浅疑我国外贸依存度的高度

随着我国对外贸易的发展,我国的名义外贸依存度不断创出新高。本文通过对名义外贸依存度高度的置疑,认真考虑了GDP的结构差异、加工贸易的发展、汇率的变动和世界贸易发展等对我国外贸依存度影响的因素,对外贸依存度重新做出客观合理的判定,指出我国的实际外贸依存度并没有那么高。     

正确看待外贸依存度指标数值

我国的高外贸依存度指标数值引起社会各界的关注和争论。我们需要对指标的经济度量意义、世界背景下中国指标数值变化趋势、外贸依存度指标运用难题等方面做相对细致地考察,以纠正我国学术界关于外贸依存度指标的错误观念,并厘正外贸依存度指标运用的误区。     

我国外贸依存度的结构调整分析

一、我国外贸依存度的现状 外贸依存度是指一定时期内一个国家或地区对外贸易总额占该国国内生产总值的比重,它是衡量一国贸易开放程度的一个基本指标,也是反映一个国家经济与国际市场联系程度的标尺.如果分别用出口额或进口额在国内生产总值中占比重来计算,外贸依存度可分为出口依存度和进口依存度.外贸依存度的变动主要取决于三个因素:出口增长率、GDP增长率和汇率的变动.     

财政分权、经济增长与外贸依存度——基于1978～2007年改革开放30年数据的实证分析

本文以我国1978～2007年的数据,运用协整、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数研究了我国财政分权、经济增长对外贸依存度的动态影响。研究发现:长期内,财政分权会推进外贸依存度的提高,而短期内财政分权对外贸依存度的作用不显著;以人均GDP衡量的经济增长,在短期内可提高外贸依存度水平,而在长期中却会降低外贸依存度。分析表明,财政分权引致的地方政府为经济增长而产生的对FDI和出口的激励,以及贸易升级、产业结构调整、内需导向型经济增长模式,是财政分权、经济增长和外贸依存度之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。     

外贸依存度国际比较与中国外贸的结构型风险分析

2003年中国外贸依存度上升至60.8％。与其他国家相比,中国的外贸依存度有着自己的特征。由于我国外贸存在结构性的问题,中国既是一个贸易大国,又是一个贸易弱国。处于这种地位的中国,容易遇到一系列的风险。     

我国外贸依存度的结构调整分析

一、我国外贸依存度的现状 外贸依存度是指一定时期内一个国家或地区对外贸易总额占该国国内生产总值的比重，它是衡量一国贸易开放程度的一个基本指标，也是反映一个国家经济与国际市场联系程度的标尺。如果分别用出口额或进口额在国内生产总值中占比重来计算，外贸依存度可分为出口依存度和进口依存度。外贸依存度的变动主要取决于三个因素：出口增长率、GDP增长率和汇率的变动。     

建立中国、中国香港特区、日本、韩国三国四方自由贸易区设想

比历史上任何时期更为重要的发展经验是,当今无论哪个国家或地区要想持续增长都必须是一个开放经济,而贸易自由化是开放经济的基本条件.我们需要重新认识中国经济开放程度.从按汇率计算的外贸依存度看,中国经济开放程度很高,但是从按购买力平价(PPP)计算的外贸依存度看,中国经济开放程度很低(见图1).     

外贸依存度过高形势下扩大内需的必要性

我国外贸近些年来快速增长,已成为贸易大国,对外贸易的快速发展和外贸依存度的不断提高,充分表明我国融入经济全球化的程度日益加深,然而金融危机的爆发,使我国充分意识到对外依存度过高产生的问题.文章综合分析了我国在金融危机下的发展战略,说明了扩大内需的必要性.     

