Trade liberalization,wages, and specialization in China

This paper studies the evolution of regional specialization in China in response to trade liberalization. Using a panel of Chinese export data at the detailed commodity level over the period of 1988–2006, we show that China’s regional specialization follows a U-shaped pattern: both the interior and coastal regions diversify from 1988 to 1994 but specialize during the later reform period of 1994–2006. A theory of tariff reductions is proposed by constructing the Dornbusch–Fischer–Samuelson (1977) continuum of goods Ricardian model in a setup of two countries and three regions. The U-shaped pattern of specialization can be obtained from foreign tariff reductions followed by Chinese tariff reductions. This finding is supported by simulations, US–China trade policy review, and the pattern of China’s coast–inland wage ratio.     

Trade liberalization and welfare: Differentiated-good versus homogeneous-good markets

In this paper, we examine the effects of liberalization on industrial location and national welfare in a framework of new economic geography. Specifically, we explicitly incorporate arbitrary trade costs in both differentiated-good and homogeneous-good sectors into a two-country model, and clarify the effects of trade-barrier reduction in each sector. We show that their impacts on welfare levels in the two countries are different, and, if an industry is liberalized while the other is protected, a conflict between the countries might occur. Therefore, appropriate liberalization in both sectors is effective to alleviate such a conflict.     

Trade liberalization and wage inequality: Evidence from Korea

This paper investigates the heterogeneous income distribution effects of trade liberalization using Korean survey data from years of 2000–2015. Following the Stolper-Samuelson theorem most of previous research studying the effects of trade liberalization on wage differences focus on workers’ characteristics (e.g., skilled or unskilled) while heterogeneity within the same worker group has not been yet substantially investigated. To fill this gap, this paper provides empirical evidence of wage inequality across firms within the same group of workers caused by trade liberalization, potentially implied in the new-new trade models with firm heterogeneity. Employing a difference-in-differences (DID) specification, we find that the wages of unskilled workers in Korea have increased since its FTAs with more advanced countries, such as members of EU and the US, came into effect, while the effects on the wages of skilled workers are negative but not statistically significant. We also show that wage effects are heterogeneous across firms within unskilled and skilled worker groups, while the positive effects are statistically significant and largest for unskilled workers in medium-large sized firms. These findings are in line with both traditional and new-new trade models.     

Trade liberalization and income inequality: The case for Pakistan

Trade liberalization policies have been adopted by many developing countries to increase economic growth and reduce poverty. While the positive relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth is generally well accepted, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and income inequality is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to use real data and real trade agreements of the state of Pakistan, to examine the predictions made by trade models about the impact of trade liberalization on income inequality. To illustrate, the impacts of several alternative bilateral and regional free trade agreements are simulated on household income and income inequality in Pakistan. The results show that trade liberalization does not always lead to a decline in income inequality in the short run. Trade agreements that do improve income equality, favor agriculture and often hinge on a decline in urban and non-farm household income. In the long run, changes in income equality are more positive, suggesting that efforts might best be applied towards improving the mobility of labor and capital.     

Trade liberalization in Mexico in the 1980s: Concepts,measures and short-run effects

Zusammenfassung Handelsliberalisierung in Mexiko in den achtziger Jahren: Konzepte, Ma?nahmen und kurzfristige Wirkungen. - In dem Artikel werden drei alternative Definitionen der Handelsliberalisierung unterschieden: Beseitigung der Au?enhandelskontrollen, Erh?hung des Importanteils auf dem Binnenmarkt und Neutralit?t der Anreize bei Verk?ufen für den in- und ausl?ndischen Markt. Die Analyse der mexikanischen Erfahrung an Hand dieser Definitionen ergibt, da? die Liberalisierung nur im Sinne der ersten Definition signifikant war. Die Wirkung der Liberalisierung wird durch eine Regressionsanalyse über die Industriezweige getestet. Offensichtlich wurden Arbeitsproduktivit?t und Exportwachstum durch die Liberalisierung günstig beeinflu?t. Allerdings ist die Wirkung der Liberalisierung ziemlich bescheiden, ist sie doch eine von mehreren Determinanten.

