Optimal Proportional Reinsurance Policies in a Dynamic Setting

We consider dynamic proportional reinsurance strategies and derive the optimal strategies in a diffusion setup and a classical risk model. Optimal is meant in the sense of minimizing the ruin probability. Two basic examples are discussed.     

从中兴通讯看我国"走出去"企业税收政策

本文在对中兴通讯"走出去"情况进行调研的基础上,对我国境外投资税收问题进行了研究,提出了完善现行对外投资税收政策、税收协定和征管措施等方面的建议。     

Risk in Dynamic Arbitrage: The Price Effects of Convergence Trading

I develop an equilibrium model of convergence trading and its impact on asset prices. Arbitrageurs optimally decide how to allocate their limited capital over time. Their activity reduces price discrepancies, but their activity also generates losses with positive probability, even if the trading opportunity is fundamentally riskless. Moreover, prices of identical assets can diverge even if the constraints faced by arbitrageurs are not binding. Occasionally, total losses are large, making arbitrageurs' returns negatively skewed, consistent with the empirical evidence. The model also predicts comovement of arbitrageurs' expected returns and market liquidity.     

Group Welfare and the Formation of a Common Labor Market: Some Global Results

Consider a collection of isolated or autarkic regions. The original residents or natives of each region are by assumption a group with a welfare function defined over group members' consumption. Now suppose the regions form a common labor market and a federal government, and one type from each group can freely migrate to other regions. Under what circumstances is this change even potentially beneficial to all groups? We derive a necessary and sufficient condition that depends only on the exogenous parameters of our model. Earlier treatments of these issues focus on relationships among endogenous variables. Our condition underlies those relationships. We also show that there is nothing pathological about the conditions under which federalism must make some or all groups worse off. When it is possible to make all groups better off, we show that the change can be supported by Wildasin's (1991) corrected Nash equilibrium in redistributive transfers.     

The Welfare Returns to Finer Targeting: The Case of The Progresa Program in Mexico

It is common in developing countries to attempt finer targeting of the benefits from social safety net programs through combining different targeting methods. We evaluate the returns to finer targeting in the context of the PROGRESA program in Mexico. This program is a prominent program in the literature reflecting the fact that it has been widely evaluated, is perceived to be well targeted, and has been used as a prototype for many other programs in the region and beyond. We also identify the relative incremental contribution of each targeting method to the overall targeting performance of the program. We find that geographic targeting dominates demographic targeting (based on linking transfer levels to demographic composition), which in turn dominates household proxy-means targeting. However, the contribution of proxy-means targeting increases substantially as the program expands into less marginal localities. Adjusting for incomplete take-up increases the targeting performance of the program only slightly. JEL Code: D3, H50, O15 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and should not be attributed to the International Monetory Fund, its Executive Board, or its management.     

Effects of Noise on Optimal Exercise Decisions: The Case of Risky Debt Secured by Renewable Lease Income

This paper considers the valuation and default exercise policy of risky coupon debt that is secured by a lease-encumbered noisy real asset. For parameter values used in our analysis, asset value noise is shown to reduce the value of waiting to default. Moreover, the borrower is shown to delay default exercise until the noisy signal of asset value is far into-the-money. This latter finding provides an information-based explanation for the apparent under-exercise of the mortgage default option that has been observed in the literature. An implication of this finding is that, if the claimholder recognizes that noise exists, but the empiricist—who is trying to compare observed exercise policy with that predicted by a noiseless model of asset prices—does not, a “sub-optimal” exercise policy may be inferred when in fact the policy is rational given the information available. This explanation is consistent with evidence from mortgage default studies as to why the observed default exercise boundary is lower than that predicted by standard theoretical option-based models.     

