The significance of structural transformation to productivity growth

This paper critically discusses the most common methodology for decomposing productivity change into inter- and intra-firm effects. It is argued that the methodology can be improved to explicitly take the role of structural transformation into account, and by so doing, a potential source of bias in the results is corrected. This requires the use of a tool from the field of theoretical evolutionary biology: Price’s equation. A review of a sample of studies that apply decomposition analyses shows that the methodology is best suited for studies of the evolution of labour productivity and the reallocation of labour. Based on Danish data for 1992–2010, it is then demonstrated how the results of decomposition analyses can be considerably improved by the explicit inclusion of levels in the selection process. In the specific analysis conducted by the current paper, economic selection among industries is included. It is found that the structural transformation of the economy has a large impact on the results of decomposition studies, not least on the magnitude of the inter-firm selection effect. Structural transformation from capital-intensive and thus high-labour-productivity manufacturing towards labour-intensive and thus low-labour-productivity services entails that the traditional methodology is biased downwards in its measure of economic selection. Finally, it is demonstrated that the length of the interval studied, while often determined by data limitations, has a significant but predictable effect on the results, and it is tentatively demonstrated that economic selection tends to be stronger in the trough of the business cycle.     

The structural transformation and aggregate productivity in Portugal

We document the substantial process of structural transformation—the reallocation of labor between agriculture, manufacturing, and services—and aggregate productivity growth undergone by Portugal between 1956 and 1995. We assess the quantitative role of sectoral labor productivity in accounting for these processes. We calibrate a model of the structural transformation to data for the United States and use the model to gain insight into the factors driving the structural transformation and aggregate productivity growth in Portugal. The model implies that Portugal features low and roughly constant relative productivity in agriculture and services (around 22%) and a modest but growing relative productivity in manufacturing (from 44 to 110%). We find that productivity growth in manufacturing accounts for most of the reduction of the aggregate productivity gap with the United States and that a further closing of this gap can only be accomplished via improvements in the relative productivity of services. This paper was written while the authors were affiliated with the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. We would like to thank the editor, two anonymous referees, and participants at the Third Conference on Portuguese Economic Development in the European Context organized by the Bank of Portugal for their comments. All errors are our own.     

Government intervention,sectoral productivity growth and structural transformation

This article examines the long-term impact of government intervention and sectoral productivity on structural transformation. We construct a multi-sector Dynamic General Equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates government intervention as a force of structural transformation. The government affects the economy through taxation and lump sum transfers. We show that in the steady state, a reduction in the tax rate and an increase in sectoral productivity will decrease the agricultural employment share, and when nonhomotheticity of preference is strong enough, these changes can also increase the share of services employment.     

金融发展与中国二元经济结构转换

传统的二元经济理论只考察了资本因素在经济发展不平衡中的作用,并没有把金融发展因素纳入其中进行分析,而传统的金融发展理论研究的焦点主要集中在金融发展与经济增长的关系上,对金融发展与二元经济结构之间的关系重视不够。中国是一个典型的城乡二元经济结构的发展中国家,而我国城乡金融发展差距是城乡经济发展差距存在的一个重要原因。因此,解决我国二元经济结构问题的一个重要方面就是要均衡城乡金融发展。     

Labour quality in Taiwan: measurement and contribution to economic growth

This article compiles labour input indices that capture both employment changes and quality improvement of labour in Taiwan, from 1994 to 2011. Up to 77.19% of average annual labour input growth is from quality improvement. Further decomposition reveals that the most important source of growth is educational attainment, followed by age structure. Moreover, we find that Taiwan’s average annual GDP growth rate does not result from capital investment but from the contribution of a stable labour input to economic growth. Taiwan is a newly industrialized country, but because of the diminishing returns to capital, the catch-up effect has been slower than hoped. Additional capital investment has a relatively small effect on productivity, and the main source of the continuous economic growth rate is from labour quality, especially from highly skilled human capital. Making good use of these human resources creates a stable source of sustained economic growth.     

