ARE LONG‐RUN PRICE STABILITY AND SHORT‐RUN OUTPUT STABILIZATION ALL THAT MONETARY POLICY CAN AIM FOR?

A central tenet of the so‐called new consensus view in macroeconomics is that there is no long‐run trade‐off between inflation and unemployment. The main policy implication of this principle is that all monetary policy can aim for is (modest) short‐run output stabilization and long‐run price stability, i.e. monetary policy is neutral with respect to output and employment in the long run. However, research on the different sources of path dependency in the economy suggests that persistent but nevertheless transitory changes in aggregate demand may have a permanent effect on output and employment. If this is the case, then, the way monetary policy is run does have long‐run effects on real variables. This paper provides an overview of this research and explores conceptually how monetary policy should be implemented once these long‐run effects are acknowledged.     

The NAIRU,Aggregate Demand and Investment

The nature of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is analysed. The focus of our analysis is the role of aggregate demand and capacity in the context of the NAIRU. Two aspects of the relationship between the level of aggregate demand and the NAIRU are of particular significance. First, it is argued that the real wage–employment relationship based on enterprise decisions cannot be fully articulated without reference to the level of aggregate demand. Second, a model which allows for variable returns to labour and the notion of full capacity is used to explore the effects of shifts in the capital stock on the real wage–employment relationship. The model is specifically used to explore whether a sufficiently expansionary environment can generate sufficient investment to shift that relationship until the NAIRU is compatible with full employment. A number of limitations on the conclusions reached are considered, and the policy implications are briefly considered.     

Is the unemployment–inflation trade-off still alive in the Euro Area and its member countries? It seems so

The unemployment–inflation trade-off can be interpreted as a proposition concerning the response of these two variables to aggregate demand shocks. In this paper, we study the possible presence of the trade-off in the Euro Area and in a wide group of Euro-area countries in the last 20 years, that is, since the start of EMU. We use the structural VAR methodology that allows the separation between supply and demand shocks. Our main finding is that the existence of a trade-off is largely confirmed both at the Euro Area and at the national level. Nevertheless, the size of the trade-off, measured at different horizons, shows some heterogeneity among countries. No less important, when we augment the VAR model by introducing monetary policy in the context of an open economy, we find that monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the currency area. Another interesting result concerns the evidence of a relatively flat relation between unemployment and inflation, conditionally to monetary policy shocks. The bulk of these conclusions seem to be confirmed by a number of robustness checks.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL INTERACTIONS: SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN IMPLICATIONS

We model policy interactions in a growing economy. Unemployment can persist and matters for the real wage; conflicting claims underpin inflation outcomes; and aggregate demand determines capacity utilization and unemployment. Monetary policy is characterized by a Taylor rule. Fiscal policy is characterized by a marginal tendency to run deficits or surpluses. We address three questions: can monetary policy ensure macroeconomic stability in the absence of coordinated fiscal policy, can fiscal policy ensure macroeconomic stability when the monetary authority pegs the interest rate, and can policy authorities trade‐off some sustained inflation for a long‐run improvement in unemployment rates?     

THE PROFIT–INVESTMENT–UNEMPLOYMENT NEXUS AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN A STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT MODEL

This paper studies under which conditions the share of profit in value‐added, financial constraints on investment and capital shortage may foster unemployment and may limit the growth of capital and/or the growth of aggregate demand, in a stock‐flow consistent model. The efficiency of demand‐side versus supply‐side economic policies (decrease of the real interest rate and/or of the real wage, increase of the leverage ceiling constraint) depends on capital shortage and credit rationing, which are not necessarily simultaneous due to the effects of investment on aggregate demand and supply.     

Rising Income Inequality: Do Not Draw the Obvious Conclusions

Inequality is dominating the political debate in various countries still characterised by sluggish economic recovery and high unemployment. The drivers of higher income inequality since 1995 have been globalisation, technological change and migration. At the same time, these factors have had an undeniably positive impact on aggregate income. While populist parties advocate more nationalistic-oriented approaches, we argue that the appropriate policy response to this dilemma is to alleviate the social costs of globalisation rather than rejecting the aggregate economic benefit.     

MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION AND SEARCH UNEMPLOYMENT

In this paper the monopolistic competition model of Dixit and Stiglitz for the goods market and the search unemployment model of Pissarides are combined. The Pissarides part loses its Walrasian goods market and the Dixit–Stiglitz part loses its Walrasian labour market. Pissarides’ results now depend on the degree of competition. In the Dixit–Stiglitz part the size and number of firms as well as aggregate output now depend on aggregate hiring costs, tightness and unemployment, while real wages are not fixed. Some partial results of comparative static properties of the original models survive. New results concerning the effects of changes in labour (goods) market parameters on goods markets (the labour market) variables are obtained and related to the literature on macroeconomic theory with endogenous unemployment and imperfect competition, empirical results and policy issues.     

