集群内非对称核心企业与配套企业间承诺可信问题及其影响机制分析

基于中观层面的集群非对称核心企业与配套企业关系,构建核心企业与配套企业可信承诺的理论模型,探讨了企业层面的承诺可信问题及其影响机制。研究发现,市场价格偏离承诺价格的波动幅度对企业双方承诺可信具有决定性作用,一旦波动幅度超越一定界限,承诺将会变得不可信。而且,市场价格偏离承诺价格的波动幅度期望值、关系资本投入、交易费用节省以及预期合作得益等因素对企业双方承诺可信度具有重要影响,相应的数值模拟分析同样印证了这一结论。承诺可信问题具有一定的普适性,对探究许多非对称主体之间的关系,如农户与龙头企业以及其它类型主体之间的承诺可信问题等,有一定的参考价值。     

可信承诺、政治制度与经济绩效——兼论诺思国家理论的新进展

可信承诺不仅是国家理论的核心问题,而且是经济体所面临的最紧迫、最重要的一个问题。Schelling开创了对可信承诺问题的分析。诺思将可信承诺问题置于发展研究的中心位置,在经济学文献中将权力、可信承诺与政治制度乃至经济绩效问题联系起来进行考察。国家(政府)的本质两难充分说明政治领域存在着严重的承诺问题。政治制度是可信承诺的装置,它约束了国家机会主义行为,鼓励了生产性活动。     

分配承诺、产权与经济效率

在政府分配的承诺可置信时,地方政府分权竞争的结果是资方获得了最大利益,而劳方的利益被忽视了。而当政府分配的承诺不可置信时,资方的投资生产激励会受到较大的削弱,社会福利会受到较大损害。关于中国经济增长奇迹的经济解释,文章认为:在改革开放初期,中性政府对经济增长起到了很重要的作用;而随着改革开放的深入,地方政府分权的竞争激励机制可能起到了更为重要的作用。产业结构与产权保护有着密切的关系,要使产业结构完成升级,拥有良好的产权保护制度是一个重要条件。针对地方政府分权竞争带来的问题以及承诺可置信性缺失,文章引入第三方规制和以权力配置作为一种可信承诺等两种解决途径,并指出了其不足之处。     

从斯密到杨小凯:内生比较优势理论起源与发展

本文以内生比较优势为线索 ,对国际贸易理论进行梳理 ,认为斯密、汉密尔顿、李斯特、克鲁格曼、杨小凯等贸易理论 ,虽然时代不同、观点各异 ,但其主旨都在于倡导内生比较优势的培植与创造。据此 ,内生比较优势对于转型经济———中国尤为重要 ,在未来发展中 ,只有通过分工、专业化、规模经济与市场份额的拓展 ,形成内生比较优势 ,中国才能走出“产业结构低度化”的外生比较优势陷阱。     

内生货币供给理论述评

内生货币供给理论是货币经济学的重要内容之一。通过系统、全面地阐述、评价内生货币供给理论和观点———从斯图亚特到当代的后凯恩斯主义内生货币供给理论及其发展,我们认为,依照内生货币供给理论进行宏观调控对于我国目前经济形势下所执行的货币政策措施具有启示作用。     

可信承诺理论及其应用

可信承诺是博弈论中的一个重要的概念,动态博弈的一个中心问题是“可信性”问题。所谓可信性是指动态博弈中先行为的博弈方是否该相信后行为的博弈方会采取对自己有利的或不利的行为。因为后行为方将来会采取对先行为方有利的行为相当于一种“承诺”,而将来会采取对先行为方不利的行为相当于一种“威胁”,因此我们可将可信性分为“承诺     

转型经济学向何处去

转型经济学是当前国内外经济研究的热门领域之一。随着研究的不断深入,转型经济学开始逐渐与其他经济学分支走向融合。然而,这并不意味着对转型经济的研究是没有意义的,正相反,转型经济研究对经济学家提出了更高的要求,只有将转型经济的起点———计划经济、终点———市场经济,以及两者之间的过渡阶段有机结合起来,才能为转型国家的经济发展找到准确的发展方向和现实的发展途径,进而为完善和发展经济学理论开辟道路。     

