with a focus on the macro and micro determinants that affect Chinese firms' participation in the guarantee circle. Our findings suggest that both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors have significant impact on a firm's involvement in the guarantee circle. Firms in regions with higher economic growth, less developed banking system and worse legal protection are more likely to receive guarantee from firms associated with the controlling shareholders. On the other hand, firms controlled by the state are less likely to receive guarantee but more likely to provide guarantee, while firms with alternative financing sources are more likely to provide guarantee. Firms within a complex group with more pyramidal layers are more likely to get involved in the guarantee circle, either as a guarantor or a guarantee. Our findings have implications to general guarantee systems with the presence of agency and moral hazard problems.     

On the acquisition of equity carve-outs

We examine the role played by the parent’s motive in undertaking a carve-out; the parent’s post-IPO influence over the carved-out subsidiary; and anti-takeover provisions and industry structure of a carve-out on its acquisition likelihood and its acquisition premium. We find that the probability and hazard of a carve-out acquisition increase when the parent’s objective is to unlock the value of a subsidiary and when the parent and the subsidiary are tied with a product-market relationship. We also find that the post-IPO parent ownership significantly affects the acquisition likelihood and the level of acquisition premium. Additional analyses examining the post-IPO carve-out status suggest that the product-market relationship and post-IPO parent ownership increase the probability of re-acquisition.