Optimal Estimation of the Risk Premium for the Long Run and Asset Allocation: A Case of Compounded Estimation Risk

It is well known that an unbiased forecast of the terminal valueof a portfolio requires compounding at the arithmetic mean returnover the investment horizon. However, the maximum-likelihoodpractice, common with academics, of compounding at the estimatorof mean return results in upward biased and highly inefficientestimates of long-term expected returns. We derive analyticallyboth an unbiased and a small-sample efficient estimator of long-termexpected returns for a given sample size and horizon. Both estimatorsentail penalties that reduce the annual compounding rate asthe investment horizon increases. The unbiased estimator, whichis far lower than the compounded arithmetic average, is stillvery inefficient, often more so than a simple geometric estimatorknown to practitioners. Our small-sample efficient estimatoris even lower. These results compound the sobering evidencein recent work that the equity risk premium is lower than suggestedby post-1926 data. Our methodology and results are robust toextensions such as predictable returns. We also confirm analyticallythat parameter uncertainty, properly incorporated, producesoptimal asset allocations, in stark contrast to conventionalwisdom. Longer investment horizons require lower, not higher,allocations to risky assets.     

积极福利视角下劳动就业促进政策研究——以台湾地区少数民族事业发展为例

积极福利的理念自提出以来,对全球社会福利政策发展的影响甚大。以台湾地区少数民族作为研究案例,从积极福利的研究视角分析相关的就业促进政策,发现近年来台湾地区原住民就业政策形态已经不再是单纯的消极救济性质,政府部门无论是在就业的信息提供、能力培养、活动办理、岗位开拓等各方面,相关促进工作确实都朝着积极福利的方向发展。     

Asset Valuation and Performance Measurement in a Dynamic Agency Setting

This paper examines the choice of asset valuation rules from a managerial control perspective. A manager creates value for a firm through his effort choices. To support its operating activities, the firm also engages in financing activities such as credit sales to its customers. Since such financing activities merely change the pattern of cash flows across periods, an optimal compensation scheme must shield the manager from the risk associated with the financing activities. We show that residual income combined with fair value accounting for receivables eliminates this risk and provides an optimal performance measure. In contrast, compensation schemes based only on realized cash flows can be optimal only under exceptional circumstances. We also consider a setting in which there is sufficiently disaggregated information about periodic cash flows so as to eliminate not only the risk associated with financing activities but also the risk associated with customer defaults. The principal then wants to depart from fair value accounting.     

Welfare Effects of Banning Genetic Information in the Life Insurance Market: The Case of BRCA1/2 Genes

We investigate whether regulations that ban insurance companies from access to individuals' genetic tests are likely to lead to substantial adverse selection costs for the specific example of the so‐called breast cancer (BRCA1/2) genes. Using a data set including economic, demographic, and relevant family background information to simulate the market for 10‐year term life insurance, we find generally only modest adverse selection costs associated with such a regulatory ban. However, for family background groups that are at high risk for carrying one of these genes, the efficiency cost of adverse selection may be significant should the test become widely adopted.     

An Investigation of Global and Regional Integration of ASEAN Economic Community Stock Market: Dynamic Risk Decomposition Approach

This article investigates the dynamic pattern of stock market relations between the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) and two major stock markets: China and the United States. A GARCH risk decomposition model is developed to reflect the time-varying market integration. The primary findings of this study are as follows. First, the AEC is more integrated with the regional stock market than with the global stock market. Second, the movement in the AEC stock market is mainly driven by domestic economic situations. Third, external shocks only affect the level of integration of the AEC temporarily. Finally, international investors are able to significantly reduce unsystematic risk by adding an AEC market portfolio into their existing portfolios.     

The Role of Soft Information in a Dynamic Contract Setting: Evidence from the Home Equity Credit Market

Credit underwriting is a dynamic process involving multiple interactions between borrower and lender. During this process, lenders have the opportunity to obtain hard and soft information from the borrower. We analyze more than 108,000 home equity loans and lines‐of‐credit applications to study the role of soft and hard information during underwriting. Our data set allows us to distinguish lender actions that are based strictly on hard information from decisions that involve the collection of soft information. Our analysis confirms the importance of soft information and suggests that its use can be effective in reducing overall portfolio credit losses ex post.     

