The effects of grants and wages on municipal labour demand

In this paper we investigate the determinants of municipal labour demand in Sweden 1988–1995. Utilising a major grant reform in 1993, through which a switch from mainly targeted to mainly general central government grants occurred, we are able to identify which type of grants that have the largest effects on municipal employment. We find a larger municipal employment elasticity with respect to grants before the reform, which we interpret as evidence that general grants have less employment effects than specific ones. We further find a short run wage elasticity of approximately −0.5 and a long run ditto of approximately −0.9, and a quite sluggish adjustment process: only 60% of the desired change in municipal employment is implemented in the first year.     

REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF DEVELOPMENT GRANTS IN INDONESIA'S WATER SUPPLY SECTOR

Over successive five-year development plans, Indonesia has channeled large sums of foreign loans and domestic funds into water supply projects with the aim of providing clean water for a majority of households. Most projects have been planned and financed through the central government's public works ministry, though a growing share of rural water projects are being funded through earmarked grants provided to local governments. This paper examines how these central government transfers, in the aggregate, have responded to various indicators of expenditure needs. Overall, past allocations have matched existing demand and supply levels closely–funding has generally favored provinces with large populations, large numbers of water enterprises, extensive distribution networks in place, and high production capacity. They have not, however, worked in favor of either equalization or economic productivity objectives, as reflected by per capita income or GRDP growth rates. This analysis suggests that equity would be promoted either by including income-related factors in future block grant allocation formulas or by shifting funding emphasis in the water supply sector from grants-in-kind controlled by the central government to sectoral grants controlled mainly at the local level. Such policy reforms would also further promote the nation's professed goal of decentralizing infrastructure development.     

Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time

US payroll employment data come from a survey and are subject to revisions. While revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to alter assessments of current economic conditions. Users must therefore exercise caution in interpreting state employment data until they are “benchmarked” against administrative data 5–16 months after the reference period. This article develops a state-space model that predicts benchmarked state employment data in real time. The model has two distinct features: (1) an explicit model of the data revision process and (2) a dynamic factor model that incorporates real-time information from other state-level labor market indicators. We find that the model reduces the average size of benchmark revisions by about 11 percent. When we optimally average the model’s predictions with those of existing models, the model reduces the average size of the revisions by about 14 percent.     

On-the-job training and rigidity of employment protection in the developing world: Evidence from differential enforcement

This paper analyzes the causal effect between strict employment protection regulations and the firm incentive to invest in job training of their employees. We explore a large firm level data set across several developing countries and assume that the rigidity of labor regulations affects more the investment decision of firms that faces a rigid enforcement of labor regulations. Our findings show that differences across countries in the enforcement of more rigid employment protection regulation are associated with very small differences in the investment in job training across firms. This finding is robust across several specifications and samples.     

Executive stock option compensation: The corporate reporting decision

New regulations instituted in 1992 by the SEC require that estimates of the values of executive stock option grants now be included in proxy statement reports on senior executive compensation. We examine the character of firms' reporting choices under the new rules, from a large sample of the first round of proxy statements issued. We find that the majority of firms have elected a reporting approach that provides little additional information to investors, and appear at least in part to have done so because the alternative approach would have caused them to report above-average stock option compensation amounts for their executives.     

Collectivism versus individualism in Dutch employment relations

From a very centralistic and collectivistic tradition after World War Two, Dutch employment relations now show a trend towards radical decentralisation and individualisation. What might be the consequences of this trend for labour relations? Do developments still fit within a movement towards ‘organised decentralisation’ or will the existing system of labour relations be hollowed out and destroyed? And what will be the consequences for ER management at company level? We present empirical data on how companies deal with their decentralised and individualised employment relations. It appears that, in the main areas such as labour contracts, working time arrangements, reward systems and development plans, decentralisation and individualisation are taking place. It has also become clear that management as well as workers support this and that a new form of negotiation between them is developing at workplace level, resulting in what we call ‘third contracts’ that are additional to the initial labour contract and the collective agreement. Our results also highlight the pragmatic way in which companies deal with these decentralised and individualised employment relations, which, nevertheless, remain linked to the national and collective levels of bargaining. Within the multilevel system of Dutch employment relations a new balance between collectivism and individualism is emerging.     