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Résumé La libéralisation du commerce extérieur au Méxique dans les années 1980: les concepts, les mesures et les effets à court terme. - L’auteur donne trois définitions alternatives de la libéralisation du commerce extérieur: L’enlèvement des contr?les du commerce extérieur, l’augmentation relative des importations sur le marché intérieur et la neutralité des incitations en ce qui concerne les ventes à l’extérieur et à l’intérieur. L’analyse de l’expérience du Méxique montre que la libéralisation était significative seulement au sens de la première définition. L’analyse de régression par des branches industrielles démontre que la libéralisation a stimulé la productivité de travail et les exportations. Toutefois l’impact de la libéralisation, n’étant qu’un des facteurs d’influence, est relativement modéré.

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R e s u m e n Liberalization del comercio en México en los a?os 80: conceptos, medidas y efectos de corto plazo. - En este trabajo se identifican tr?s definiciones alternativas de liberalizatión del comercio: abolition de los controles al comercio, aumento de la fractión de productos importados en el mercado interno y neutralidad de los incentivos para exportar y para vender en el mercado interno. Se discute la experiencia de México con respecte a estas definiciones, resultando ser significante sólo la primera de ellas. El impacto de la liberalizatión se estudia con ayuda de una regresión con observations a nivel de industrias. Según los criterios de la productividad laboral y del crecimiento de las exportations se détecta una asociación entre la liberalizatión y una performance mejor. Empero, el impacto de la liberalizatión es relativamente modesto, siendo este sólo uno más de los factores que actúan.

     

Trade liberalization and the structure of protection in Turkey in the 1980s: A quantitative analysis

Zusammenfassung Handelsliberalisierung und die Struktur der Protektion in der Türkei der achtziger Jahre. Eine quantitative Analyse. — Die Autoren haben die Strukturver?nderungen in der Protektion der Türkei untersucht, die sich aus den aufeinanderfolgenden Zollsatz?nderungen von 1983 bis 1989 ergaben. Sie zeigen, da\ die Revisionen der Jahre 1988 und 1989 sowohl die H?he als auch die interindustrielle Streuung der Protektion verringert haben. Trotzdem f?rdert die Struktur der Protektion noch nicht die optimale Allokation der heimischen Ressourcen, wenn man die relativen Preise an der Grenze und damit das türkische Au\enhandelspotential in Betracht zieht. Au\erdem wurde gezeigt, da\ die türkischen Exportindustrien st?rker geschützt werden als die Industrien, die mit Importen konkurrieren.

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Resumen Liberalización comercial y estructura de la protección en Turquía en los a?os 80: un análisis cuantitativo. — En este trabajo se analizan los cambios en la estructura de la protección en Turquía debidos a revisiones sucesivas de los aranceles entre 1983 y 1989. Se demuestra que las revisiones de 1988 y de 1989 han disminuído tanto el nivel como la dispersión intersectorial de la protección. A pesar de ello, la estructura de la protección aún no conduce a una asignación óptima de los recursos nacionales dados los precios relativos en la frontera y, po lo tanto, el potencial del comercio exterior turco. Además, se demuestra que las industrias de exportación turcas exhiben mayor protección que las industrias que compiten con las importaciones.

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Résumé Libéralisation du commerce et la structure de la protection en Turquie dans les années 1980: une analyse quantitative. — Cette étude a analysé les changes dans la structure de la protection en Turquie à cause de plusieurs révisions successives des tarifs douaniers de 1983 jusqu’à 1989. Il est prouvé que les révisions de 1988 et 1989 ont baissé le niveau et la dispersion inter-industrielle de la protection. Malgré cela, la structure de la protection n’est pas encore convenable à une répartition optimale des ressources nationales si l’on considère les prix relatifs à la frontière et par cela le potentiel pour le commerce extérieur de la Turquie. En outre, on peut constater qu’on protège les industries d’exportation turques plus fortement que les secteurs industriels étant en concurrence avec les importations.

