Wage-setting institutions as industrial policy

Centralized wage-setting arrangements compress wage differentials along many dimensions, but how do they affect employment structure? To address this issue, we relate the evolution of US–Swedish differences in the industry distribution of employment to relative wages between and within industries. We find that centralized wage setting shifted Swedish employment away from industries with high wage dispersion among workers, a high mean wage and, especially, a low mean wage. The dissolution of Sweden's centralized wage-setting beginning in 1983 led to widening wage differentials and a reversal in the evolution of US–Swedish differences in industry structure.     

The effects of dollar appreciation on sectoral labor market adjustments: Theory and evidence

We examine the extent to which exchange rate fluctuations affect sectoral employment and wages in the United States. We introduce a theoretical rational expectation model that decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. The model demonstrates the effects of demand and supply channels on the response of the nominal wage and labor employment to changes in the exchange rate. The evidence indicates that the deflationary effect dominates on industrial nominal wage in manufacturing and transportation industries in the face of dollar appreciation. More importantly, there is evidence of a decrease in employment growth in several industries in response to dollar appreciation, which is statistically significant in construction and at the aggregate level. This evidence is consistent with a decrease in labor demand given the loss of competitiveness of U.S. products following dollar appreciation. There are negative effects of dollar appreciation on labor market conditions in the United States. Nonetheless, dollar appreciation is consistent with an increase in employment growth in the mining sector where the share of imports is the largest among U.S. industries.     

The distribution of changes in manufacturing employment and the impact of the minimum wage

That employment for workers in durable goods industries is more sensitive to the pace of economic activity than for non-durable goods employees is not a surprising result. What is noteworthy about the conclusions of this study, however, is the manner in which increases in the minimum wage have altered the distribution of employment and sensitivity to short-run changes in employment of production workers in manufacturing industries. By focusing on the distribution of employment and how that distribution changes over the cycle, estimates of some aspects of the impact of the minimum wage that have not previously been analyzed have been developed.The evidence indicates that increases in the minimum wage over the period 1947–1975 have had a significant impact on employment patterns. Minimum wage legislation has had the effect of decreasing the share of projected employment and increasing vulnerability to cyclical changes in employment for the group of workers most ‘marginal’ to the work force low-wage industry employees. Hence, as a result of increased minimum wages, low-wage industry employees are able to obtain fewer jobs during periods of normal employment growth and their jobs are less secure in the face of short-run employment variations.Minimum wage legislation has undoubtedly resulted in higher wages for some of the relatively-low-productivity workers who were able to obtain employment than these workers would have received in its absence. The cost in terms of lost employment opportunities and cyclical vulnerability of jobs, however, has apparently been borne most heavily by low-wage industry employees. The primary beneficiaries of the shifts in the pattern of employment shares occasioned by minimum wage increases were high-wage industry workers, particularly in the ordnance, food, tobacco, and petroleum industries.     

Inter-city wage differentials and intra-city workplace centralization

We explore the interaction of inter-city and intra-city wage differentials by occupation. The paper makes two main contributions. 1) We construct an occupation-specific index of workplace centralization that accounts for the difference between average employment density from the perspective of employees in each occupation and average employment density from the perspective of all employees. 2) We provide empirical evidence that relative wages of central to non-central occupations increase with city size, or equivalently, the elasticity of wages with respect to city size increases with occupational centrality. We conjecture that this empirical regularity arises because, as city size increases, workers in more central occupations face an increasingly less desirable locus of housing prices and commuting times relative to workers who have jobs in residential areas. The results are robust to the inclusion of individual-specific human capital variables and city-specific fixed effects.     

