跨国公司在新兴市场国家的投资策略及其启示

随着新兴市场国家在世界经济中所占地位的不断提高,这些国家日益成为众多跨国公司的目标市场。在这种情况下,跨国公司在该类国家的投资策略就成为我们研究的重要课题。本文针对新兴市场国家的特点和跨国公司对其市场的投资策略的改变进行了分析,提出了这一改变对于中国的跨国公司的经营的一些启示。     

制度质量、FDI与人类发展水平——基于22个新兴市场国家数据的实证研究

人类发展水平是衡量地区社会进步的重要指标.基于2002年—2018年22个新兴市场国家的面板数据,从制度质量与外商直接投资的角度对其影响因素进行实证研究.研究结果表明,制度质量和外商直接投资均对人类发展水平具有正向影响,且制度质量与外商直接投资之间存在替代效应;在经济、政治、法律三种制度质量中,经济与政治制度质量对人类...     

发展中国家国际直接投资发展之路——投资发展周期理论述评

本文认为,英国经济学家邓宁的投资发展周期理论(即IDP理论)及净对外直接投资(NOI)概念是分析研究发展中国家企业成长和对外直接投资增长趋势的有用工具.该理论按照人均GDP水平将国家的国际直接投资发展道路分为五个阶段,处于不同阶段的国家,其国际直接投资流入流出水平各不相同,其净对外直接投资先负后正,上下波动,但波幅趋小.以投资发展周期理论模型来分析,中国目前正处于第二阶段的后期,将向第三阶段转移.     

新兴市场国家市场进入模式选择

新兴市场国家是世界上重要的商品供应国和销售市场,加之其经济转轨的进一步深入,日益成为众多跨国公司的目标市场。在这种情况下,该类国家的市场进入模式选择就成为我们研究的重要课题。本文针对新兴市场国家的特点和跨国公司对其市场的适应性两方面进行分析,提出了笔者对于此类国家市场进入模式的认识和看法,希望对跨国公司市场进入具有一定的现实指导意义。     

新兴市场国家市场进入模式选择

新兴市场国家是世界上重要的商品供应国和销售市场,加之其经济转轨的进一步深入,日益成为众多跨国公司的目标市场。在这种情况下,该类国家的市场进入模式选择就成为我们研究的重要课题。文章针对新兴市场国家的特点和跨国公司对其市场的适应性两方面进行分析,提出了笔者对于此类国家市场进入模式的认识和看法,希望对跨国公司市场进入具有一定的现实指导意义。     

通货膨胀:新兴市场国家的最大煎熬

如果说次贷危机和信贷紧缩成为了工业化发达国家面临的最大挑战的话,那么通货膨胀的卷土重来并不断加剧则是新兴市场国家所需解决的最棘手难题。这一人类经济老牌敌人的嚣张气焰不仅构成了对新兴市场国家经济快速前行脚步的重大掣肘,而且在当前的国际经济环境中其完全退出和遁形也尚需许久时日。     

我国对外直接投资的实证研究:IDP检验与趋势分析

本文选取1985-2004年间的对外直接投资及其相关数据作为研究样本,在IDP理论的框架内,通过数据和模型变量优化,就我国对外直接投资与经济发展阶段之间的关系进行了实证检验。同时,从量化的角度,通过国际比较对我国对外直接投资的发展趋势做了进一步的分析。     

我国对外直接投资发展周期的实证检验

笔者研究投资发展周期规律时,结合我国对外直接投资的现状,就我国对外直接投资所处的阶段,以邓宁IDP理论实证表明:我国1992年以前为投资发展第一阶段,1992-2006年进入第二阶段,2006年至今处于投资发展的第三阶段.本文综合和扩展了我国跨国公司对外直接投资阶段的进一步研究.     

基于国际投资理论的中国经济发展周期分析

随着经济的持续快速发展和外国直接投资的不断增加,中国的经济发展水平越来越高.本文从国际直接投资相关理论的角度,探讨了中国经济发展周期,并对中国经济发展周期的状况进行了实证研究,提出建议为宏观决策提供参考依据.     

