Portfolio creation using artificial neural networks and classification probabilities: a Canadian study

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - This study aims to verify whether using artificial neural networks (ANNs) to establish classification probabilities generates portfolios with higher...     

Portfolio Performance with Lending or Borrowing

The availability of a single riskless lending and borrowing interest rate is one of the underlying assumptions of the two-parameter efficient markets model. When the model is used to evaluate ex-post portfolio performance this assumption becomes too restrictive. For investors facing a borrowing rate which is higher than the lending rate, performance evaluation must take into account investment goals. It is also necessary to recognize that investors willing to assume high risk in order to obtain high returns have available a number of alternative portfolios which are efficient. La disponibilité d'un simple taux d'intérêt sur prêt ou emprunt, tout risque exclu, est une des hypothèses fondamentales du modèle des marchés actifs à deux paramètres. Lorsque le modèle sert àévaluer le rendement expost de portefeuille, cette hypothèse s'avère trop limitée. Dans le cas où les investisseurs se trouvent face à un taux d'emprunt supérieur au taux de prêt, l'évaluation du rendement doit s'effectuer en considbration des objectifs d'investissements. II faut de même préciser que les investisseurs, prêts à edosser de grands risques dans le but d'obtenir des bényéfices élevés, possèdent un nombre disponible de portefeuilles alternatifs qui sont productifs. Das Vorhandensein eines einzigen risikofreien Anlage- und Aufnahmezinssatzes stellt eine der grundsätzlichen Voraussetzungen des zweiparameterischen Effizientmarkt-Modells dar. Bei der Verwendung des Modells für die Ermittlung der ex post Portefeuilleleistung wird diese Voraussetzung zu einschränkend. Für Anleger, die einen Aufnahmezinssatz, der den Anlagezinssatz überschreitet, bezahlen müssen, muss die Leistungsermittlung Investitionsziele berücksichtigen. Ebenfalls muss berücksichtigt werden, dass Anleger, die hohe Risiken eingehen um hohe Erträge zu erreichen, über eine Anzahl von alternativen effizienten Portefeuillen verfügen.     

Portfolio risk management in a data-rich environment

We study risk assessment using an optimal portfolio in which the weights are functions of latent factors and firm-specific characteristics (hereafter, diffusion index portfolio). The factors are used to summarize the information contained in a large set of economic data and thus reflect the state of the economy. First, we evaluate the performance of the diffusion index portfolio and compare it to both that of a portfolio in which the weights depend only on firm-specific characteristics and an equally weighted portfolio. We then use value-at-risk, expected shortfall, and downside probability to investigate whether the weights-modeling approach, which is based on factor analysis, helps reduce market risk. Our empirical results clearly indicate that using economic factors together with firm-specific characteristics helps protect investors against market?risk.     

Portfolio maturity choice of Australian cash management trusts

Money Market Mutual Funds, known in Australia as Cash Management Trusts (CMTs), provide potential benefits for retail investors from pooling of funds and superior portfolio (maturity) management skills. The average maturity of CMT assets exhibits significant variation both cross sectionally and over time, but there is significant correlation between the asset maturities of different CMTs. These variations could reflect decisions about optimal asset maturity by CMT management, given their expectations of future interest rate movements. This paper examines (and rejects) the hypothesis that CMT management has superior interest rate forecasting ability by testing whether asset maturity of CMTs provides any information about future interest rate movements. The correlation between CMT maturity decisions appears to reflect the tendency of some CMTs to adjust maturity in response to current changes in market interest rates.     

Portfolio management with stochastic interest rates and inflation ambiguity

We solve, in closed form, a stock-bond-cash portfolio problem of a risk- and ambiguity-averse investor when interest rates and the inflation rate are stochastic. The expected inflation rate is unobservable, but the investor can learn about it from observing realized inflation and stock and bond prices. The investor is ambiguous about the inflation model and prefers a portfolio strategy which is robust to model misspecification. Ambiguity about the inflation dynamics is shown to affect the optimal portfolio fundamentally different than ambiguity about the price dynamics of traded assets, for example the optimal portfolio weights can be increasing in the degree of ambiguity aversion. In a numerical example, the optimal portfolio is significantly affected by the learning about expected inflation and somewhat affected by ambiguity aversion. The welfare loss from ignoring learning or ambiguity can be considerable.     

Portfolio management of islamic banks: ‘Certainty model’

The Islamic banking and finance system is recent in origin. Its special features preclude the application of modern finance theories. The system is briefly described in this paper as part of an initial attempt to develop a simple model for the portfolio management of an Islamic bank. The model is built on the assumption of certainty for one period. A numerical example based on actual data of Faisal Islamic Bank of Sudan is given to illustrate the model and reveal its relevance.     

银行统计管理信息系统的设计与实现

统计在银 行内部 管理 、宏观 决策 中发 挥着咨 询和 监督的 职能 作用。 统计 数据 的及时 、准 确 、全 面、有效 是 银行进 行正 确经营 管理 的依 据。 当前 ,落 后 的手 工操 作 方式 已 不能 满 足 银 行 对 于 统 计 工 作 日 益 严 格 、 规 范 的 要求。 银行 统计管     

Portfolio turnpikes

Profolio turnpike theorems show that if preferences at largewealth levels are similar to power utility, then the investmentstrategy converges to the power utility strategy as the horizonincreases. We state and prove two simple and general portfolioturnpike theorems. Unlike existing literature, our main resultdoes not assume independence of returns and depends only ondiscounting of future cash flows. We also provide a critiqueof portfolio turnpike results, based on the observations that(1) the time required for convergence is often too large tobe relevant, and (2) there is no convergence for consumptionwithdrawal problems.     

