Tail risk and investors’ concerns: Evidence from Brazil

I estimate tail risk for Brazil from January 2001 to July 2020 and investigate the origins of tail risk variation. The tail risk measure peaks at stock market crashes, financial crises, political shocks and disaster events such as the coronavirus pandemic. Moreover, I find that tail risk is countercyclical, has strong predictive power for market returns and negatively predicts real economic activity. In order to identify the investors’ concerns associated with tail risk, I extract daily news from the largest financial newspaper in Brazil. The co-movement between news and tail risk indicates that tail risk variation is mainly driven by disaster concerns, followed by economic and government uncertainty. While economic uncertainty explains the countercyclical property of tail risk, investors only require compensation for bearing tail risk implied by disaster concerns. Similarly, tail risk negatively impacts real outcomes because of the disaster concerns that it identifies. These findings support recent models explaining asset pricing puzzles with time-varying disaster risk.     

Do universities knowledge spillovers impact on new firm’s growth? Empirical evidence from UK

The paper explores the effect of scientific institutions on firm’s growth, coupling regional science and entrepreneurship approaches. We focus on the role of universities, largely considered in the literature as the main source of knowledge spillovers. To this purpose, we centre our attention on UK public companies on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), a market dedicated to young and growing companies in both science and non-science based industries. In the paper we investigate the growth determinants of 231 listed firms which have gone public during the period going from 1995 to 2006. To our purposes, in the empirical analysis we use the Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effects model. The results supports the hypothesis that, controlling for firm’s idiosyncratic factors and external forces, both universities knowledge input and output are important determinants of the growth of entrepreneurial firms listed on the AIM.

Macroeconomic factors and firm’s cross-border merger and acquisitions

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables on the wealth effects of cross-border acquisitions by Malaysian multinational companies. The sample consists of 159 cross-border acquisitions by Malaysian MNCs bidding in 22 countries around the world from 2000 to 2007. The macroeconomic variables examined in this study are foreign economic condition, GNP correlation between countries, and level of economic development of target country. The findings indicate that, foreign economic condition affects the wealth effect negatively, while the level of economic development of target country affects the wealth effect positively. Aside from the macroeconomic variables, we also find that English or non-English language, government’s rules index and the telecommunication infrastructure all play certain roles in the Malaysian cross-border acquisitions. Implied from this study is that, value creation of the Malaysian cross-border acquisitions is a function of the foreign economic condition and the level of economic development of the target foreign country.     

The behavioural gap between entrepreneurial SME’s and high growth: evidence from Canada

Entrepreneurial orientation (EO) describes a firm’s attitude towards entrepreneurial activity; however, it does not measure the specific behaviors likely to contribute to high growth. This research applies the resource-based and dynamic capabilities views to propose a mediation model between EO and high growth. The theoretical framework is drawn from the strategic management and entrepreneurship literature. Competing models are tested against a sample of Canadian SMEs to validate the proposed explanation for the presence of high-growth firms among the population. The study finds that the relationship between EO and high growth is perfectly mediated by innovation performance, a behavioral measure of innovation. This research contributes to firm growth theory while providing further insight into the drivers of high growth useful to policy makers endeavoring to stimulate, and overcome barriers to, entrepreneurship and innovation. Determining the factors associated with firm growth can have implications for management as well as policy. If a firm’s goal is to grow it must be able to focus its limited resources using a strategy appropriate for growth.

     

Daily momentum profits with firm characteristics and investors’ optimism in the Taiwan market

In this paper, we examine two different investing attitudes, being conservative sentiment which mitigates the momentum effect and, alternatively, the optimistic sentiment which strengthens such an effect. Where the stock market index levels close near a previous peak level, the impact of the index on momentum profits can assist in identifying such sentiments. In this study, we investigate the price and price-size momentum strategies in Taiwan of short formation periods of less than a month. The results indicate that investors adopt optimistic attitudes towards the 5-day and 20-day highs in the market index, whereas a conservative attitude is adopted at the 52-week high. Using the quantile regression model, the results indicate that the momentum effect is mitigated when the stock index price is relatively high for higher momentum profits. On the other hand, the momentum effect is strengthened when the stock index price is relatively high for lower momentum profits. However, the high point of the stock index is not found to have any impact on the price-B/M momentum effect.     