Agricultural productivity,the real effective exchange rate,and structural change: Some evidence from Africa

Agriculture is thought to play a number of roles in the early development process. All of these roles involve fostering non‐agricultural development, in particular manufacturing. It is argued in this paper that agriculture plays a role that has hitherto been ignored. Specifically, if agricultural labor productivity increases faster than manufacturing labor productivity, the real effective exchange rate will depreciate. This depreciation of real effective exchange rate occurs because in very poor countries agriculture makes up the dominant share of both GDP and employment. The depreciation also makes it easier for a country to expand the production of tradables relative to nontradables, with manufacturing being the main tradable. This proposition, which as agricultural labor productivity increases relative to manufacturing labor productivity the real effective exchange rate depreciates, is tested using data drawn from 10 sub‐Saharan African countries.     

Intrasectoral structural change and aggregate productivity development: robust stochastic nonparametric frontier function estimates

This paper investigates the sources of total factor productivity growth in the German manufacturing sector during 1981–1998. Decompositions of aggregate productivity growth are used to identify the effects of structural change and entry–exit on aggregate productivity growth. We find a substantial rise in productivity growth after the German reunification. The bulk of this rise can be attributed to structural change and entry–exit. Two methodological refinements are implemented. The first refinement is the application of robust stochastic nonparametric approaches to frontier function analysis, and the second is the calculation of bootstrap confidence intervals for the components of the productivity decompositions.     

Understanding the demand-side of economic change: a contribution to formal evolutionary theorizing

An outstanding fact of capitalist change in the last few centuries is the ongoing emergence of new consumption alternatives which accompany income and productivity growth in expanding economies. Far from satiating consumers, exponential economic growth seems to stimulate human desires by providing novelty and variety embodied in a persuasive flow of unsettling goods. Although this is a well-known fact characteristic of capitalist change, little attention has been paid by modern growth theorists to the understanding of demand-side phenomena related to the increasing significance of consumption activities in our societies. Against this background, in this article, we show that as soon as we start drawing the demand-side contour of economic change, new phenomena appear which enrich our understanding of economic growth and structural change. By using ‘replicator dynamics’ systems, consumption dynamics are formally linked to the ongoing generation of innovations in capitalist economies. Certain emergent properties concerning economic growth and structural change and several policy implications follow.     

The Luenberger productivity indicator: An economic specification leading to infeasibilities

This contribution points out an error in the specification of technology when computing the Luenberger productivity indicator that has been hitherto ignored in the literature. The solution of this problem increases the likelihood that the directional distance functions underlying this productivity indicator are ill-defined.     

The contribution of weather variability to economic sectors

Every day, people make economic decisions based on the weather, affecting sales of companies in a wide range of economic sectors. In many cases, the impact of weather on sales is not constant from one season to the next. Yet, the existing research to estimate the influence of temperature on annual sales has not analysed the relationship per season, resulting in potential washout effects and underestimated weather impacts. Drawing upon French economic sectors for empirical evidence, we break down the analysis of the relationship between weather and monthly sales by season. Our methodology provides the cumulative annual contribution of weather to sales and allows deriving the maximum potential annual impact of adverse weather. With our results, analysts and risk managers can better understand the exposure to abnormal weather and consider the potential benefits of mitigating weather risk using the weather parameters we identify to structure bespoke index-based financial instruments.     