Firms' price and wage adjustment in Europe: Survey evidence on nominal stickiness

This paper presents new evidence on the patterns of price and wage adjustment in European firms and on the extent of nominal rigidities. It uses a unique dataset collected through a firm-level survey conducted in 17 European countries and covering various sectors. Several conclusions are drawn from this evidence. Firms adjust wages less frequently than prices, on average every 15 and 10 months, respectively. Price and, especially, wage adjustment exhibit a substantial degree of time-dependence. In particular, wage changes tend to cluster at a specific time of the year, mostly January in the majority of countries. The results of a multivariate analysis indicate that prices are more flexible when competitive pressures in product markets are strong and when labor costs account for a lower fraction of firms' total costs, whereas wages are more flexible when bargaining is decentralized and when the coverage of collective bargaining and the stringency of employment protection legislation are low. Price rigidities are higher in firms with a larger share of high-skilled/white-collar workers.     

Trade Affected Workers in the Service Sector

A bstract . Using input output data for 1987 and 1990, this study identified those groups of service sector workers most vulnerable to trade-related employment displacements. Relative to other industry groups, workers (both black and white) in service industries which experienced an increase in (positive) net trade-related employment, were more likely to be male, elderly (over 65 years of age), less educated (high school graduates) and unskilled (laborers). In contrast, service industries which suffered a decline in (positive) net trade-related employment between 1987 and 1990, were relatively more skill-intensive (as measured by the share of college educated workers, scientists, engineers and managers in the labor force) , and more likely to employ women, married couples and individuals in the 25 to 35 age bracket. Union members on the other hand, were overrepresented in service industries which suffered net trade–related employment losses in 1987 and 1990. The latter industries, however, experienced an improvement over the period.     

Managing knowledge: changing ways of wealth creation

R&D will have to be at the core of enterprises which expect to prosper in the new economy. Investors now realise there is a link between R&D investment and long-term growth, so share prices are boosted for companies which know how to extract value from R&D spending. The IT and pharmaceutical industries are probably the leaders in new ways of managing knowledge more effectively.     

Wage premia and skill upgrading in Italy: why didn't the hound bark?

This paper presents firm-level evidence on the change of the employment share and the wage premium of non-manual workers in Italian manufacturing during the nineties. We find that the relative stability of the aggregate wage premium and employment share hides offsetting disaggregate forces: technical progress raises the relative demand for skilled labor within firms, whereas demand changes associated with trade reduce the relative demand for skills. Moreover, it is within the class of non-manual workers that most of the action takes place: the wage premium and employment share of executives rise substantially, while those of clerks fall in a similar proportion. Finally, we find that the export status of firms plays a key role in explaining labor market dynamics: exporters account for most of both demand-related and technology-related shifts. Overall, our results for Italy question the conventional view that the labor market is “rigid” due to labor market institutions.     

The international fragmentation of Austrian manufacturing: The effects of outsourcing on productivity and wages

Since the fall of the Iron Curtain, Austria and other small, open Western European countries have increasingly outsourced part of their production to the Eastern transition countries. This study assesses the effects of fragmentation of Austrian manufacturing on total factor productivity and mandated factor prices. Outsourcing to the East significantly improves domestic growth in total factor productivity, but possibly less in low-skill, labor-intensive industries and more in capital-intensive ones. Estimates of the mandated wage regressions suggest that in the presence of perfect factor markets wages would be lower for low-skilled workers and higher for high-skilled workers as a result of outsourcing.     

Foreign ownership,human capital,and the structure of wages in Japan

We examine the differences in the structure of wages between domestic and foreign-owned establishments in Japan. We use high-quality datasets from the Japanese government and construct a large employer–employee matched database consisting of 1 million workers in 1998. Our results confirm that foreign-owned establishments in Japan pay higher wages. We estimate that one percentage increase in foreign-ownership share of equity raises wages by 0.3%. We surmise that this foreign-ownership wage premium can be explained, at least in part, by compensating wage differentials. Workers in foreign-owned establishments are not protected by lifetime employment. They receive higher compensation for being exposed to higher risk and forfeiting their employment security. We also find that in foreign-owned establishments, wages are determined more by general skills, and less by firm-specific skills. These effects become more pronounced among establishments with a higher share of foreign ownership. The gender wage gap is considerably smaller among foreign establishments. Given the lack of long-term prospects for women in the Japanese labor market, foreign-owned establishments may be one source of ‘brain drain’ for highly skilled women there.     