中国产业结构升级 内生动力：需求还是供给

一国产业结构转型的内生动力包括需求和供给两个方面。本文构建了综合上述两类影响因素的产业结构转型模型。通过对模型的校准和模拟，本文发现需求方面的收入增长和供给方面的资本深化两个因素对我国结构转型的影响较大，而技术进步率差异的影响程度较小。因此，保持一定的投资速度，从而稳定增长，提高居民收入，深化资本劳动比是调整产业结构的重要力量。同时，为了在未来推动产业结构升级，需要进一步提高第一产业和第二产业的技术进步率。     

转型时期暴富群体的政治经济学分析

转型时期暴富群体的政治经济学分析于祖尧（中国社会科学院经济研究所）我国经济转型时期分配关系的重要变化之一，就是出现了一个特殊的社会群体———暴富群体。研究现阶段收入分配关系是不能回避这个问题的。要弄清转型时期的暴富群体问题，必须立足于我国的实际。一、...     

能源约束、绿色技术创新与可持续增长——理论模型与经验证据

本文在内生经济增长框架下,揭示了绿色技术创新推动经济可持续增长转型的内生机制,理论研究表明:绿色技术创新是推动经济增长的重要动力和源泉;在既定的生产技术水平下,技术进步的绿色程度越高,越有利于企业生产过程中的节能减排。进一步的实证研究表明:绿色技术进步显著地提高了行业TFP增长率,同时降低了行业污染排放;绿色技术创新具有同时提高产品清洁度和企业生产效率的作用,是行业实现绿色可持续增长转型的内生动力。未来在推动中国经济增长的结构性调整与转型过程中,应注重绿色技术的研发、引进与市场化推广。     

A model selection approach for multiple indicators multiple causes model

This study proposes a model selection approach for determining the inclusion or exclusion of a latent variable when two exogenous and two endogenous variables are provided. The models compared are the multivariate regression model without latent variables (MR model) and the multiple indicators multiple causes model (MIMIC model). The inclusion of a latent variable in the MR model yields the MIMIC model. In the proposed approach, an information criterion is used to select the best model of the two. The efficacy of the proposed approach is examined through two types of simulation studies and empirical analyses of the shadow economy and the fiscal illusion.     

The gains from short-term commitments

In a standard New-Keynesian sticky-price model, we study how the gains from commitment depend on how far ahead policymakers commit. While the traditional time-inconsistent solution assumes a once-and-for-all commitment to a plan for all future periods, we show that most of the gains can be achieved with commitment streaks lasting 3–4 periods, or 9–12 months. Moreover, we find that continuously committing just one period ahead is sufficient to capture all the gains from commitment, though this is only feasible with inflation-targeting. The adaptability of short-term commitments to changes in our models and understanding of the economy should arguably make these more credible than once-and-for-all commitments.     

转轨经济中的政府行为研究——以商洛小额信贷扶贫模式变迁为例的分析

本文对成功的商洛小额信贷扶贫模式的变迁进行了案例分析,在此基础上,有异于国家主导论、亲善市场论和市场增进论的观点,提出了转轨经济中基于约束条件的政府行为的相机决定论,给出了政府介入的方式、退出的条件以及外生的政府行为内生化的路径。     

Simplifying numerical analyses of Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equations

We introduce a simple method for computing value functions. The method is demonstrated by solving for transitional dynamics in the Uzawa and Lucas endogenous growth model. We use the value function approach to solve both the social planner??s optimization problem in the centralized economy and the representative agent??s optimization problem in the decentralized economy. The complexity of the Hamilton?CJacobi?CBellman equations is significantly reduced to an initial value problem for one ordinary differential equation. This approach allows us to find the optimal controls for the non-concave Hamiltonian in the centralized case and to identify the symmetric equilibrium in the decentralized case.     

