我国商业银行信用卡品牌定位的思考

本文指出目前我国商业银行信用卡品牌定位存在重知名度、缺乏品牌意识,同质化严重、不能体现品牌差异,重广告宣传、缺乏品牌核心价值三大误区,其产生原因主要是发卡行缺乏有效的市场细分和精准的市场定位,在此基础上笔者提出了信用卡品牌定位系统,信用卡品牌定位三大步骤和信用卡品牌定位八大策略。     

基于Logistic回归模型的个人小额贷款信用风险评估及应用

构建二分类 Logistic信用风险评估模型,运用光大银行某分行样本数据,评估商业银行互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险。结果显示：客户性别、学历、年龄、收入、职业、属地等因素对个人小额贷款信用风险影响显著。其中,年龄、收入、学历等与客户信用等级呈正向关系,女性信用风险显著低于男性,持有信用卡、存贷比越低的客户其信用等级越高;一、二线城市客户的履约率普遍高于县地级市客户的履约率。鉴此,商业银行应对互联网金融个人小额贷款信用风险进行有效规避和分散。     

Bank credit risk and credit information sharing in Africa: Does credit information sharing institutions and context matter?

The study examines credit information sharing through private credit bureaus and public credit registries and their effect on bank credit risk in low and high income countries in Africa. The study covers periods between 2006 and 2012 with 548 bank observations in Africa. Employing a Prais-Winsten panel data estimation, the study established that credit information sharing whether through private credit bureaus or public credit registries reduces bank credit risk in both low and high income countries and Africa as a whole. Further analyses reveal that credit information shared through public credit registries was only negatively and significantly related to bank credit risk when all countries that share credit information through public credit registries are observed as one unit but had no significant effect in low or high income countries. On the contrary, credit information shared through private credit bureaus reported a negative and significant effect on credit risk in low and high income countries as well as all countries that shared information through private credit bureaus. This suggests that credit information shared through private credit bureaus are more robust in dealing with bank credit risk regardless of a banks’ income bracket. Hence, countries that do not share credit information should do so especially through private credit bureaus so as to help reduce bank credit risk regardless of the income bracket differences. Again, governments in Africa must enact laws that expand the coverage and scope of credit information shared so as to enhance the effectiveness of information sharing.     

Non-monetary sales promotion effects on credit cards

This study fills an important gap in the literature by exploring the effects of the attractiveness of a non-monetary promotion with premiums on credit card purchase intention and brand selection. Two experimental studies involving 386 undergraduates were done. Non-monetary sales promotions with attractive premiums have a positive influence on the credit card purchase intention, compared to non-monetary sales promotions with unattractive premiums. On brand choice, non-monetary sales promotions with attractive premiums increase the likelihood of brand choice promoted. Premiums attractiveness is an important variable in the evaluation of a promotional offer that aims to increase the intention purchase and motivate the selection of brand. This study helps managers in choosing the types of premiums that are valued by consumers in a promotion. Most of the studies explore monetary promotions, while this study contributes to literature by exploring the gap about the effects of non-monetary sales promotions on purchase intention and brand selection, especially in the bank services environment.     

对个体工商户受理信用卡业务制约因素的探析

为防止恶意套现,2009年8月央行出台了有关加强银行卡安全的文件,明确规定严格收单结算账户管理,禁止将特约商户（含固定电话支付业务的特约商户）的个人结算账户设置为信用卡收单账户。本文在对克拉玛依地区银行卡推广使用情况调查的基础上,阐释了关闭信用卡受理功能后对市民、商户造成的不利影响,分析了转开单位结算账户受理信用卡存在的成本较大、手续烦琐,且现金流动不便的问题,并提出了相关对策建议。     

Credit CARD Act of 2009: What did banks do?

