Executive compensation and informed trading in acquiring firms around merger announcements

This paper analyzes informed trading in acquiring firms through (stock) merger announcements. We show that pre-announcement abnormal option volumes in acquiring firms strongly increase ahead of a stock merger (by approximately 300%). Furthermore, we show that the direction of option trades (puts or calls) prior to an announcement can predict post-announcement stock returns. Our results also indicate that higher wealth-to-performance sensitivities of top executives are related to higher abnormal put than call option trading before stock merger announcements. Overall, our results support the view that top executives have a hedging motive. They tend to purchase protection against, e.g., confounding (negative) information policies and/or empire-building mergers with negative NPVs, in order to avoid short-term salary losses (lower bonuses, lower stock options, etc.).     

Short selling,margin trading,and the incorporation of new information into prices

Utilizing daily data on Chinese stocks' short selling and margin trading activities and intraday stock trade and quote data, we find a positive association between the degree of information efficiency of stock prices and the intensity of short selling and margin trading. Short selling (margin buying) escalates during the 5 days immediately before significant negative (positive) information events, which suggests short sellers (margin buyers) anticipate forthcoming news. Using the adverse selection component of the bid–ask spread as a proxy, we find that short selling and margin trading are associated with an improved information environment. Taken together, our empirical evidence supports the conjecture that short selling and margin trading in the Chinese market help stock prices incorporate new information more efficiently. Utilizing the unique Chinese regulation, we also examine the role of brokerages authorized for such trading and document a non-linear relation between pricing efficiency and the number of authorized brokerages.     

The impact of derivatives hedging on the stock market: Evidence from Taiwan’s covered warrants market

We examine the impact of derivatives hedging on the spot market using accurate hedge ratios of covered warrants traded in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). Results present significant positive abnormal returns and trading volumes before the announcement of a warrant’s issuance, and the effect is stronger when the hedging demand is larger. Moreover, a significantly positive relationship exists between stock return volatility and the price elasticity of hedging demand. Finally, we observe a significantly negative price effect upon the underlying stock after a call warrant has expired in-the-money due to the liquidation of hedging portfolios.     

Twitter activity,investor attention,and the diffusion of information

We examine the impact of Twitter attention on stock prices by examining over 21 million company‐specific tweets over a 5‐year period. Through a quasi‐natural experiment identifying official Twitter outages, we find that Twitter influences stock trading, especially among small, less visible securities primarily traded by retail investors. In addition, we determine that Twitter activity is associated with positive abnormal returns and when tweets occur in conjunction with traditional news events, more information is spread to investors. Finally, we show that retail investor activity drives the Twitter effect as institutional investors less actively trade the affected stocks.     

Herding in the German Mutual Fund Industry

This paper analyses the trading activity of German mutual funds in the 1998–2002 period to investigate whether German mutual fund managers are engaged in herding behaviour. Another objective of the study is to determine the impact of this herd‐like trading on stock prices. Our results provide evidence of herding and positive feedback trading by German mutual fund managers. We show that a significant portion of herding detected in the German market is associated with spurious herding as a consequence of changes in benchmark index composition. Investigating the impact of mutual fund herding on stock prices, we find that herding seems to neither destabilise nor stabilise stock prices.     

Voluntary disclosures and the exercise of CEO stock options

We examine voluntary disclosures around the exercise of CEO stock options. Previous research shows that managerial incentives depend on the intended disposition of the exercised options' underlying shares. When CEOs intend to sell the underlying shares of exercised options, they have an incentive to increase stock prices in the pre-exercise period. In contrast, when CEOs intend to hold the underlying shares, they have a tax incentive to decrease stock prices in the pre-exercise period. Consistent with these private incentives, we find a significant increase in the frequency and magnitude of good (bad) news announcements in the pre-exercise period when CEOs implement exercise-and-sell (exercise-and-hold) strategies. We provide some evidence that CEOs' propensities for opportunistic disclosures are positively related to the value of their exercised stock options. Lastly, we find that the Sarbanes–Oxley Act (SOX) generally reduces, but does not eliminate, this type of managerial opportunism.     

Did institutions herd during the internet bubble?

We examine the trading behavior of institutional investors during the internet bubble and crash of 1998–2001, and its impact on stock prices. Similar to some recent findings concerning the trading behavior of hedge funds and NASDAQ 100 stocks, we find that during the bubble all types of institutions herded with great intensity into internet stocks for a comprehensive sample of institutional investors and internet stocks. In addition to this, we present three entirely new results. First, institutional herding was much greater than what can be explained by momentum trading. Second, institutions as a group continued to increase their holdings of internet stocks for two quarters past the market peak during the first quarter of 2000, and three quarters past the peak for individual stock prices, suggesting that institutions were unable to time the price peaks. Finally and most importantly, we find positive abnormal returns contemporaneous with institutional herding and negative abnormal returns (reversals) at the point that herding ceased. This finding suggests that institutions’ trading created temporary price pressures, and may have contributed to the bubble.     

