信托业能否立稳江湖

2002年,日益开放的中国金融领域发生了许多引领学界瞩目的新鲜事,其中,信托产品在沉寂多年之后,似乎一夜之间重现江湖.整个下半年,由上海爱建信托投资公司、上海国际信托投资公司在黄浦江边制造的"信托风暴"一直吹到全国.几乎是忽如一夜春风来,资金信托计划遍地开花,北京、上海、浙江、深圳、重庆、新疆等地相继推出10多个信托产品,销售金额高达30亿元.资金信托因其收益率明显高于银行储蓄和债券,而风险小于股票,摇身一变重新成为投资者的投资新宠,热热闹闹地在民间掀起过一股不小的投资狂热.     

金融支持海绵城市建设情况、问题及建议

一、基本情况 （一）中央鼓励金融机构加大对海绵城市信贷支持力度。1．中央政府层面。为应对水资源短缺和城市内涝等危机,国家主席习近平在2013年中央城镇化工作会议上要求,大力推进建设雨水自然积存、渗透和净化的“海绵城市”。2015年4月和2016年4月,国务院公布分别公布两批16个海绵城市建设试点名单,包含重庆、武汉、厦门、萍乡、常德及深圳、上海、天津、北京等城市。2015年10月,国务院办公厅下发《关于推进海绵城市建设的指导意见》,要求各有关方面将海绵城市建设作为重点支持的民生工程,充分发挥开发性、政策性金融作用,鼓励相关金融机构积极加大对海绵城市建设的信贷支持力度。鼓励银行业金融机构在风险可控、商业可持续的前提下,对海绵城市建设提供中长期的资金支持,积极开展购买服务协议预期收益等担保创新类贷款业务,加大对海绵城市建设项目的资金支持力度。     

中国碳金融市场风险度量研究北大核心CSSCI

本文以中国碳金融市场5个碳排放权交易所(北京、上海、深圳、天津、湖北)的收益率为研究对象,采用不同的分位数回归模型对碳金融市场风险水平进行度量与实证检验。研究结果表明:相较于CAVia R族模型,QAR-GARCH模型更适合对中国碳金融市场风险的刻画;中国各地碳金融市场均处于发展阶段,尚未成熟;就中国5大碳市场发展成熟度的比较而言,上述两种模型均显示深圳市场的发展成熟度较高,湖北成熟度最低。     

股权分置改革对我国证券市场波动性的实证分析

为了解决股权分置的难题,中国证监会在2005年对上海证券交易所与深圳证券交易所的上市公司进行了全流通改革.由此,利用上证综合指数日收益率和深证成份指数的日收益率数据,采用GARCH(1,1)-M模型与EGARCH(1,1)-M模型对收益率的波动性进行研究.研究结果显示上海证券市场存在较明显的"杠杆效应",且股权分置改革对上海证券市场的影响较大,对深圳证券市场的影响较小;同时也显示沪深证券市场的期望收益与期望风险存在正向关系.     

工程质量潜在缺陷保险制度下的工程质量风险管理模式研究

一、背景介绍 2002年10月,建设部借鉴法国、西班牙等国外的建筑工程质量保险的成功经验,提出在我国现有的建筑工程质量管理体系中引入建筑工程质量保险,在北京、上海等城市先后开展了住宅质量保证保险和建筑工程质量保险的试点工作。2004年开始,建筑工程质量保险试点工作扩大至北京、上海、天津、重庆、兰州、成都、深圳、厦门、福州、大连、宁波等11个城市展开。     

基于半参数GARCH的沪深两市收益率波动和风险的实证研究

本文基于2005年1月4日至2009年11月30日的数据，运用GARCH模型研究上海和深圳两个股市间的收益率及波动性对于分析股市结构和判断股市走势及风险传递的意义。并运用半参数模型计算VaR值来测度金融市场风险。     

热榜

2013最佳高中最近,位于美国华盛顿的中国研究中心推出2013年中国260所最佳高中。北京人大附中、湖北华中师大第一附中、北京四中位居前三甲。2013年中国城市财力50强近日,《投资时报》推出"2013年中国城市财力50强"排行榜,上海、北京、天津、深圳、重庆、苏州、广州、武汉、杭州、成都位居"2013年中国城市财力50强"前10名。     