经济转轨、跨国公司进入与国有企业改革

任何转轨国家向市场经济过渡都要面临改革与开放的问题.因此,本文在经济开放的背景下,着重突出跨国公司与转轨国家之间经济的紧密联系,建立跨国公司、转轨国家政府、国内企业三者之间的混合寡占博弈模型,并以市场开放、自由化、私有化等政策变量作为影响转轨进程的外生变量,分析开放程度和经济调控手段以及跨国企业的投资策略等对转轨国家国有企业民营化进程和转轨国家国有企业竞争力的影响.研究表明,转轨国家在经济开放的条件下,对国有企业完全民营化并非是改革的最优方案,而对国有企业的部分民营化效果反而会更好,也符合社会福利最大化的原则.而税率、技术、转移价格等也是影响转轨国家社会福利和转轨国家企业产量和竞争能力的重要因素.     

Economic growth and the employer of last resort: A simple model of flexicurity capitalism

This paper presents a model of economic growth with unemployment due to labor market rigidities. The economy consists of a firm that maximizes profits, of a government and of two types of households that maximize inter-temporal utility. One household supplies skilled labor at the first labor market, the other household supplies simple labor at the second labor market. The government in the economy raises taxes and uses its revenues to employ labor receiving unemployment benefits, to finance transfers to the household in the second labor market and to finance public spending. We analyze both the version with exogenous growth as well as an endogenous growth variant, where growth is made endogenous by assuming positive externalities of capital. The exogenous growth model is characterized by global determinacy while it is locally indeterminate. The endogenous growth model can be globally indeterminate with the high balanced growth path being locally indeterminate and the low balanced growth path being locally determinate. We also study how taxation and how the speed of the wage adjustment affect the economy.     

Endogenous Growth and Natural Resource Scarcity

Endogenous growth theory has rekindled interest in the role of innovation in determining long-term economic growth. Generally, this body of literature has ignored the contribution of natural resources to growth or the role of innovation in overcoming resource scarcities. The latter problem has been a focus of resource economics for many years, but innovation is usually modelled as exogenous rather than endogenous technological change. Recent investigations in political economy have additionally suggested that the supply of innovation may itself be constrained by resource scarcities, especially in the developing world. The following paper attempts to bridge these theoretical gaps through the formal analysis of two issues: First, a simple Romer-Stiglitz model of endogenous growth with resource scarcity and population growth is developed to determine the optimal balanced growth path for the economy. Second, the basic model is extended to allow for the possibility of resource availability constraining the supply of innovation, so that in the long run innovation net of any resource constraint is zero. However, under the latter conditions it is still possible to avoid resource exhaustion and thus achieve a constant level of per capita consumption in the long run. The paper therefore demonstrates that endogenous growth can overcome resource scarcity, but the outcome in the long run depends critically on assumptions concerning any constraints imposed by resource availability on the generation of innovation.     

Information transmission in coalitional voting games

A core allocation of a complete information economy can be characterized as one that would not be unanimously rejected in favor of another feasible alternative by any coalition. We use this test of coalitional voting in an incomplete information environment to formalize a notion of resilience. Since information transmission is implicit in the Bayesian equilibria of such voting games, this approach makes it possible to derive core concepts in which the transmission of information among members of a coalition is endogenous. Our results lend support to the credible core of Dutta and Vohra [Incomplete information, credibility and the core, Math. Soc. Sci. 50 (2005) 148-165] and the core proposed by Myerson [Virtual utility and the core for games with incomplete information, Mimeo, University of Chicago, 2005] as two that can be justified in terms of coalitional voting.     

On the determinants of trade in services: evidence from the MENA region

This article examines the determinants of aggregate flows of service trade in MENA countries using an adapted version of the gravity model and a panel data set covering the 2000 to 2009 period for 21 countries and 10 sectors. A new determinant of trade performance is introduced: the number of bound commitments undertaken by a sector in the WTO as well as the availability of those commitments by mode of supply. The results show that being a WTO member boosts trade in services. In addition, the number of bound commitments increases exports, imports and trade in services. This positive and significant effect remains robust even after controlling for several econometric issues, namely, the selection bias related to the WTO membership and the endogeneity of commitments.¹1. We are grateful to the editor Mark Taylor and two anonymous referees for providing valuable comments and suggestions. We would also like to thank the participants to the ERF 18th Annual Conference and to the 32nd Annual Meeting of the Middle East Economic Association (MEEA). This work benefited from the financial support of Economics Research Forum (ERF). It does not reflect the Forum’s opinion.