市场比较法在房屋拆迁估价中运用与体会

如何运用现有方法高效率地进行城市房屋拆迁估价工作，是广大房地产估价人员一直探索的课题。以市场比较法为例，分析了拆迁估价的特点，指出在房屋拆迁估价中应灵活运用市场比较法。总结了典型房屋法的操作过程及运用的体会，认为只有积极探索，不断创新估价方法及其应用，才能更好地开展房地产估价工作。     

House Search Duration in Hot and Cold Residential Markets

This study analyzes the determinants of house search duration of consumption‐driven buyers and individual investors in different housing market environments. We use data from surveys of recent house‐buyers in “hot” and “cold” housing markets in the 2000s housing bubble in California characterized by rising and declining residential house prices, respectively. The average house price and the surveyed geographical area are the same for both periods. Expected house ownership horizon is shown to be an important determinant of the realized search duration in addition to commonly considered housing and buyer characteristics. We find a statistically significant positive effect of it on the time until purchase in both housing price environments for consumption‐driven buyers. We also find that consumption‐driven house purchases were highly pronounced in coastal areas in the hot market and inland areas in the cold market. In contrast, long‐horizon investment activity leads that of consumption activity in those areas. Short‐horizon investors, on the other hand, concentrated their house search activity in inland areas in both housing market environments.     

Housing Regulation,Externalities and Residential Property Prices

This article examines the effects of quantity restrictions on residential property prices in the presence of neighborhood externalities. A Brigham Young University policy limiting students’ location choices provides a natural experiment for studying the externality and quantity restriction effects on property values. A flexible hedonic model is used to control for nonstudent population spatial sorting by type. The estimates show significant positive quantity restriction and student agglomeration effects on student housing prices. There are also significant differences in the negative student externality across nonstudent neighborhoods, with the quantity restriction reinforcing (offsetting) the student price premium (discount) at the boundary.     

List Prices,Sale Prices and Marketing Time: An Application to U.S. Housing Markets

Many goods are marketed after first stating a list price, with the expectation that the eventual sales price will differ. In this article, we first present a simple model of search behavior that includes the seller setting a list price. Holding constant the mean of the buyers’ distribution of potential offers for a good, we assume that the greater the list price, the slower the arrival rate of offers but the greater is the maximal offer. This trade‐off determines the optimal list price, which is set simultaneously with the seller's reservation price. Comparative statics are derived through a set of numerical sensitivity tests, where we show that the greater the variance of the distribution of buyers’ potential offers, the greater is the ratio of the list price to expected sales price. Thus, sellers of atypical goods will tend to set a relatively high list price compared with standard goods. We test this hypothesis using data from the Columbus, Ohio, housing market and find substantial support. We also find empirical support for another hypothesis of the model: atypical dwellings take longer to sell.     

Real Estate Brokers and the Market for Residential Housing

This study explores the role of the real estate broker in the housing market. A model of the demand for broker services by both sellers and buyers is developed and conditional logit estimates are presented. Evidence relating to the effects of the brokerage industry on housing market transactions also is presented. Brokers do not seem to affect the prices of the houses they sell. But they do influence the level of housing consumption by buyers.     

Uses and Abuses of Residential Building Permits in Forecasting Private Housing Starts

This paper examines the commonly held view that the Census Bureau's monthly series for residential building permits issued is a leading indicator of the series for private housing starts. A close study of the residential building permits and housing starts series shows that on a quarterly basis the series are coincident, with cyclical peaks and troughts in the seasonally adjusted data occurring in the same period. On the monthly basis for the period 1960 through 1976, the peaks and troughs in the building permits series have usually followed those in the housing starts series. Also, evidence presented in the paper shows that monthly changes in the residential building permits series are not highly correlated with changes in the housing starts series one to five months in the future. Finally, the analysis suggests that changes in the backlog of unused residential building permits are not indicative of future changes in the rate of housing starts. The major implication of these results is that permits data offer little or no information about future month-to-month changes in the rate of housing starts. However, because the building permits series is less irregular than the housing starts series and the cyclical movements of the series are basically the same, permits data can be used to identify irregular monthly movements in the starts series.     

Major Developments in Residential Mortgage and Housing Markets Since the Hunt Commission

A number of important changes have been made to the mortgage finance system since the Hunt Commission filed its report, and the economic environment has been altered substantially. This paper examines shifts in the relative importance of public and private institutions in the residential mortgage markets during the past decade, within the context of Hunt Commission recommendations. Changes in the cyclical sensitivity of mortgage and housing activity, and the implications of rapid inflation for the growth of these markets, also are considered.     

High Leverage and Willingness to Pay: Evidence from the Residential Housing Market

I document a strong correlation between paying the full listing price on homes and borrowing 100% loan‐to‐value. Homebuyers who do both overpay by 2.8% to 3.9% ($4,800 to $6,700) and are 22.7% more likely to have their properties foreclosed within one year. The correlation is not mechanical: there is a discontinuity in the average leverage around the full listing price. The correlation is stronger in areas with a high fraction of financially constrained and unsophisticated residents, and in areas of high past price growth (potentially indicative of buyer optimism).     