The Credit CARD Act of 2009 was intended to prevent practices in the credit card industry that lawmakers viewed as deceptive and abusive. Among other changes, the Act restricted issuers’ account closure policies, eliminated certain fees, and made it more difficult for issuers to change terms on credit card plans. Critics of the Act argued that because of the long lag between approval and implementation of the law, issuing banks would be able to take preemptive actions that might disadvantage cardholders before the law could take effect. Using credit bureau data as well as individual data from a survey of U.S. consumers, we test whether banks closed consumers’ credit card accounts or otherwise restricted access to credit just before the enactment of the CARD Act. Because the period prior to the enactment of the CARD Act coincided with the financial crisis and recession, causality in this case is particularly difficult to establish. We find evidence that a higher fraction of credit card accounts were closed following the Federal Reserve Board’s adoption of its credit card rules, but not between May 2009, when the CARD Act was signed, and when most of its provisions became law in February 2010. However, we do find evidence that banks deteriorated terms of credit card plans at a higher rate during this period, especially lowered the credit limits. Among the survey respondents whose bank accounts were closed during that period, account holders were much more likely to close their own credit card accounts than to have them closed by their card issuers.     

Market Discipline of Banks: The Asset Test

As the banking business grows more complex, government supervisors of banks seem increasingly willing to share the role of policing bank risk with private investors, especially bondholders. Using spreads on nearly 500 bank bond issues between 1993 and 1998, this paper investigates the relationship between the spreads on those bonds and the full portfolio of assets held by the issuing bank. Our results show that bond spreads reflect the overall mix of banks' assets at the time of issuance, even after controlling for the standard measures of risk and performance used in earlier studies. Banks contemplating a shift into riskier activities like trading, for example, can expect to pay higher spreads as a result. Credit card and commercial and industrial lending also carry a penalty in terms of higher spreads. Overall, these results suggest that investors do price the ex ante credit and other risks implicit in banks' asset portfolios. Their vigilance should help to deter excessive or inefficient risk taking by banks.     

信用卡转换成本研究综述

早在上世纪80年代,经济学家开始研究存在转换成本的市场竞争问题.目前,有关转换成本的研究主要集中在电信、银行存款及信用卡等市场领域.研究信用卡转换成本对银行业发展、信用卡产业的发展等具有重要现实意义.本文基于转换成本一般研究基础之上,从转换成本的内涵与类型、对消费者的影响及研究方法等方面对学术界有关信用卡转换成本的研究进行了梳理和概括,以期为今后的信用卡转换成本的深入研究提供参考.     

Acquisition,affinity and rewards: Do they stay or do they go?

Customer relationship management seeks to understand how to generate profitable customers who enter into a long-term relationship with a firm. In this paper, we examine the role of modes of acquisition and retention programmes on customer lifetime in the context of a credit card issuing bank. While other papers have studied retention programmes such as loyalty card and reward card, there is no published study in the credit card context. Using a rich data set on nearly 5,000 customers observed over a three-year period, we are able to provide detailed insights about the efficacy of these strategies. We show that affinity cards customers and customers acquired through direct mail have longer lifetimes. We also find that reward card programmes generate customers with a shorter lifetime. Finally we re-examine the link between long-life customers and profitability and find that the relationship is weak, consistent with recent findings.     

Earnings and capital management and signaling: the use of loan-loss provisions by European banks

This paper investigates the relationship between loan-loss provisions (LLPs) and earnings management in the context of the capital adequacy of Euro Area (EA) banks versus non-EA credit institutions. This paper also examines whether LLPs signal managements’ expectations concerning future bank profits to investors. Additionally, this paper traces the role of bank regulations and creditor protection systems in explaining income smoothing. Evidence drawn from the 1996 to 2006 period indicates that LLPs do reflect changes in the expected quality of a bank's loan portfolio for both groups of banks, and that earnings management is an important determinant of LLPs for EA intermediaries, whereas non-EA credit institutions use LLPs to signal private information to outsiders. The paper also finds that higher protection of creditors’ rights significantly reduces the incentives to smooth earnings for EA banks. During the recent financial crisis, EA bank managers are much more concerned with their credit portfolio quality and do not use LLPs for discretionary purposes, whereas LLPs at non-EA banks are used to smooth income more than for the purposes of managing capital ratios or conveying private information about future performance to the market.     