Portfolio analysis of asset and liability management in small-, medium- and large-sized banks

The paper presents an analysis of the commercial banking firm based on Markowitz portfolio analysis. A bank is treated as a portfolio of five banking assets and three banking liabilities. The average rate of return and risk of each asset and liability is estimated empirically for groups of banks categorized by size — small, medium and large. Banks' rates return on equity are defined as the weighted average of the assets' rates of return less the liabilities' rates of return. Quadratic programming is used to delineate the set of banking portfolios which have the maximum rate of return on equity at each level of risk.     

Portfolio management and retirement: what is the best arrangement for a family?

In comparing an immediate life annuity with a payout-equivalent investment fund payout plan (self-annuitization), research to date has focused mainly on shortfall probabilities of self-annuitization. As an exception, Schmeiser and Post (2005) propose a family strategy where the chances of self-annuitization (i.e., bequests) are taken into consideration as well. In such a family strategy, potential heirs must bear shortfall risks, but in return have a chance of receiving a bequest. This paper analyzes under which conditions heirs will be willing to agree to a family strategy. The idea of a family strategy is integrated into a realistically calibrated intertemporal expected utility framework, taking into account risks arising from stochastic life span, asset returns, and nontradable labor income. A family strategy is shown to be accepted for many parameter combinations, especially in families with low marginal tax rates, if the heirs are wealthy, or in a case where the retiree has an average population life expectancy. We also work out how family self-annuitization decisions interact with asset allocation, saving decisions, and labor income risk. Under realistic conditions our results support two explanations for the empirically observable low demand for annuities (the so-called annuity puzzle), namely intra-family risk sharing and high cost of market-annuitization.     

统计管理信息系统中指标引擎的设计与实现

目前，企业竞争实力的积聚更加依赖于信息技术和管理技术的有机结合。越来越多的商业银行采用集管理和信息技术于一体的管理信息系统，在实践中取得了良好的效果。然而就银行业而言，管理信息系统的数据量大，实效性要求高，如何对账务数据进行高效的处理分析，满足信息披露、风险监控和决策支持的需要成为银行面临的一个重要课题。     

Portfolio credit-risk optimization

This paper evaluates several alternative formulations for minimizing the credit risk of a portfolio of financial contracts with different counterparties. Credit risk optimization is challenging because the portfolio loss distribution is typically unavailable in closed form. This makes it difficult to accurately compute Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) at the extreme quantiles that are of practical interest to financial institutions. Our formulations all exploit the conditional independence of counterparties under a structural credit risk model. We consider various approximations to the conditional portfolio loss distribution and formulate VaR and ES minimization problems for each case. We use two realistic credit portfolios to assess the in- and out-of-sample performance for the resulting VaR- and ES-optimized portfolios, as well as for those which we obtain by minimizing the variance or the second moment of the portfolio losses. We find that a Normal approximation to the conditional loss distribution performs best from a practical standpoint.     

Graphical Portfolio Analysis

This paper presents a new methodology for portfolio analysis based on the correspondence between the expression for the standard deviation of a two-asset portfolio and the magnitude of the sum of two complex numbers. This approach offers a geometric alternative to traditional portfolio analysis. The pedagogical advantages of the new framework are illustrated by rederiving many efficient set mathematics results. A previously unrecognized fact is uncovered using the graphical technique that the sum of the maximum and minimum betas for efficient portfolios is 1, so knowledge of one extreme beta implies knowledge of the other.     

Option prices as probabilities

Four distribution functions are associated with call and put prices seen as functions of their strike and maturity. The random variables associated with these distributions are identified when the process for moneyness defined as the stock price relative to the forward price is a positive local martingale with no positive jumps that tends to zero at infinity. Results on calls require moneyness to be a continuous martingale as well. It is shown that for puts the distributions in the strike are those for the remaining supremum while for calls, they relate to the remaining infimum. In maturity we see the distribution functions for the last passage times of moneyness to strike.     

Bounds of ruin probabilities

Abstract

Upper and lower bounds are obtained for ruin probabilities with safety margin ρ in the case of known expectation, variance and range for the claim severity function.     

Pricing Effects of the Decision to Sell or Hold Adjustable Rate Mortgage Loans in a Portfolio

Residential mortgage originators can transfer loans to ultimate lenders quickly and efficiently using the secondary mortgage market. Some adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) lenders use this outlet consistently while others hold whole loans in their portfolios on a long-term basis. Selling and holding lenders should respond to different economic factors when setting yields on ARM loans originated because their long-term positions in the loans are so diverse. This paper develops and tests a model of differential pricing behavior for selling and holding strategies. Empirical results support the notion that lenders use different factors to price loans and that these factors are related to the risks faced by the originating lender given its origination strategy. Additional findings suggest that institutional and firm-specific pricing tendencies exist in the primary mortgage market for adjustable rate debt.     

International Portfolio Investment Flows

This article develops a model of international equity portfolio investment flows based on differences in informational endowments between foreign and domestic investors. It is shown that when domestic investors possess a cumulative information advantage over foreign investors about their domestic market, investors tend to purchase foreign assets in periods when the return on foreign assets is high and to sell when the return is low. The implications of the model are tested using data on United States (U.S.) equity portfolio flows.     

Insurance Portfolio Risk Retention

In this article, I introduce a statistic for managing a portfolio of insurance risks. This tool is based on changes in the risk profile when changes in a risk parameter, such as a deductible, coinsurance, or upper policy limit, are made. I refer to the new statistic as a risk measure relative marginal change and denote it as RM². By examining data from the Wisconsin Local Government Property Fund, I show how it can be used by an insurer to identify the “best” and “worst” risks in terms of opportunities for risk management. The RM² changes reflect the underlying dependence structure of risks; I use an elliptical copula framework to demonstrate the sensitivity of risk mitigation strategy to the dependence structure.