Verfügbarkeit von nicht-erneuerbaren Energierohstoffen

Crude oil, natural gas and coal currently are the most important energy sources and will be the backbone of the energy industry for the next few decades to come. The discussion about the future availability of these fossil fuels was revived by the sharp rise in energy prices since 2004 to a record high in mid-2008. This posed a question as to how long non-renewable energy resources may be available in sufficient quantities in the future. The annual report 2010 “Reserves, resources and availability of energy resources” from the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources in Hanover analyses the global situation of crude oil, natural gas, coal, uranium and thorium. The focus is on the analysis of reserves and resources, but also aspects of production, consumption and trade as well as prices are being covered. The main emphasis is put on conventional energy resources, but also non-conventional hydrocarbons are discussed. As a result of the study, the situation for crude oil becomes increasingly critical. From a geological point of view there are still sufficient quantities of natural gas and uranium. Coal has the by far greatest long term potential, but in comparison with other fossil fuels it is more pollute.     

Germany’s Energy Supply

Germany has only very limited domestic energy resources. Seventy percent of primary energy needs must be covered by imports. The markets for energy are marked by a wide diversity and a large number of providers. The oil market has been intensely competitive for decades now. Lignite and hard coal are subjected to fierce substitution competition, especially with natural gas. The natural gas and electricity markets were fully liberalized in 1998. Consumers can freely choose from a vast number of suppliers. Since the beginning of this century, however, state interference particularly in the electricity market has increased. The expansion of renewables has been promoted since the year 2000 by feed-in priority and feed-in remunerations regulated by the state. The energy transition initiated in 2011 is characterized by ambitious energy and climate policy targets. Key pillars include the conversion of electricity generation from production on the basis of conventional energy sources to a system based mainly on renewable energies combined with stringent requirements designed to enhance energy efficiency and what are probably the most ambitious climate protection targets worldwide. As regards the expansion of renewables and the phase-out of nuclear energy, Germany is keeping to its target path. By contrast, there are no signs yet that the objectives formulated in terms of the lowering of primary energy consumption and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be achieved.     

World Energy Council’s Global Energy Scenarios to 2060

Since 1970, global energy consumption has more than doubled. Conventional resources, in particular oil, gas and coal, had a dominant share in supply and covered most of the growth in demand in the past. Even in 2015, these fossil fuels still accounted for more than 80% of global primary energy consumption. The contribution of renewable energies to the total electricity generation was 23% in 2015, the same share as in 1970. Developments in the coming decades will differ substantially, however. Total energy consumption will rise at a much more moderate pace than in the past, e.?g. by up to one third by 2060. Electricity consumption will double during this period. But even this is a considerable slowdown in growth compared with the five-fold increase seen between 1970 and 2015. And, unlike in the past, the emerging rise in consumption will essentially be covered by renewable energy sources. This is true especially for the electricity sector. This comparison with developments in the past shows the extent of the global energy transformation that may be expected in future. These developments are reflected in three global scenarios, which were published by the World Energy Council in October 2016. The results of this flagship study World Energy Scenarios to 2060 are mirrored with the main findings of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the U.S. EIA’s International Energy Outlook. The most important challenge indicated by the results of the mentioned studies is: the transformation, which is expected in the covered scenarios is not sufficient, in order to achieve the target of limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels that was agreed by the international community of states in Paris at the end of 2015. It will be highlighted, which strategies could meet the requirement cost-efficiently—a prerequisite for its success.     

大力降低能源消耗走可持续发展道路

2005年度世界一次能源消费总量为10．537 Gt(油当量),其中石油为3．837 Gt,占36．41％;天然气为2．4．75 Gt,占23．49％;煤炭2．930 Gt,占27．80％;核能0．627 Gt,占5．95％;水电0．669 Gt,占6．35％。中国能源消费形势严峻,2005年中国一次能源消费总量为2 225 Mt标准煤,其中煤炭占68．7％,石油占21．2％,水电和核电占7．3％,天然气占2．8％。中国石化既是能源生产大户也是能源消耗大户,2005年加工原油14．8．80 Mt,炼油综合能耗为68．59 kg(标油)／t,总能耗约10．21 Mt标油,与国外先进水平比较,有较大的差距。根据我国资源与能源紧缺的形势,必须在已取得成绩的基础上,进一步做好节能降耗工作。     