     

Trade liberalization and the wage gap: the role of vertical linkages and fixed costs

This paper studies the labor market impacts of trade liberalization, and specifically tariff reductions, with a focus on the wage gap between skilled and unskilled workers in presence of vertical linkages in the fixed costs of production. To that purpose, we develop and empirically test a monopolistic competition model with variable elasticity of substitution and labor differentiated by skill level, where skilled workers are the residual claimants of savings on imported inputs. Consistently with the model predictions, we find that a 10% reduction in tariffs implies on average a 3.8% increase in the wage gap. In addition, the same level of tariff reduction is expected to lower unskilled employment in domestic production by 3.3%, which is partially offset by an expansion of unskilled employment in the export segment of production. These results are obtained matching detailed international trade data with World Input–Output Tables and EU KLEMS data on country-sector wage by skill level on 17 OECD countries from 1996 to 2005.     

Agricultural liberalization,poverty and inequality: Indonesia and Thailand

The effects of agricultural and general trade liberalization in Indonesia and Thailand are analyzed and compared using a multi-household, multi-sector integrated general equilibrium framework. In both countries agricultural protection contributes a relatively small part of the total cost of protection because when the protection is removed the gain in welfare is much smaller in the case of agricultural liberalization than across the board liberalization. In both countries the poor, urban and rural, have a strong interest in across the board liberalization of trade policy. The urban poor also have an interest in agricultural trade liberalization, but not the rural poor.     

Trade Agreements,Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: A Selective Survey

Since 1950 there has been a massive liberalization of world trade taking various forms including the formation of free trade areas, customs unions, unilateral reductions in tariff barriers, and reductions in non‐tariff barriers to trade. To what extent has this liberalization contributed to the growth performance of countries, and what are the mechanisms through which faster export growth may impact favourably on economic growth? The paper first surveys the empirical literature which seems to show that countries that participate in regional trading agreements (RTAs) fare worse than countries which reduce tariffs unilaterally, and secondly comments on the theoretical literature relating to the mechanisms through which exports affect growth. It is argued that the orthodox neoclassical supply‐side argument is only half the story, and much more emphasis needs to be placed on the effect of export performance in relaxing a balance of payments constraint on demand. Depuis 1950, le commerce mondial a connu une libéralisation considérable qui a pris diverses formes: formation de zones de libre‐échange, d’unions douanières, abaissement unilatéral des barrières tarifaires et réduction des barrières non tarifaires. Dans quelle mesure cette libéralisation a‐t‐elle contribuéà la croissance des pays et par quels mécanismes une expansion plus rapide des exportations peut‐elle influencer positivement la croissance économique? Le document passe d’abord en revue le littérature empirique qui semble démontrer que les pays qui participent à des accords commerciaux régionaux (ACR) sont en pire posture que ceux qui abaissent unilatéralement les barrières tarifaires. Le document formule ensuite des observations sur la littérature théorique concernant les mécanismes par lesquels les exportations influent sur la croissance. Il soutient que l’argument néoclassique orthodoxe axé sur l’offre n’explique pas tout, et qu’un accent plus appuyé doit à tre mis sur l’effet que les résultats à l’exportation, en tant que facteur d’atténuation des problèmes de la balance des paiements, peuvent avoir sur la demande.     

Trade Costs,Trade Balances and Current Accounts: An Application of Gravity to Multilateral Trade

In this paper we test the well-known hypothesis of Obstfeld and Rogoff (NBER Macroeconomics Annual 7777:339–390, 2000) that trade costs are the key to explaining the so-called Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Our approach has a number of novel features. First, we focus on the interrelationship between trade costs, the trade account and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle. Second, we use the gravity model to estimate the effect of trade costs on bilateral trade and, third, we show how bilateral trade can be used to draw inferences about desired trade balances and desired intertemporal trade. Our econometric results provide strong support for the Obstfeld and Rogoff hypothesis and we are also able to reconcile our results with the so-called home bias puzzle.

