Does Super-Department Reform Improve Public Service Performance in China?

Echoing the global public management reform movement, China’s authorities advocated ‘super-department’ reform (SDR) to curb interdepartmental conflict and administrative inefficiency. However, the related performance consequences have not been empirically investigated. We test the reform’s effects on citizen satisfaction with public services through a natural experiment involving twenty-five counties in Guangdong province (2009–2012) and the difference-in-differences method. The results show that the reform has improved public service performance, but its effects are marginal and unsustainable. We discuss the theoretical contributions and policy implications of the findings and identify future research avenues.     

Do High‐Frequency Data Improve High‐Dimensional Portfolio Allocations?

This paper addresses the debate about the usefulness of high‐frequency (HF) data in large‐scale portfolio allocation. We construct global minimum variance portfolios based on the constituents of the S&P 500. HF‐based covariance matrix predictions are obtained by applying a blocked realized kernel estimator, different smoothing windows, various regularization methods and two forecasting models. We show that HF‐based predictions yield a significantly lower portfolio volatility than methods employing daily returns. Particularly during the 2008 financial crisis, these performance gains hold over longer horizons than previous studies have shown, translating into substantial utility gains for an investor with pronounced risk aversion. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does Size Matter? Evaluating Corporate Environmental Disclosure in the Australian Mining and Metal Industry: A Combined Approach of Quantity and Quality Measurement

There are an increasing number of companies in the mining and metals sector disclosing environmental sustainability information in their annual reports, sustainability reports and corporate internet web pages. However, there is ongoing debate about the relationship between the quantity and the quality of environmental disclosure. That is, does an increase in number equate to an increase in quality? This study investigates the relationship between the quantity and the quality of environmental disclosure reports. Using content analysis, we examine the environmental disclosure of 55 Australian mining and metal companies which are listed among the Australian Securities Exchange's (ASX) Top 100 mining and metal sector companies. We find that the size of firms influences both the quantity and the quality of corporate environmental disclosure. That is, we find that market capitalization is positively and significantly correlated to the quantity (number of words) and the quality of disclosure. We also confirm that there is a very highly significant, positive correlation between quantity (number of words) and quality of environmental disclosure. In order to investigate any differences between the top performing group and the bottom performing group in terms of environmental disclosure quality, further analysis also confirms that there is a positive relationship between the quantity and the quality of environmental disclosure. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

Does Forecast Combination Improve Norges Bank Inflation Forecasts?*

We develop a system that provides model‐based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out‐of‐sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then used to derive quasi real time weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that a combination forecast improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, a combination forecast outperforms Norges Bank's own point forecast for inflation. The beneficial results are obtained using a trimmed weighted average. Some degree of trimming is required for the combination forecasts to outperform the judgmental forecasts from the policymaker.     

Does the Capitalization of Development Costs Improve Analyst Forecast Accuracy? Evidence from the UK

It has been documented that investments in Research and Development (R&D) are associated with increased errors and inaccuracy in earnings forecasts made by financial analysts. These deficiencies have been generally attributed to information complexity and the uncertainty of the future benefits of R&D. This paper examines whether the capitalization of development costs can reduce analyst uncertainty about the future economic outcome of R&D investments, provide outsiders with a better matching of future R&D‐related revenues and costs, and therefore promote accuracy in analyst forecasts. UK data is used, because accounting rules in the United Kingdom permitted firms to conditionally capitalize development costs even before the introduction of the International Financial Reporting Standards. The choice to expense R&D rather than conditionally capitalize development costs is found to relate positively to signed analyst forecast errors. This finding is robust to controlling for the influence of other factors that may affect errors, as well as for the influence of R&D investments on forecast errors. The decision to capitalize versus expense is not observed to have a significant influence on analyst forecast revisions. The findings are interpreted as evidence that the choice to capitalize as opposed to expense may help to reduce deficiencies in analyst forecasts; hence, is informative for users of financial statements. Increased informativeness is expected to have repercussions for the effectiveness with which analysts produce earnings forecasts, and, as a result, market efficiency.     

Does Measurement Error Bias Fixed‐effects Estimates of the Union Wage Effect?

This paper compares estimates of the union wage effect using cross-section and panel estimators for male manual full-time and female employees using data from the British Household Panel Survey, 1991-1997. A comparison of cross-section and panel estimates suggests that unobserved heterogeneity biases cross-section estimates upwards. However, it is also found that the divergence between estimates is overstated because measurement error biases the fixed-effects estimates downward. Reducing measurement error in the union variable by taking averages and restricting changes in union status to occur only when a change in employer and/or job takes place increases fixed-effects estimates of the union wage effect.     

