A YIELD-FACTOR MODEL OF INTEREST RATES

This paper presents a consistent and arbitrage-free multifactor model of the term structure of interest rates in which yields at selected fixed maturities follow a parametric muitivariate Markov diffusion process with "stochastic volatility." the yield of any zero-coupon bond is taken to be a maturity-dependent affine combination of the selected "basis" set of yields. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions on the stochastic model for this affine representation. We include numerical techniques for solving the model, as well as numerical techniques for calculating the prices of term-structure derivative prices. the case of jump diffusions is also considered.     

COMPARATIVE DYNAMICS AND OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICY IN A SIMPLE MODEL OF ENDOGENOUS GROWTH

I analyze optimal fiscal policy choices in a continuous time endogenous growth model similar to Barro’s. The government uses income taxes from representative ‘rich’ and ‘poor’ households to finance purchases of productive goods and to make transfer payments to poor households. Increases in government purchases can increase the growth rate, while increases in transfers reduce growth. I examine the socially optimal allocation of government resources to purchases and transfer payments and describe conditions under which both the rich and poor would benefit from cuts in entitlements if the savings are used to finance increased government purchases of productive goods.     

INTEREST RATES IN POST-KEYNESIAN MODELS OF GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION

The goal of this article is to make a heuristic and comparative presentation of how the major post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution integrate money, more specifically interest rates, into their framework. Five variants will be considered, all constructed on the basis of the newer Kaleckian model. It will be shown that increases in real interest rates may have surprising effects on effective demand. It will also be shown that accumulation rates and leverage ratios need not move together. The latter finding reinforces a major hypothesis of the analysis, that is, real interest rates are an exogenous distributive variable.     

RE‐EXAMINING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEW CONSENSUS: ENDOGENOUS MONEY AND TAYLOR RULES IN A SIMPLE NEOCLASSICAL MACRO MODEL

This paper re‐examines the impact of endogenous money in a neoclassical model with interest‐sensitive expenditures. It first outlines a benchmark model with exogenous money and the usual full employment and money growth‐determined inflation results. It then replaces exogenous money with endogenous money, which is shown to generate model indeterminacy. Two methods of resolving this indeterminacy are then explored: money illusion and a Taylor rule for monetary policy, a key feature of new consensus models. The paper concludes that endogenous money has negative implications for the behaviour and interpretation of neoclassical and new consensus models.     

INTEREST RATE,DEBT, DISTRIBUTION AND CAPITAL ACCUMULATION IN A POST‐KALECKIAN MODEL

In the present paper we extend Lavoie's (Metroeconomica, 1995, vol. 46, pp. 146–177) ‘Minsky–Steindl’ model, building our analysis on a Kaleckian distribution and growth model which has already taken into account distribution effects of interest rate variations on the short‐run equilibrium. Into this model the effects of debt and debt services are explicitly introduced and the effects of interest rate variations on the short‐ and the long‐run equilibrium are derived. It is shown that the effects of interest rate variations on the endogenously determined equilibrium values of the model not only depend on the parameter values in the saving and investment functions but also on the interest elasticity of distribution and on initial conditions with respect to the interest rate and the debt–capital ratio.     

论国际金融市场上利率传导的机理及表现

当国际金融市场的利率与一国利率存在差距时 ,国际资本便会流入或流出 ,随之又会影响其他国家的资本供给和利率。由于利差的经常存在 ,国际游资数额巨大 ,利率差的传导渠道不容低估。本文从利率的流动性效应着手 ,运用开放经济条件下利率传导的基本原理及利率、汇率和通胀率之间的关联性 ,分析国际金融市场利率传导机制的表现 ,得出来自利率、汇率平价机制的市场性传导在金融全球化过程中有力地影响着各国的利率水平 ,并且通过实际利率的变化影响经济运行步伐。     

中国与新加坡汇率制度比较分析

从2005年7月21日开始,我国实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。人民币不再单一钉住美元,也不是严格钉住一篮子货币,可简单称之为“软钉住篮子货币”。一些机构和市场人士认为, 中国最终将实行新加坡式的BBC (Basket,Band and Crawling)制度,     