我国养老保险基金投资运营的风险评估

本文通过运用条件风险价值模型,选取1996~2015年间的上证收益率、五年期国债利率、一年期银行存款利率数据,对我国养老保险基金投资运营的风险进行了研究。主要结论:我国养老保险基金的投资渠道有限,且过分依靠银行存款和国债。虽然风险低,但导致资金的投资收益率也低,很难解决当前我国养老保险基金亏空带来的强大压力。所以,扩大养老保险资金的投资范围显得尤为重要。只有使得养老保险基金流入社会的各个层面,才能更加平衡整个社会的结构,使得养老保险基金实现真正的增值。在风险可靠地前提下,使得收益率成倍的增加,这样才能逐步弥补这个巨大的亏空,实现养老保险基金规模由负转正。     

静态资本资产定价模型的有效性检验——基于Fama-Macbeth估计方法

本文利用36只深圳A股从1997年至2006年的月收益率数据,借助EXCEL软件,运用标准Fama-Macbeth估计方法来检验静态CAPM模型的有效性:以5年期的时间窗口进行时间序列回归,来估计CAPM模型的贝塔值;进行截面回归估计CAPM模型风险溢价和截距的平均值。并通过计算两个回归的值来判断静态CAPM模型对资产收益率波动的解释力。研究发现市场组合的超额收益率对个股、股票组合的超额收益率有较强的解释力;然而,CAPM模型的贝塔值对个股、股票组合的超额收益率的解释力均有限,但对股票组合的解释力要好于个股。     

中国证券市场投资风险研究—基于上海股市2010-2013年数据

利用VaR-GARCH（1,1）模型,对我国上海股票市场2010年6月8日至2013年6月6日的收益率序列进行实证分析的结果表明：上海股票市场的对数收益率时间序列存在显著的ARCH效应,并且考察期的收益波动幅度也较大;VaR值的计算结果也与实际情况相符合。两者来相互配合可以共同刻画证券市场的投资风险。     

MARGIN TRADING: A RISK-RETURN ANALYSIS

This paper attempts to present an integrated valuation analysis of investment options involving margin trading. The analysis is based on valuation theories such as Modigliani and Miller's capital structure model, the capital asset pricing model and the option pricing model. It is shown (i) that in margin trading, the return on equity is given by the return on investment plus a risk premium which increases proportionally with the margin-trading rate; (ii) that both the total risk (variance) and systematic risk (beta) of the return on equity increases proportionally with those associated with the return on investment; and (iii) that, when the option pricing model is applied to the case of margin trading, a more precise valuation formula can be employed.     

A text book treatment of calculating returns on non-traditional portfolios

This paper addresses a gap in traditional portfolio literature by providing techniques for identifying returns on non-traditional portfolios.Futures contracts require daily cash flows over the holding period; these cash flows determine the rate of return. The security deposit represents a tied investment since the funds are not available for other uses and do not earn a risk adjusted return. To initiate a short option or a short stock position also requires a cash outflow. The cash outflow or equity deposit effectively constitutes an investment since the trader postpones consumption in a risky medium that does not guarantee the return of the funds.By identifying the amount of the investment and rates of returns, it is possible to extend normative investment analysis to non-traditional portfolio holdings. This paper introduces four propositions to aid in this process.     

中国企业年金计划担保机制研究

为顺利推进养老金制度改革、减小职工面对的投资风险、平衡职工间的收益差异,多数国家建立起了以收益率担保为主的DC型企业年金担保机制。我国的企业年金计划也引入了风险准备金制度,但这一绝对收益率担保政策尚存在担保评估周期模糊、担保收益率较低、担保方式和资金来源单一的问题。特别地,在年金基金面临投资亏损、企业(计划发起人)或年金计划破产等担保需求下,当前我国迫切需要进一步完善收益率担保机制并构建破产担保机制。     

银行价格竞争、融资约束与企业研发投资——基于“中介效应”模型的实证研究

近年来我国利率市场化改革积极推进,实体经济发展积极向创新驱动转型,一个亟须研究厘清的关键问题是,银行业竞争如何驱动企业创新活动？本文关注银行价格竞争对企业创新的影响,以2013—2018年沪深两市的上市企业为样本,采用“中介效应”因果分析模型,实证检验了银行价格竞争对企业研发投资的影响,并识别出以融资约束为中介渠道的作用机制。研究发现,银行价格竞争不仅会提高银行的风险容忍度,直接增加R&D投资的信贷供给意愿,而且还会通过降低贷款价格和增加贷款可得性来缓解企业整体的融资约束,间接促进企业创新活动。这一机制在解除贷款利率管制之后以及在民营企业层面体现得更加明显。本文的研究结果对于深化金融市场化改革、改善金融服务实体经济效果以及实施经济创新驱动发展战略,具有明确的政策启示。     

Die Risikoübernahme von Versicherungsunternehmen: Eine empirische Analyse für Deutschland und Großbritannien

In this paper we analyze the risk resulting from an insurer’s investment policy. For this a hypothetical asset return rate is defined, based on which the German and British insurance market is analyzed. The study design allows an investigation of the investment risk in different countries or for different lines of business. The aim of the analysis is to detect general market trends in the investment policy and an analysis of effects of important changes over time on the investment risk of insurers. The questions analyzed in this paper are also of particular relevance beyond the background of current reform proposal for insurance regulation in Europe in the field of risk management and capital adequacy (Solvency II).     

