State of the German Short-Term Power Market

The paper at hand provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the German short-term power market with focus on trading and efficiency. The pivotal question is whether current market designs are appropriate to maximise social welfare. If this can’t be confirmed, trade-offs between technical restrictions, transparency requirements, the structure of the supply side and regulators focusing mainly on consumer surplus are analysed, which prevent markets from being fully efficient. The emphasis is on Germany due to it’s central location in Europe, it’s sheer size and the rapid increase of renewable generation in recent years. This development forced the German power market into a state of transition. As a result, developments in Germany might serve as a blueprint for other European countries. The introduction of negative day-ahead prices, the implementation of a very liquid intraday trading, a quarter hourly auction and market-based systems for the procurement of Ancillary Services are just some examples of Germany’s pioneering role. On the other hand, negative effects of the rapid changes such as the excessive use of non-market based redispatch measures and system endangering imbalance price regimes shall also be explored. As a matter of course, cross-references to other European countries and harmonisation projects are included as the German market is well interconnected with neighbouring markets.     

Strommarktdesign: Zur Ausgestaltung der Auktionsregeln an der EEX

This paper studies the design of power exchanges in liberalized electricty markets. We analyze several pricing rules for day ahead trading and show that a uniform price mechanism has quite desirable properties as compared to its alternatives. We then discuss how the particular cost structure of electricity generation can be accounted for by appropriate bid formats. We moreover analyze the effects of bid caps and price floors in electricity auctions on market performance, as well as several other aspects of electricity market design. In particular, we discuss linkage of independently operating markets for electricity, reserve energy and transmission capacities, coupling of national power exchanges, and the effects of transparency on the outcome of electricity markets.     

Prognose der Day-Ahead Wind- und Photovoltaikstromerzeugung – Einflussgrößen und Zuverlässigkeit

In the future, the percentage of renewable energies in the electricity generation is expected to increase continuously. Especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are partly characterized by a fluctuating and imprecisely predictable power generation. To cover the residual load and to balance the forecast errors a rising number of flexible producers and consumers will be needed in the future. This is necessary to ensure the high security of supply of the German electricity grid.Against this background, the objective of the following investigation is to analyse the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind and photovoltaic systems in the control areas of Germany’s transmission system operators and in the entire area of Germany for the years 2010 to 15. The aim of this analysis is to identify the crucial parameters that influence the forecast error. Subsequently, the share of the wind and photovoltaic power forecast which can be considered as reliably predictable for the following day is estimated. In addition, the increase in this reliable prediction through a higher level of detail in the assessment of the forecast error is quantified. Based on these results, the need of flexibilities through the weather-dependent electricity supply from wind and photovoltaic systems can be estimated, and the impact on the electricity system can be evaluated.     

INEFFICIENCIES AND MARKET POWER IN FINANCIAL ARBITRAGE: A STUDY OF CALIFORNIA'S ELECTRICITY MARKETS*

For two years prior to the collapse of California's restructured electricity market, power traded in both a forward and a spot market for delivery at the same times and locations. Nonetheless, prices in the two markets often differed in significant and predictable ways. This apparent inefficiency persisted, we argue, because most firms believed that trading on inter‐market price differences would yield regulatory penalties. For the few firms that did make such trades, it was not profit‐maximizing to eliminate the price differences entirely. Skyrocketing prices in 2000 changed the major buyers' (utilities') incentives and exacerbated the price differentials between the markets.     

Market Coupling and the CWE Project

The article copes with the ongoing effort to establish implicit auctions to allocate transmission capacity on cross-border interconnectors in the power grid. By the means of implicit auctions (in contrast to explicit auctions), cross-border capacities are included in the clearing of local power exchanges. Concerning the day ahead auction, ‘market coupling’ plays an important role. Market coupling connects (formerly often national) electricity markets, simplifying cross-border trade. One of the main drivers of market coupling projects is the pursuit of European market integration i.e. allowing for convenient cross-border trade. The other reason is the perception that explicit auctions of transmission capacity (in addition to energy auctions which are often performed later) do sometimes lead to sub-optimal results. The objective function of market coupling is the maximisation of total welfare of all connected markets. Further to the explanation of different market coupling models (also regarding capacity calculation), the current development in Europe is wrapped up—including the CWE market coupling (Central Western Europe) project. The CWE market coupling is announced to start in fall 2010, coupling the day-ahead electricity markets of Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg and the Netherlands.     

Versorgungssicherheit auf Elektrizitätsmärkten — Investitionsdilemma durch ineffizientes Marktdesign?

This article addresses the investment dilemma in the area of power generation, which in insufficiently designed, liberalized power markets leads macroeconomically to undesirably low levels of energy supply security. The prime causes for this dilemma in the German power market are rooted first in damages for suppliers which are limited in cases of generation capacity-induced power failures and second in the time delay between the final trading opportunity and the actual power delivery. The latter inhibits the ability to individually balance unexpected changes in rates of power generation and discharge at any time. Furthermore, the following factors contribute to an intensification of the dilemma: insufficient end user participation in the wholesale market, a lack of single end user cut-off options, as well as time lags in the construction of generation capacities combined with various market uncertainties. Potential approaches to a sustainable improvement of supply security include on the one hand an increase in liquidity of intraday trading to align market clearing and power delivery as closely as possible. The promotion of direct marketing for renewable energy along with other strategies will lead to such an improvement. On the other hand, end users’ utilization of smart meters should be enhanced. Thus, peak load could be moderated and allows for the inclusion of end users’ willingness to pay into the wholesale market.     

