信息不完全、信息不对称与资本市场规制

有效市场假说作为现代金融学的理论基石,是建立在一系列严格假设条件基础上的。本文从信息不完全、信息不对称的角度初步探讨了有效市场假说的局限性,由此引出政府通过强制性信息披露机制对资本市场进行规制的必要性,并在此基础上探讨了其对中国资本市场建设和完善的政策启示。     

“理性人”假设的流变与包容性对待

"理性人"假设是经济学理论中最具争议的概念之一,不同的经济学流派对此提出了各自的看法和理解,总体来说,经历了从完全理性到有限理性再到非理性的变化,但并没有停止争论的趋势。因此,需要把人性假设作为理论出发点,把握经济学方法论的进展与人性假设理解的变化,包容性地对待"理性人"假设。     

论有效资本市场假说及其面临的挑战

长期以来,有效资本市场假说一直是许多金融理论的前提,但随着资本市场的发展与完善,人们越来越清楚地认识到有效资本市场假说存在很多的局限性。文章以有效资本市场假说的假设为出发点,从行为金融学和分形市场理论两方面对有效资本市场假说提出质疑,为研究资本市场提供一种新的思维和视觉。     

公允价值计量的相关性与应用调整研究

金融危机的发生把公允价值计量推至风口浪尖,引发国际国内会计界对公允价值去留的大争论,许多专家学者对公允价值信息的相关性提出质疑.文章介绍了美国、德国和日本等国对公允价值计量的调整,并由此展望我国公允价值计量的应用.     

基于不完全信息的社会资本分析

社会资本从社会学转向经济学研究的首要问题是建立社会资本的微观基础,一直以来,社会资本的经济学解释都是基于新古典经济学的"理性经济人"假设,但实际上社会资本与理性经济人假设是不相容的,社会资本的前提是不完全信息,而理性经济人假设本身是完全信息的。只有基于不完全信息,将个体的理性扩展为二元理性,在"社会经济人"假设下分析社会资本,并通过社会资本的非市场机制——信任关系,才能有效地使社会资本融入到主流经济学的分析框架中。     

军民深度融合下民营企业与军工企业博弈分析

构建民营企业与军工企业的博弈概念模型,基于军民融合当前发展特色提出博弈假设条件;依据军民融合程度,分别建立其完全信息静态博弈收益矩阵、完全信息动态博弈博弈树以及军民深度融合下完全信息动态博弈模型,从而分析当前影响民营企业与军工企业博弈的重要因素;最后总结军民深度融合背景下民营企业和军工企业的最佳决策选择,并依据博弈分析结果提出中国民营企业与军工企业在武器装备科研生产领域竞争合作的启示和建议。     

经济学人性假设的演进与超越

本文以西方经济学“经济人”理论的发展演进为分析路线，分析了“经济人”假设的含义与缺陷，通过对“经济人”自利动机的内涵、理性选择与其辅助假设三方面的剖析、批判与修正，力图透视其发展进程中各种理论流派对这一人性假设的争论和修正，从而揭示其走向现实性的变化特征与方法论意义。     

投资者交易行为对市场有效性的影响

有效市场假说是现代金融学的基石,直到目前,有效市场假说理论仍处于主流金融学的核心地位．然而现实中发生一系列市场中的异象使有效市场假说理论难以自圆其说。本文从分析有效市场假说的前提条件出发深入分析了有效市场假说存在着的种种缺陷,从而得出在现在的证券市场中是不存在完全有效市场的,并对新信息能影响股价的大幅波动予以质疑。     

对主流股票定价理论进行质疑的研究综述

文章综合考察了人们对主流定价理论的质疑,认为各种质疑可以归结为五个层面:实践操作层面、实证检验层面、理论模型层面、理论假设层面和基本方法论层面。这五个层面的质疑对主流金融学的威胁逐步加强,它们也是相互联系的,某一层面的质疑会在其他层面上引发共鸣或得到支持。     

对经济人假设的批判及方法论评价

现代经济学的基本假设之一是经济人理性行为假设.现在,经济学在科学体系中地位日益提高,这个假设作为经济学基石的公理性、准确性越来越受到众多学者的质疑和批判.本文将简要的阐述这些批判,并从方法论的角度评价这一假设存在的不足.     

A note on tests of efficient market hypotheses: The case of the forward exchange rate

The purpose of this paper is to show that the definition of market efficiency based on rational expectations presents serious problems for empirical hypothesis testing on data that consist of equally spaced observations. Indeed, one can argue that the efficient market hypothesis is, in a strict sense, immune from empirical falsification for the typical data set. This idea is developed for an application of the efficient market hypothesis to the foreign exchange market, i.e., the notion that the forward exchange rate is an unbiased and efficient predictor of future spot exchange rates.     