开放的竞争市场维系能源供需均衡——《BP世界能源统计2012》解析

2011年全球能源行业跌宕起伏,但总体数据显示出一如往年的发展轨迹.全球GDP增速为3.7％,略高于2.5％的一次能源消费增长率,GDP增速和能源消费增长与过去10年的平均水平接近.2011年,政治动荡引发石油价格飙升,原油均价创历史新高;石油消费增长疲软,仅增长0.7％;尽管利比亚和其他一些地区的供应中断,在欧佩克增产的带动下,全球石油产量仍然增加了109.6万桶/日(1.3％).2011年全球天然气生产和消费增速均趋于缓和,美国市场一枝独秀,产量创历史新高,欧盟的天然气产量和消费量均为有史以来的最大降幅.煤炭以5.4％的增速再次成为增长最快的化石能源;核能发电量下降4.3％,可再生能源发电量则强劲增长17.7％.2011年,市场以其灵活性成功地应对了大规模供应中断,燃料替换、供需侧的反应以及贸易结构优化发挥了各自的作用,能源价格成为引导能源资源再分配的重要信号.     

提高能效低碳发展携手应对能源挑战——《BP2030世界能源展望》解读

2012年版《BP 2030世界能源展望》显示:到2030年,全球一次能源消费将较2010年增长39％,年均增速为1.6％,几乎所有的(96％)消费增长都来自非经合组织国家.尽管可再生能源增速最快(年均增长8.2％),2030年化石能源仍将在一次能源消费结构中占80％的份额.全球液体燃料(石油、生物燃料和其他液体燃料)2030年需求总量将超过1 03亿桶/日,新增需求(1600万桶/日)几乎全部来自非经合组织国家,并主要由欧佩克和美洲国家的供应来满足.天然气将成为消费增长最快的化石燃料,年均增长为2.1％,液化天然气和非常规气将在供应中发挥重要作用.中印发展速度、规模以及中东的供应能力对2030年全球能源前景意义重大.到2030年,南北美洲将基本实现能源独立,亚太地区的能源缺口却不断扩大.这提醒我们:必须不断提高能源利用效率,降低单位GDP能源强度;加强与其他国家和地区的能源合作;对非常规资源应加强科技攻关和国际合作,实现其科学发展和持续发展;保障能源安全稳定供应并逐步实现低碳发展.     

Analysis of the Potential Economic Viability of Shale Gas Resources in Europe

European countries are currently exploring strategies to ensure a strong level of security of energy supply while decreasing its reliance on natural gas imports. With the strong surge in shale gas developments in the USA, similar ambitions have been the ongoing subject of inquiry in Europe. Detailed knowledge about extraction costs is a key issue in determining future shale gas investments in Europe. The paper at hand analyses the potential of European shale gas resources, highlighting their competitiveness against conventional natural gas. It examines the current volume of shale gas resources in Europe and performs a detailed cost calculation to provide an estimation of shale gas production costs. The results indicate that under current market conditions the repetition of the US shale gas boom is by all measures improbable in Europe. Furthermore, in the case that natural prices were to return to historically higher levels, only a few highly productive shale gas formations would be economically competitive.     

石油、石化企业综合利用煤、油、气资源途径初探

近年来我国原油进口数量急剧增加。石油安全问题引起广泛关注。而我国煤炭与天然气资源相对比较丰富。统筹规划并合理利用煤、油、气资源，通过煤化工、石油炼制、石油化工3个行业技术上的互相借鉴，资源上的互相替代，产业链的互相补充，尽量减少石油的消耗，以减轻对进口原油的依赖。     

福建省中长期能源需求与供应问题研究

分析了福建省能源的资源储量、消费、生产以及运输的情况,指出福建能源发展所面临的主要问题。对福建省中长期能源需求总量以及电力、煤炭、天然气、石油等能源的供需平衡进行了预测和分析,对如何降低福建省能源供给风险,建立安全、稳定、清洁、高效的能源保障体系提出了建议,供有关方面参考。     

Bereitstellung von Regelleistung durch Elektrofahrzeuge: Modellrechnungen für Deutschland im Jahr 2035

The German government has set ambitious goals for both the expansion of renewable energy supply and electromobility. According to its Energiewende policy, electricity supply from fluctuating renewables is supposed to further increase considerably. This will tend to require a greater provision of balancing reserves. At the same time, supply from conventional dispatchable plants, which used to provide the bulk of reserves, will decrease. Against this background, this article analyzes the scope for an assumed fleet of 4.4 million electric vehicles to supply balancing reserves in 2035. Examining two different future power plant scenarios, it explores the potentials of reserve provision with and without the option of feeding electricity from vehicle batteries back to the grid. Results from an extended open-source power system simulation model show that the assumed vehicle fleet can efficiently provide a substantial share of reserve requirements, also in case the vehicle-to-grid option is not available. Arbitrage on wholesale markets, on the other hand, is negligible under basic assumptions. Likewise, total system cost savings are minor when compared to a pure cost-optimal loading of vehicle batteries. Under alternative assumptions on the future power plant portfolio as well as on battery degradation costs, however, wholesale arbitrage, reserve provision, and system cost savings can be substantial.     

