Tightening credit standards: the role of accounting quality

Over the latest 20 years, the average credit rating of U.S. corporations has trended down. Blume et al. (1998, Journal of Finance, 53, 1389–1413.) attribute this trend to a tightening of credit standards by agencies. We reexamine the observed decreases in credit ratings in several ways. First, we show that this downward trend does not apply to speculative-grade issuers. Second, our analysis of investment-grade issuers suggests that the apparent tightening of standards can be attributed primarily to changes in accounting quality over time. After incorporating changing accounting quality, we find no evidence that rating agencies have tightened their credit standards.

Credit Risk and the Term Structure of Lease Rates: A Reduced Form Approach

Previous research either assumes default free leases or leases subject to default risk using a structural approach. However, structural credit risk models suffer from a common criticism that the firm’s asset value process is unobservable. We develop a reduced form credit risk model for leases that avoids making assumptions regarding unobservable asset valuation processes. Furthermore, we assume a correlated market and credit risk that provides us with a simple analytic formula for valuing defaultable lease contracts. Numerical analysis reveals that tenant credit risk can have a substantial impact on the term structure of leases. Finally, we use the model to demonstrate the implied lease term structure for a set of retail and financial firms in the Fall of 2000.

Credit default swap prices as risk indicators of listed German banks

This paper explores empirically the usefulness of credit default swap (CDS) prices as market indicators. The sample of reference entities consists of large, internationally active German banks and the observation period covers 3 years. By analysing the explanatory power of three risk sources: idiosyncratic credit risk, systematic credit risk and liquidity risk, we gain important insights into modeling the dynamics of CDS spreads. The impact of systematic risk, for example, has three components; one is related to the overall state of the economy, another related to the risk of the internationally active banking sector, and the third is an unobservable systematic factor. Default probabilities, inferred from a tractable reduced form model for CDS spreads, are compared with expected default frequencies from the Moody’s KMV model. The results lend empirical support to the hypothesis that structural models can be less informative than reduced-form models of CDS spreads in the case of banks with major investment banking activities as the leverage loses explanatory power. Although the CDS market appears to have matured over the observation period, during certain periods premiums for liquidity risk can increase substantially thus limiting the value of CDS spreads as market indicators. We conclude that equity prices and CDS premia should be considered together to fully exploit the information content of both market indicators and to mitigate their respective drawbacks.

Market Segmentation Effects in Corporate Credit Rating Changes: The Case of Emerging Markets

We examine stock market reactions to corporate credit rating changes in 26 emerging market countries included in the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Emerging Market Index. We hypothesize and test the notion that emerging market firms in the American Depository Receipts (ADRs) markets are more likely to purchase ratings from the Big Two (Moody’s and S&P), and that they react more strongly to the announcements of corporate rating changes by Moody’s or S&P than to those of raters in local markets. We compare the effect of credit rating changes of the Big Two in two emerging stock markets: local markets (local currencies) and ADR markets (U.S. dollars). We find significant price reactions in the ADR markets, and insignificant reactions in local markets, and conclude that there is capital market segmentation in ADR markets for credit rating changes of emerging market firms. We find evidence that investors react more strongly in the ADR markets than local markets because they require higher costs of capital for firms cross-listed both in the ADR markets and local markets due to greater expected bankruptcy costs and foreign exchange risks of those firms. We also report that stock markets react significantly, not only to rating downgrades, but also to upgrades in the ADR markets.

Dynamical analysis of corporate bonds based on the yield spread term-quality surface

Our aim of this research is to propose a model which estimates implied relative credit reliability from the yield spread of defaultable bonds and evaluates their spread risk. We introduce “yield spread term-quality surface” (YSTQS) which is defined on the space of duration and credit reliability of the issuers, and express their yield spread. First, we review the general pricing theorem of defaultable bonds with unpredictable recovery in the no-arbitrage context based on the external hazard rates. Second, we show that the dynamics of state variables determine the shape of the YSTQS, and they drive the YSTQS if the loss-adjusted hazard rates are described by a function of them. Finally, we show an empirical analysis of our model with daily yield spread, duration, and the credit ratings of corporate bonds.

Estimating Default Probabilities of CMBS Loans with Clustering and Heavy Censoring

This paper provides a comprehensive default estimation of commercial real estate loans with a complete commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) loan history database. Standard survival models assume that eventually every observation will experience the event. However, often there is a high proportion of censored observation in the sample. A mixture model is proposed to disentangle the probability of “long-term survivorship” and the timing of default occurrence. Loans within the same geographical area and property type tend to exhibit correlation in default incidence. A multilevel model is proposed to capture this correlation within and between clusters.