新兴市场国家汇率制度选择与金融危机

20世纪以来,新兴市场国家频繁爆发金融危机,尤其是90年代,从1994年的墨西哥金融危机到1997年中国香港和东南亚国家的全局性金融危机,再到俄罗斯、巴西1998年、1999年的金融动荡。2000年后,阿根廷于2001年7月出现汇率突然波动和比索大幅贬值,爆发了金融危机。当然,引起金融危机的原因多种多样,国外投机冲击、金融过度自由化、财政债务等,但汇率制度的选择也是诱发金融危机或抵御危机的一个重要因素。本文归纳分析了近些年来新兴市场国家汇率制度变化,通过定量和定性相结合的分析方法研究汇率制度与金融危机之间的关系,研究得到结论:钉住汇率制度会引起货币错配和投机攻击而引发金融危机,但浮动汇率的金融风险传染作用则更大。     

The Determinants of Bond Market Development: Further Evidence from Emerging and Developed Countries

The objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the structural, financial, developmental, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of bond market development for a sample of 22 emerging and developing countries over the period 1990–2013. We employ both the Prais-Winston and system GMM procedures to tackle the problems of endogeneity among the explanatory variables and our measure of bond market development, group-wise heteroscedasticity, and contemporaneous cross-sectional and serial correlations in the residuals. Our results suggest that a combination of structural, financial and institutional factors seem to exert a significant effect on bond markets. Indeed, economic size, trade openness, investment profile, GDP per Capita, bureaucratic quality, and size and concentration of banking system are positively related to bond market development, while interest rate volatility and fiscal balance are negatively associated with the development of bond markets. Those results are robust to the inclusion of developed countries' bond markets, international bonds issuers, and to possible structural breaks.     

Market Entry Strategies in Emerging Markets: An Institutional Study in the BRIC Countries

This article addresses two of the strategically important questions of market entry strategies in emerging markets: how to enter and when to enter. Furthermore, we investigate the relationship between market entry strategies and market success. On the basis of the institutional theory, we develop hypotheses that are tested against data collected from 564 foreign firms with operations in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China), using an online survey. Our findings suggest that market entry strategies have a significant effect on market success, showing the greatest market success in India and the lowest in China. We also find that entry mode and length of operation exhibit a significant positive effect on market success. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

SHIBOR市场预期理论的实证检验

本文使用SHIBOR市场期限为1个月及以上的中长端利率数据,针对由预期理论推导出的三个模型进行了回归检验,提出期限为1个月的利率与其它长端利率的利差是平稳的,但是利差对长短期利率变动的预测与理论不一致,即存在预期迷惑现象,因而拒绝了预期理论;长端利率之间的利差不平稳,因而长端利率整体上不支持预期理论。此外,考虑到回归结果的稳健性,本文还按照不同的方式选取了两组样本数据,通过使用不同的数据仍然可以得到相似的结论,这表明回归结果是在一定程度上是稳健的。对预期理论的背离表明SHIBOR市场中长端利率的变动未能充分反映金融市场资金的供需情况,因而有待进一步发展。     

东道国金融发展和我国企业对外直接投资——基于动机异质性视角的实证研究

国内金融发展落后导致的资金供给不足是我国企业对外直接投资在快速发展中遇到的制约因素之一,在这种情况下东道国金融发展将构成有效的补充,本文基于此研究东道国金融发展对我国不同动机企业对外直接投资的影响。本文的理论和实证研究发现总体上东道国规模层面金融发展能有效促进我国企业对外直接投资,而结构层面金融发展并未产生直接影响;更为深入地,东道国规模层面金融发展对于吸引我国横向动机企业对外直接投资有明显的正向影响,而结构层面只有金融发展程度较高时才能促进我国纵向动机企业对外直接投资,较低的结构层面金融发展会阻碍我国企业对东道国的纵向动机对外直接投资。进一步地,本文使用企业对外直接投资新设项目数进行研究,发现总体上东道国规模和结构层面金融发展均有助于新项目的设立;但在动机角度,仅有结构层面金融发展促进我国在东道国纵向动机对外直接投资项目的设立,而规模层面金融发展对我国横向动机对外直接投资项目则不产生影响。     