Role of women’s empowerment in improving farmer’s livelihood: empirical evidence from China

Quality & Quantity - Gender equality and women’s development are the paramount objectives for the sustainable development of the mankind. The influence of women’s rights and status...     

Jump risk and cross section of stock returns: evidence from China’s stock market

Various studies have confirmed the existence of jumps in different financial markets. However, there is sparse theoretical or empirical effort to examine the dynamic relation between jump risk and cross-sectional expected stock returns. We follow a stylized SDF-based diffusion-jump model to examine its testable implications about the relation between cross-section expected excess returns and variations in jump intensities across stocks. The zero-cost portfolio, exploiting the return spreads between the top and bottom decile portfolios formed on jump intensity, could earn an annualized return as high as 24% with an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.67. A Fama-MacBeth test shows that stock excess returns monotonically decrease in jump intensity even after controlling for other common risk factors.     

Fiscal decentralization and multinational firms’ ownership: evidence from China

China’s fiscal decentralization increases the incentive for local governments to maintain economic prosperity and improve institutional environments for multinational firms. This study investigates the impact of fiscal decentralization on the ownership shares of multinational firms in China. Multinational firms located in regions with higher degrees of fiscal decentralization are found to own larger shares of their foreign subsidiaries. This result is consistent under various robustness checks, including instrumental variables estimations. The finding suggests that multinational firms respond to local fiscal decentralization by increasing their participation in investment. This study therefore provides additional evidence for the beneficial effect of fiscal decentralization on China’s economic growth by highlighting the risk-mitigating role of fiscal decentralization.     

Which institutional investors matter for firm survival and performance?

Using data that spans three decades, we assess the diverse roles of institutional investors in impacting survival and performance of chronically underperforming firms and contrast the results for consistently overperforming firms. We find material differences in investor roles and investment returns between these samples. Differentiating among institutional types, controlling for prior performance and attrition bias provides insights unattainable by examining aggregated holdings. For underperformers, results are negative for activist pension funds and long-term institutions, positive for activist hedge funds and short-term institutions, and mixed for institutional blockholders.     

Returns to firm-provided training: evidence from French worker–firm matched data

Using worker–firm matched data, we study the incidence and the effects of firm-provided training in France. When we use the same kinds of data and models as the existing ones, the estimated impact of training on wages is as high in France as in other countries. When we build on the uniqueness of our French data and control for the selectivity of firms' training practices, the estimated impact of training falls close to zero. The wage differentials observed across trained and untrained workers reflect that individuals who are the most likely to be placed in training programs are also those with the highest unmeasured abilities.     

Managerial pay and firm performance — Danish evidence

This study examines the determinants of managerial compensation in a sample of Danish firms, and tests hypotheses derived from agency theory in the seldom studied (European) institutional setting of relationship-oriented governance systems. We find pay–performance sensitivity similar to that found in other settings, small differences in sensitivity across management levels, and no evidence in support of the career concern hypothesis.     

Does bond market development enhance the banking sector’s efficiency in resource allocation? Industry-level evidence from Korea

Korea’s financial system used to be bank-based, with banks playing the leading role in financing corporations. As highlighted by Park et al. (2019), however, bond markets have developed rapidly in Korea and other Asian countries. The corporate bond market competes with banks as a source of finance for large borrowers. As such, bond markets may affect banking sector operation, a process known as disintermediation. In this paper, we examine whether bond market development improves the efficiency of resource allocation in Korean bank lending. We propose two channels through which bond market development affects the efficiency of bank lending. Since the two channels have opposing effects on the efficiency of banking, the issue must be settled by empirical analysis. We find that bank loans are much less efficient than bond financing in allocating resources across industries. Furthermore, banks are particularly inefficient in resource allocation in industries that rely more on bond financing. This suggests that competition from bond financing does not improve allocative efficiency of bank loans.     