能源多元化趋势下煤炭利用发展前景探析

煤炭一直是我国的主要能源。当前,煤炭在我国能源结构中的地位正面临着其他能源形式的挑战。今后化石能源向可再生能源和新能源转变是能源发展的大趋势,目前还处在化石能源与非化石能源并重、能源使用由传统能源向新型能源转变的转型期,煤炭利用在工业化过程中还有很大的发展空间。煤炭行业应当未雨绸缪,大力促进煤炭向工业原料和油气替代品的转化,积极推进煤炭行业的转型升级。     

新疆煤层气开发利用现状分析及对策建议

随着全球能源供应趋紧,能源安全、应对气候变化等问题日益突出,加之美国、加拿大等国煤层气、页岩气开发的巨大成功,世界各国纷纷加快对非常规油气资源的勘探开发。煤层气是近20年在国际上崛起的非常规天然气,新疆煤层气资源丰富,预测资源储量9.51万亿m3,约占全国的26%,开发潜力大,前景广阔,但目前仍处于起步阶段。新疆煤层气开发利用推进缓慢的关键因素在于矿权、资金、技术、成本等方面问题。通过分析新疆煤层气开发利用现状,找出煤层气开发利用中存在的问题,并提出加快新疆煤层气开发利用的对策建议。     

研判行业大势 促进交流合作——《2011年国内外油气行业发展报告》发布会综述

2012年2月9日和15日,中国石油集团经济技术研究院分别在北京、上海两地发布了《2011年国内外油气行业发展报告》。报告显示:2011年,国际政治持续动荡,乱象丛生;世界经济复苏遇阻,危机难解。世界石油供需增速双降,基本面总体偏紧,国际主要基准油价同比大幅攀升,高位徘徊。世界天然气需求平稳较快增长,全球LNG贸易活跃,价格大幅上升。2011年,中国石油消费增速大幅下滑,但石油和原油对外依存度双破55%;天然气表观消费量增速超过20%;炼油能力布局进一步优化,油品质量继续升级;海外油气合作取得明显进展,能源公司国际化程度稳步提升。展望2012,世界石油供需趋于宽松,油价有望总体低于2011年水平,但伊朗问题是影响石油市场的最大不确定因素;天然气供需基本平衡,预计价格呈小幅增长态势。中国成品油需求将稳步增长;天然气消费量有望超过1500亿立方米,在一次能源中的比例超过5%。与会专家建议,加强能源战略研究和产业规划,对成品油价格加快市场化改革,对天然气利用政策进行适当调整,并适时推出天然气管网监管机制。     

全球石油市场艰难平衡 发展风险加大——2019年国内外油气行业发展概述及2020年展望

2019年,布伦特原油期货均价为64.2美元/桶,同比降幅为10.5%,世界石油市场供应和需求艰难平衡;美国对全球石油市场的掌控力和影响力继续加强;全球油气发现储量大幅增长;油气资产交易量减额增,美国页岩油气资产交易首度降温。中国原油和石油对外依存度首次双破70%,成品油出口量首破5000万吨;油气勘探开发行动计划初见成效,估计原油产量为1.91亿吨,同比约增长1.1%,天然气产量为1738亿立方米,同比约增长9.8%;炼油总能力上升至8.6亿吨/年,民企占比明显提高;油气体制改革力度空前。预计2020年国际油价将维持震荡走势,布伦特原油均价为60~65美元/桶;全球天然气供需总体宽松,天然气价格将保持低位运行;勘探开发投资预计为4756亿美元,同比增长7%;新增产能多,需求增长放缓,乙烯业的运行情况不容乐观;美国页岩油气行业资产交易或将重新活跃。中国上游勘探开发投资继续保持历史高位,原油产量有望达到1.94亿吨,天然气产量上升至1900亿立方米;天然气市场化进程将加快推进;炼油能力过剩形势将更加严峻,乙烯行业利润继续收窄。     