Lemmings in the bond market? An empirical analysis of the term structure of credit spreads

The paper examines the credit spread between government and corporate bonds at different maturities. Theoretical models assume that credit risk premiums for high quality firms monotonously increase with maturity. We find evidence suggesting that bonds issued at maturities attracting the highest issuance volumes tend to have credit risk premiums that are on average 10 to 15 basis points higher than issues at nonconventional maturities. These results point out a shortcoming of existing theoretical models and show that the credit yield curve is not smooth, but affected by the local supply of issues at various parts of the yield curve. In addition, the empirical evidence presented in this paper indicates that firms utilizing the bond markets for funding could lower their funding costs by shifting the term of their debt away from the most commonly targeted maturities.

Credit Unions and Small Business Lending

Among the issues raised by consolidation within the banking industry is a concern that small businesses will be less able to obtain credit as community banks are acquired by larger or non-local institutions. Community banks have traditionally been a major source of funding for small businesses. The impact of bank consolidation on credit availability may depend in part on whether the remaining community institutions expand their small business lending activities. This study examines whether credit unions have a propensity to extend business loans in markets that have experienced bank merger and acquisition activity. We find some evidence that credit unions are more likely to engage in business lending in markets characterized by greater bank merger and acquisition activity. Moreover, the estimated economic significance is meaningful in many of the specifications.

How Much Do Banks Use Credit Derivatives to Hedge Loans?

Before the credit crisis that started in mid-2007, it was generally believed by top regulators that credit derivatives make banks sounder. In this paper, we investigate the validity of this view. We examine the use of credit derivatives by US bank holding companies with assets in excess of one billion dollars from 1999 to 2005. Using the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Bank Holding Company Database, we find that in 2005 the gross notional amount of credit derivatives held by banks exceeds the amount of loans on their books. Only 23 large banks out of 395 use credit derivatives and most of their derivatives positions are held for dealer activities rather than for hedging of loans. The net notional amount of credit derivatives used for hedging of loans in 2005 represents less than 2% of the total notional amount of credit derivatives held by banks and less than 2% of their loans. We conclude that the use of credit derivatives by banks to hedge loans is limited because of adverse selection and moral hazard problems and because of the inability of banks to use hedge accounting when hedging with credit derivatives. Our evidence raises important questions about the extent to which the use of credit derivatives makes banks sounder.

Should more local governments purchase a bond rating?

We investigate whether issuers that choose to forgo a bond rating suffer an interest cost penalty greater than the cost of the rating. We use estimated ratings provided by Moody’s Investor Service to proxy for what the rating would have been if it had been purchased. We find that the primary factors associated with an issuer’s decision to purchase a rating are the rating expected by the issuer and the extent to which an issue is marketed locally. After controlling for self-selection bias, we find that the issuers that forgo a rating do not suffer an interest cost penalty.

Bank capitalization and lending behavior after the introduction of the Basle Accord

In this paper, we provide evidence that banks with a low level of capitalization have reduced their commitment with respect to lines of credit after the introduction of the Basle Accord. A bank's lending behavior reflects its level of commitment towards borrowers, which in turn affects the level of effort it exerts on screening and monitoring the activities of borrowers. We find that the post-Basle Accord market reaction to the announcement of lines of credit issued by banks with a low level of capitalization is significantly lower than the reaction to other types of bank credit announcements. We interpret this result as evidence that some banks have a low level of commitment associated with lines of credit after the Basle Accord.

Fortune Favours the Bold? Exploring Tournament Behavior among Australian Superannuation Funds

In this paper we investigate the tournament induced risk-shifting behavior of Australian “multi-sector growth funds”. We apply a regression-based methodology and examine tournaments based on the calendar year and the financial year. In our core analysis we find evidence in favor of Taylor’s (J Econ Behav Organ 1455:1–11, 2003) risk shifting tournament hypothesis for financial year-end tournaments. Apart from the standard tournament hypothesis we also report a range of findings regarding stability; fund age; and fund size. Support for the Taylor hypothesis generally continues across these variations as well.

Information, Credit Risk, Lender Specialization and Loan Pricing: Evidence from the DIP Financing Market

We provide an empirical support for theories of lender specialization using the recently developed market for Debtor-in-Possession (DIP) financing. The legal environment in which DIP financing operates represents a natural laboratory for testing determinants of lending specialization (e.g. lender choice). We find that the choice of lender is not driven by credit risk, but by information considerations and that this lending specialization has loan pricing effects. In short, banks (non-bank lenders) lend to more (less) transparent firms and at lower (higher) loan spreads. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that banks provide important and useful services.

