Paths of efficient self-enforcing trade agreements

This paper characterizes the efficient payoff frontier in a three country model where countries face one time adjustment costs of forming trade agreements, and compares it with the constrained efficient frontier when agreements must be self-enforcing. The presence of self-enforcement constraints puts a limit on the magnitude of transfers that can be made between countries, and makes it more likely that bilateral agreements are observed on the constrained efficient frontier. The existence of adjustment costs leads to the possibility that payoffs under a two step agreement, in which an initial bilateral agreement is expanded to include the third country, may Pareto dominate the payoffs from immediate formation of an agreement among all three countries. However, the condition that a two step agreement be efficient in the absence of self-enforcing constraints is neither necessary nor sufficient for the gradual approach to have a lower minimum discount factor. This paper was prepared for the conference “New Directions in International Trade Theory” held at the University of Nottingham. I thank Andres Rodriguez-Clare, Rod Falvey, conference participants, and anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

The logic of hereditary rule: theory and evidence

Hereditary leadership has been an important feature of the political landscape throughout history. This paper argues that hereditary leadership is like a relational contract which improves policy incentives. We assemble a unique dataset on leaders between 1874 and 2004 in which we classify them as hereditary leaders based on their family history. The core empirical finding is that economic growth is higher in polities with hereditary leaders but only if executive constraints are weak. Moreover, this holds across of a range of specifications. The finding is also mirrored in policy outcomes which affect growth. In addition, we find that hereditary leadership is more likely to come to an end when the growth performance under the incumbent leader is poor.     

The governance mechanism of Russian firms: its self-enforcing nature and limitations

The legal form of business enterprises in contemporary Russia is diversified to almost the same extent as those in major advanced countries. Joint-stock companies are now the most common form of incorporation among leading industrial enterprises. The law on joint-stock companies in Russia provides for the governance mechanism of joint-stock companies, in order to implement the concept of a ‘self-enforcing’ organisation in which the legal code of business management should be observed voluntarily by managers and large stockholders. This fundamental idea is embodied in many aspects of the current system, including the mechanism of management and supervision characterised as ‘diarchial leadership’, the balance of power between stockholders and corporate officers, and the internal audit system. However, the self-enforcing nature of the Russian enterprise has been undermined by a number of factors, including the overwhelming expansion of closed joint-stock companies, the predominance of insider ownership, the short history of internal auditing and the lack of legal enforcement power. As a result, breaches of company law are rampant in Russia today. This raises serious problems for the Russian corporate system, along with the legal peculiarity of privatised firms and people's enterprises, which complicates the system of joint-stock companies and deprives it of transparency.     

Collective bargaining and school district test scores: evidence from Ohio bargaining agreements

We revisit the relationship between collective bargaining by teachers unions and school performance. The empirical literature in this area has found mixed results at both the state and district levels. We contribute to this literature in two ways. First, rather than simply dummy union status, we proxy for the restrictiveness of collective bargaining agreements with the number of pages per agreement. Second, we employ Bayesian spatial methods to deal with spatial dependence in school district activities. Our reduced-form results indicate that collective bargaining directly lowers scores on high school math scores, but that the total effect is zero.     

Regret in auctions: theory and evidence

The sealed-bid first-price auction of a single object in the case of independent privately-known values is the simplest auction setting and understanding it is important for understanding more complex mechanisms. But bidders bid above the risk-neutral Nash equilibrium theory prediction. The reasons for this “over bidding” remain an unsolved puzzle. Several explanations have been offered, including risk aversion, social comparisons, and learning. We present a new explanation based on regret and a model that explains not only the observed over bidding in sealed-bid first-price auctions, but also behavior in several other settings that is inconsistent with risk aversion. The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the National Science Foundation.     

Household search choice: theory and evidence

Since the work by Stigler (1961) on the economics of information in the early 1960s, economists have paid closer attention to the role of search for information. However, search methods are not considered in the theory of portfolio choice. We present a model of investor search behaviour in order to provide a framework by which to evaluate our empirical evidence on the role of search in portfolio selection and performance. We study two types of search methods: informal and professional. We show that the income, wealth and risk preference of households influence their search choice.     

