技术外溢与吸收能力:基于开放经济下的内生增长模型分析

通过构建中间产品种类扩张型的内生增长模型，本文探讨了开放经济条件下技术外溢与本国技术吸收能力影响长期经济增长的内在机理。对模型的竞争性市场均衡分析得到了均衡增长路径的稳态增长率，并就解的政策含义进行了讨论。模型的基本结论是：技术吸收能力的提高、人力资本积累以及适度的知识产权保护有利于长期经济增长，然而贸易开放度、技术水平差距对稳态增长率的影响效应具有不确定性。     

Strategic R&D Location by Multinational Firms: Spillovers, Technology Sourcing, and Competition

This paper develops a model of strategic interaction in R&D internationalization decisions between two multinational firms, competing both abroad and in their home markets. It examines different incentives for foreign R&D faced by a technology leader and a technology laggard. The model takes into account the impact of local inter firm R&D spillovers, (noncostless) international intra firm transfer of knowledge, and the notion that internal R&D increases the effectiveness of incoming spillovers. Analytical results suggest that greater efficiency of intra firm transfers and greater R&D spillovers increase the attractiveness of domestic R&D for the technology leader if the technology gap with the laggard is large. The lagging firm, in contrast, increases the share of foreign R&D as foreign technology sourcing becomes more effective. Competition encourages the leading firm to engage in foreign R&D to capture a larger share of profits on the foreign market, whereas the laggard concentrates more R&D at home to defend its home market position.     

Training,adverse selection and appropriate technology: Development and growth in a small open economy

Recent diffusion models cannot explain why the success of technology diffusion depends so critically on developing countries’ human capital levels. This paper examines three main issues. First, we endogenize both appropriate technologies and human capital formation. Second, we refine the human capital accumulation process by introducing uncertainty about worker quality and training efficiency. Finally, we allow for international diffusion of technology as a function of the host country’s endogenous ability to absorb technological spillovers. The resulting model is one of uneven growth where trade amplifies worker quality problems in laggard countries. In contrast, technology spillovers are shown to generate additional incentives to accumulate human capital in the laggard country, since this allows for faster adoption and diffusion of foreign technology in the future.     

FDI技术溢出效应的门限特征研究——来自中国省际面板数据的证据

已有的关于FDI(对外直接投资)技术溢出效应研究文献中,大多数学者认为FDI技术溢出会显著地促进东道主国家的经济增长,然而,利用中国1997年-2009年的省际面板数据,对FDI技术溢出效应进行研究却发现,FDI技术溢出效应在中国不同的地区存在显著差异;运用门限回归模型,从地区经济发展水平、地区开放程度、地区人力资本存量、地区金融发展程度等四个方面检验了FDI技术溢出效应的门限特征,并测算出了引发积极FDI技术外溢效应的门限水平。     

How do interregional spillovers influence the distribution of technology? The case of Chinese manufacturing

The Chinese economy displays considerable inequality across regions. In this paper, we analyzed the distribution of intermediate input shares in China. We use regional input–output tables from 2007 and find that regions with higher GDP per capita generally had higher input shares, regardless of sector. Then, using intermediate input shares as a proxy of technology, we analyzed the pattern of regional technology distributions across manufacturing sectors as well as the extent of interregional technology spillovers. Our results indicate that interregional backward spillovers have significantly positive impacts on the shape of the technology distributions in eastern (coastal) regions. By contrast, the vertical spillovers of the central and western regions are largely dominated by intra-regional forward effects. Our results suggest that the shift of Chinese manufacturing from coastal to inland regions with lower production costs cannot reduce the imbalance among regions unless the technology gap is narrowed.     

进口贸易、吸收能力与国际研发技术溢出的实证分析

本文研究了以进口贸易为传导机制的国际技术溢出对我国全要素生产率的影响.结果表明,贸易伙伴国溢出的研发与我国全要素生产率之间存在着稳定的长期均衡关系,但是具体促进程度受到中国人力资本和贸易开放程度等吸收能力因素的制约.在此实证研究的基础上,本文提出了相应的政策建议.     

R&D,Interindustry and International Technology Spillovers and the Total Factor Productivity Growth of Manufacturing Industries in Canada, 1974-1989

The paper presents new econometric evidence on the relationship between total factor productivity growth and the R&D expenditures of Canadian manufacturing industries in the presence of interindustry and international spillovers of technology. In contrast to studies that presume that international spillovers are incorporated in imports of intermediate and/or capital equipment goods, the present paper assumes that the principal channel of transmission of new technology is foreign direct investment. Three original proxies for international spillovers use information on patenting, the size and the origin of foreign ownership in the host country and the R&D expenditures in the country of origin. The results suggest that the nexus between industry's own R&D expenditures and the TFP growth is significant and positive, especially for the process-related R&D. Domestic interindustry spillovers of new technology have a larger effect on TFP than industry's own R&D expenditures. All three proxies for international technology spillovers are associated positively and significantly with TFP growth. However, international spillovers contribute to TFP growth less than domestic interindustry spillovers and less than own process-related R&D.     

