SPECIFICATION OF COMMODITY SUBSETS FOR SEPARABLE UTILITY FUNCTIONS

The present paper differs from previous works since it is concerned with the conditions under which commodities are grouped in separable utility functions. The conditions are derived theoretically and then tested empirically. This provides a solid basis under which commodities can he properly grouped without employing an a priori reasoning process that could result in misspecification of the utility function. The conditions are derived and tested for three principal types of separable utility functions: utility tree, block additivity, and additivity. In the case of directly additive utility functions, the goods are treated as Hicksian composite commodities rather than specific goods. The general conditions for grouping apply to directly additive functions so that each composite commodity is treated as belonging to a separate subset. The data for commodity expenditure in constant dollars and prices of commodities are taken from The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929–1965, Statistical Tables, Table 2.6 and Table 8.6 respectively. The conditions necessary for specification of the commodity subsets are derived from the properties of each Separability situation and are empirically tested in an iterative fashion similar to the cochranc-orcutt autoregressive technique.     

OVERLAPPING SETS OF PRIORS AND THE EXISTENCE OF EFFICIENT ALLOCATIONS AND EQUILIBRIA FOR RISK MEASURES

The overlapping expectations and the collective absence of arbitrage conditions introduced in the economic literature to insure existence of Pareto optima and equilibria with short‐selling when investors have a single belief about future returns, is reconsidered. Investors use measures of risk. The overlapping sets of priors and the Pareto equilibrium conditions introduced by Heath and Ku for coherent risk measures are respectively reinterpreted as a weak no‐arbitrage and a weak collective absence of arbitrage conditions and shown to imply existence of Pareto optima and Arrow–Debreu equilibria.     

网络环境下的支付行为变化风险及其防范

网络支付作为新兴的支付方式,丰富、发展、改变了人们的支付行为。本文从支付行为要素的角度出发,分析、比较网络环境下构成支付行为的基本要素所面,陆的主要风险,包括安全与效率两个方面损失的可能性。本文围绕网络支付带来的货币资金形态、网络支付指令形态及网络支付指令传输渠道等三方面的发展变化,对网络环境下支付行为发展变化带来的风险进行了综述并分别提出了相应的防范措施。     

VOLATILITY STRUCTURES OF FORWARD RATES AND THE DYNAMICS OF THE TERM STRUCTURE1

For general volatility structures for forward rates, the evolution of interest rates may not be Markovian and the entire path may be necessary to capture the dynamics of the term structure. This article identifies conditions on the volatility structure of forward rates that permit the dynamics of the term structure to be represented by a two-dimensional state variable Markov process. the permissible set of volatility structures that accomplishes this goal is shown to be quite large and includes many stochastic structures. In general, analytical characterization of the terminal distributions of the two state variables is unlikely, and numerical procedures are required to value claims. Efficient simulation algorithms using control variates are developed to price claims against the term structure.     

STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS AND THE PRICING OF VIX OPTIONS

In this paper, we examine and compare the performance of a variety of continuous‐time volatility models in their ability to capture the behavior of the VIX. The “3/2‐ model” with a diffusion structure which allows the volatility of volatility changes to be highly sensitive to the actual level of volatility is found to outperform all other popular models tested. Analytic solutions for option prices on the VIX under the 3/2‐model are developed and then used to calibrate at‐the‐money market option prices.     

THE CONSUMER AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES

Whether you are a business person, a tourist, or a consumer, you are affected by foreign exchange rates. Quite often a person feels that foreign exchange rates are too complex to understand. The following is a simplified explanation of foreign exchange rates, touching on factors, which influence the rates. A brief history, the spot and forward market, and monetary policy is also covered. It is hoped this approach will give a better understanding of a subject that is often presented in a very complex way.     

当前外商直接投资及其外汇管理政策选择

编者按:受全球金融危机的影响,2008年中国跨境资本双向流动出现了一些"生物钟"紊乱现象.在这种形势下,中国外商直接投资也呈现出诸如投资连创新高、开始升级换代、流入趋缓以及存在部分撤资等特点.所以,在全球金融危机下,还必须加强对外商直接投资的外汇管理力度.     