The import price index with trade barriers: theory and evidence

The standard economic import price index hinges on an assumption of free trade. Applying the index to situations with barriers to trade yields biased results compared to a true import price index. To circumvent this problem, it is common to use average prices, such as unit values, as an aggregator function. However, the use of average prices is not rooted in economic theory. In this paper, I generalise the economic import price index to allow for barriers to trade in the form of quantity constraints. To illustrate the theoretical framework, I use the case of imports of textiles to Norway from 1988 to 1997. I find that a standard economic import price index, such as the Laspeyres index, grossly overstates import costs and that this bias is significantly reduced by using unit values.     

Information gatekeepers: theory and experimental evidence

We consider a model where two adversaries can spend resources in acquiring public information about the unknown state of the world in order to influence the choice of a decision maker. We characterize the sampling strategies of the adversaries in the equilibrium of the game. We show that as the cost of information acquisition for one adversary increases, that person collects less evidence whereas the other adversary collects more evidence. We then test the results in a controlled laboratory setting. The behavior of subjects is close to the theoretical predictions. Mistakes are relatively infrequent (15%). They occur in both directions, with a higher rate of over-sampling (39%) than under-sampling (8%). The main difference with the theory is the smooth decline in sampling around the theoretical equilibrium. Comparative statics are also consistent with the theory, with adversaries sampling more when their own cost is low and when the other adversary??s cost is high. Finally, there is little evidence of learning over the 40 matches of the experiment.     

The oil price shocks and the unit root hypothesis: the UK experience

Critics of the standard Dickey–Fuller and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests for unit roots argue that when there have been significant structural breaks during the sample period, these tests are often biased toward acceptance. Allowing for a one-time change in the slope of the trend function often leads to rejection of the unit-root hypothesis which implies that business cycles are temporary fluctuations around a stable but possibly shifting trend path. The validity of the unit root hypothesis in connection with the two oil crises in the seventies is re-examined using quarterly time-series data for a set of UK macroeconomic series. The empirical evidence presented supports the view that only those shocks associated with the oil price crises had a persistent effect on the UK economy.     

Technology and labor regulations: theory and evidence

This paper shows that different labor market policies can lead to differences in technology across sectors in a model of labor saving technologies. Labor market regulations reduce the skill premium and as a result, if technologies are labor saving, countries with more stringent labor regulation, which bind more for low skilled workers, become less technologically advanced in their high skill sectors, but more technologically advanced in their low skill sectors. We then present data on capital-output ratios, on estimated productivity levels and on patent creation, which tend to support the predictions of our model.     

Asymmetric FDI and tax-treaty bargaining: theory and evidence

Tax treaties are often viewed as a mechanism for eliminating tax competition, however, this approach ignores the need for bargaining over the treaty's terms. This paper focuses on how bargaining can affect the withholding taxes set under the treaty. In a simple framework, we develop hypotheses about patterns in treaty tax rates. A key determinant for these patterns is the relative size of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) activity. In plausible situations, more asymmetric countries will negotiate treaties with higher tax rates. This theory is then tested using 1992 data from US and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) bilateral tax treaties. Overall, the data supports the prediction that greater asymmetric FDI activity increases the negotiated tax rates.     

International migration and trade agreements: The new role of PTAs

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and bilateral migration flows. Building on the empirical literature on the determinants of migration flows, I estimate a modified gravity model to assess the role of PTAs and their content on bilateral migration flows. Using a sample of 29 OECD destination countries over the period 1998–2008, I show a strong positive effect of PTAs on bilateral migration flows. I find that the content of PTAs also matters: when visa‐and‐asylum and labour market related provisions are included in PTAs, this further stimulates bilateral migration flows. Different estimation strategies, including instrumental variables, are employed to address the potential endogeneity bias problems related to PTAs and their content.     