Noncognitive skills, occupational attainment, and relative wages

This paper examines whether men's and women's noncognitive skills influence their occupational attainment and, if so, whether this contributes to the disparity in their relative wages. We find that noncognitive skills have a substantial effect on the probability of employment in many, though not all, occupations in ways that differ by gender. Consequently, men and women with similar noncognitive skills enter occupations at very different rates. Women, however, have lower wages on average not because they work in different occupations than men do, but rather because they earn less than their male colleagues employed in the same occupation. On balance, women's noncognitive skills give them a slight wage advantage. Finally, we find that accounting for the endogeneity of occupational attainment more than halves the proportion of the overall gender wage gap that is unexplained.     

Spatial changes in labour market inequality

We study spatial changes in labour market inequality for US states and MSAs using Census and American Community Survey data between 1980 and 2010. We report evidence of significant spatial variations in education employment shares and in the college wage premium for US states and MSAs, and show that the pattern of shifts through time has resulted in increased spatial inequality. Because relative supply of college versus high school educated workers has risen faster at the spatial level in places with higher initial supply levels, we also report a strong persistence and increased inequality of spatial relative demand. Bigger relative demand increases are observed in more technologically advanced states that have experienced faster increases in R&D and computer usage, and in states where union decline has been fastest. Finally, we show the increased concentration of more educated workers into particular spatial locations and rising spatial wage inequality are important features of labour market polarization, as they have resulted in faster employment growth in high skill occupations, but also in a higher demand for low wage workers in low skill occupations. Overall, our spatial analysis complements research findings from labour economics on wage inequality trends and from urban economics on agglomeration effects connected to education and technology.     

Long-term Unemployment in the Canadian Labor Market

A bstract . Examination of the distribution of long-term unemployment in the Canadian labor market employing longitudinal administrative unemployment insurance data for the 1975–79 period indicates that over relatively long time periods, unemployment tends to be concentrated among those who have multiple unemployment episodes over time. By implication, high unemployment spell frequencies indicate a high propensity for re-employment. A great deal of long-term unemployment is found in lower skilled occupations and in seasonal occupations and industries. Youth and adult women comprise a proportion of long-term unemployed roughly commensurate with their share of the labor force.     

Accounting for wage and employment changes in the US from 1968–2000: A dynamic model of labor market equilibrium

In this article, we present a unified treatment of and explanation for the evolution of wages and employment in the US over the last 30 years. Specifically, we account for the pattern of changes in wage inequality, for the increased relative wage and employment of women, for the emergence of the college wage premium and for the shift in employment from the goods to the service-producing sector. The underlying theory we adopt is neoclassical, a two-sector competitive labor market economy in which the supply of and demand for labor of heterogeneous skill determines spot market skill rental prices. The empirical approach is structural. The model embeds many of the features that have been posited in the literature to have contributed to the changing US wage and employment structure including skill-biased technical change, capital-skill complementarity, changes in relative product-market prices, changes in the productivity of labor in home production and demographics such as changing cohort size and fertility.     

THE REAL WAGE GAP

Over the past year a gap has opened up between the growth of manufacturing productivity and that of real wages. This gap cannot persist indefinitely, but it can be closed in many different ways. The best that can happen is that wage settlements fall while output and productivity accelerate. The worst outcome would be continued stagnation of real output and no deceleration of wages, in which case the required productivity improvement would have to come about through renewed labour shedding. There are worrying signs that this has started to happen. An intermediate solution might involve a fall in the exchange rate, with some improvement in competitiveness boosting real output (so that UK producers get a larger share of buoyant consumer spending) and some rise in prices holding back real wages.
We continue to believe that the most likely outcome is a rise in output and a fall in the rate of wage settlements. In our June forecast this occurs despite a fall in the real exchange rate. In these circumstances we expect the growth of unit labour costs to fall back from its current high level so that the current 3 per cent inflation rate becomes a true "core" rate. But a moderate fall in the real exchange rate may prove hard to achieve, especially if the oil price continues to weaken. We therefore explore what would happen if the required depreciation happens more rapidly, so that interest rates have to remain high to prevent it getting out of control. In this case we would expect lower growth and higher inflation than we forecast in June.     