Nonparametric Estimation of Dynamic Hedonic Price Models and the Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices

Parametric specifications for hedonic price equations are estimated using a data set from Alameda and San Francisco Counties and are compared to estimates using a nonparametric technique called locally weighted regression, LWR. LWR permits flexible estimation of the hedonic's curvature at median attributes and is less sensitive than standard regression techniques to the influence of unusual observations. The technique also avoids imposing a single functional form across time and municipalities. The LWR estimates of municipality-specific hedonics are then used to obtain implicit prices for housing attributes and to derive municipality-specific price indices. The results of extensive diagnostic checks of our technique are also reported.     

Government Policies,Residential Mortgage Defaults and the Boom and Bust Cycle of Housing Prices

We develop a micro‐based macromodel for residential home prices in an economy where defaults on residential mortgages negatively affect housing prices. Our model enables us to study the impact of subprime defaults on prime borrowers and the impact of various government policies on the housing market boom and bust cycle. In this regard, our key conclusions are that (i) there is a contagion effect from subprime defaults to prime defaults due to the negative impact of subprime defaults and (ii) monetary policy is the most effective tool for decreasing mortgage defaults and increasing aggregate home prices in contrast to alternative government fiscal policies designed to loosen mortgage credit.     

An Empirical Examination of the Stability of Housing Price Equations Over Time

This study investigates the extent to which the coefficients of housing price equations are stable over time. Using annual data from 1959 to 1979 for a large neighbourhood in Vancouver, British Columbia, a series of twenty-four housing price equations is estimated. The estimated coefficients exhibit substantial instability over the period. Further, prediction errors are generally minimized for a given year when the coefficients estimated for that year are used to predict. The results strongly suggest that such equations should be recalibrated each year.     

The Effect of Subsidized Housing on Values of Adjacent Housing

This is a case study of the effect of subsidized housing on the value of adjacent non-subsidized housing. Four townhouse clusters in Fairfax County, Virginia, were selected for study because of the high degree of homogeneity between clusters. The clusters are all in the same community but vary in distance from subsidized housing. Sale prices were analyzed using a regression model which included distance from subsidized housing as an independent variable. Based on the results of the regression analysis, the authors conclude that the subsidized housing had a negative impact on the values of adjacent properties.     

中国传统品牌在整合营销时代的发展契机

中国传统品牌一直是中华民族传统文化的骄傲,随着品牌时代的来临,大众传播成为主流。而中国传统品牌也遭受到了前所未有的冲击,陷入了低谷。     

Economic Depreciation of Residential Real Estate: Microlevel Space and Time Analysis

Three elements in the study of real estate depreciation that warrant further consideration are uncovered: the spatial variation of depreciation on a micro scale, the variability of depreciation within a single market across time and the recognition of land value as an influence in modeling real property prices. Taken together, these three dimensions provide an opportunity to further expand the understanding of residential economic depreciation while enhancing the predictive power of real estate market models. The analytical results, utilizing a land-value-adjusted hedonic model, indicate that both the intramarket location and the year in which the property sold have significant impacts on the observed rate of economic depreciation. Such information is vitally important to policymakers and others interested in accurate modeling of real estate markets.     

Estimates of the Effect of School Desegregation Plans on Housing Values Over Time

This study investigates the impact that school desegregation can have on the market values of affected residential properties. It improves upon previous studies in that it is able to estimate not only the "racial enrollment" effect but also "other" desegregation-related effects correlated with white perceptions of school quality, etc. Through the use of a controlled longitudinal and cross-sectional data set of property sales and a ridge-regression methodology, it is able to estimate these effects over time and separate them from amenity-related effects. Results are significant in that they predict substantial desegregation-related effects on house values over time, averaging 11.4% of property value, which correlate with school desegregation court rulings and other events. Furthermore, over one-third of the magnitude of this discount is related to desegregation factors other than actual racial enrollment patterns in the schools.     

The Individual Housing Account

This paper summarizes the available information about the proposed Individual Housing Account (IHA), a tax-exempt savings account designed to facilitate the accumulation of the downpayment on a home for would-be first-time homebuyers. We review both the limited body of U.S. research and data on a similar Canadian program which has been in existence since 1974. We find little evidence to suggest that the IHA would stimulate homeownership or housing construction to any noticeable extent. It would enable potential buyers to save enough for a downpayment more rapidly than they now can, but this would increase homeownership only during the start-up period for the program, not in the long run. We also estimate the foregone tax revenues from the program to be in the neighborhood of $2 to $3 billion annually, once the program has reached maturity.     

The Affordability of Adequate Housing

A "quality-based" measure of housing affordability problems employing the cost of housing just meeting adequacy standards is proposed as an improvement over the conventional "high" rent-to-income criterion. Based on Annual Housing Survey data, affordability difficulties grew between 1975 and 1983 by either measure. The conventional measure, however, overestimated the extent of quality-based affordability difficulty for renters by 20% in 1975 and 24% in 1983 based upon Section 8 housing quality standards. In addition, 35% of rental households with an affordability problem by the conventional measure did not have an affordability problem by the quality-based measure, while 19 to 23% of rental households found to have an affordability problem by the quality-based measure were not so classified using the conventional measure.     

The Resale Housing Market

This paper describes and analyzes the structure and operation of the market for existing single-family homes. The paper develops aggregative models of sales and renovation activity based on the adjustment choice decisions of households to alter their housing consumption by moving or by undertaking renovations. The models demonstrate that housing resales and renovation expenditures occur when the present value of the gains associated with a housing adjustment exceeds the costs of the transaction. The choice of the adjustment mode is shown to be significantly influenced by the relative transactions costs of moving versus renovating.