Voting for pollution policy: the importance of income inequality and openness to trade

This paper analyzes how openness and the distribution of factor ownership interact to determine individual and aggregate demand for pollution policy. Analysis of voter preferences in autarky shows that an increased stake in either the dirty or the clean industry can induce an individual voter to prefer stricter environmental policy. Similarly, the paper shows that poorer voters may be the greener voters within an electorate. The model also reveals that the incidence of pollution policy depends upon a country’s trade regime, with consequences for the direction in which income inequality influences aggregate demand for pollution policy.     

A reconciliation of the unemployment — New firm startup paradox

The purpose of this paper is to reconcile the seeming paradox emerging in the literature relating unemployment to new-firm startup activity and the decision to enter into self-employment. On the one hand time series studies have generally found that entrepreneurship is promoted by high levels of unemployment. On the other hand, cross-sectional studies have generally found that startup activity tends to be depressed where unemployment is high. We present a model derived from Knight's theory of individual choice in order to reconcile this apparent paradox. Assuming presence of an economy-wide demand shock and industry-specific shocks, the model indeed predicts the relations between new firm startup and unemployment which are found in empirical analysis. Hence, instead of blaming specification errors or unobserved policy changes, the seeming paradox can be reconciled by solid economic theory.     

Catching a wave: the formation of co-operatives in Finnish regions

This paper compares the formation rates of co-operatives and conventional firms in Finland using regional data. The Finnish co-operative “wave” that began in the mid-1990s provides a useful setting for testing the hypothesis that co-operative formation rates are higher in depressed economic conditions. The empirical results support this hypothesis. Co-operatives are formed more often in regions with high unemployment; in contrast, conventional firms are formed more often when unemployment is low and demand growth is high. Furthermore, the existence of dedicated advisory services boosts the formation of co-operatives. These results indicate that co-operatives may play a useful role in reducing unemployment and that the formation of co-operatives may be influenced by policy measures.     

Customer Markets,Inflation and Unemployment in a Dynamic Model with a Range of Equilibria

The paper presents a dynamic model incorporating a range of non‐accelerating‐inflation rates of unemployment (NAIRU) obtained according to the theoretical framework proposed by the customer markets literature. The analysis of the dynamic adjustments of unemployment and inflation emphasizes the real effects of demand shocks. Changes in the fiscal and monetary policy can exert permanent effects on output and unemployment, both determining persistence in the unemployment rate and selecting the actual steady‐state equilibrium within the NAIRU range.     

Industrial Policy, FDI and Employment: Still ‘Missing a Strategy’

This paper contrasts the effects of trade, inward FDI and technological development upon the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the UK. By focussing on industry level data panel data on smaller firms, the paper also contrasts these effects with those generated by large scale domestic investment. The analysis is placed within the broader context of shifts in British industrial policy, which has seen significant shifts from sectoral to horizontal measures and towards stressing the importance of SMEs, clusters and new technology, all delivered at the regional scale. This, however, is contrasted with continued elements of British and EU regional policy which have emphasised the attraction of inward investment in order to alleviate regional unemployment. The results suggest that such policies are not naturally compatible; that while both trade and FDI benefit skilled workers, they have adverse effects on the demand for unskilled labour in the UK. At the very least this suggests the need for a range of policies to tackle various targets (including in this case unemployment and social inclusion) and the need to integrate these into a coherent industrial strategy at various levels of governance, whether regional and/or national. This has important implications for the form of any ‘new’ industrial policy.     

THE DIAMOND OF MACROECONOMIC EQUILIBRIA AND NON‐INFLATIONARY EXPANSION

This paper combines the microeconomic foundations of earlier models of a range of equilibrium rates of employment to generate a model with a diamond of equilibria. Analysis of the diamond model shows that for a depressed economy an expansionary aggregate demand policy can, without violating rational expectations of inflation, generate a central proposition of Keynesian economics—a non‐inflationary expansion (NIE), that is a permanent increase in employment without increasing inflation. The microeconomic foundations of the model draw on ideas of customer markets, reference dependence and loss aversion. It is also shown that the possibility of achieving an NIE is enhanced if a macro price policy, such as incomes policy or inflation targeting, accompanies the expansion in aggregate demand.     