Thinking creatively about markets

The paper takes a broad view of how economists identify market boundaries. Three types of definition are distinguished: trading markets, anti-trust markets and strategic markets. The first is based on the familiar law of one price, while the second follows US DIJ guidelines and is designed to identify positions of market power. Neither of these definitions suits the needs of one of the more recent and fastest growing users of economics, namely those responsible for corporate strategy decisions inside firms. The paper reviews why market definitions are a fundamental part of strategy decisions, and identifies several ways that such users might define market boundaries.     

Auctioneers sometimes prefer entry fees to extra bidders

We investigate a market thickness–market power tradeoff in an auction setting with endogenous entry. We find that charging admission fees can sometimes dominate the benefit of recruiting additional bidders, even though the fees themselves implicitly reduce competition at the auction stage. We also highlight that admission fees and reserve prices are different instruments in a setting with uncertainty over entry costs, and that optimal mechanisms in such settings may be more complex than simply setting a reserve price. Our results provide a counterpoint to the broad intuition of Bulow and Klemperer (1996) that market thickness often takes precedence over market power in auction design.     

Ein Vergleich ausgewählter europäischer Strombörsen

We study the rules of selected european energy exchanges and compare their institutional design. In most countries (except for the UK) a uniform price mechanism is used. The rules differ, however, in the possibilities to express complementary cost components in the bids. Also the degree of international coupling of markets is very different across countries. Our comparison of the markets allows to identify attractive trading rules and yields insights on an effective electricity market design.     

Operating Strategies for Battery Storage Systems in Low-Voltage Grids to Limit the Feed-In Power of Solar Power Systems Using Fuzzy Control

Germany’s energy turnaround is leading to an increasing integration of photovoltaics (PVs) throughout its distribution grid. To ensure safe grid operation in times of high solar radiation, PV plants must either be throttled back to comply with the feed-in limitation or store a portion of their excess electricity in batteries. This paper presents a grid-optimized operating strategy for PV storage systems based on a Fuzzy Logic Controller that reduces peak feed-in and thus also PV curtailment losses. The Fuzzy Logic Controller uses data on PV power surplus and battery charge level as input variables. To obtain good results, the set of numerical parameters of the membership functions is enhanced by evolutionary programming.The energetic assessment shows that even small electrical storage capacities (<<5?kWh) reduce curtailment losses considerably when using the grid-optimized operating strategy. The economic assessment shows that, in 2016, investments in PV storage systems with large PV plants and small batteries have small (positive) Internal Rates of Return. The system efficiency of the battery storage has a small impact on the profitability of PV storage systems, whereas the cycle stability and the electricity purchase price have a large impact. Moreover, there is an economic benefit for plant operators to switch from the simple to the grid-optimized operating strategy. Solar forecast inaccuracies and variations in load and generation profiles have a negligible impact on the performance of the control algorithm.     

Spectrum Licensing,Policy Instruments and Market Entry

Competition policy attempts to address the potential for market failure by encouraging competition in service markets. Often, in wireless communication service markets, national regulatory authorities seek to encourage entry via the spectrum assignment process. Instruments used include the assignment mode (auction or beauty contest), setting aside licenses and providing bidding (price and quantity) credits for potential entrants, and making more licenses (spectrum blocks) available than there are incumbent firms (excess licenses). The empirical analysis assesses the effectiveness of these policy instruments on encouraging entry. The econometric results show that the probability of entry is enhanced by using auction assignments and excess licenses. Furthermore, quantity, but not price, concessions encourage entry.     

The Impact of an increasing share of RES-E on the Conventional Power Market — The Example of Germany

The intermittency of wind power has a decreasing effect on day-ahead spot prices. Data from Germany illustrate this effect and explain the underlying relationships. This short-term price effect leads to an adaptation process in the conventional generation capacity mix. In the long-run, a higher peak load plant share is required to cope with the increasing volatility of the residual demand. The result is an adapted merit-order. This merit-order intersects with an increasingly volatile residual demand curve and leads to a higher price volatility in the power market, which is going to trigger further adaptations. Therefore this article concludes with a list of open research questions, which can be derived from the illustrated relationship. These research questions should be investigated as soon as possible in order to induce the required adaptations in time.     

Estimating Market Power in the US Copper Industry

Before 1978, most of the domestic copper production in the US and an important share of imports were traded at a price set by the major US producers. At the same time, the rest of the world was trading copper at prices determined in auction markets. This two-price system ended in 1978, when the largest US producers began using the Comex price of refined copper as a benchmark for setting their prices. Using this regime shift, I empirically test the competitive behavior of the US copper industry before 1978. The results show that copper prices were close to the levels predicted by a competitive model of the industry.     