危机后的坚持——从上海贸易依存度出发看经济增长模式

长久以来，进出口在拉动我国经济增长上一直扮演着极其重要的角色，随之而来的是不断攀升的外贸依存度，而过高的贸易依存度则会使国家经济运行处于较高的风险之中。这引起了国内众多学者对过高外贸依存度负面影响的担忧，而本次的金融危机更是加深了这一担忧，于是调整我国经济增长结构成为当前的热点议题。本文以此为出发点，利用上海近年的数据进行实证分析，运用计量回归测定对外贸易依存度的影响因素，以探讨在资源禀赋的约束下和市场经济规律的作用下，我国贸易将走向何方。     

新疆经济开放度与经济增长的实证分析

本文通过对新疆经济增长与外贸依存度等变量之间协整关系分析 ,指出了外贸依存度是新疆经济增长的因 ,对外贸易对新疆经济增长的推动作用十分明显。而新疆对中亚五国外贸依存度、外资依存度则不是新疆经济增长的因 ,要将新疆建成我国西部国际商贸中心 ,必须防止通道经济和贸易空洞化 ,必须加大吸引外资的力度。     

中国M2／GDP过高的成因分析及调控路径选择——基于动态超调与跨期权衡视角

本文以动态IS-LM-BP模型为基础,以跨期权衡为出发点,以国际货币供给失衡以及中国拥有巨额外汇储备为研究背景,对M2/GDP持续走高这一经济现象进行了分析。结论认为,M2/GDP的变化并非单一的货币现象,而是受循环于实物经济体系之外的货币供给量的变化以及国际贸易不均衡、金融制度扭曲、经济结构缺陷等一系列因素的影响,我国金融管理当局应使用各种政策的组合来调整M2与GDP产出的关系。     

我国对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证研究

从我国现有的相关资料和数据入手,采用定性分析与定量分析相结合的方法,运用我国1978年至2010年间GDP、进口额、出口额的统计数据,对我国对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行了分析和研究,得出了相关结论。     

中国对外双边贸易均衡影响因素的实证分析——基于中国与114国的相关面板数据

对外双边贸易失衡已严重制约中国对外贸易的健康发展。本文在回顾与评析贸易均衡已有研究的基础上,选取中国与114国在1995～2008年间的双边贸易面板数据,应用修正后的Zakir和Ismail(2010)模型来实证分析中国对外双边贸易均衡影响因素。结果表明,伙伴国与中国的相对实际国内生产总值和贸易加权距离增加将恶化中国贸易收支状况;伙伴国与中国的相对实际人均收入和双边实际汇率增加会改善中方贸易收支状况。据此,本文提出中国平衡对外双边贸易收支的地区与国别政策。     

China trade: Busting gravity's bounds

Since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, annual growth rates of its imports and exports have increased, and raised tensions between China and some of its major trading partners. Using a gravity model of trade, we find that China's orientation toward foreign trade is much greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. Our analysis shows that China's excessive orientation toward foreign trade (“over-trading”) varies substantially across countries and we consider various explanations for the over-trading. A comparison of China's export boom with the earlier export booms of more market-based East and Southeast Asian economies shows that China's export boom has exceeded earlier booms in magnitude but not in duration. We conclude with a discussion of the likely scale of future export and import flows from and to China.     

How would Capital Account Liberalization Affect China＇s Capital Flows and the Renminbi Real Exchange Rates？

In this paper we study the determinants of gross capital flows, project the size of China's international investment position in 2020, and analyze the implications for the renminbi real exchange rate if China liberalizes the capital account. We assume in this exercise that the renminbi will have largely achieved capital account convertibility by the end of the current decade, a timetable consistent with recent proposals by the People's Bank of China. Our analysis shows that if the capital account were liberalized, China's gross international investment position would grow significantly, and inflows and outflows would become much more balanced. The private sector would turn its net liability position into a balanced position, and the official sector would reduce its net asset position significantly, relative to the country's GDP. Because of the increasing importance of private sector foreign claims and the decreasing importance of official foreign reserves, China would be able to earn higher net investment income from abroad. Overall, China would continue to be a net creditor, with the net foreign asset position as a share of GDP remaining largely stable through this decade. These findings suggest that the renminbi real exchange rate would not be particularly sensitive to capital account liberalization as capital flows are expected to be two‐sided. The renminbi real exchange rate would likely be on a path of moderate appreciation as China is expected to maintain a sizeable growth differential with its trading partners.     