陈豹隐对马克思主义经济理论的贡献及启示

陈豹隐是中国著名的老一辈经济学家,他一生的学术研究对马克思经济学理论的传播、继承与发展作出了巨大贡献,他在商品、商品生产、价值、价值规律方面的研究具有独特价值并给我们以重要启示。     

转轨经济中的掠夺之手

经济转轨中的政府可能成为掠夺之手。在我国由于长期存在的意识形态的惯性和强政府弱社会的格局以及税制改革造成了地方政府的掠夺行为。为此，如欲限制政府的掠夺行为，在长期必须以经济改革促宪政转轨，形成社会的“自生能力”；在短期必须改革税制，缩短行政代理链条。     

Boosting tourism's contribution to growth and development: Analysis of the evidence

The tourism sector's contribution to economic development depends upon complex and dynamic socioeconomic, environmental, and institutional factors. Policymakers require objective evidence to base decisions on which public policies or investments to pursue. In this paper we develop an economy‐wide approach to assessing public investments in tourism. The approach is powerful in that it considers all inter‐sectoral linkages that are critical for tourism‐sector analysis. This framework is linked to a microsimulation module that enables estimation of household‐level and destination‐specific impacts and the distribution of benefits. To illustrate the framework and the insights it can generate, we apply it to a public investment in Belize's Cayo District. Our findings show that the overall level of economic activity increases while an appreciation of the real regional exchange rate results in slower growth in traditional nontourism exports. Greater availability of capital and labor to meet increased demand would reduce this effect. The investment results in a reduction in the poverty headcount on the order of 0.7 percentage points, though there is a small increase in inequality that is a function of the skill requirements of the new positions created as a result of the investment.     

广州市教育投资对经济增长贡献率的实证分析

有关数据表明，科技进步对经济增长的贡献率已经从20世纪初的5—20％提高到20世纪90年代的70％-80％。广州市作为经济开放的前沿城市，经济增长速度长年处于全国前列，那麽广州市教育投资的经济效益如何？为广州市经济增长带来了多大贡献呢？本文运用C—D函数模型（柯布-道格拉斯函数模型）进行了实证分析。     

Value and exchange in economic theorizing: The contribution of the Freiburg School

The purpose of this contribution is to point out the main characteristics of the research program of the German economist Walter Eucken, the head of the Freiburg or ORDO-school. An exposé of his thoughts will be given on (a) the relation between theory and history, (b) the foundations of economic science (c) his contributions to economic theory, and (d) his contributions to the theory of economic policy. Moreover the relevance of the contribution of the Freiburg School (Eucken) to the theme of this symposium on value and exchange in economic theorizing will get attention.     

Agricultural research and biological productivity: Some Australian results

Data on scientific publication is used as a proxy for the intensity of research activity in a study of the influence of research on agricultural productivity. Publications are separated according to the commodity to which they are related.     

新疆银行信贷规模对于经济增长贡献实证分析

通过采集1990—2010年共21年来新疆各项贷款合计数据与GDP数据,运用回归分析模型和Granger因果检验,分析了信贷规模与GDP之间的关系。分析结果表明（：1）新疆信贷规模与GDP之间存在显著的关联关系;（2）信贷规模的短期波动对GDP有着显著的正影响,其弹性系数为1.19;（3）在短时期内,信贷是带动新疆GDP增长的原因之一,但长时期内,信贷规模与经济增长两者间不具有因果关系。     

Decomposing the contribution of firm innovation to aggregate productivity growth: the case of Chinese manufacturing industry

This article proposes a generalized productivity decomposition approach to evaluate the contribution of firm innovation to aggregate productivity growth (APG) of China’s manufacturing industry. Results indicate that APG is mainly driven by firm-level productivity improvements, while across-firm resource misallocations lead to sizable productivity losses. The weak contribution of firm innovation to APG is found to be mainly caused by resource misallocations within innovating firms. The results suggest that firm innovation has not yet taken a dominant driving force for APG.     

Interaction between knowledge and technology: a contribution to the theory of development

Abstract.  This article attempts to explain the large and persistent disparities in levels of output per worker across countries. It is argued that an explanation for these disparities requires an understanding of the relationship between knowledge and technology. The model that is constructed can be summarized as an open-economy version of the Solow-Swan growth model, in which technological change is investment specific, and knowledge about new technologies is embodied in labour. In the model, income differences arise because poor countries lack the knowledge to implement foreign technologies productively. Furthermore, these disparities persist when countries differ in their ability to learn. JEL classification: F43, O11