Insecure Resources,Bilateral Trade,and Endogenous Predation: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Conflict and Trade

This article analyzes how interstate conflict over resources affects the incentives to trade and how greater trade openness affects the endogenous decisions of arming by enemy countries. We identify conditions under which there is trade between two adversary countries and show that each adversary's arming affects domestic welfare in three different ways. The first is an export-revenue effect, which increases welfare because arming causes export revenue to go up (i.e., there is an arming-induced terms-of-trade improvement). The second is a resource-predation effect, which increases welfare because arming increases the appropriation of a rival country's resource input to produce a consumption good. The third is an output-distortion effect, which reduces welfare because arming lowers the domestic production of civilian goods. Based on these effects, we show circumstances in which greater trade openness reduces the intensity of arming. We also discuss the implications of resource security asymmetry for conflict and trade.     

Productivity,Trade, and Institutional Quality: A Panel Analysis

Recognizing that gains historically attributed to trade capture instead the roles of institutions and geography, we estimate the relationship between labor productivity and trade for a panel of countries, 1980 to 2000. We use real and nominal openness as measures of trade. The endogeneity of trade and institutional quality is accounted for with instruments. Our trade instrument is based on a theoretically motivated gravity equation and uses a more comprehensive data set than in related studies. Fixed‐ and random‐effects and system‐GMM panel estimation methods address potential biases associated with cross‐section estimations. We find a robust relationship between real openness and labor productivity from the 1990s. Countries that trade more generate higher levels of productivity, supporting an institutional theory of growth. We find evidence that countries with low‐quality institutions benefit from openness to trade and that the positive effect of trade on labor productivity is lower for more populated countries.     

Inequality,Nonhomothetic Preferences,and Trade: A Gravity Approach

We construct the first direct classification of goods as luxuries or necessities that is compatible with international trade data. We then use it to test an idea that has not been tested directly in the literature: Countries' income distributions are important determinants of their import demand, and, in particular, of the difference in their import demands of luxuries versus necessities. We interpret this result with the aid of a model in which preferences are nonhomothetic, thus relaxing a long-held and standard—but empirically dubious—assumption in the theory of international trade. Our model is strongly borne out by the results: Imports of luxuries increase with the importing country's inequality, and imports of necessities decrease with it. Our calculations imply that if income distribution in the United States became as equal as in Canada, the United States would import about 9-13% fewer luxury goods and 13-19% more necessities.     

A technique for assessing appropriate policy combinations to combat inflation,unemployment and external imbalance

Zusammenfassung Eine Methode für die Auswahl geeigneter wirtschaftspolitischer Kombinationen, um Inflation, Arbeitslosigkeit und ein au\enwirtschaftliches Ungleichgewicht zu bek?mpfen. — Eine Analyse von Kombinationen wirtschaftspolitischer Ma\nahmen zur Herbeiführung eines inneren und ?u\eren wirtschaftlichen Gleichgewichts sollte auch Situationen berücksichtigen, in denen Inflation und Arbeitslosigkeit zusammen auftreten. Um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, wird in dem vorliegenden Aufsatz die Methode angewendet, verschiedene Niveaus von Besch?ftigung und Devisenreserven mit verschiedenen Zinss?tzen und Inflationsraten in Verbindung zu bringen. Das wesentliche Ergebnis besteht darin, da\ eine Aufwertung besonders geeignet für ein Land ist, das dauernde Zahlungsusse bilanzüberschünd eine Kosteninflation aufweist. Wenn diese Kosteninflation ein ?Besch?ftigungs-Risiko? nach sich zieht, sollte eine Korrektur des Wechselkurses nach oben in Verbindung mit einer expansiven Geldpolitik angewendet werden.