SOCIAL DISCOUNTING AND THE LONG RATE OF INTEREST

The well‐known theorem of Dybvig, Ingersoll, and Ross shows that the long zero‐coupon rate can never fall. This result, which, although undoubtedly correct, has been regarded by many as surprising, stems from the implicit assumption that the long‐term discount function has an exponential tail. We revisit the problem in the setting of modern interest rate theory, and show that if the long “simple” interest rate (or Libor rate) is finite, then this rate (unlike the zero‐coupon rate) acts viably as a state variable, the value of which can fluctuate randomly in line with other economic indicators. New interest rate models are constructed, under this hypothesis and certain generalizations thereof, that illustrate explicitly the good asymptotic behavior of the resulting discount bond systems. The conditions necessary for the existence of such “hyperbolic” and “generalized hyperbolic” long rates are those of so‐called social discounting, which allow for long‐term cash flows to be treated as broadly “just as important” as those of the short or medium term. As a consequence, we are able to provide a consistent arbitrage‐free valuation framework for the cost‐benefit analysis and risk management of long‐term social projects, such as those associated with sustainable energy, resource conservation, and climate change.     

FOREIGN TRADE AND THE EXCHANGE RATE IN BOTSWANA

Botswana is a success story of exceptional economic performance, sound development management, and good governance. A great deal of that success can be attributed to the country's export performance and the avoidance of the 'Dutch Disease' syndrome that has plagued other natural resource based African countries. This article documents and analyzes Botswana's trade and exchange rate relationship, during the past two decades, in the context of the country's economic performance, and examines the related issue of the value of the country's currency to determine whether it is overvalued or undervalued.     

RETHINKING ENDOGENOUS MONEY: A CONSTRUCTIVE INTERPRETATION OF THE DEBATE BETWEEN HORIZONTALISTS AND STRUCTURALISTS

Beyond a widespread agreement on the idea that ‘loans create deposits’ and ‘deposits make reserves’, there is much controversy in the endogenous money literature over the workings of the reserve market, the credit market and the financial markets. In this paper a constructive interpretation of the debate between horizontalists and structuralists is suggested and their arguments are taken forward by showing that these controversial issues can be explained rigorously once a single‐period–continuation framework is adopted.     

PRICE DETERMINATION IN POLYPOLISTIC MARKETS AND EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES

A number of extensions of monopolistic competition to international trade have proved able to account for observed deviations from models of perfect competition. New fundamental research has questioned the concept of perfect competition by investigating firms’ decisions directly, with results quite similar in spirit to Kahn's idea of a “polypolistic market”. This paper follows this latter route; it presents a model of a firm's price and output decisions under uncertainty which produces the typical behavior of monopolistic competition even in a homogeneous industry. The model yields insights into the issue of the price and quantity effects of nominal changes in exchange rates.     

COMPETING VIEWS OF THE MONEY SUPPLY PROCESS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE

This paper examines three competing approaches to the determination of the money supply. The first approach is labelled the pure portfolio approach, and corresponds to the orthodox approach to the money supply. The second approach is labelled the pure loan demand approach, and corresponds to the Post Keynesian accommodationist view of endogenous money. The third approach is labelled the mixed portfolio-loan demand approach, and corresponds to the Post Keynesian structuralist view of endogenous money. The critical theoretical difference between the latter two models is identified in terms of the importance of the private initiatives of banks in accommodating expansions of loan demand. The paper then provides Granger-causality evidence on the three approaches, and concludes in favor of the mixed portfolio-loan demand approach.     

DIFFUSION MODELS FOR EXCHANGE RATES IN A TARGET ZONE

We present two analytically tractable diffusion models for an exchange rate in a target zone. One model generalizes a model proposed by De Jong, Drost, and Werker (2001) to allow asymmetry between the currencies which is often an important feature of data. Estimation of the model parameters by the method of Kessler and Sørensen (1999) using eigenfunctions of the generator is investigated and shown to give well-behaved estimators that are easy to calculate. The method is well suited to the models because the eigenfunctions are known so that explicit estimating functions are obtained, and because the state space is a finite interval, for which it is known that the method can be made arbitrarily efficient by including sufficiently many eigenfunctions. The model fits data on exchange rates in the European Monetary System well. In particular, the asymmetry parameter is significantly different from zero for three out of four currencies. An alternative diffusion model is presented with similarly nice properties, but with different dynamics that allow constant volatility near the boundaries of the target zone. No-arbitrage pricing of derivative assets is considered, and the effect of realignments is briefly discussed.