Insider trading,future earnings,and post-earnings announcement drift

This paper examines the association between insider trading prior to quarterly earnings announcements and the magnitude of the post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). We conjecture and find that insider trades reflect insiders’ private information about the persistence of earnings news. Thus, insider trades can help investors better understand and incorporate the time-series properties of quarterly earnings into stock prices in a timely and unbiased manner, thereby mitigating PEAD. As predicted, PEAD is significantly lower when earnings announcements are preceded by insider trading. The reduction in PEAD is driven by contradictory insider trades (i.e., net buys before large negative earnings news or net sells before large positive earnings news) and is more pronounced in the presence of more sophisticated market participants. Consistent with investors extracting and trading on insiders’ private information, pre-announcement insider trading is associated with smaller market reactions to future earnings news in each of the four subsequent quarters. Overall, our findings indicate insider trading contributes to stock price efficiency by conveying insiders’ private information about future earnings and especially the persistence of earnings news.     

Stock Prices and the Secondary Dissemination of Information: The Wall Street Journal's "Insider Trading Spotlight"Column

In this paper we test whether a secondary dissemination of information affects stock prices. We examine stock price reactions to the publication of the “Insider Trading Spotlight”(ITS) column in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). Since insider trades reported in the ITS column are initially disclosed to the public when insiders’ reports are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the information contained in the WSJ is a secondary dissemination. Around the WSJ publication day, we find significant abnormal stock performance accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. Our evidence suggests that a secondary dissemination of information can affect stock prices if the initial public disclosure attracts only limited attention by the market. In addition, we document how insider trading information is conveyed to the market.     

The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading

Recent empirical research has identified a significant amount of volatility in stock prices that cannot easily be explained by changes in fundamentals; one interpretation is that asset prices respond not only to news but also to irrational “noise trading.” We assess the welfare effects and incidence of such noice trading using an overlapping-generations model that gives investors short horizons. We find that the additional risk generated by noise trading can reduce the capital stock and consumption of the economy, and we show that part of that cost may be borne by rational investors. We conclude that the welfare costs of noise trading may be large if the magnitude of noise in aggregate stock prices is as large as suggested by some of the recent empirical litrature on the excess volatility of the market.     

Options trading volume and stock price response to earnings announcements

We examine the effect of options trading volume on the stock price response to earnings announcements over the period 1996–2007. Contrary to previous studies, we find no significant difference in the immediate stock price response to earnings information announcements in samples split between firms with listed options and firms without listed options. However, within the sample of firms with listed options stratified by options volume, we find that higher options trading volume reduces the immediate stock price response to earnings announcements. This conforms with evidence that stock prices of high options trading volume firms have anticipated and pre-empted some earnings information in the pre-announcement period. We also find that higher abnormal options trading volume around earnings announcements hastens the stock price adjustment to earnings news and reduces post-earnings announcement drift.     

The Impact of Publication of Analysts' Recommendations on Returns and Trading Volume

Publication of security analysts' recommendations in the column “Inside Wall Street,” which is published in Business Week, induces abnormal returns on the publication day and the following day. The abnormal returns are robust to the use of alternative samples and methodologies. The publication increases trading volumes for the securities that are recommended to be purchased, but not for securities that are recommended to be sold. The abnormal returns and trading volumes support the view that stock prices do not adjust instantaneously when new information arrives, and that the time pattern of price adjustment depends on the time pattern of the accessibility of the information. The authors find no statistically significant difference between the average abnormal returns that are induced by recommendations that appear at the beginnings of “Inside Wall Street” columns (and are covered more extensively than others) and the average abnormal returns induced by other recommendations.     

The Impact of Corporate Governance Press News on Stock Market Returns

Stock market prices reflect information regarding firms’ business environments, operations and, in general, their fundamentals. Recently, various studies have analysed the link between news coverage and stock prices but no evidence exists on how channels and ways of communication of information affect investors’ behaviour. We analyses these aspects focussing on a large sample of corporate governance news published between 2003 and 2007 in ‘Il Sole 24 Ore’, Italy's major financial newspaper. We show that before news is made public investors are only able to assess the type of corporate governance event underlying it. After publication, investors are influenced by the content (positive or negative) and the tone of communication (strong or weak) of the news.     

The turn of the month effect in India: A case of large institutional trading pattern as a source of higher liquidity

We examine (via parametric and non-parametric tests) the turn of the month effect in the returns of various, size-conditioned Indian stock indices, across time, in up and down markets and independent of other seasonal anomalies. We find little support for the payday and the US macroeconomic news announcements hypotheses. Instead, we show that institutional traders (foreign and domestic) significantly increase their trading volumes (on the buying side) at month end, potentially pushing prices up. There is no evidence of a similar behavior on the retail side. We suggest this to be a major cause of the observable TOM effect in India.     