Uncertainty and crude oil market volatility: new evidence

ABSTRACT

The main goal of this paper is to investigate the predictability of five economic uncertainty indices for oil price volatility in a changing world. We employ the standard predictive regression framework, several model combination approaches, as well as two prevailing model shrinkage methods to evaluate the performances of the uncertainty indices. The empirical results based on simple autoregression models including only one index suggest that global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) and US equity market volatility (EMV) indices have significant predictive power for crude oil market volatility. In addition, the model combination approaches adopted in this paper can improve slightly the performances of individual autoregressive models. Lastly, the two model shrinkage methods, namely Elastin net and Lasso, outperform other individual AR-type model and combination models in most forecasting cases. Other empirical results based on alternative forecasting methods, estimation window sizes, high/low volatility and economic expansion/recession time periods further make sure the robustness of our major conclusions. The findings in this paper also have several important economic implications for oil investors.     

Services liberalization and global value chain participation: New evidence for heterogeneous effects by income level and provisions

Participation in global value chains (GVCs) is a key element in the industrialization strategies of many developing nations. This paper investigates the role of services liberalization in promoting participation in GVCs. Using the gravity framework, I examine the impact of services trade agreements on gross trade and GVC trade (backward and forward participation) in goods. I find that services trade agreements promote both, but especially GVC trade, although the effects are heterogeneous: the impact is bigger for developing nation exporters. Moreover, services agreements that allow the export of services without local presence (nonestablishment rights) are particularly important in fostering GVC participation.     

Diversity and the disinterest in trade liberalization: on the prospects of self-enforcing cooperation

International economic order, including the rules of the game for trade, usually suffers from enforcement problems. We examine the prospects of self-enforcing cooperation as trade relationships evolve. It turns out that factor differentials and specificities are of utmost importance. In fact, prospects of self-enforcing cooperation are the lower the more diverse the countries are on that score. Differences may even result in countries showing an outright disinterest in trade liberalization. Notably, this result also holds in a recurrent, that is, in an evolutionary setting that otherwise induces cooperation in trade liberalization with self-enforcing properties.     

Austrian business cycle theory: Empirical evidence

The Austrian approach to business cycles has been seldom examined in econometric terms. This paper first reviews the essentials of that approach and the recent application of the Austrian business cycle theory in the economics literature. Quarterly data for Germany, USA, England and France, 1980:1 through 2006:1, are used to explore business cycle facts and relations between terms structure of interest rates, relative prices, composition of aggregate expenditure and real GDP. Results are consistent with the hypothesis of the Austrian business cycle theory that monetary policy shocks explain cycles. The changes in term structure of interest rates and composition of aggregate expenditure are large enough to explain changes in aggregate economic activity.

The Role of Keynesian Policies in Semi-industrialized Countries: theory and evidence from India

This paper examines the relevance of Keynesian policies—interpreted as those policies implied by Keynes's theoretical analysis of unemployment developed in The General Theory—for a subset of developing economies, which are called semi-industrialized countries. It draws on recent contributions in development economics to argue on theoretical grounds that Keynesian policies are relevant for semi-industrialized countries even when they are constrained by capital shortages, stagnant agricultural sectors, and foreign exchange availability. It then discusses the recent development experience of India to illustrate the empirical relevance of some of these theoretical issues.     

The impact of endogenous tax treaties on foreign direct investment: theory and evidence

Abstract .  This paper investigates the effect of tax treaties on bilateral stocks of outward FDI. For this purpose we employ a numerically solvable general equilibrium model of trade and multinational firms to study the impact of tax treaties on both welfare and outward FDI. The model indicates under which factor endowment configurations countries gain in welfare when implementing a tax treaty. This motivates an empirical specification of the endogenous selection into implementing new tax treaties. Using data of bilateral OECD outward FDI between 1985 and 2000, we find a significant negative impact of newly implemented tax treaties on outward FDI stocks.