世界经济进入新一轮扩张期--兼论油价对世界经济影响的弱化

世界经济正处于新一轮经济周期的上升期。2004年世界经济强劲增长5.1%,2005年,经济丧事将有所回落,但发展势头良好。美国经济仍是世界经济的引学,亚洲是世界经济增长中心。发展中国家经济已进入发展的黄金期。今后5-10年,世界经济增幅有望于上世纪80-90年代。原因是：（1）“新经济”逐渐复苏,推动了新一轮科技创新,国内技术合作升温,企业战略联盟加强,企业业务外包盛行,学科间交叉融合深化,再次凸现了科技对世界经济的拉动作用：（2）国际贸易再次活跃,在未来数年中,国际贸易增长将决于世界经济增长,再次成为拉动世界经济发展的重要因素;（3）外国直接投资恢复增长,跨国并购再度活跃;（4）各国通胀压力依然不大,未来数年各国央行仍然维持中性利率政策,宏观经济环境依然宽松。在油价持续走高的情况下,世界经济依然走强,表明高油价对世界经济的影响减弱,世界经济的发展势头不可逆转。     

高油价影响我国经济

从2004年初以来，国际油价急剧攀升，文章分析了原油价格居高不下的原因，对未来油价的走势及其对我国经济的影响和冲击进行了预测，面对这种情况我国必须采取应对措施：树立节能消费理念；促进技术创新，推动产业升级；建立石油战略储备、推出原油期货、推动多元化战略等。     

The Political Economy of Price Cap Regulation

The last decade has witnessed a dramatic substitutionof price cap regulation for rate-of-return regulationin the telecommunications industry. The 1996Telecommunications Act empowers state regulators toset the terms of competitive entry in local telephonemarkets. We investigate whether the form of regulationendogenously affects the regulator's behavior withrespect to competitive entry. The evidence revealsthat regulators in price cap jurisdictions tend to setmore liberal terms of entry in comparison withregulators in rate-of-return jurisdictions. Thissuggests that price cap regulation suffers fromincomplete contracting, undermining the potentiallysuperior incentive properties of this importantregulatory reform.     

我国航空燃料的生产与价格分析

随着我国国民经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高，我国航空煤油的消费呈高速增长的势头，中国石油和中国石化对所属部分炼厂炼油能力的扩建，从能力上可以保障国航煤的供应。由于生产航煤的经济性与航煤和柴油的价差相关，从国际上较长时期航煤和柴油的价差看，当航煤价格比柴油价格高140元／t左右时，生产航煤和生产柴油的经济性基本相当。从航煤的价格影响因素看，原油价格直接影响着航煤的价格。由于我国成品油定价机制的特殊性，航煤价格主要受国际原油市场价格、国内石油和油品比价和国内成品油市场的供求关系等多种因素的影响。     

Clientele Effects on the Demand For Housing Price Appreciation

If house buyers are segmented by income, one might expect to observe buyers in such markets valuing the benefits of expected capital gain differently. Presumably, individuals experiencing higher marginal tax rates should be inclined to pay relatively more for anticipated capital gain since the opportunities of sheltering such income from taxation are greater. This paper attempts to identify a proxy for expected capital gain by using the hedonic price methodology to predict a recent price series for each housing unit in a sample of sales. That proxy is then used to determine an individual buyer's marginal willingness to pay for anticipated price appreciation. The results indicate that one cannot reject the joint hypothesis that homebuyers naively extrapolate from prior implied price performance to establish future price expectations and the variation in willingness to pay for that expectation may be a function of the buyer's income. This suggests the existence in housing markets of a phenomenon termed the clientele effect. This effect has been the subject of considerable examination in the finance literature.     