Auction Platform Design and the Linkage Principle

This paper examines an auction platform in which the monopoly platform maximizes profits by adjusting participation fees and choosing an auction format. The seller has private information on the quality of the good, and each participating buyer receives a private signal about his valuation of the good. The choice of auction format determines the allocation of trading surplus between the seller and buyers. This paper shows that when the seller's type is affiliated with the buyers' signals, the platform can charge higher participation fees on both sides by choosing a first‐price or descending auction than a second‐price or ascending auction.     

Germany’s Energy Supply

Germany has only very limited domestic energy resources. Seventy percent of primary energy needs must be covered by imports. The markets for energy are marked by a wide diversity and a large number of providers. The oil market has been intensely competitive for decades now. Lignite and hard coal are subjected to fierce substitution competition, especially with natural gas. The natural gas and electricity markets were fully liberalized in 1998. Consumers can freely choose from a vast number of suppliers. Since the beginning of this century, however, state interference particularly in the electricity market has increased. The expansion of renewables has been promoted since the year 2000 by feed-in priority and feed-in remunerations regulated by the state. The energy transition initiated in 2011 is characterized by ambitious energy and climate policy targets. Key pillars include the conversion of electricity generation from production on the basis of conventional energy sources to a system based mainly on renewable energies combined with stringent requirements designed to enhance energy efficiency and what are probably the most ambitious climate protection targets worldwide. As regards the expansion of renewables and the phase-out of nuclear energy, Germany is keeping to its target path. By contrast, there are no signs yet that the objectives formulated in terms of the lowering of primary energy consumption and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be achieved.     

How Do Land Auction Formats Influence the Market Structure and Aggregate Surplus of Real Estate Development?

This article proposes a duopoly dynamic game theoretic model to investigate the market structure and aggregate surplus of real estate development when land is sold in a sealed‐bid first price auction vis‐à‐vis an open English auction. It relaxes the assumption of symmetric bidders. The land values have common value and private value components. We find that the sealed‐bid first price auction introduces competition in the real estate development market. The open English auction leads a monopoly market. State agencies are recommended to increase the aggregate surplus of real estate development by publishing past bidding information under the sealed‐bid first price auction and reducing information asymmetry between bidders.     

排污权交易市场机制设计的实验研究

排污权交易制度在很大程度上从理论研究和实践操作两个层面推动了环境规制理论与政策的不断发展与完善。本文采用规范的实验经济学研究方法,建立排污权交易市场机制设计实验研究的理论模型,并通过实验研究发现双向拍卖与分散交易两种不同交易制度对排污权交易市场效率高低存在影响,同时交易费用对市场运行效果也有影响。在此基础上,本文指出今后排污权交易实验研究的方向。     

Estimating market power in the Internet backbone. Using the IP transit Band-X database

Recent studies have found the Internet backbone to be more competitive than was thought before. This paper explores a novel route to monitor market power using prices and quality data from the online trading site Band-X. First the hypothesis that Europe is a connectivity market on its own, is tested and then, by using a Panel data regression, the paper finds that these markets are not fully competitive since company specific reputation effects play a major role and price variations are only marginally affected by qualitative variables. Worryingly, companies with high prices are often able to supply an inferior quality transit.     

电力市场效率评估与碳市场价格设计——基于电碳市场关联视角下的传导率估计

厘清并量化电力市场与碳市场间的关联关系,是深化电力市场改革与实现"双碳"目标的重要抓手。本文基于2006—2018年中国100个地级及以上城市的面板数据,使用似不相关回归模型评估了电力市场效率,在此基础上研究了电、碳市场关联条件下碳价对电价的传导率,并对不同场景下全国碳市场的碳价进行了优化设计。研究发现:(1)与非试点地区相比,碳市场试点地区中电力市场的无谓损失率更低,并且市场效率的提高具有更高的碳减排作用。(2)电、碳市场关联条件下,碳价对电力市场中居民电价的传导率高于对工业电价的传导率,但均远低于完全竞争条件下的传导率水平。(3)传导率的提升能够缓解"降电价"与"碳减排"之间的矛盾。当前传导率下电力市场效率目标与碳减排目标的协同实现需要碳价的大幅提升,而在完全传导的理想情况下最优碳价约为40元/吨。(4)长期而言,当前传导率下碳排放总量下降场景、经济增速放缓场景对应的最优碳价分别为255.05元/吨、173.63元/吨,而人口老龄化场景并未对最优碳价的设置形成约束。本文的研究不仅为电力市场与碳市场之间的关联奠定了理论基础,也为全国碳市场价格机制的优化设计提供了政策参考。     

CPF stocks: Prices,returns and volatility

We identify a unique phenomenon in the Central Provident Fund (CPF) stocks where stock prices increase in the absence of fundamental changes in firm value. CPF stocks are stocks endorsed by the Central Provident Fund Board in Singapore as approved investment for its members. CPF stocks offer significant price appreciation and value preservation as well as abnormal returns in the bull market before the October 1987 market crash. We find evidence of noise trading in bull markets and price pressure effects that persist through bearish market conditions.The authors are from the Department of Finance and Banking, National University of Singapore.