Unawareness and indifference to economic reform among the public: evidence from India’s power sector reform

Although economic reform generates winners and losers, many people have no opinion whatsoever about it. Because most empirical research ignores these non-responses, the conventional wisdom on the determinants of support for economic reform ignores large groups of silent citizens. To correct this problem, we present a stylized model that accounts for support, opposition, indifference, and unawareness about reform. We argue that informed people and those who perceive the status quo as dysfunctional will form an opinion more readily than others. For evidence, we examine public opinion about electricity privatization from a large field survey in rural India. We find that information and perceived inefficiency have much larger effects on the likelihood of forming an opinion than on the direction of that opinion (yes or no), emphasizing the importance of accounting for opinion formation process. In this case, information and perceived inefficiency make reform a salient issue to a passive public, most of whom become vocal opponents of reform.     

Firms and universities—do spillovers enhance firm’s performance?

This paper aims to assess if geographic proximity from universities enhances small firms’ performance, by means of knowledge spillovers. A sample of micro data is used on 390 manufacturing firms and 11 public universities in Portugal. Performance is measured by labour productivity. The estimation was made using OLS as well as Quantile Regression. Results seem to confirm that both domains of knowledge do produce distinct effects, but there is no evidence that a firm’s performance improves with the proximity to a university. Likewise, the quality of universities does not seem to influence the labour productivity of firms.

The persistence of the small firm/January effect: Is it consistent with investors’ learning and arbitrage efforts?

Using improved methodology and an expanded research design, we examine whether the small firm/January effect (Keim, D. B. (1983). Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality: further empirical evidence. Journal of Financial Economics 12:13–32), is declining over time due to market efficiency. First, we find that January returns are smaller after 1963–1979, but have simply reverted to levels that existed before that time. Second, we show that the January effect is not limited to mature markets but also appears in firms trading on the relatively new NASDAQ exchange in the 1970s. Third, trading volume for small firms in December and January is not different from other months, implying that traders are not actively arbitraging the anomaly. Together, our results suggest that this anomaly continues to defy rational explanation in an efficient market.     

Retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity

The paper investigates the relation between retail investors’ participation in trading and aggregate stock market liquidity. The findings show a positive and significant relation between retail investors’ trading and stock market liquidity. Examination of the determinants of retail investors’ trading reveals that, on average, retail investors with more diversified trading activity tend to trade when liquidity is higher, the frequency of their arrival to the market is not affected by the level of liquidity, and retail investors are willing to trade at a lower liquidity level as sellers than as buyers. Moreover, retail investors’ trading does not create price noise at the aggregate market level. Overall, the evidence suggests that retail investors contribute to market quality.     

The underwriter’s early lock-up release: Empirical evidence

A lock-up agreement is an arrangement between the underwriter and certain pre-IPO shareholders. This paper examines the influence of an underwriter’s early lock-up release on shareholder wealth. The study found significant negative abnormal returns associated with the early lock-up release annoucement. Negative abnormal returns are more pronounced for venture capital backed firms than for firms not venture capital backed. In addition, scheduled lock-up release day abnormal returns, found in previous studies to be significantly negative, are reduced for firms announcing the early lock-up release.(JEL G24, G30)     

Determinants of share price movements in emerging equity markets:: Some evidence from america’s past

Emerging equity markets are plagued by poor information, which is a barrier to outside shareholder participation. This paper examines the determinants of share prices of two United States companies over a 14-year period during the late 19^th century, when America had an emerging equity market. These two companies withheld all information on profits and assets until the end of the period, yet traded regularly. Overall, the evidence suggests that outside investors received sufficient compensation for their ignorance, and that these outsiders set the market price. An event study shows that when information about company assets was revealed, market returns were significantly changed.     

Swiss National Bank communication and investors’ uncertainty

This paper analyzes the effects of Swiss National Bank communication on stock investors’ uncertainty. Monetary policy news is identified via changes in short- and medium-term futures prices as well as by applying methods from computational linguistics and dictionary approaches to policy statements. Surprises in policy rate changes and regarding the future path of the policy rate exhibit an asymmetric effect on stock investors’ uncertainty. Moreover, by taking into account various topics addressed in the statements, I show that investors’ uncertainty decreases due to an optimistic tone in communications about economic growth. Increased uncertainty expressed in policy statements translate into increasing stock investors’ uncertainty. The results explain how news contained in monetary policy statements reduce noise in financial markets and therefore contribute to financial stability.