试论网络经济对金融支持系统的制度需求

一、网络产品的供求分析1 .网络产品的供给分析网络产品以知识为主要的生产要素 ,其高技术性使它的科研成本很高 ,往往需要大量的资金和多位技术人员的合作。网络产品从最初一个想法成为现实产品需要的固定成本非常高 ,而且这种科研成本是“沉没成本”( Sunk- cost) ,即如果停止生产就无法挽回的成本。与此同时 ,一旦网络产品研制成功 ,它的边际生产成本很低。软件的生产只要复制就行 ,所需的只是载体的成本。网景 ( Netscape)公司生产第一套 Navigator化了 30 0 0万美元 ,而以后的边际生产成本是 1美元。同样 ,在服务器的承受范围内 ,网…     

日本汽车节油经验及其对我国的启示

日本是单车年平均燃料消耗量最低的国家,2000年的平均单车年油耗为1．069吨。日本在促进汽车节油方面,一是实行高油价政策,日本的石油价格是美国的四倍多,油价中所含税收是美国的六倍多;二是完善汽车燃油税收政策,日本与汽车相关的税收共有九种,其中燃油税包括汽油税、柴油税、地方道路税和天然气税,属中央与地方共享税;三是建立排放交易制度,对汽车用油标准提出更高的要求。日本的清洁能源汽车有混合动力汽车、电动汽车、压缩天然气汽车、液化石油气（LPG）汽车和甲醇汽车,发展前景各不相同。通过对日本汽车节油经验的研究和分析,我们可以得到一些启示：修订我国现行的《节能法》,制定汽车节能的标准、目标、步骤等;运用政策杠杆,实行高油价和高税收政策;鼓励汽车制造企业进行技术创新,加快清洁能源汽车发展步伐。     

The Impact of Foreign Competition and New Technologies on the Demand for Heterogeneous Labor

This paper investigates the impact which foreign competition, investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) and investment in capital goods other than ICT-related have on the demand for heterogeneous labor. A dynamic interrelated factor demands model serves as the theoretical framework and is estimated by an ordered probit model. Cross-sectional data from a business survey in the service sector are used in the empirical analysis.It turns out that skill-biased technological change is adeterminant of the recent decline in relative demand for lowskilled labor in the business-related services sector.Expected foreign competition positively affects the demandfor unskilled workers and for workers with completed vocationaltraining, while it leaves the demand for the other skill groupsunchanged.     

Stock Price and Management Changes: The Case of REITs

This paper examines the relationship between a Real Estate Investment Trust's (REIT's) stock returns and top management changes. The results indicate an inverse relationship between the probability of a management change and a REIT's recent stock price performance. This is consistent with internal monitoring of management activities by the board of directors, other top managers, or large block shareholders.     

会展经济的多米诺效应

这几年,会展经济发展迅速,国际、国内的各种交易会、博览会、展示会、展览会此起彼伏,宣传广告也是铺天盖地,厂家、商家乐此不疲,推动了一方经济的发展.     

原油、汽油价格对燃料乙醇生产成本的影响分析

利用投入产出方法，分析了原油价格、汽油价格与燃料乙醇成本间的关系，并以玉米乙醇、小麦乙醇和木薯乙醇为例，考虑到燃料乙醇的热值只有普通汽油的0．658倍，计算出三种生物质生产燃料乙醇等能量的汽油价格等于乙醇生产成本三个临界点。结果表明，原油的价格上涨到57．95美元／桶时，汽油的价格将上涨到3．751元／L，理论上用三种生物质中的任意一种生产燃料乙醇就不需要政府的补贴的，在生产燃料乙醇中，三种生物质木薯燃料乙醇的经济性最好。     

新经济及对中国经济与企业的挑战

新经济是指２０世纪９０年代以来美国经济出现的新现象、新规律的反映。新经济不是对未来的预测,而知识经济是指未来的社会经济特征。美国新经济的主要特征为经济高增长与低业、低通胀并存,新经济的出现对世界经济、城市发展、企业组织管理的影响是巨大的。中国应在继续完成工业化的同时,努力发展新经济,以使中国的企业愈来愈多地具有“新经济”企业的特点。     

Listing Price, Time on Market, and Ultimate Selling Price: Causes and Effects of Listing Price Changes

Information about price changes during a home's marketing period is typically missing from data used to investigate the listing price, selling price, and selling time relationship. This paper incorporates price revision information into the study of this relationship. Using a maximum-likelihood probit model, we examine the determinants of list price changes and find evidence consistent with the theory of pricing behavior under demand uncertainty. Homes most likely to undergo list price changes are those with high initial markups and vacant homes, while homes with unusual features are the least likely to experience a price revision. We also explore the impact of missing price change information on estimating a representative model of house price and market time. Our results suggest that mispricing the home in the initial listing is costly to the seller in both time and money. Homes with large percentage changes in list price take longer to sell and ultimately sell at lower prices.     