不完全汇率传递下的货币政策工具规则分析

本文尝试构建一个开放条件下的总供给-总需求模型,通过名义进口价格刚性在模型中引入汇率传递因素。模型对各种货币政策工具规则下社会福利损失函数进行比较,考察在不同的汇率传递程度下的各种货币政策工具规则。研究结果显示,社会福利水平随着汇率传递程度下降而提高;货币政策工具规则对消费者物价指数(CPI)上涨作出反应一定程度上优于对国内制造商品价格上涨作出反应,制定的货币政策工具规则应该以CPI为目标,以使社会福利损失最小。     

The optimal policy rule under rational expectations and multiplier uncertainty

This paper shows the role of macro policy under multiplier uncertainty when expectations are rational and the supply structure is affected by price level variance. Policy less is a function of price level variance and possibly of the expected price level. If the letter argument is omitted from the less function, optimal policy simply minimizes the horizontal variance of the aggregate demand curve. If it is not omitted, the level of policy depends on the responsiveness of the supply structure to price level variance, and there may be multiple local policy optima.     

Flexible exchange rates,unemployment and stabilization policy effectiveness

The paper presents a general equilibrium model of a small flexible exchange rate economy comprising asset, goods, and labor markets. Viewing the exchange rate as determined proximately in asset markets, the study examines its influence on the excess demand for labor and for output and, correspondingly, its impact on the level of unemployment and external imbalance. The role of exchange rate expectations is central to the present analysis, which reconsiders, in that light, the conventional conclusions about monetary and fiscal policy effectiveness under flexible exchange rates.     

宏观经济政策反思及其转型的框架设计

前几年实行的财政政策中,企业税费负担增长过快抑制投资需求与增发国债扩大投资需求相互抵消;发行国债的增速在下降,还本付息比例在上升,国债发行扩大投资的边际效用在递减;国债主要投资于短期增加就业和拉动增长的基础项目上,其增长和就业连续性较弱.而货币政策方面,降低利率和存款准备金率以及公开市场业务操作等总量性的政策,对扩大贷款,特别是对推动增长和增加就业最有用的中小企业的放款,几乎没有作用.贷存比和对中小企业的贷款持续下降和相对减少.因此,需要从行政取向国债为主的财政政策和总量性的货币政策,转向市场取向刺激社会投资的财政政策和体制及结构性的货币政策.减少税费负担,实行投资税收抵扣制,对积极为中小企业贷款的银行给予税收优惠;大力发展社会资本的中小银行,同时鼓励民间中小企业信贷担保公司的发展,放宽资产抵押、担保和信用贷款的一些政策,调整银行呆坏账准备金的使用结构,为中小企业贷款服务.如果财政政策和货币政策转型,则在未来的三四年中,失业率可以从目前的年10%-11%下降到5%-6%,国内消费增长率从目前的8.5%左右提高到年12%-13%,消费物价走出持续低迷,并且GDP每年以8%的速度再增长三到四年.     

Growth,income distribution and unemployment in a two-sector economy

We build a two-sector general equilibrium growth model with capital-intensive consumption goods and a labour-intensive investment goods sector to investigate the coexistence of growth and unemployment. The model uses heterogeneity in saving behaviour, introduces an effective demand problem, has full employment of capital with input non-substitutability and shows that the aggregate labour employment is determined by available capital along with commodity market equilibrium. The long-run growth may not be balanced, and under biased growth, the level of unemployment may monotonically increase or decrease over time, or may first increase (decrease) and then decrease (increase). Such possible unemployment paths help us tightly define “jobless growth”.     

总供给冲击、总需求冲击与我国经济波动关系的实证研究

本文利用1994年1季度至2012年2季度产出和价格的季度数据,建立了基于长期约束的SVAR模型,用以分析总供给冲击和总需求冲击对我国经济波动的影响,考察经济增长和价格对总供给冲击和总需求冲击的动态响应。实证研究表明,总供给冲击和总需求冲击标准差均较大,而且总需求冲击波动性要大于总供给冲击的波动性,说明我国经济在样本数据期内存在波动性。脉冲响应分析发现,总供给冲击对于产出具有正向长期趋势,而总需求冲击对于产出具有正向短期影响;对于价格而言,总供给冲击对价格产生负向长期影响,而总需求冲击对价格产生正向长期影响。2011年以来我国经济增速持续放缓,主要在于供求冲击为负,供给负冲击更为显著。     

Trade patterns,unemployment and growth

This paper analyses the implications of a minimum wage in an open economy two-sector model where the effect of growth on trade and unemployment is explicitly determined. The first-best policy is a wage subsidy to all employment while the second-best policy is a production tax cum subsidy. In the absence of policy intervention it is shown that growth in the short run results in decreasing unemployment for the home country if it is specialized in consumption goods or incompletely specialized provided that the minimum wage is binding. If the economy is specialized in investment goods, then unemployment may increase initially but as growth continues the minimum wage no longer remains binding and full employment is restored. In the long run by examining the dynamic interaction between trade and growth it is possible for the economy to be incompletely specialized with unemployment. If the economy specializes in consumption goods, it is possible for the economy to attain full employment.