Fundamental Real Estate Prices: An Empirical Estimation with International Data

We propose two alternative models to estimate fundamental prices on real estate markets. The first model is based on a no-arbitrage condition between renting and buying. The second model interprets the period costs as the result of market equilibrium between housing demand and supply. We estimate both models for the USA, the UK, Japan, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. We find that observed prices deviate substantially and for long periods from their estimated fundamental values. However, we find some evidence that, in the long-run, actual prices tend to return to their fundamental values progressively. This result is due to both impulse–response functions and forecast analyses. In particular, we find that using the fundamental price significantly increases the accuracy of out-of-sample long-term forecasts of the price.

Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk

In financial groups, enterprise risk management is becoming increasingly important in controlling and managing the different independent legal entities in the group. The aim of this paper is to assess and relate risk concentration and joint default probabilities of the group’s legal entities in order to achieve a more comprehensive picture of a financial group’s risk situation. We further examine the impact of the type of dependence structure on results by comparing linear and nonlinear dependencies using different copula concepts under certain distributional assumptions. Our results show that even if financial groups with different dependence structures do have the same risk concentration factor, joint default probabilities of different sets of subsidiaries can vary tremendously.

The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models

We present new empirical evidence on the contextual nature of the predictive power of five statistically-based quarterly earnings expectation models evaluated on a holdout period spanning the twelve quarters from 2000–2002. In marked contrast to extant time-series work, the random walk with drift (RWD) model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step-ahead quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of high-technology firms (n = 202). In similar predictive comparisons, the Griffin-Watts (GW) ARIMA model provides significantly more accurate quarterly earnings predictions for a sample of regulated firms (n = 218). Finally, the RWD and GW ARIMA models jointly dominate the other expectation models (i.e., seasonal random walk with drift, the Brown-Rozeff (BR) and Foster (F) ARIMA models) for a default sample of firms (n = 796). We provide supplementary analyses that document the: (1) increased frequency of the number of loss quarters experienced by our sample firms in the holdout period (2000–2002) vis-à-vis the identification period (1990–1999); (2) reduced levels of earnings persistence for our sample firms relative to earnings persistence factors computed by Baginski et al. (2003) during earlier time periods (1970s–1980s); (3) relative impact on the predictive ability of the five expectation models conditioned upon the extent of analyst coverage of sample firms (i.e., no coverage, moderate coverage, and extensive coverage); and (4) sensitivity of predictive performance across subsets of regulated firms with the BR ARIMA model providing the most accurate predictions for utilities (n = 87) while the RWD model is superior for financial institutions (n = 131).

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Does a Bank’s Loan Screening and Monitoring Matter?

We investigate the relationship between the borrower’s abnormal loan announcement return and the bank’s loan screening and monitoring using a new ex-ante proxy for loan screening and monitoring. While recent studies have suggested that bank loan relationships and related loan screening and monitoring services may no longer matter, we find significant loan announcement returns over the 1995–1999 period and, controlling for borrower and loan characteristics, a statistically significant positive relationship between the proxy and the borrower’s standardized CAR. While consistent with a bank’s loan screening and monitoring adding value to the borrower, the economic effect is relatively small.

Trading House Price Risk with Existing Futures Contracts

This paper examines the use of futures contracts to hedge residential real estate price risk. We examine whether existing futures contacts can effectively be used to offset volatility in national house prices. Little evidence of any simple systematic relation between national prices and futures prices is found. Since house prices are not easily replicated with a portfolio of existing futures contracts, a further implication is that the Chicago Mercantile’s introduction of a financial asset whose value reflects house prices will help complete the market. Nevertheless, the success of the CME’s new derivative contracts may be limited in light of state and regional house price correlations.

Can corporate governance save distressed firms from bankruptcy? An empirical analysis

We examine financially distressed firms and document how governance characteristics affect (1) a firm’s ability to avoid bankruptcy and (2) the power of financial/accounting information to predict bankruptcy. Overall, our findings indicate that a distressed firm’s governance characteristics significantly affect its probability of bankruptcy. We find that smaller and more independent boards with a higher ratio of non-inside directors and with larger ownership stakes of inside directors are more effective at avoiding bankruptcy once distress is indicated. These results are consistent with the belief that these types of governance structures induce more effective monitoring. The results are also consistent with the view that the inclusion of governance characteristics enhances the power of financial accounting models in predicting bankruptcy.

An evaluation of conditional multi-factor models in active asset allocation strategies: an empirical study for the German stock market

This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of asset allocation strategies that use conditional multi-factor models to forecast expected returns and estimate the future variance and covariance. We find that strategies based on conditional multi-factor models outperform strategies based on unconditional multi-factor models, and do better than a passive buy-and-hold strategy. However, a strategy that uses the sample mean as a return forecast is superior. We also find that the estimation of the covariance matrices based on the conditional and unconditional multi-factor models does not improve the performance of the active asset allocation strategy relative to the incorporation of the historical covariance matrices. These results are fairly robust to different estimation approaches, as well as to the impact of transaction costs and the consideration of upper and lower bounds for the portfolio weights.