Intuitionistic Fuzzy Ordered Weighted Cosine Similarity Measure

The aim of this paper is to introduce the intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted cosine similarity (IFOWCS) measure by using the cosine similarity measure of intuitionistic fuzzy sets and the generalized ordered weighted averaging (GOWA) operator. Some desirable properties and different families of the IFOWCS measure are investigated. The prominent characteristics of the IFOWCS measure are that not only it is a generalization of some widely used similarity measure, but also it can deal with the correlation of different decision matrices or multi-dimensional arrays for intuitionistic fuzzy values. We further generalize the IFOWCS measure and obtain the intuitionistic fuzzy ordered weighted similarity (IFOWS) measure. In the end, the IFOWS measure with existing similarity measures are compared with the IFOWCS measure by an illustrative example.     

Developing Group Ordered Weighted Averaging Operator Weights for Group Decision Support

A few single decision-making methods under uncertainty (SDMUU) are available in the literature. The reason for such scarcity seems to be mainly due to too insufficient information to induce a reasonable result for effective decision support. Moreover their final outcomes on the same SDMUU problem may be different depending on which method is applied. A group decision-making method under uncertainty (GDMUU) extends a SDMUU in a sense that a group of individuals, each expressing different opinions, work together to solve a relevant problem. As in a SDMUU, we find that just a few methods are available to solve a GDMUU problem. In the paper, the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method, originally devised for use with the SDMUU problem, is considered to deal with a GDMUU problem where individuals of a group express their degree of optimism in terms of attitudinal characters. We first find the extreme points corresponding to the attitudinal character and then solve a quadratic mathematical program which minimizes a squared distance from each extreme point identified. Thus the resulting OWA operator weights for the group are located at the center of the weights-space constructed by attitudinal characters. This idea is further extended to deal with uncertain attitudinal character expressed in the form of interval in situations where it is difficult to reliably obtain a precise attitudinal character due to time pressure and a limited domain knowledge and so on.     

Generalized Ordered Weighted Reference Dependent Utility Aggregation Operators and Their Applications to Group Decision-Making

To quantify the influence of decision makers’ psychological factors on the group decision process, this paper develops a new class of aggregation operators based on reference-dependent utility functions (RUs) in multi-attribute group decision analysis. RUs include S-shaped RU and non-S-shaped RU. Each RU affords a framework where the psychological factors explicitly enter the decision problem via the basic utility function, reference point and loss aversion coefficient. Under the general framework, we derive a generalized ordered weighted S-shaped RU proportional averaging (GOSP) operator and a generalized ordered weighted non-S-shaped RU proportional averaging (GONSP) operator, respectively. The GOSP operator implies the risk attitude of the DM for relative losses is risk-seeking, while GONSP operator indicates the risk attitude in this case is risk-averse. As a special case, GONSP operator can degenerate into GOWPA operator which means that the attitude of the DM is risk-neutral. Each operator satisfies the desirable properties of general operator, i.e., monotonicity, commutativity, idempotency and boundedness. Furthermore, we consider hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) function as the basic utility function, and define an S-shaped HARA and a non-S-shaped HARA utility functions. Based on the two new RUs, we propose GOSP–HARA operator and GONSP–HARA operator. Every operator covers many existing aggregation operators. To ascertain weights of such operators, the paper builds an attribute-deviation weight model and a DMs-deviation weight model. Based on these RU operators and weight models, an approach is addressed for solving multiple attribute group decision-making problem. At last, an example is provided to show the feasible of our approach.     

Continuous Ordered Weighted Distance Measure and Its Application to Multiple Attribute Group Decision Making

We develop a new distance measure called the continuous ordered weighted distance (COWD) measure by using the continuous ordered weighted averaging (COWA) operator in the interval distance. We study some properties and different families of the COWD measure. We further generalize the COWD measure. The prominent characteristics of the COWD measure are that it is not only a generalization of some widely used distance measures and the continuous generalized OWA operator, but also it can deal with interval deviations in aggregation on interval arguments by using a controlled parameter. The desirable characteristics make the COWD measure be suitable to wide range situations, such as decision making, engineering and economics. In the end, we develop the new approach to group decision making in investment selection.     

Disagreement points in trade negotiations

This paper analyzes trade negotiations between two large countries in the framework of an alternating-offer bargaining model with endogenous interim disagreement actions. Despite of the flexibility in disagreement tariff selection, the countries would keep the status quo tariffs in disagreement periods as far as the country which benefits from keeping the status quo tariffs compensates for the other country’s foregone gains from deviating in disagreement actions. Each equilibrium outcome converges to a corresponding Nash bargaining solution whose disagreement point reflects the status quo tariff rates as well as the threat of raising the tariff to the Nash tariff rate.     