Employment,Social Mobility and Neighbourhood Effects: The Case of Sweden

In science and in society at large, there is a big debate going on about the existence and potential impact of ‘neighbourhood effects’. The dominant question is: does the social composition of the neighbourhood have specific positive or negative effects on the career prospects of those who are living there? We seek to contribute to this debate by investigating the relationship between individual social mobility and the social composition of the residential environment. For that purpose we analysed new longitudinal Swedish data, which is available at the individual level. We particularly focused our attention on the employment careers of individuals in relation to the levels of employment or unemployment in their individual environments. Environment effects on social mobility were isolated, controlling for relevant variables that were available at the individual level. We were also able to control for changes in the environments over time. Individual longitudinal data could be used over the period 1991–9. The analyses revealed that their environment appears to have a moderate yet clear impact on the employment prospects of unemployed individuals. The academic relevance of the article is in its contribution to the theoretical underpinnings of the human–environment relationship; the societal relevance is to the area‐based policies and the housing policies aimed at social mixing, which are currently being developed in many places in the Western world.     

Grants structure when the type of public project is endogenous

This paper gives an insight into changes in intergovernmental grants structure, focusing on the type of public project. Presenting a simple model which incorporates the endogenous determination of project type and grants structure, the results show that as the relative cost encountered by central government in collecting public funds increases, the central government tends to choose types of projects which local governments prefer and adopt block grant systems. The resulting equilibrium is compared with an optimal solution based on an utilitarian welfare function. Received: December 22, 2000 / Accepted: September 20, 2001     

The Sorting of Female Careers after First Birth: A Competing Risks Analysis of Maternity Leave Duration

A number of contributions have found evidence that motherhood is a critical life event for women's employment careers. This study presents a detailed analysis for the duration of maternity leave in which young mothers can make a transition into different types of employment, unemployment as well as the next birth. We provide a comprehensive picture of the sorting mechanisms that lead to the differentiation of women's employment careers after birth. Our empirical evidence is derived from large‐linked administrative individual labour market data from Germany for a period of three decades. We obtain unprecedented insights into how women's skills, the quality of the previous job match, firm level characteristics, labour market conditions and leave legislation are related to the length of maternity duration. Expansionary leave policies, e.g. are found to be a key factor for the rising share of women who have their second child out of inactivity.     

Stock Options and Firm Performance: New Evidence from the French Market

This study investigates the effect of stock option‐based compensation on the short‐term and long‐term performance of French companies. To the best of our knowledge, we provide the first empirical evidence describing the market reaction following initiations and renewals of Employee Stock Option (ESO) plans in France. We find that the French market reacts positively to initiations of ESO plans but does not consider their renewal as relevant information. Our results on the long‐term effect of ESO plans suggest that neither the size nor the value of the grants affect the firm's accounting and market performance. Similarly, corporate performance prior to the grant has no explanatory power of the size or value of the grant. This implies that, over our sample period, the relationship between option‐based compensation and corporate performance in France was inexistent, regardless of the direction considered.     

What Do Wages Add to the Health‐Employment Nexus? Evidence from Older European Workers

The role of wages in the health‐employment nexus can be important for designing employment policies aimed at older workers with health limitations. We, therefore, estimate the direct effect of health on employment and hours worked and its indirect effect that is mediated through wages using individual‐level panel data from SHARE. The endogeneity of self‐reported health is controlled for by instrumenting it with severe health conditions in a correlated random effects model. For men, we find that the direct effects of health deterioration, as measured by a reduction in health from the 75th to the 50th percentile of the health distribution, are about a 20% point lower employment probability and about 171 fewer hours worked per year. The indirect health effects through wages work in the opposite directions as health positively affects wages and wages negatively affect employment and hours worked. The total effects of this health deterioration amount to a 12% point lower employment probability and 95 fewer hours worked per year. In particular our finding of a large direct health effect on employment suggests an instrumental role for policy aimed at accommodating workers with health limitations to keep them employed at older ages.     

The government wage bill and private activity

We estimate the macroeconomic effects of public wage expenditures in U.S. data by identifying shocks to public employment and public wages using sign restrictions. We find that public employment shocks are mildly expansionary at the federal level and strongly expansionary at the state and local level by crowding in private consumption and increasing labor force participation and private sector employment. Similarly, state and local government wage shocks lead to increases in consumption and output, while shocks to federal government wages induce significant contractionary effects. In a stylized DSGE model we show that the degree of complementarity between public and private goods in the consumption bundle is key for explaining the observed heterogeneity.     

高校资助工作与国家资助体系有机结合

为了建立健全家庭经济困难学生资助政策体系,国家相继出台了一系列助学金及奖学金政策。但是"如何围绕育人这一中心,增强资助工作的实效性,促进高校科学和谐发展"已成为当前高校资助工作面临的共同课题。     

Do Inward Investors Achieve their Job Targets?*

The paper utilizes data for north‐east England over the period 1985–98 to examine if foreign‐owned start‐up plants achieve their job targets. Different models are estimated, each shedding light on the relationship between the jobs promised by plants in their initial investment and their actual employment attained. On average, it is found that the plants achieve their job targets, but larger plants fall someway short. It is argued that these plants may deliberately overstate the number of jobs, and that the employment‐creation claims of inward investors and economic development agencies should be treated with skepticism.     