海湾六国经货联盟经济周期同步性分析

海湾六国计划在2010年建立单一货币联盟,而经济周期同步性是货币联盟稳定性的重要基础条件。本文从经济周期同步性角度考察海湾六国是否具备货币联盟稳定性的基础条件。本文通过建立多变量向量误差修正模型(VECM),并依据共同趋势和共同周期理论,对海湾六国的经济周期同步性进行了经验分析。分析结果表明:海湾六国不仅在长期内经济周期有共同的随机发展趋势;而且在短期内,经济周期是完全同步的。因此,海湾六国基本上满足货币联盟稳定性的基础条件。     

Organizational Isomorphism and Corruption in Financial Institutions: Empirical Research in Emerging Countries

The globalizations of capital markets in the last 20 years has led to a historic degree of financial integration in the world. It is clear, however, that globalization is not conducive to a complete homogeneity of financial markets and institutions. Among others, one element of diversity is the importance of the impact of corruption in emerging countries. Corruption decreases the credibility of financial institutions and markets. Scandals and unethical behavior in financial institutions erode confidence in such firms. Relying on neoinstitutional literature, this article focuses on the link between corruption and organizational isomorphism in financial institutions in emerging countries. Therefore, our aim is to examine the institutional reasons for corruption in financial institutions in emerging countries. Our structural equation model is based on empirical research in financial institutions in emerging countries. A questionnaire was administrated to 70 top executives of financial institutions in 18 different emerging countries.     

外国直接投资与中国区域经济发展的实证分析

20世纪90年代以来FDI对中国经济发展影响越来越大。本文利用1991-2003年时间序列和横断面数据,就FDI对中国区域经济发展的短期效应和长期效应进行实证分析。结果表明在这段时间里FDI对中国区域经济非均衡发展有显著的影响,FDI促进中国区域经济发展,但是在区域间的非均衡分布又加剧了区域经济的非均衡发展。最后提出吸引更多的FDI到中西部地区、缩小区域经济差距、促进区域经济均衡发展的政策建议。     

Predicting and Explaining Responses to Consumer Environments: An Empirical Test and Theoretical Extension of the Behavioural Perspective Model

The Behavioural Perspective Model (BPM) classifies consumer behaviours based on their utilitarion and informational consequences; it further categorises them by the scope of the settings in which they occur. An empirical study (N = 561) shows these outcomes to predict consumers’ verbal reports of their affective shows that Mehrabian and Russell's [1974] measures of pleasure, arousal and dominance are predicted by the structural features of consumer situations proposed by the BPM: the pattern of reinforcement and behaviour setting scope. Reported pleasure is higher for consumer behaviours defined in terms of relatively high utilitarian reinforcement; reported arousal is higher for consumer behaviours defined in terms of relatively high informational reinforcement; and reported dominance is higher for consumer behaviours enacted in relatively open settings. In light of its neo-Skinnerian derivation, the BPM interpretation currently emphasises a radical behaviourist philosophy of science. However, an alternative interpretation in terms of Staats's [1996] psychological behaviourism is proposed and the capacity of this alternative framework of conceptualisation and analysis to offer theoretical extension to the BPM research programme is explored.     

Segmenting and Profiling the Chocolate Consumer: An Emerging Market Perspective

Psychographic segmentation has found higher merit among marketing scholars and practicing managers in designing effective marketing strategies to target and deliver better—especially for indulgence food such as chocolates. Hence, adopting a mixed method approach, 17 attitudinal statements were generated through focus group discussions and were used to segment a sample of 301 urban chocolate consumers. The survey data was subjected to a K-means cluster analysis, and it revealed the existence of three distinct clusters: the innovative national; the conservative patriot; and the global seeker. Chi-square analysis was conducted to profile the three groups. Though the study was exploratory in nature, the clusters exhibited such distinct buying patterns that the results hold tremendous value not only from an academic perspective but also for chocolate manufacturers and retailers. All three groups were buying chocolates for gifting purpose, while the young innovators liked to buy for self-gifts as well. Point of sales display had maximum impact on their purchase decision. The global seeker was buying more foreign brands versus the other two, who bought chocolate brands of national origin.