Strategic location choice under dynamic oligopolistic competition and spillovers

This paper investigates firms׳ optimal location choices explicitly accounting for the role of inwards and outwards knowledge spillovers in a dynamic Cournot oligopoly with firms that are heterogeneous in their ability to carry out cost-reducing R&D. Firms can either locate in an industrial cluster or in isolation. Technological spillovers are exchanged between the firms located in the cluster. It is shown that a technological leader has an incentive to locate in isolation only if her advantage exceeds a certain threshold, which is increasing in firms׳ discount rate, in industry dispersion, and in the intensity of knowledge spillovers. Scenarios are identified where although it is optimal for the technological leader to locate in isolation, from a welfare perspective it would be desirable that she locates in the cluster.     

Endogenous International Technology Spillovers and Biased Technical Change in Agriculture

This paper analyzes trade-related knowledge flows from an innovating country to other countries. It is assumed that knowledge is embodied in commodities traded between countries and that the potential productivity of this knowledge is determined by the local usability of foreign technologies. The usability of foreign knowledge is dependent on the local absorption capacity (such as knowledge infrastructure and human capital) and on structural differences (factor endowments or climate) between countries. In agriculture, a large portion of the knowledge is embodied in inputs which cause factor-biased technical change in the receiving sectors. Trade-related knowledge transmission is introduced in an applied multi-region general equilibrium model (GTAP) to study the macro-economic and sectoral impacts of knowledge spillovers and of trade policies. Endogenous embodied technology spillovers bear some important implications for trade policy, because protective measures preclude countries not only from cheaper imports but also from foreign technologies.     

FDI技术溢出机理及影响因素探析

文章探讨了FDI技术溢出机理,分别就水平溢出效应和垂直溢出效应的传导机制进行了分析,并指出了影响FDI技术溢出效应的因素,包括东道国吸收能力与技术差距、市场竞争与跨国公司投资动机。还从产业引进与培育、制度建设及人才战略等方面提出了建议,以更好发挥FDI技术溢出效应,促进我国技术进步。     

服务外包企业技术吸收能力的影响因素分析:以镇江市为例

服务外包企业的技术吸收能力决定了发包方技术外溢效应,对企业创新与区域经济的发展有着至关重要的作用。基于已有研究成果并结合服务外包的特点,从人力资本、市场环境、产业集聚程度和政府支持力度四个方面构建了评价服务外包企业技术吸收能力的指标体系。通过问卷调查并运用因子分析发现:制约镇江市服务外包企业技术吸收能力提升的最关键因子是人力资本。最后针对镇江服务外包企业技术吸收能力的制约因素,提出相应的对策与建议。     

Interindustry Technology Flows and Productivity in Finnish Manufacturing

The paper examines the importance of interindustry technology flows in finnish manufacturing in the 1980s and early 1990s. An attempt is made to distinguish between embodied technology flows and spillovers, so clarifying the spillover concept.Embodied technology covers intermediate goods and capital equipment. The embodied technology data that have been used are partly based on input—output analysis, while the spillover estimates presented are based on measures of technological distance based on the industry-specific distributions of R&D expenditures. Econometric analysis of the effects of the various technology inputs on total factor productivity implies that technology embodied in foreign machinery, domestic spillovers and, to some extent, the firms' own R&D have been the most important technology sources on average.     

Fiscal centralization versus decentralization: Growth and welfare effects of spillovers, Leviathan taxation, and capital mobility

This paper develops an endogenous growth model with spillovers of public goods, Leviathan taxation, and mobile capital to examine the relative merits of centralized and decentralized fiscal systems for economic growth and social welfare. We show that a decentralized system dominates a centralized system in terms of economic growth; however, the difference in social welfare between a decentralized and a centralized system is non-monotonic and displays a hump-shaped relationship with respect to capital mobility. Since higher capital mobility induces stronger tax competition, this finding implies that there is an optimal degree of tax competition; some tax competition is desirable, but fierce tax competition may be harmful. We also show that there is a critical level of spillovers of public goods above which centralization dominates decentralization in terms of social welfare, as in previous studies; however, if spillovers are below this critical level, capital mobility also matters in the welfare comparison between centralized and decentralized systems.     

技术差距的门槛与FDI技术溢出的非线性——理论模型及中国企业的实证研究

本文通过引入内外资技术差距的"双刃性"改进质量阶梯型内生增长模型,从理论上证明了存在内外资技术差距的门槛值,使得外商直接投资技术溢出受技术差距的影响而呈现非线性动态演进规律;进一步结合我国14474家微观企业面板数据,证明了存在两个技术差距的门槛值,使得外商直接投资企业对于落在不同技术差距范围内的内资企业具有不同的技术溢出效应。     

The precious bane

Are natural resources harmful to growth? We address this question using a two-sector, endogenous growth model in which human capital is the engine of growth. By increasing the rewards to unskilled labor, natural resources make schooling more expensive. As long as the intertemporal elasticity of consumption substitution is not too high, this slows down human capital accumulation and growth. The presence of production spillovers from human capital, however, implies that a planner could react to a resource boom by increasing human capital accumulation even though the decentralized solution yields the exact opposite. The paper also shows that as the production complementarity between natural resources and unskilled labor declines, the growth effects of natural resources become increasingly sensitive to whether or not there is free trade in goods. The empirical evidence lends support to the main channel – natural resources to human capital to growth – that is suggested in the paper.     