Unemployment and compensating wages: an analysis of shift work

Compensating wages have been documented for a number of job attributes including working non-standard hours. Using data that aggregates across occupations, our analysis confirms a wage premium for working night shifts. However, the compensating wage is greater in areas where unemployment is low, suggesting that employers are less pressured to compensate for night shifts when employment opportunities are relatively scarce. If this result holds for other undesirable work characteristics, such as risk of death on the job, then weak labor markets will have lower compensating wages in general.     

Can a minimum wage increase employment and reduce prices in a neoclassical perfect information economy?

This paper investigates the possibility that the imposition of a minimum wage increases employment in the affected sector, measured in terms of hours of work, and lowers product prices. Unlike related prior theoretical research, I consider a neoclassical perfect information economy. Both labor and product markets are assumed to be perfectly competitive. Workers choose the number of hours of work and their effort level. Workers can potentially, but not necessarily, differ in their preferences over income, leisure, and effort. Effort is perfectly observable by the employers. The general framework that highlights the channels through which a minimum wage can increase employment and reduce prices is introduced and necessary and sufficient conditions derived. The paper also develops a number of comparative statics and some illustrative examples. The results provide a simple theoretical foundation that explains some recent findings of the empirical literature on minimum wages. Auxiliary results help explain the effects of minimum wage on the entire wage distribution in a way that is consistent with empirical findings. Finally, welfare analysis shows that worker welfare and employment tend to go in opposite directions; in particular, if employment increases after the imposition of the minimum wage, worker welfare will be reduced, though not necessarily vice versa (the opposite is true for consumer welfare). Strikingly, if a minimum wage increases worker welfare, the chief beneficiaries are not the affected workers but those with incomes that exceed the minimum wage.     

Empirical evidence on occupation and industry specific human capital

This paper presents instrumental variables estimates of the effects of firm tenure, occupation specific work experience, industry specific work experience, and general work experience on wages using data from the 1979 Cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The estimates indicate that both occupation and industry specific human capital are key determinants of wages, and the importance of various types of human capital varies widely across one-digit occupations. Human capital is primarily occupation specific in occupations such as craftsmen, where workers realize a 14% increase in wages after five years of occupation specific experience but do not realize wage gains from industry specific experience. In contrast, human capital is primarily industry specific in other occupations such as managerial employment where workers realize a 23% wage increase after five years of industry specific work experience. In other occupations, such as professional employment, both occupation and industry specific human capital are key determinants of wages.     

行业劳动收入份额的影响因素与差距：基于卡莱斯基理论的解析

卡莱斯基从工业制品的定价模式出发,提出了垄断程度决定工资份额的理论.本文以此为基础,首先把行业工资份额的决定归结为行业的价格加成率、技术构成和工资率等直接变量,分析了各直接变量的影响因素,评述了卡莱斯基理论的进步性与局限性;其次利用中国工业细分行业的面板数据,把行业劳动收入份额的差距解析为价格加成率、技术构成和工资率的差距,并验证了直接变量的影响因素;最后就中国的国有企业改革、产业结构升级和收入分配改善等问题提出了若干建议.     

A SURVEY OF THE EFFECTS OF THE MINIMUM WAGE ON PRICES

Abstract.  It is well established in the literature that minimum wage increases compress the wage distribution. Firms respond to these higher labour costs by reducing employment, reducing profits, or raising prices. While there are hundreds of studies on the employment effect of the minimum wage, there are merely a handful of studies on its profit effects, and only a couple of dozen studies on its price effects. Furthermore, a comprehensive survey on minimum wage price effects is not available in the literature. Given the policy relevance of this neglected issue, in this paper we summarize and critically compare the available evidence on the effects of minimum wages on prices.