Employment and Welfare Effects of a Two-Tier Unemployment Compensation System

In Germany, as in many OECD countries, such as the United Kingdom, unemployment compensation consists of unemployment insurance and unemployment assistance. Unemployment assistance is provided subsequent to the expiration of entitlement to unemployment insurance and is lower. The effects of this two-tier unemployment compensation system are studied in a general equilibrium job search model with endogenous distributions of income, wealth, and employment which is calibrated with regard to the characteristics of the German economy. Our results are as follows: (i) employment is a decreasing function of both unemployment insurance and unemployment assistance. (ii) Aggregate savings are (not) a monotone decreasing function of unemployment assistance (unemployment insurance) payments. (iii) Optimal unemployment compensation payments are found to be a decreasing function over time.     

The Capital Tax and Welfare Effects from Asymmetric Information on Equity Markets

This paper explores the implications of informational asymmetries between domestic and foreign investors for optimal capital tax rates and welfare. It adopts a model in which asymmetric information implies a home bias in equity. The paper finds that asymmetric information may raise capital tax rates by reducing the marginal cost of taxation. Furthermore, it shows that investors may gain from informational asymmetries. Although asymmetric information increases the uncertainty as perceived by investors, it may also increase tax rates and allow for a higher consumption of public goods. This reflects that asymmetric information may reduce the distortionary effects of competition among governments.     

Multimarket Analysis of Agricultural Price Policies in an Operational Context: The Case of Cyprus

This article presents a method of analysis of agricultural pricepolicies. Its basic features are (1) the incorporation of importantsupply and demand substitution possibilities; (2) a flexiblestructure which can account for institutional features of theagricultural sector and its relationships with the rest of theeconomy; and (3) a focused, policy-oriented approach. An applicationto Cyprus is presented which highlights the differences betweenthis approach and analyses of single markets. The method incorporatessupporting software on personal computers, with the longer-termobjective of developing this type of approach as a standardtool in pricing policy analysis.     

证券公司风险管控工具有效性及动态决策研究——以债券自营业务流动性管理为例

2016年第4季度,我国债券市场剧烈下跌,流动性风险凸显。证券公司债券自营业务风险管控工具疑似失灵。证券公司如何在极短时间内,进行动态决策,采取切实有效行动,已成为一个重要课题。通过理论推导,剖析典型案例,突破常规认知逻辑,得出具有实践指导意义的结论。     

土地政策在宏观政策中的作用效果分析

在对我国土地政策研究中,注重土地政策本身的实施过程和困难,而对土地政策与宏观经济之间关系的研究较少.本文在IS-LM模型的基础上引入土地要索,建立了ILS-LM曲线来分析土地政策对经济总量带来的影响,提出了土地政策乘数的概念,并研究了土地政策与财政政策、货币政策之间的火系,对我国目前的土地政策取向提出了建议.     

各国贸易政策调整及其对全球供应链的影响

二十国集团新兴经济体的最终产品关税税率通常高于二十国集团的高收入经济体,同时二十国集团各经济体中间投入品和资本品的关税税率均低于最终产品,但遭遇临时贸易壁垒的中间投入品比重高于最终产品。越来越多的中间投入品进口遭遇到了临时性贸易壁垒,可能造成各国福利损失扩大。     

中国会计准则制定中的利益协调:来自世纪星源案例的证据

本文通过对准则制定的理论分析 ,结合我国转型经济的特殊体制背景 ,以世纪星源的非货币性交易为例 ,对我国的会计准则制定进行了一项案例研究。研究结果发现 ,会计准则的制定不仅是会计层面的技术问题 ,还是关乎利益协调的政治问题 ,这对于理解和推动我国当前会计改革具有重大的现实意义。     

建立我国基于风险控制的企业年金监管体系

在我国企业年金制度启动后,为防范企业年金基金管理风险,必须建立一套行之有效的监管体系和监管方法。本文提出建立我国基于风险控制的企业年金监管体系,该体系是基于风险的金融监管理论在企业年金领域的应用和实践。建立基于风险的企业年金监管体系主要包括4个方面的内容:即确定企业年金的监管架构及适合我国国情的监管模式;建立统一的风险监管平台,开发统一的企业年金风险监管系统,统一企业年金监管风险管理工具和风险指标,形成支持协同监管的技术系统平台;完善规章制度体系,奠定监管基础;切实严格执行管理机构的准入制度,形成优胜劣汰良好机制。