A micro-econometric analysis of the role of R&D spillovers using a nonlinear translog specification

This paper assesses the impact of Research and Development (R&D) spillovers on production for a panel of 1,203 Italian manufacturing firms over the period 1998–2003.The estimations are based on a nonlinear translog production function augmented by a measure of R&D spillovers which combines the geographical distance between firms, the technological similarity within each pair of firms and the technical efficiency of each firm. The estimation method takes into account the endogeneity of regressors and the potential sample selection issue regarding the decision by firms to invest in R&D. Results show that the translog production function is more suitable than the Cobb-Douglas for modelling firm behaviour and that returns to scale are increasing. Moreover, the internal and external stocks of technology exert a significant impact on firms’ production. Finally, it emerges that, for Italian manufacturing firms, R&D capital and R&D spillovers are highly substitutes.     

中国经济发展省际差距成因的双层挖掘分析

循着要素规模、质量和效率三位一体的逻辑,从两个层次挖掘区域之间经济差距形成及其变迁的驱动因素,引入可导性对数方差分解法的基本原理,构造了区域间经济差距形成及其变迁的驱动因素贡献的双层分解模型,并利用中国31个省份2005-2012年数据进行实证分析。结果表明,省际经济差距形成和绝对差距扩大的首要推动力是全要素生产率差距,人均资本差距也起到了较大的贡献作用;在全要素生产率差距贡献中,综合效率差距提供了主导性的正向支持,高级人力资本占比差距也具有较大的推动作用,而设备性资本占比差距起到显著的抑制作用。     

Team leader experience in improvement teams: A social networks perspective

In this research, we disentangle the relationship between several key aspects of a team leader's experience and the likelihood of improvement project success. Using the lens of socio-technical systems, we argue that the effect of team leader experience derives from the social system as well as the technical system. The aspects of team leader experience we examine include team leader social capital (a part of the social system) and team leader experience leading projects of the same type (a part of the technical system).We examine four different, yet related, dimensions of a team leader's social capital, which we motivate based on the social networks literature. One dimension, team leader familiarity, suggests that social capital is created when team leaders have experience working with current team members on prior improvement projects, and that such social capital increases the likelihood of improvement project success. We develop three additional dimensions, using social network analysis (SNA), to capture the idea that the improvement team leader's social capital extends beyond the current team to include everyone the leader has previously worked with on improvement projects. Contrasting our SNA-based dimensions with team leader familiarity enables us to better understand the impact of a team leader's social capital both inside and beyond the team. We also examine the effect of a team leader's experience leading prior projects of the same type, and consider the extent to which organizational experience may moderate the impact of both team leader social capital and same-type project experience.Based on analysis of archival data of six sigma projects spanning six years from a Fortune 500 consumer products manufacturer, we find that two of our SNA-based dimensions of team leader social capital, as well as experience leading projects of the same type, increase the likelihood of project success. In addition, we show that organizational experience moderates the relationship between team leader same-type project experience and project success. However, this is not the case for the relationship between the dimensions of team leader social capital and project success. These results provide insights regarding how dimensions of team leader experience and organizational experience collectively impact the operational performance of improvement teams.     

Asymmetric risk spillovers between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets under China’s capital account liberalization

In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric risk spillovers between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock markets under the backdrop of China’s capital account liberalization by measuring the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) based on adjusted realized volatilities and variational mode decomposition based copula model. The empirical results show that, the asymmetric features of risk spillovers between the two markets are significant and manifest different states before and after the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect schemes. More specifically, first, the downside risk spillovers from Hong Kong to Shanghai are significantly larger than its upside risk spillovers, while the risk spillovers from Shanghai to Hong Kong is on the contrary. Second, the short-run risk spillovers are more drastic than the long-run risk spillovers, except the risk spillovers from Shanghai to Hong Kong after the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme. Finally, by comparing the risk spillovers from two directions, the importance of Shanghai stock market gradually rises up with the implementations of Stock Connect schemes.     

How work-related capabilities influence job performance: a relational perspective

Employee relationships with supervisors can be based upon both work-focused activities and outcomes, as exemplified by leader–member exchange (LMX), and personal, non-work activities, as exemplified by Chinese guanxi. The purpose of this study is to examine the mediating role of supervisor–subordinate guanxi (SSG) and LMX in the relationship between the work-related human and social capital of employees and supervisors’ ratings of their job performance. Data were collected from 372 employees and 127 supervisors in a range of companies in China. The study demonstrates how human and social capital might play differing roles in influencing SSG and LMX. In particular, LMX partially mediated the relationship between human capital and job performance, and the relationship between social capital and job performance was fully mediated by SSG and LMX. The findings enrich understanding of how personal capabilities influence work and non-work relationships and assessments of job performance. The unique content of the Chinese construct of guanxi has implications for research and practice in modern organizations where the barriers between work and non-work are permeable and relationships include affective attachment as well as instrumental considerations.