我国保险资金境外投资风险防范探析

随着保险业发展速度的加快,保险投资资金的不断增多,使保险资金境外投资逐步成为国内保险机构扩展投资领域、提高保险资金投资收益的重要途径。但与境外投资高收益相伴的是不容忽视的高风险,2008年下半年以来,随着美国次级债风波演变为百年难遇的全球性金融危机,国际金融形势风云突变,对外投资形势日趋严峻,我国保险资金对外投资面临着严峻的风险。本文通过对当前我国保险业保险资金境外投资面临的风险分析,采取理论与案例相结合的方式,从保险监管方式、内部风险控制、资产负债匹配、投资比例限制及投资人才储备等方面提出我国保险资金境外投资风险的具体策略和措施。     

Fair wages,labor relations and asset returns

The paper investigates the nexus between labor and financial markets, focusing on how labor union’s attitude in the wage-setting process and the firm’s investment strategy affect asset returns. We assume that the labor union’s relative preferences between wage and employment depend on selected measures of firm’s financial performance. The paper shows that if the labor union ties its preference for wage to the firm’s dividends (or to any other quantity measuring available liquidity), then the volatility of the firm’s returns increases. Consequently, equities have to grant high expected returns in order to remunerate the increased volatility. This mechanism offers an explanation for the “equity premium” (that is the difference between the equity return rate and the risk free rate). It is a welcome result that the simulated excess return is about the empirical estimate and that it is obtained with a plausibly low parameterization of the shareholders’ risk aversion.     

资产负债指数：资产负债匹配管理框架下的保险固定收益投资绩效评价

保险机构必须在同时考虑资产和负债的基础上进行投资决策,提供足够回报支持未来预期的承诺支出。因此,保险绩效考核具备一定的特殊性和复杂性,使用一般的市场指数无法激励投资人活动与公司的价值取向形成一致。本文分析了保险投资的绩效评价要点,尝试在资产负债匹配管理的框架下,构建符合保险公司固定收益资产投资要求的定制化基准——资产负...     

Bank activity and funding strategies: The impact on risk and returns

This paper examines the implications of bank activity and short-term funding strategies for bank risk and return using an international sample of 1,334 banks in 101 countries leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Expansion into noninterest income-generating activities such as trading increases the rate of return on assets, and it could offer some risk diversification benefits at very low levels. Nondeposit, wholesale funding in contrast lowers the rate of return on assets, while it can offer some risk reduction at commonly observed low levels of nondeposit funding. A sizable proportion of banks, however, attract most of their short-term funding in the form of nondeposits at a cost of enhanced bank fragility. Overall, banking strategies that rely prominently on generating noninterest income or attracting nondeposit funding are very risky, consistent with the demise of the US investment banking sector.     

Guaranteed Investment Contracts: Distributed and Undistributed Excess Return

Annual minimum rate of return guarantees are analyzed together with rules for distribution of positive excess return, i.e. investment returns in excess of the guaranteed minimum return. Together with the level of the annual minimum rate of return guarantee both the customer's and the insurer's fractions of the positive excess return are determined so that the market value of the insurer's capital inflow (determined by the fraction of the positive excess return) equals the market value of the insurer's capital outflow (determined by the minimum rate of return guarantee) at the inception of the contract. The analysis is undertaken both with and without a surplus distribution mechanism. The surplus distribution mechanism works through a bonus account that serves as a buffer in the following sense: in (‘bad’) years when the investment returns are lower than the minimum rate of return guarantee, funds are transferred from the bonus account to the customer's account. In (‘good’) years when the investment returns are above the minimum rate of return guarantee, a part of the positive excess return is credited to the bonus account. In addition to characterizations of fair combinations of the level of the annual minimum rate of return guarantee and the sharing rules of the positive excess return, our analysis indicates that the presence of a surplus distribution mechanism allows the insurer to offer a much wider menu of contracts to the customer than without a surplus distribution mechanism.