Impact of the US–China trade war on resource allocation: Evidence from China's land supply

This study investigates the impact of the current United States (US)–China trade war on resource allocation, using monthly panel data at the city level; the data relate to the transfer of local government-controlled land from 2017 to 2019. The results show that the trade war significantly changed local governments' economic development strategies. As the trade war progressed, Chinese local governments shifted their attention to boosting the development of high-tech industries by significantly increasing the proportion of land supply for these industries. After the trade war, for every 1% increase in the US exports as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), land supply to high-tech industries increased by 0.25%. This effect is more prevalent in cities with more fiscal resources, a younger secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Municipal Committee, lower levels of public nationalism, and a larger share of foreign enterprises among exporters. These results are consistent with our assumption that the pressure generated by the US–China trade war has significantly increased the potential returns for local governments in terms of developing high-tech industries.     

Foreign direct investment, processing trade, and the sophistication of China's exports

China's export structure has shown a rapid shift towards more sophisticated industries. While some believe that this trend is a result of processing trade and foreign direct investment, the evidence is mixed. This paper examines variations in level of export sophistication across China's manufacturing industries. We find that an industry's level of export sophistication is positively related to the share of wholly foreign owned enterprises from OECD countries and the share of processing exports of foreign-invested enterprises, and negatively related to the share of processing exports of indigenous Chinese enterprises. Evidence from the relative export prices of Chinese goods, which measure within-product export sophistication, shows a similar pattern.     

Market reforms and consumption puzzles in China

China exhibits above average savings and below average consumption as shares of total economic activity when compared with other countries. At the same time, to create more balanced growth at home and rebalance key bilateral trade and capital flow relationships, China's leadership is trying to increase domestic demand. To complement studies that investigate the high rate of savings in China, this study focuses on the variation in consumption as a share of GDP across provinces between 1979 and 2004. Drawing on well-established consumption theories and work done on savings behavior in China, this paper develops an empirical investigation of the variables hypothesized to influence the pattern of consumption across regions.We find that the normal, economic variables have a small explanatory power if significant at all, while the key variables influencing the macro consumption share are structural, and mostly related to government behavior. For example, local government expenditure on health and education is significant and has a relatively large effect on consumption. Consistent with this we also find a positive relationship between consumption shares and the size of the state sector and the share of tax revenue in GDP. We also find some evidence that financial development has a positive effect on consumption shares. Our results suggest that in order for domestic consumption to be increased in the future, new public and private options to replace the declining security and responsibility of the prior state-dominated system will be needed.     

RCEP关税减让对各成员国的经济影响分析

大幅度削减成员国间关税是RCEP协议的核心内容,为了揭示RCEP成员国间关税减让的经济影响,文章首先分析了RCEP成员国间贸易现状、产品结构、进口关税和贸易竞争力,然后,运用GTAP模型模拟RCEP关税减让对各成员国宏观经济和产出的影响,得到结论如下：（1）RCEP关税减让可以缓解中美贸易摩擦对于中国经济的不利影响;（2）就短期而言,RCEP成员国间关税减让可以提高中国、日本、韩国和澳大利亚的GDP、社会福利、居民收入和消费水平等宏观经济效益,同时,还可以提高中国、韩国、澳大利亚、东盟的总产出水平;（3）就长期来说,实施零关税可能显著提升RCEP大多数成员国的宏观经济效益和产出水平。     

基于平衡计分法的房地产开发企业绩效评价体系

今年 2月 19日 ,我国改变了B股市场只对外国投资者开放的政策 ,允许境内居民进入B股市场。这一重大决策在广大境内外投资者、各家券商以及众多专家学者中引起了强烈的反响。B股市场缘何开放 ?本文对此进行了分析 ,指出恢复B股市场活力、有效利用我国居民外汇储蓄及实现我国证