How successful are banking sector reforms in emerging market economies? Evidence from impact of monetary policy on levels and structures of firm debt in India

Many emerging markets have undertaken significant financial sector reforms, especially in their banking sectors, that are critical for both financial development and real economic activity. In this paper, we investigate the success of banking reforms in India where significant banking reforms were implemented during the 1990s. Using the argument that well-functioning credit markets would reflect a credit channel for monetary policy at work, we test whether a change in monetary policy has a predictable impact on borrowing behaviour of several types of firms, including business group affiliated, unaffiliated private firms, state-owned firms and foreign firms. The empirical results suggest that unaffiliated private firms have the most vulnerable to monetary policy stance during tight policy regimes. We also find that during tight monetary policy regimes, bank credit of smaller firms is more sensitive to changes in the interest rate than that of large firms. In an easy money regime, monetary policy and the associated change in interest rate does not affect change in bank credit, change in total debt and the proportion of bank credit in total debt for any of the firms. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.     

分析师意见分歧与银行信贷决策——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

作为金融市场重要信息中介,分析师通过发布专业意见向市场传递私有信息,但不同分析师发布的意见可能存在严重分歧。本文从银行信贷决策角度研究了分析师意见分歧的经济后果,结果表明,严重的分析师意见分歧会降低银行信贷规模,提高信贷成本,并缩短信贷期限;进一步研究发现,分析师意见分歧对银行信贷决策的影响在不同内部控制水平、产品市场竞争和媒体报道程度的企业之间存在显著差异,并且是通过缓解信息不对称这一作用机制实现的。本文结论不仅拓展了理论界和实务界对分析师作用的认识,而且为完善银行信贷决策提供了新思路。     

经济适用住房购买政策与贷款政策冲突的原因及对策——以上海市徐汇区经济适用住房试点为例

上海安居房工程试点工作中,出现了一类陷于尴尬处境的人群,他们人均收入远低于2300元,获得了住房保障中心购买经济适用住房资格,却得不到银行贷款资格,产生这种现象的实质是政府制定的购房政策与银行贷款政策的冲突所致。政府在正式实施安居房工程时,应该同步推出廉租住房、经济适用住房,以申请人还款能力作为出发点,按还款能力大小确定经济适用住房或廉租住房,视目标群体还款能力的变化,调整经济适用住房或廉租住房的建造安排比例,以此避免购房政策、贷款政策的冲突,让中低收入者真正实现＂居者有其屋＂的愿望。     

English commercial bank liquidity, 1860-1913

This article presents new half-yearly time series for the asset ratios of commercial banks in England and Wales, 1860-1913. The series reveal new evidence on the nature of the banks' business and are, therefore, relevant to the debate on the role of banks in British economic development. The new estimates are used to examine trends and short-term changes in bank liquidity. Analysis is concerned with the changing stability of bank asset structure and with substitutability across different asset ratios. The main finding is of a sharp, long-term increase in liquidity and a concomitant decline in bank credit to the non-bank, private sector. The article also highlights the significance of short-term shocks to the trend increase in bank liquidity. The new findings are supportive of the argument that, over time, English banks became less involved with the non-bank private sector. In general, the results confirm that the English and Welsh bank asset structure became more liquid over time. However, no detailed breakdown of bank loans to the non-bank, private sector (for example, between business loans and personal loans), is available for this period. Moreover, the current study offers no evidence as to the trend in financial provision to the business sector from institutions other than the commercial banks. Nevertheless, the results are clear in showing a strong upward trend in commercial bank liquidity and a relative decline in private sector credit provision by the commercial banks.     