TESTING PROFIT AND STRUCTURE RELATIONSHIP IN THE EUROPEAN BANKING MARKETS USING EFFICIENCY MEASURES

This paper provides a comparison between the developed and developing European countries through investigating the profit–structure relationship in the banking industries. The reduced‐form profit equations are estimated for each group of countries for the period 1995–2006. The results suggest that the inclusion of X‐efficiency and scale efficiency directly in the reduced‐form profit equation is crucial in explaining the bank profit–structure relationship in the European banking markets. When we control for direct measures of efficiency, the market share and concentration coefficient become insignificant in all regressions. The results support the efficiency versions of the efficient‐structure hypothesis over the relative market power and structure–conduct–performance hypothesis. For the developing economies of Europe, the findings of the paper indicate that efficiency is a crucial factor for establishing a sound banking system and the banks in these countries should increase their scale of operations to attain an optimal profit level.     

China＇s Stock Market： Inefficiencies and Institutional Implications

The dramatic movements of China＇s stock market in the past two and a half years have renewed debate among academics over the efficiency of China＇s stock market. The present paper tests the efficiency of China＇ s stock market. The realization of efficient markets requires the effective operation of a complete set of macro and micro mechanisms. However, such mechanisms are not only incomplete in China＇ s stock market, but are also ineffective because of the prevalence of institutional deficiencies.     

Contrarian Investment in the Dutch Stock Market

The efficient markets hypothesis states that at any times security prices fully reflect all available information. Contrarian investment strategies do not recognize the efficiency of capital markets. They call for buying undervalued stocks, i.e. stocks with a low price relative to their fundamentals. The idea behind such a strategy is to take advantage of the extrapolation behaviour of naive investors. Using a fresh and extensive data set from the Dutch stock market, we found that these strategies yield an outperformance without a higher risk. Our results make it hard to maintain the efficient market hypothesis.     

THE CHANGING EFFICIENCY OF AFRICAN STOCK MARKETS

This paper classifies formal African stock markets into four categories and discuses the principal characteristics of the seven markets covered in this study: South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Mauritius and Kenya. Using a GARCH approach with time‐varying parameters, a test of evolving efficiency (TEE) is implemented for periods starting in the early 1990s and ending in June 2001. This test detects changes in weak form efficiency through time. The TEE finds that the Johannesburg stock market is weak form efficient throughout the period, and three stock markets become weak form efficient towards the end of the period: Egypt and Morocco from 1999 and Nigeria from early 2001. These contrast with the Kenya and Zimbabwe stock markets which show no tendency towards weak form efficiency and the Mauritius market which displays a slow tendency to eliminate inefficiency. The paper relates weak form efficiency to stock market turnover, capitalisation and institutional characteristics of markets.     

Efficiency,Cointegration and Contagion in Equity Markets: Evidence from China,Japan and South Korea*

This paper empirically examines whether three East Asian stock markets, namely, those of China, Japan and South Korea, are individually and/or jointly efficient, and whether contagion exists between the cointegrated markets. While individual market efficiency is examined through testing for the random walk hypothesis, joint market efficiency is examined through testing for cointegration and contagion. The present study finds that the hypothesis of individual market efficiency is strongly rejected for the Chinese stock market, but not for the Japanese and the South Korean stock markets. However, when testing for cointegration, market efficiency is strongly rejected for all these markets. We take a simple case of contagion and find that although there is a long‐term relationship among the three markets, the contagion hypothesis cannot be rejected only between Japanese and South Korean stock markets, indicating short‐run portfolio diversification benefits from these two markets.     

Public information content and market information efficiency: A comparison between China and the U.S.

Based on the concept that the presence of public information shocks can increase the synchronicity of stock returns, we develop an extended version of the mixture of distribution hypothesis model (MDH) along the lines of Andersen (1996) to measure the public information content embedded in the stock prices. The results show that although we add an additional information structure, the significance of the MDH is still higher than that of Andersen's (1996) model, which indicates that our setting is reasonable. We measure and compare the market effectiveness between China and the United States from 1998 to 2016 by using the public information content calculated by the developed MDH model. The calculation results show that the average public information in the Chinese market is 0.336, which means the market efficiency is slightly lower than 0.317 in the United States.¹ Further analysis shows that market efficiency has increased steadily between 2002 and 2014 and has smaller volatility in the Chinese market. The slow increasing in market efficiency indicate that the securities laws enacted by China in the 1990s and 2000s aimed at promoting the development of the stock market are effective.     

Market Efficiency and Profitable Wagering in the National Hockey League: Can Bettors Score on Longshots?

Sports betting and racetrack markets continue to provide researchers with opportunities to test the efficient market hypothesis. This paper investigates the efficiency of a relatively new sports betting market, the National Hockey League, for 1990-1996. The market is found to be somewhat inefficient and simple wagering strategies are identified that result in profitable returns. Consistent with previous research for football and baseball, bettors in hockey are inclined to overbet favorites relative to their observed chance of winning. Interestingly, the market does not appear to be converging to efficiency.     

上海期货交易所期货价格有效性的实证检验

本文在风险溢价理论框架下,借助协整分析法对上海期货交易所铜、铝期货价格的有效性进行了规范的实证检验。结果显示:距最后交易日前7、14、28天的铝期货市场支持风险溢价假说,在风险溢价条件下具有长期效率;而距最后交易日前7、14天的铜期货市场亦在风险溢价条件下呈有效状态,当距最后交易日28天时,铜期货市场不支持风险溢价假说,但并不能就此得出此时的铜期货市场没有效率的结论。