中国与新加坡汇率制度比较分析

从2005年7月21日开始,我国实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。人民币不再单一钉住美元,也不是严格钉住一篮子货币,可简单称之为“软钉住篮子货币”。一些机构和市场人士认为, 中国最终将实行新加坡式的BBC (Basket,Band and Crawling)制度,     

THE EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS OF FINANCIAL PRACTICES

This paper presents a model in which financial practices are chosen by decentralized units on the basis of expectations regarding financial market conditions, while the probability distribution governing market conditions itself depends on the choices made. If all agents are unboundedly rational, there is a unique equilibrium in which expectations are self-fulfilling. The assumption of universal unbounded rationality is relaxed by introducing an optimization cost, which leads to the possibility that optimizers may not have a sufficiently great evolutionary advantage to eliminate nonoptimizers entirely. In this case behavioral heterogeneity can persist even in the long run. For certain classes of probability distributions governing financial conditions, the evolutionary dynamics of population composition can help explain a number of stylized facts regarding the dynamics of financial practices which have hitherto been explained on the basis of learning dynamics or systematic cognitive biases.     

实现区域一体化与政府职能转变

实现区域一体化目标,首要任务就是缩小城乡之间的差别,实现城乡一体化战略,大力推进城镇化建设。政府要适应市场经济的要求,转变职能,以适应新形势下的城镇化与区域一体化的发展。     

ON THE HIERARCHY OF SOME QUALITATIVE STRUCTURES IN THE VON NEUMANN AND RELATED MODELS

In this paper we collect some old and new qualitative-structural properties on the input and output matrices involved in the classical von Neumann model, properties relevant, from the formal and/or economic point of view, in the study of the equilibria of the said model. It is established the hierarchy, i.e. the relations of inclusion, partial overlapping and disjunction, among these properties, which permits to amend some current slips in the analysis of the von Neumann model (one due to von Neumann himself). The results obtained can be fitted to other production and exchange multisectorial models.     

FOREIGN TRADE AND THE EXCHANGE RATE IN BOTSWANA

Botswana is a success story of exceptional economic performance, sound development management, and good governance. A great deal of that success can be attributed to the country's export performance and the avoidance of the 'Dutch Disease' syndrome that has plagued other natural resource based African countries. This article documents and analyzes Botswana's trade and exchange rate relationship, during the past two decades, in the context of the country's economic performance, and examines the related issue of the value of the country's currency to determine whether it is overvalued or undervalued.     

THEORY AND CALIBRATION OF SWAP MARKET MODELS

This paper introduces a general framework for market models, named Market Model Approach, through the concept of admissible sets of forward swap rates spanning a given tenor structure. We relate this concept to results in graph theory by showing that a set is admissible if and only if the associated graph is a tree. This connection enables us to enumerate all admissible models for a given tenor structure. Three main classes are identified within this framework and correspond to the co-terminal, co-initial, and co-sliding model. We prove that the LIBOR market model is the only admissible model of a co-sliding type. By focusing on the co-terminal model in a lognormal setting, we develop and compare several approximating analytical formulae for caplets, while swaptions can be priced by a simple Black-type formula. A novel calibration technique is introduced to allow simultaneous calibration to caplet and swaption prices. Empirical calibration of the co-terminal model is shown to be faster, more robust, and more efficient than the same procedure applied to the LIBOR market model. We then argue that the co-terminal approach is the simplest and most convenient market model for pricing and hedging a large variety of exotic interest-rate derivatives.     

人民币资本项目可兑换的现实条件

20世纪 90年代中后期以来 ,人民币资本项目可兑换问题成为了中国金融改革的一个焦点。那么 ,时至今日中国到底是否具有了实现人民币资本项目可兑换的条件呢 ?本文通过对宏观经济状况、金融条件、企业发展状况、外汇储备量、现行汇率制度、经济开放程度等六个方面对我国是否具备人民币资本项目可兑换的条件进行了探讨。