浅析农户个人信贷业务拓展中的障碍和对策建议

中国经济长期以来呈现出“重城轻乡”的二元制结构特点,在这种经济结构背景下的城乡个人信贷政策却没有实行差别化,这是造成我国农村个人信贷业务难以推进的主要障碍。目前银行在针对个人办理贷款时都有一些硬性条件,包括面临风险时贷款利率会适当上浮,个人贷款期限以年为单位,要求借款人一定时间内支出与收入比不得超过50％,这些政策和限制性条件对农户贷款并不适用,在为农户办理贷款时应适用新的信贷政策,使其更贴近农户的实际信贷需求。     

Predicting credit card delinquencies: An application of deep neural networks

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it develops a prediction system to help the credit card issuer model the credit card delinquency risk. Second, it seeks to explore the potential of deep learning (also called a deep neural network), an emerging artificial intelligence technology, in the credit risk domain. With real-life credit card data linked to 711,397 credit card holders from a large bank in Brazil, this study develops a deep neural network to evaluate the risk of credit card delinquency based on the client's personal characteristics and the spending behaviours. Compared with machine-learning algorithms of logistic regression, naive Bayes, traditional artificial neural networks, and decision trees, deep neural networks have a better overall predictive performance with the highest F scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The successful application of deep learning implies that artificial intelligence has great potential to support and automate credit risk assessment for financial institutions and credit bureaus.     

A model of unconventional monetary policy

We develop a quantitative monetary DSGE model with financial intermediaries that face endogenously determined balance sheet constraints. We then use the model to evaluate the effects of the central bank using unconventional monetary policy to combat a simulated financial crisis. We interpret unconventional monetary policy as expanding central bank credit intermediation to offset a disruption of private financial intermediation. Within our framework the central bank is less efficient than private intermediaries at making loans but it has the advantage of being able to elastically obtain funds by issuing riskless government debt. Unlike private intermediaries, it is not balance sheet constrained. During a crisis, the balance sheet constraints on private intermediaries tighten, raising the net benefits from central bank intermediation. These benefits may be substantial even if the zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate is not binding. In the event this constraint is binding, though, these net benefits may be significantly enhanced.     

Interventions in Markets with Adverse Selection: Implications for Discount Window Stigma

I study the implications for central bank discount window stigma of a workhorse model of adverse selection in financial markets. In the model, firms (banks) need to borrow to finance a productive project. There is limited liability and firms have private information about their ability to repay their debts, which gives rise to the possibility of adverse selection. The central bank can ameliorate the impact of adverse selection by lending to firms. Discount window borrowing is observable and it may be taken as a signal of firms' credit worthiness. Under some conditions, firms borrowing from the discount window may pay higher interest rates to borrow in the market, a phenomenon often associated with the presence of stigma. I discuss these and other outcomes in detail and what they suggest about the relevance of stigma as an empirical phenomenon.     

信用卡转换成本研究综述

早在上世纪80年代,经济学家开始研究存在转换成本的市场竞争问题。目前,有关转换成本的研究主要集中在电信、银行存款及信用卡等市场领域。研究信用卡转换成本对银行业发展、信用卡产业的发展等具有重要现实意义。本文基于转换成本一般研究基础之上,从转换成本的内涵与类型、对消费者的影响及研究方法等方面对学术界有关信用卡转换成本的研究进行了梳理和概括,以期为今后的信用卡转换成本的深入研究提供参考。     

Internet,consumer spending,and credit card balance: Evidence from US consumers

Utilizing the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances data, the present study aims to examine the role of the Internet in carrying a credit card balance among US households. The central question of this study is whether or not households with Internet access have more favorable attitudes toward incurring more credit card balance. This study further investigates whether education, income, gender, age, race, etc., make any differences in carrying credit card debt when households have access to the Internet. Our results with the Tobit model show that having access to the Internet increases the probability of carrying a positive credit card balance by 4% to 5% compared to those who do not have access to the Internet. This result does not apply to older Americans. Our results further indicate that education decreases the probability of carrying a positive credit balance for households that have access to the Internet, while income and liquid assets may have little positive effect on that probability. The results suggest that Internet leads to more debt, but education could alleviate that debt.