Providing Shelters or Low Income Housing? An Optimal Control Model

An optimal control model is developed to model the choice between short-term safety nets (shelter beds) and longer term investments (low income housing) for the alleviation of literal homelessness (people sleeping on the street). Society's objective function depends negatively on literal homelessness and the budget expenditure to fight it. A steady-state saddle point solution is found. The model is extended to take into account incentive effects in the provision of shelters and leakage effects in the provision of low income housing.Journal of Economic Literature ClassificationNumbers: H53, R21, C61.     

The Role of Statistics in the Data Revolution?

The nature of data is rapidly changing. Data sets are becoming increasingly large and complex. Modern methodology for analyzing these new types of data are emerging from the fields of Data Base Managment, Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, Pattern Recognition, and Data Visualization. So far Statistics as a field has played a minor role. This paper explores some of the reasons for this, and why statisticians should have an interest in participating in the development of new methods for large and complex data sets.     

Does training facilitate SME's performance?

This study explores relationships between small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI-related training programs and organizational performance. To determine if the implementation of training programs mediate the relationship between FDI and SME performance, and if the alignment between training needs and training implementation leads to higher SME performance, we collected large-scale company-level data (N = 816) from within Taiwan.

Research results suggest that FDI leads to higher SME performance. This relationship was partially mediated by the implementation of FDI-related training programs. Unexpectedly, the results also suggest that higher levels of training need attenuate the positive relationship between FDI-related training implementations and SME performance. This implies that the alignment between SME training needs and training implementation may be of a more complicated nature than was previously thought. Practical implications and suggestions for future research are also identified.     

Does politics make a difference?

Abstract

The concern of this article is the nature of the politics of public expenditure and whether changes in government between the Conservative Governments of Mrs Thatcher and the Blair Governments did reflect differences in policy priorities? The Thatcher Government in 1979 had announced that public expenditure was at the heart of Britain's economic problems. The Blair Governments did not seek to change the expenditure plans outlined by the outgoing Chancellor Kenneth Clarke. This study seeks to show that the analysis of data using long term trends for the post war period that the during the years of the Thatcher Government they government did manage to hold expenditure below its long term grwoth trends which in turn meant reductions in health and education spending while there were additional spending in law and order and defence. By contrast the Blair Government has managed to reverse this trend so that during the years of the Balir Government expenditure on socal provision has been expanding above the trend.     

Does diversification promote systemic risk?

We measure systemic risk when faced with simulated shocks through the systemic model of banking originated losses. The formation mechanism of systemic risk is explored from the perspective of investment diversification and asset similarity. The results indicate that contagion risks formed by the over similarity of investment assets are the main cause of systemic risk. The similarity generally promotes contagion risks, however, it shows a double-faced effect for state-owned commercial banks that disperse shocks from counterparties through their too-big-to-fail advantages. The similarity is determined by diversification, which initially promotes similarity and disperses it after a threshold. The diversification acts on the contagion process of systemic risk by the mediation of the similarity. Therefore, diversification generally has a nonlinear impact on systemic risk. The results provide regulatory implications for the systemic stability of the banking system.     

Does Service Bundling Reduce Churn?

We examine whether bundling in telecommunications services reduces churn using a series of large, independent cross sections of household decisions. To identify the effect of bundling, we construct a pseudo‐panel dataset and utilize a linear, dynamic panel‐data model, supplemented by nearest‐neighbor matching. We find bundling does reduce churn for all three “triple‐play” services. The effect is only “visible” during times of turbulent demand. We also find evidence that broadband was substituting for pay television in 2009. This analysis highlights that bundling helps with customer retention in service industries, and may play an important role in preserving contracting markets.     

Managerial Efficiency in Higher Education Using Individual Versus Aggregate Level Data. Does the choice of Decision Making Units Count?

This paper explores the use of a data envelopment analysis approach to decompose student's under‐attainment in a part attributable to the Faculties they are enrolled in and a part attributable to the students themselves. The mean measure of each Faculty's teaching efficiency is calculated using both individual and aggregate data. The results show that efficiency measures at aggregate level reflect both the student's effort and the characteristics of the institution to which they belong, suggesting that they might lead to ambiguous results. The estimates also reveal that Faculties need to stimulate their student's effort in order to perform better. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What Does Trade Openness Measure?

An empirical measure of trade openness is defined as the ratio of total trade to GDP, and represents a convenient variable routinely used for cross‐country studies on a variety of issues. However, the effects that the crude measure captures remain ambiguous, making it difficult to interpret the empirical results. Drawing on several strands of the literature, this study examines the informational content of the trade openness measure using intranational and international data. We find that, even for fully integrated economies within a country, trade openness is approximately half as variable as it is for segmented diverse countries around the world. The information it conveys is better characterized as the extent of the economic remoteness and idiosyncratic distribution of sectoral production. The cross‐country variation of trade openness derives more from the variability in GDP than trade.