从致密油气到页岩油气——中国非常规油气发展之路探析

与国外不同,中国多把致密油气与常规资源放在一起统计.致密油气已在美国和中国油气产储量,特别是待发现资源量构成中占重要地位.由于致密油气开发的成功,中国在水平井和压裂两大技术系列上总体达到国际先进水平,这为煤层气、页岩油气的开发提供了条件.美国页岩气大发展造成气价下跌,这促进了页岩油的发展并使美国的石油产量由长期下降转为上升.中国煤层气发展的教训显示出管理体制不顺和市场环境缺失是阻碍非常规油气发展的首要因素.应尊重不同类型资源共生/伴生的规律,在油气特别是非常规油气发展中倡导综合勘探开发和利用.页岩油气开发在中国研究程度尚很低,不可急于求成,只能在尊重勘探程序的基础上加快发展.     

油气田与风光电力融合发展研究

随着风电和光伏发电成本竞争力越来越强,国家财政补贴退坡、平价上网推进力度也逐步加大,在光伏发电建设管理方面开始实行光伏发电补贴竞价政策。油气田企业自备电网可以通过市场化交易,就近消纳分布式光伏发电和风电,条件非常便利,具有降低用电价格的潜力,同时"绿证"和碳减排指标的降本成效显著。油气田开发过程中推广网电钻井和压裂,油藏在开采后期实施二氧化碳驱、减氧空气驱等三次采油措施,开发利用油区地热资源,以及利用枯竭油气藏埋藏二氧化碳,都将新增大量用电需求。油气田企业依托自备电网、油区道路、土地和市场等优势,发展风光发电业务潜力巨大。在油区部署煤炭地下气化业务的综合优势突出,有望在枯竭油气田基础上开创一项"清洁电力+煤炭地下气化+二氧化碳埋藏"绿色产业,实现油、气、煤化石能源与清洁能源融合发展,促进传统油气田企业向清洁能源生产企业的转型发展。     

2011年国内外油气财税政策综述

2011年,国际油价总体呈现高位震荡的态势,重点资源国继续调整财税政策,加大对油气资源的控制力度;部分消费国下调消费环节税负以应对高油价;一些发达国家出台碳税,以减少对化石能源的使用;美国则继续运用财税政策调节国内油气生产与消费。2011年,我国全面实施资源税改革,完善相关政策法规,同时针对国内油气生产、天然气进口和企业国际化经营等出台了一系列税收优惠政策和措施。“十二五”期间,我国将继续推进税制改革,扩大增值税征收范围,调整消费税征收范围和征税环节,完善企业所得税制度,全面改革资源税,开征环境保护税。     

天然气开启能源新时代——第25届世界天然气大会综述

2012年6月4-8日,第25届世界天然气大会在马来西亚首都吉隆坡举行,会议以“天然气:可持续发展的未来全球能源增长点”为主题,交流总结了2009-2012年以来天然气领域的发展现状和未来趋势.认为天然气逐步成为一次能源结构中不可替代的清洁能源;非常规天然气开发将改变世界天然气供需格局,成为推动天然气发展的重要因素;未来20年LNG需求将增加一倍多,北美LNG出口将影响世界贸易格局;全球天然气价格将以区域性价格体系为主,近期难以形成统一气价;天然气消费需求的增长及能源消费结构的调整加大了对储气库的需求;俄罗斯推行天然气出口新策略,纳布科管道项目遏阻;人力资源竞争激烈,人才是天然气工业可持续发展的重要驱动力 中国的天然气发展势头迅猛,市场空间广阔,将为世界天然气市场的发展注入新的活力.     

能源革命背景下煤炭消费转型升级研究

能源革命的首位就是消费革命,要抑制不合理的能源消费。对于煤炭的粗放型消费,使我国近些年面临着巨大的生态环境压力。探讨了当前煤炭消费转型升级的路径,并在未来新能源取代煤炭等化石能源的大背景下,提出了煤炭企业应对能源消费升级的策略选择。     

Bioenergie – Beitrag zum heutigen und zukünftigen Energiesystem

The introduction and establishment of renewable energies is still discussed intensively with the focus on climate-neutral coverage of the global energy demand. In this regard it is a valid option to use biomass as a feedstock. Already today biomass contributes significantly to cover the energy demand in the global energy system. Therefore, the present and future global bioenergy potentials are investigated in the following and compared to the respective biomass use. The results show, amongst others, that the share of biomass for heat, electricity and fuel production will increase worldwide until 2030, although the availability of biomass for energy production is likely to decline in the future.