近年国内燃料油市场变化分析

对近两年国内燃料油市场供需状况、价格走势及变化原因进行分析，并对后市状况进行了分析预测。     

资产价格波动与实体经济稳定研究

资产价格波动影响实体经济的程度与机制,一直备受关注。与国内其他相关研究相比,本文在样本选择上突出了资产价格波动影响消费和投资的针对性。通过构建引入资产价格的局部均衡分析模型和IS-LM扩展模型,本文采用现代时间序列分析的ADF检验、Granger因果检验、Johansen协整检验、VECM检验、脉冲响应函数和预测方差分解等多种方法进行研究,揭示了我国资产价格波动与实体经济稳定之间的相关性、因果关系、影响程度、影响过程和影响机制。     

国际油价新探讨

美国WTI和英国布伦特原油价格可以引导其他低硫轻质原油的价格走势,但是并不代表全球石油价格的平均水平。由于全球所产石油的60％～70％都是高硫或重质原油,而高硫或重质原油价格相对平稳,所以,近期世界石油价格平均水平并非暴涨。由于各国对环保要求的不断提高,炼油厂对低硫轻质原油的需求急增,从而使国际上低硫轻质原油和高硫重质原油的价格差距越拉越大。由于低硫轻质原油增产潜力有限以及炼厂加工设备短期内难以得到改善,因此,这种状况将会持续数年,并且还将导致世界炼油工业出现两极分化。在将来相当长的一段时间内,世界将不会面临石油供应短缺,但消费者需要付出更高的价格。油价大涨是石油市场发生结构性变化的结果,是石油价值回归的体现,是市场选择的结果。油价大涨对我国经济来说,既有挑战,也有机遇。因此,科学地研究和客观地认识国际石油市场并制定相应的合理对策至关重要。     

我国城市供水需求侧管理与水价体系研究

水资源的稀缺性使得水需求侧管理成为城市供水规制的重要内容。本文对水需求侧管理与水价体系的关系进行了实证的检验。结果表明,价格水平与价格结构均对人们的水需求产生了显著的影响。这意味着在我国水价体系可以作为水需求侧管理的主要手段以激励人们节约用水。本文进一步考察了水价的影响因素,并提出了水价体系改革的建议。     

House Price Changes and Idiosyncratic Risk: The Impact of Property Characteristics

Although the average change in house prices is related to changes in fundamentals or perhaps market-wide bubbles, not all houses in a market appreciate at the same rate. The primary focus of our study is to investigate the reasons for these variations in price changes among houses within a market. We draw on three theories for guidance, one related to the optimal search strategy for sellers of atypical dwellings, another focusing on the bargaining process between a seller and potential buyers and the third relying on the concept of land leverage. We hypothesize that houses will appreciate at different rates depending on the characteristics of the property and the change in the strength of the housing market. These hypotheses are supported using data from three New Zealand housing markets.     

绿色经济问题研究新进展

顺应新发展理念的提出,2016 年学者们对绿色经济相关问题进行了广泛而深入的研究,主要在环境效率、环境规制绩效和绿色发展三方面取得了卓有成效的进展。一是从环境效率评估方法、环境效率状况和区域差异等方面对环境效率进行了评估,并拓展研究了环境效率的影响因素;二是从评估环境政策、税收、排污权分配、碳交易等环境规制绩效入手,理论和实证分析了环境规制的影响因素和绩效改进方向;三是探讨了绿色发展的可能性,提出了优化产业结构、加强地区联防联控、推出碳交易政策、优化城市结构和规划、促进共享经济发展和优化环境管理手段等绿色发展的路径选择。