Two Types of Disagreement in Group Discussions of Japanese Undergraduates

In this study we investigated the nature of disagreement, which is a necessary component of a good discussion. We obtained 27 group discussion scenes by Japanese undergraduates that were evaluated by two ways: impression rating and ranking. As a result of factor analysis for the impression rating data, five factors were extracted: activeness, multidirection and unification of discussion, relationships of participants, development and sophistication of discussion, and sincerity of the participants, and each factor scores of each scene was simultaneously calculated. Each scene’s rank score was also calculated by relative comparisons. A significant positive correlation was found between the mean factor and the rank scores except for Factor 3 (relationships of participants). To consider the reason for the difference relating to Factor 3’s score, we scrutinized the discussion process of four scenes of the different patterns of the factor and rank scores. From the analysis of conversations, we suggested that this difference reflected ways of disagreement. By introducing a probative discourse tags for discussion (pDTD), we reasoned that the frequency of disagreement made Factor 3’s score negative and the absence of the second part of adjacency pairs made the rank score worse. The explicit speech and actions of blame such as emotional and aggressive expression, and neglect of treatment for the minor opinion made also the discussion unfair, but we think that these behaviors might erupt from the ground made by the accumulated implicit behaviors such as the absence of the second part. We finally concluded that the criticism type of disagreement increased the rank scores, and its censure type produced lower results, and the proper ways of disagreement in group discussions were discussed.     

Reforming the IMF's Weighted Voting System

This paper surveys various proposals to reform the IMF's quota determination process and voting regime. We first provide some necessary context by describing IMF decision rules, including the methods by which the Fund determines quotas according to countries’ relative positions in the world economy. This section also addresses the arbitrariness of the IMF quota determination process and how IMF decision rules hamper developing country influence within the Fund. Following this, we review several proposals designed to provide developing countries greater voice in IMF decision‐making. We conclude that the problems of developing country representation are not likely to be fixed by either reallocating quotas on the margins of the existing IMF system or by tinkering with the quota‐determination formulas. Rather, more fundamental institutional adjustments will be required.     

Equally Weighted Strategic Allocation and Balanced Funds in Brazil

This article analyzes equally weighted strategic asset allocation portfolios in Brazil between 2004 and 2016 and shows that their average returns are not always statistically greater than those of balanced funds, with significance changing in sub-periods. Fixed-income portfolios frequently outperform balanced funds, whose active management underperforms their declared benchmark portfolios. Balanced funds underperformed probably because they deviated from their investment policy. Transaction costs and other rebalancing frequencies do not change the conclusions. Robustness tests indicate that this evidence is valid out-of-the-sample. Investors can mimic balanced-fund policy and possibly do better by means of indexing according to this policy.     

有序响应变量随机系数模型及其应用

有序响应变量随机系数模型属于多层线性模型。多层线性模型主要处理具有层次结构(嵌套结构)的数据,即分层数据。在分层数据中,不仅有描述个体特征的变量(第一水平),而且有由个体组成的更高层次的变量(第二水平或第三水平)。在对微观主体行为的计量研究中,也会遇到分层数据,可以应用多层线性模型。微观主体行为的测量通常以分类数据(离散型数据)的形式表现,因此需使用离散型多层线性模型。有序响应变量随机系数模型是离散型多层线性模型的一种特殊形式,应用于响应变量为有序分类数据的情形。本文以医疗消费为例。医疗消费行为是指个体对医疗…     

An Ordered Probit Approach to Predicting the Probability of Inflation/Deflation

This paper provides an ordered probit approach that estimates the probability six months in the future of three distinct scenarios for prices: inflation, deflation, or price stability. The traditional way of forecasting inflation is to predict a single level and/or growth rate of the PCE deflator. However, this approach is not useful for identifying options or risks facing decision-makers, especially in financial markets. Also, point estimates of inflation convey a sense of overconfidence. Our approach is more practical for decision-makers who must hedge their portfolios, but it is also useful for policymakers, investors, and consumers who must attach a probability with each possible scenario of future price trends. Our results indicate that since June 2011 the probability of deflation has been persistently higher than of the other two scenarios. Thus, the recent years’ higher deflation probabilities may offer a justification for the persistence of the Federal Reserve’s highly accommodative monetary policy during 2012–14.     