The tortoise and the hare: the impact of employment instability on firm performance

The main objective of this study is to assess the influence of employment instability on firm performance in a sample of publicly traded firms. Competing theoretical arguments are considered with regard to likely outcomes associated with employment instability. A large sample of cross‐sectional time‐series data is then analysed using generalised estimating equations (GEE) regression techniques. Results indicate that employment instability is negatively associated with firm performance, although the relationship is also demonstrated to be quadratic (an inverse U‐shaped relationship). This suggests that the main relationship varies depending upon the level of employment instability. Industry characteristics are also examined as moderators of this main effect. The results suggest a disordinal interaction effect for industry differentiation, where employment instability is negatively associated with firm performance for firms in highly differentiated industries and positively associated in less differentiated industries.     

Imports,technology, and employment: Job creation or creative destruction

This study examines the employment impact of technology by using firm-level survey data for a large number of developing countries. We not only examine the impact of technology on overall employment but also investigate the effect on different types of employment, such as skilled, unskilled, temporary, and seasonal. Considering asymmetric distribution of employment, we utilize quantile regression for empirical analysis. Our findings unequivocally suggest that technology does not kill jobs. Further, we could not find any skill-biased impact of technology. Finally, results suggest that technology received through alternative sources works in combination, enhances absorptive capacity and promotes employment.     

Impact of trade liberalization on firm's labour demand by skill: The case of Tunisian manufacturing

This paper investigates the impact of the trade liberalization process in Tunisia on employment by distinguishing different skills and different types of firms using micro level data covering the period of 1983–1994. There is considerable disagreement among analysts on the impact of recent trade reforms upon labour. Our contribution to these debates in this paper is essentially an empirical issue. The analysis of a Tunisian firm's data may be viewed as an attempt to apprehend how employment in Tunisia, a developing country, adjusted to the trade reforms. Using micro-level detail on individual firms, we are able to trace the relationship between changes in trade policies and manufacturing employment at firm level and by skill. Although trade reforms are generally implemented at the sector level, their effects may vary significantly across firm characteristics such as output orientation. We measure the effects of trade policy on employment according to different types of firms. We also associate changes in employment directly with a measure of change in trade protection, rather than linking them to changes in imports and exports which would be more common. The results suggest that the impact of trade liberalization on labour demand depends on a firm's characteristics. In particular, the estimates obtained suggest that trade liberalization has beneficial effects on employment for exporting-firms. Conversely, trade liberalization has negative and disciplinary effects on employment for domestically oriented firms. The reduction in tariff levels conducted in this first phase of liberalization in Tunisia seems to have had effects with different intensity on unskilled labour and on skilled labour; this justifies the examination of these two skills.     

Employment in China’s hi-tech zones

The purpose of this paper is to explore employment differences over time across China’s hi-tech zones. Using data from China’s Ministry of Science and Technology, we find that if a university science park is within a hi-tech zone, employment in that zone is higher, but that finding only holds for zones established in the pre-information communication technology period. After 2000, proximity to a university science park does not appear to be necessary for the exchange of tacit knowledge which we contend leverages the technology base of firms and organizations in the zone and thus their level of employment. We also find greater employment in hi-tech zones in which information technology is a dominant industry.     

Labour market institutions and employment in France

The purpose of this paper is to use individual data to study how the minimum wage and the welfare system combine to affect employment in France. Using the 1997 Labour Force Survey, we decompose non‐employment of married women into three components: voluntary, classical (due to the minimum wage) and ‘other’ (a residual category). We find that the minimum wage explains close to 15% of non‐employment for these women and that the disincentive effects of some welfare policy measures may be large. Our approach also allows us to evaluate various labour and welfare policy experiments in their effects on participation and employment. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The flypaper effect and political strength

Simple models of local government behavior predict equal effects of private income and unconditional federal grants on local government expenditures. Numerous empirical analyses, however, find that the effect of grants is larger than the income effect. We argue that this flypaper effect may be a result of weak political leaderships in multi–issue and multi–party decision–making environments. In multi–issue institutions, a strong political leadership may reduce inefficiency due to interest group influence and inter–party bargaining in the local council. Utilizing data for Norwegian local governments in the 1930s, we find that political strength reduces the size of the flypaper effect. When the local council consists of only one political party, we cannot reject absence of a flypaper effect, while the flypaper effect is large in fragmented local councils. Received: June 2000 / accepted: February 2001