Asset Price Dynamics and Infrequent Feedback Trades

This article combines the continuous arrival of information with the infrequency of trades, and investigates the effects on asset price dynamics of positive and negative-feedback trading. Specifically, we model an economy where stocks and bonds are traded by two types of agents: speculators who maximize expected utility, and feedback traders who mechanically respond to price changes and infrequently submit market orders. We show that positive-feedback strategies increase the volatility of stock returns, and the response of stock prices to dividend news. Conversely, the presence of negative-feedback traders makes stock returns less volatile, and prices less responsive to dividends.     

Abnormal stock returns associated with media disclosures of ‘subject to’ qualified audit opinions

This paper contains evidence of a significant negative stock price reaction to media disclosures of ‘subject to’ qualified audit opinions. Disclosures of qualifications in the financial news media (the Wall Street Journal and the Broad Tape) are rare relative to the frequency of audit qualifications. Other studies do not detect an impact of qualified opinions on stock prices. None of the explanations for the difference in the results between this study and prior studies is consistent with the data. We are unable to draw strong inferences because we cannot identify the selection process that produces the sample of media disclosures.     

The persistent effects of a false news shock

In September 2008, a six-year-old article about the 2002 bankruptcy of United Airlines' parent company resurfaced on the Internet and was mistakenly believed to be reporting a new bankruptcy filing by the company. This episode caused the company's stock price to drop by as much as 76% in just a few minutes, before NASDAQ halted trading. After the “news” had been identified as false, the stock price rebounded, but still ended the day 11.2% below the previous close. We explore this natural experiment by using a simple asset-pricing model to study the aftermath of this false news shock. We find that, after three trading sessions, the company's stock was still trading below the two-standard-deviation band implied by the model and that it returned to within one standard deviation only during the sixth trading session. On the seventh day after the episode, the stock was trading at the level predicted by the asset-pricing model. We investigate several potential explanations for this finding, but fail to find empirical evidence supporting any of them. We also document that the false news shock had a persistent negative effect on the stock prices of other major airline companies. This is consistent with the view that contagion effects would have dominated competitive effects had the bankruptcy actually taken place.     

Empirical Identification of Non-Informational Trades Using Trading Volume Data

This paper empirically identifies non-informational and informational trades using stock returns and trading volume data of the U.S., Japanese, and U.K. stock markets and five individual firms. We achieve the identification by imposing a restriction from theoretical considerations. Our results show that trading volume is mainly driven by non-informational trades, while stock price movements are primarily driven by informational trades. We also find that, around the 1987 stock market crash, trading volumes due to non-informational trades increased dramatically, while the decline in stock market prices was due mainly to informational trades. Increases in volatilities both in returns and in trading volumes during and after the crash are mainly due to non-informational trades. Regarding the trading volume-serial correlation in the stock returns relationship, we find evidence that is consistent with theoretical predictions that non-informational components can account for high trading volume accompanied by a low serial correlation of stock returns.     

The ex-dividend day stock price anomaly: evidence from the Greek stock market

This paper examines the ex-dividend stock price and trading volume behavior in the Greek stock market for the period 2000–2004. We use both standard event-study methodology and cross-sectional regression analysis in assessing the ex-dividend stock price anomaly. We find that stock prices drop less than the dividend amount. By examining abnormal returns as well as abnormal trading volume around the ex-dividend day, we find strong evidence of short-term trading, which is consistent with the presence of dividend-capturing activities around the ex-dividend day. The results from the cross-sectional regression analysis confirm that the short-term trading hypothesis explains the ex-dividend day stock price anomaly in Greece.

The Effect of Regulation FD on Transient Institutional Investors' Trading Behavior

We assess the impact of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) on the trading behavior of transient institutional investors in the quarter prior to a bad news break in a string of consecutive earnings increases. Bad news breaks are defined as breaks that are by growth firms, preceded by longer strings of consecutive earnings increases, followed by longer strings of consecutive earnings decreases, and associated with larger declines in earnings. Pre–Reg FD transient institutions have abnormal selling of stocks in the quarter immediately preceding a bad news break. This abnormal selling is confined to firms that hold conference calls in the pre–Reg FD period. However, in the post–Reg FD period transient institutions do not exhibit similar abnormal selling of stocks in the quarter before a bad news break. Furthermore, after Reg FD transient institutions allocate less of their stock portfolios to conference call firms relative to non–conference call firms in the quarters prior to a bad news break. These results demonstrate that Reg FD has had an impact on management's selective disclosure behavior and significantly changed the trading behavior of transient institutions.