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Résumé Une méthode de choisir les combinaisons de politique économique propres à combattre l’inflation, le ch?mage et le déséquilibre extérieur. — Une analyse de combinaisons de mesures de politique économique propres à maintenir l’équilibre intérieur et extérieur devrait tenir compte des situations où l’inflation et le ch?mage existent ensemble. Pour arriver à ce but, on se sert, dans cet article, de la méthode qui établit une relation entre différents niveaux d’emploi et de réserves étrangères, d’un c?té, et différents niveaux de taux d’intérêts et taux d’inflation, de l’autre c?té. La conclusion principale en est qu’une valorisation du cours des changes est spécialement à propos pour un pays avec un surplus continuel de la balance des paiements et avec une inflation qui résulte d’une pression des co?ts. Si une telle inflation des co?ts entra?ne un ?risque de l’emploi?, la valorisation devrait être employée en conjonction avec une politique monétaire expansive.

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Resumen Un método para la selectión de medidas político-económicas adecuadas para combatir inflación, paro laboral y desequilibrio externo. — El análisis de combinaciones de medidas político-económicos para la restauración del equilibrio económico interno y externo deberia considerar también situaciones en las que subsisten inflación y para laboral al mismo tiempo. A este efecto se aplica en el presente artículo un método para asociar diferentes niveles de empleo y de reservas internacionales con diversos tipos de interés y tasas de inflación. El principal resultado es que un revaluación cambiaria es particularmente apropiada para un país con superávit en la balanza de pagos crónicos e inflación de costos. Si esta inflación lleva consigo un ?riesgo de empleo? el reajuste cambiario debería ir acompa?ado de una política monetaria expansiva.

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Riassunto Un metodo per la scelta di idonee combinazioni politico-economiche per combattere inflazione, disoccupazione ed uno squilibrio economico estero. ⊕nalisi Un’di combinazioni di provvedimenti politico-economici per il conseguimento di un equilibrio economico interno ed estero dovrebbe tener conto anche di situazioni in cui inflazione e disoccupazione compaiono insieme. Per raggiungere questo scopo, nel presente articolo viene adoperato il metodo di mettere in connessione diversi livelli di occupazione e di riserve di divise con diversi tassi di interesse e rate di inflazione. Il risultato essenziale consiste nel fatto che una rivalutazione è specialmente adatta per un Paese che presenta continui avanzi nella bilancia dei pagamenti e un’inflazione dei costi. Se questa inflazione dei costi tira verso di sé un ?risico di disoccupazione?, dovrebbe essere applicata una correzione dei cambi verso l’alto in connessione con una espansiva politica monetaria.

     

哈继铭：泡沫易破 通胀难防

为应对全球金融危机,各国政府都采取了经济刺激政策。从表面上看,经济下滑的趋势似乎得到了遏制,但这样的刺激政策还要持续多久？未来的经济走势又会如何     

经济一体化下中国贸易自由化调整成本实证研究——以中国和澳大利亚自贸区建立为例

在国际经济一体化背景下,本文从边际产业内贸易的分析角度对中国和澳大利亚贸易自由化调整成本进行实证分析。首先采用A指数对1992～2008年两国23个主要工业部门的边际产业内贸易水平进行测度,然后分别采用B指数比率和S指数比率对两国主要工业部门的贸易绩效和贸易自由化调整成本进行测度,最终得到一致结论:中国主要工业部门的贸易绩效整体较好,贸易自由化调整成本相对较小,但仍需进一步改善;"中高技术密集型制造品"行业调整成本低于"初级产品"和"劳动力和资源密集型制造品"行业;大部分"中高技术密集型制造品"行业的贸易自由化调整成本呈现明显下降趋势等。     

产业结构、可贸易性与贸易不平衡:一个理论解释

一国的对外贸易不平衡可分为短期和长期两种。长期不平衡的基础是经济结构,特别是产业结构。从贸易顺差国来看,主要有石油输出国和制成品出口国。石油输出国的顺差是由石油价格的暴涨导致的,但是制成品出口国的长期顺差却是因为制成品的可贸易性远高于服务品引起的。由于制成品出口国在制造业方面有比较优势且制造业部门明显大于世界平均水平,因此它会出口制成品,进口服务品。如果两者都完全可贸易,则贸易可以平衡,但是如果服务品不完全可贸易,则不平衡就不可避免。本文主要从理论上对上述问题给出了解释。