加息周期投资攻略

金融危机已慢慢过去,全球经济受到的伤害也在被慢慢的抚平,世界各国普遍出现了经济恢复增长的迹象,与此同时,各国开始着手调整经济政策,央行加息收紧货币已经离我们不远了.     

金融危机是格林斯潘时代的遗产

突兀而来的金融危机到底是怎么一回事呢?一开始不过是美国南方一些地区的房地产价格下跌,但到2007年8月,突然引发了一场波及全球的金融危机。美联储、欧洲中央银行等各国央行鼎力合作,终于使市场度过了最恐慌的时候。但病来如山倒,病去如     

论全球经济危机发生的多重原因及对我国的启示

爆发于2008年的全球经济危机,不是偶然发生的,有其深刻的内在原因,是一些基本经济规律发生作用的结果。贫富两极分化,虚拟经济严重脱离实体经济以及过度泡沫,垄断经济横行霸道、为所欲为,企业内部控制制度破坏严重,政府、企业和市场的关系很不协调等是不可回避、必须解决的重大问题。     

投机泡沫与市场失灵——基于行为金融理论的解释

从17世纪荷兰的“郁金香狂热”到近年来各国的股市和房地产泡沫,投机泡沫事件层出不穷,大多以崩溃告终并对经济产生了不良影响。然而,金融理论界和实务界至今尚未得出“泡沫”的公认定义,普遍的说法是美国经济学会前会长Kindleberger对泡沫的描述:“一种或一系列资产的价格在一个连续过程中陡然上涨,开始的价格上升会使人们预期价格还会上涨,于是又吸引了新的买主——这些人一般只是想通过买卖牟取利润,而对这些资产本身的使用和产生盈利的能力是不感兴趣的。”     

华尔街金融危机的根源与反思

美国次贷危机起源于政府过于宽松的货币政策所导致的房地产市场泡沫,而金融市场上的放贷机构、投资银行、保险等机构追逐私利,利用杠杆工具大量介入低质量房贷及其衍生产品等高风险市场,这两方面结合导致了房地产泡沫破灭后全球范围内的金融动荡。这启示国内决策者需要摒弃短期化行为,做到防止房地产泡沫和经济增长之间的平衡。     

房地产泡沫如何了结

环顾全球各国的房地产市场,粗略划分,市场化意味着房地产是作为投资导向的,度和政府介入的程度决定投资品属性的强弱;投资和炒卖。无非是市场化和非市场化两类。房地产既是自住消费品又是投资品,市场化程非市场化则意味着房地产以居住为导向,限制     

2009年全球经济在应对危机中逐步走出危机——对促进2010年我国经济稳健增长的六点具体建议

本文在剖析2009年全球经济缓慢步出危机影响的情况、问题基础上,对2010年在支持经济复苏同时、避免新的资产泡沫产生,如何防止热钱冲击、防范美元贬值风险、防范房地产泡沫风险、如何刺激内需增长、实现自主创新增长和防范"洋贿赂"等问题提出了六点看法与建议。     

论当前我国房地产行业的泡沫问题

近十几年来我国的经济得到了快速的发展,其中房地产行业功不可没,但与之同时,房价的快速攀升也让普通老百姓怨声载道。房价的飙升不是一个小问题．它会导致房地产行业出现泡沫化的倾向,一旦房地产泡沫破灭．将严重打击我国经济平稳的发展。本文从房地产供给、房地产需求等各个方面出发,提出了各种消除房地产泡沫的有效措施．以期尽快建立使房地产行业健康、可持续发展的体制机制,真正解决老百姓关心的居住问题。     

上半年国际经济走势回顾与展望

2007年上半年，尽管美国经济增长受房地产市场降温的影响有所放缓，但欧日及亚洲新兴市场经济体仍保持了良好的增长势头，全球经济增长总体强劲。在全球通胀风险加大的背景下，虽然近一年来美联储一直保持利率不变，但全球总体而言仍处于货币政策的紧缩周期中，各国央行仍有进一步加息的空间。[编者按]     

抗击金融风暴 尽快实现经济复苏

一、金融危机成因分析 美国是世界最大的经济实体,也是最大的资本市场,全球化使得美国在国际贸易与国际金融两个方面与全世界紧密相连,它的任何一个方面出现问题,都会给全球经济造成不良的后果.     

西班牙债务危机治理对于结构性改革的启示

文章剖析了西班牙主权债务危机的演变逻辑与救助改革举措所带来的启示。从其演变逻辑看,西班牙债务危机经历了房地产泡沫一银行业危机一主权债务信用危机的传导过程。文章回顾了西班牙政府采取的系列结构性改革举措,指出要将房地产泡沫作为经济偏离均衡的重要预警信号,警惕房地产泡沫通过地方政府债务向银行业信贷的风险传递,通过切实转变经济发展方式、协调产业发展层次来提高经济发展的质量。     