激励在企业管理中的作用

在激烈的竞争条件下,组织要想生存和发展,就必须最大限度地激励组织中的全体成员,充分挖掘其内在潜力,每个管理者都应该研究激励理论,使激励理论在企业管理中发挥其重要的作用。因此,必须通过形式多样、生动活泼、富有吸引力和卓有成效的激励方法,把员工中蕴藏的各种积极性、主动性和创造性充分挖掘出来,使之转化为巨大能量。     

基于加权支持向量机的金融时间序列预测

金融时间序列数据的预测是商业领域的热点问题,对金融时间序列进行准确的预测,对金融投资决策与风险管理具有特别重要的意义。针对金融时间序列的特点,对传统支持向量机进行了改进,提出了基于加权支持向量机的金融时间序列预测方法。研究表明,与传统金融时间序列预测方法比较,基于加权支持向量机有效地提高了金融时间序列预测的精度。     

The Influence of Bundling and Caloric Knowledge on Calories Ordered and Purchase Intent

This article investigates the impact of a bundle promotion on calories ordered and purchase intentions toward bundles in a fast food context. The results of our study show that consumers order more calories and have higher purchase intentions toward bundles when a bundle promotion is advertised than when it is not, particularly for consumers with low caloric knowledge. Moreover, the results suggest that the underlying mechanism influencing these results is consumers' perceptions that a bundle is considered an appropriate option among consumers.     

Equally Weighted Portfolios of Randomly Selected Stocks and the Individual Investor

The article contrasts 500 randomly formed equally weighted portfolios (1/N) to 221 actively managed stock funds, individual stocks, and the IBrX-50 index, representing indexed stock funds, considering transaction costs. The sample are the 50 stocks in IBrX-50 index in January 2007 throughout 60 months. Investors are likely to achieve greater returns and return-to-risk ratios with a randomly formed 1/N portfolio than with a stock fund, particularly those targeting retail investors, or one of the 50 stocks also randomly drawn. These portfolios would also outperform the IBrX-50. Robustness tests with variations in size and frequency of rebalancing do not change conclusions.     

论信用制度与政府作用

社会主义市场经济体制的建立,需要有良好的社会信用环境为基础,而创造良好的社会信用环境,必须要有完善的社会信用制度作保证.在社会信用制度的建设中,政府的角色如何定位,对信用制度的建立和完善起着至关重要的作用.本文主要阐述了政府在信用制度建设中的地位和作用,分析了政府直接介入信用关系的主要表现、形成原因及其危害,提出从合理定位政府经济职能、增加有效制度供给、强化政府监管、培育信用中介机构和加快市场化进程等方面进一步完善我国的信用制度.     

基于共同加权网络的银企信贷与银行系统风险

每年都会有大量的企业从不同商业银行获得信用贷款,这些复杂的信贷关系会对银行的系统风险带来一定影响.通过将中国2007-2016年1.1万笔贷款汇总到327家商业银行总行级别,并采用二分网络映射方法,构建银行间共同加权网络,对信贷网络的结构性和传染性及其对银行系统风险的影响进行分析.结果 表明:2007-2016年,银行信贷的共同网络从簇状"核心-边缘"层级结构逐步演变为"小世界群落"特性.银企间的信贷关系越紧密(连通比越高),越有利于降低银行系统传染性风险.信贷业务类型的异质性越强(度相关性越大),银行系统越容易产生结构性风险.银企间信贷的去中介化和网络异质性不利于降低银行系统的结构性风险.网络传染性指标中的连通比、网络结构性指标中的度相关性对银行系统风险有独立的显著性影响,适宜作为银行系统风险监控的先行指标.     

LED蓝光加权辐亮度的测量不确定度评定

本文对LED蓝光危害测试中的关键数据——蓝光加权辐亮度在测量过程中产生的不确定度分量进行了分析研究,并且参考国家计量技术规范JJF 1059.1-2012《测量不确定度评定与表示》给出了评定示例。     

供应链管理的功能及实现条件

供应链管理是一种新的管理模式,企业运用供应链管理可以实现信息共享、资源整合、效率和效益最大化等功能。由此需要界定现代供应链管理的基本概念,分析供应链管理的功能,并且具体提出供应链管理的实现条件。     

关注报告在供应链中的作用

近三年来,中国已经成为全世界企业社会责任报告量增加最快的国家,这代表着国内各种利益相关方对可持续发展正高度关注。目前来看,推进企业社会责任最大的驱动力来自于企业回应社会对环境恶化及社会公平的关心,比较少针对企业合作伙伴。但在未来,企业社会责任报告可能成为提升供应链竞争力的重要工具。     

Estimating Reaction Functions in Experimental Duopoly Markets

It is well known that, in general, there are a multitude of supergame equilibria in noncooperative duopoly markets, suggesting the inability (without severe restrictions) of theory alone to determine the 'best' strategy in a repeated game context. Axelrod's prisoner's dilemma simulation tournaments have led to the view of the somewhat cooperative 'tit-fortat' approach as an attractive strategy, in particular compared to an alternative strategy of 'always defecting' (choosing at all times the single period Nash solution). In this paper, we use data obtained from two independent posted-offer duopoly experiments to investigate the actual dynamic reaction functions of participants. Neither of the above seems to be commonly employed as a pure strategy.We also provide some support for the Axelrod view of 'tit-for-tat' as the most profitable strategy.