我国房地产业蕴含的金融风险及相关政策调整

本文对当前我国房地产业发展的总体情况和存在的突出矛盾进行了考察,并在此基础上,总结了上个世纪80年代以来发生的典型房地产泡沫危机,分析了房地产泡沫危机和金融危机的关系,以及目前我国房地产业潜在的风险．提出了促进我国房地产业健康发展的政策建议．自去年开始,我国政府针对房地产市场过热的问题实行了从紧的宏观调控措施．这次宏观调控的效果显现时间与美国由次贷问题引发的金融危机相重合。在国内经济政策调整和国际经济环境恶化这样一个大背景下．正确判断我国房地产市场发展情况,分析房地产市场与金融运行之间的相互影响,对于稳步实施房地产业政策调整。防范房地产泡沫与金融风险,促进房地产业、金融和经济的健康发展具有重要意义。     

货币扩张、美元本位与金融危机

本文通过金德尔伯格的金融危机理论,指出了货币供给和信贷扩张与金融危机的关系,并通过分析美元本位制下的双重风险,从更深层次指出了当今金融危机频发的真正原因,并通过次贷危机加以详细阐述.最后,本文提出了一些应对金融危机的短期和长期的策略.     

Earnings Quality in a Bubble Period: The Case of Construction Activity Firms in Spain

Housing bubbles may result in deep crises that affect all economic systems. This study investigates how the recent housing bubble in Spain has affected earnings quality during the whole bubble. To this end, we use data on mostly private construction activity firms in Spain, that is, construction and real estate companies. Earnings quality is studied by means of the predictive ability of earnings, conservatism, discretionary accruals and real earnings management. The results indicate a progressive decrease in the quality of financial reporting as the bubble develops, as managers try to conceal an underlying downward trend. We further show that earnings quality continues to decline even after the bubble bursts. Overall, this contribution, together with those of other environments, may suggest that, in a bubble context, we have to take care of firms’ earnings quality even some years before the crisis comes to the fore.     

The efficient markets hypothesis: The demise of the demon of chance?

Many commentators have suggested that economists in general and financial economists in particular have some responsibility for the recent global financial crisis. They were blinded by an irrational faith in a discredited Efficient Markets Hypothesis and failed to see the bubble in asset prices and to give due warning of its collapse. There is considerable confusion as to what this hypothesis is and what it says. The irony is that the strong implication of this hypothesis is that nobody, no practitioner, no academic and no regulator had the ability to foresee the collapse of this most recent bubble. While few economists believe it is literally true, this hypothesis is considered a useful benchmark with some important practical implications. Indeed, a case can be made that it was the failure to believe in the essential truth of this idea, which was a leading factor responsible for the global financial crisis .     

再析美国金融危机前的利率政策

全球金融危机与美国货币政策的变化密不可分,从低利率货币信贷扩张的流动性过剩到高利率的流动性紧缩,使宏观经济产生剧烈波动,前期低利率带来过剩的流动性,后期利率的提高造成巨量房地产泡沫的破灭。让美联储无视资产泡沫的原因是美联储货币政策一贯秉持的"泰勒规则"指导原则没有纳入资产价格因子,致使美联储货币政策调控失误。     

爱尔兰债务危机的近距离观察

爱尔兰债务危机主要因爱尔兰房地产泡沫的破灭以及政府对陷入困境中的银行业地毯式注资所引起,更由于外部力量的复合作用而恶化。这场危机不仅将放大欧洲银行业的风险敞口,而且可能危及欧元的存续。也正因如此,欧盟委员会和国际社会采取了果断的援救措施。不过,由于欧元区自身固有的体制性缺陷,欧债危机可能还会在其他国家继续上演。     

货币政策与资产价格:危机前后的主流认识与再认识

金融危机爆发前,理论界和政策制定者对货币政策与资产价格关系的主流认识是反对把资产价格稳定纳入货币政策目标,央行只需在泡沫破灭后通过下调利率进行干预。然而此次全球金融危机暴露了主流认识存在的诸多问题,也凸显了长期被中央银行忽视的相关问题的重要性。本文基于对以上两个问题的分析,提出了后危机时代对货币政策与资产价格关系的再认识。     

An Analysis of Thai Financial Reporting Practices and the Impact of the 1997 Economic Crisis

We focus on listed Thai companies between 1993 and 2002 to ascertain whether the 1997 economic crisis, which we refer to as an economic disturbance, had an impact on financial reporting practices. Both changes in measurement and disclosure practices are considered and the period of study is divided into three sub‐periods: the pre‐economic crisis period (1993–96), the economic crisis period (1996–98) and the post‐economic crisis period (1998–2002). The results show that there were significant increases in disclosure levels over the ten years but no substantial changes in measurement methods. This work takes on added relevance in the light of the recent (2007–08) economic bubble and subsequent financial crisis worldwide.     

Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings

We use a unique data set of hedge fund long equity and equity option positions to investigate a significant lockup-related premium earned during the tech bubble (1999–2001) and financial crisis (2007–2009). Net fund flows are significantly greater among lockup funds during crisis and noncrisis periods. Managers of hedge funds with locked-up capital trade opportunistically against flow-motivated trades of non-lockup managers, consistent with a hypothesis of rent extraction in providing crisis era liquidity. The success of this opportunistic trading is concentrated during periods of high borrowing costs, in less liquid stock markets, and is enhanced by hedging in the equity option market.