The Differential Persistence of Accruals and Cash Flows for Future Operating Income versus Future Profitability

Prior research provides evidence that a higher proportion of accrued relative to cash earnings is associated with lower earnings performance in the subsequent fiscal year. The result has been widely interpreted as indicative of higher levels of operating accruals relative to cash flows foreshadowing a subsequent earnings reversal, and thus signaling earnings management. We note, however, that earnings performance in prior studies is typically defined as one-year-ahead operating income divided by one-year-ahead invested capital, or a measure of profitability. We find that accruals are more highly associated than cash flows with invested capital in the denominator of the profitability measure. In contrast, accruals and cash flows have no differential relation to one-year-ahead operating income. The evidence is not consistent with accruals having a reversal effect on earnings. This suggests that the lower persistence of accruals versus cash flows may not be due to earnings management but may rather be due to the effect of growth on future profitability.     

国外财务报告目的资产重估研究综述

企业新会计准则中引入公允价值计价，使得基于财务报告目的资产重估这一问题变得逐渐重要。本文通过对国外财务报告目的资产重估这一问题制度背景的分析，从资产重估的动因和价值相关性进行研究综述，试图为我国新企业会计准则的运用提供新的研究思路。     

The Profitability and Pricing of Major Customers

We examine the profitability and valuation of retail firms identified by suppliers as major customers, using major customer relationships to proxy for unrecorded organizational-capital intangibles. Major customers have higher operating profitability and profitability persistence, with the sources of the higher profitability consistent with purported advantages of supply chain arrangements. The pricing of major customers is consistent with the market recognizing the level and over-time properties of operating profitability. Together, these results suggest that investors understand the profitability effects of unrecorded organizational intangible assets and that financial statement analysis can be used to further examine the valuation effects of such intangibles.     

不良资产投资利润产生的机理分析

有关投资中国不良资产获利颇丰的消息经常见诸报端,金融资产管理公司由此面临着是否尽责和是否导致国有资产流失的质疑。本文在深刻分析不良资产投资利润产生机理的基础上,提出应理性看待不良资产损失和投资利润,为资产管理公司搭建公平、完善的处置环境,以切实提高不良资产的处置效益。     

从金融外部性视角分析不良资产与金融脆弱性

不良资产一直是困扰我国银行业健康发展的重要问题,其负面影响放大了金融脆弱性的风险。大量的不良资产损害了商业银行的安全性原则,同时降低了商业银行资产的收益性,严重影响中国银行业的竞争力。在这个意义上,不良资产具有巨大的金融负外部性。当前,一方面要采取措施防止不良资产反弹,包括引入经济资本管理理念,加强行业风险研究,推行全面风险管理,加快现有不良资产的处置等;另一方面,为了消除其金融负外部性的影响,有必要通过建立明晰的银行业产权制度,增加金融激励,引进民营银行等手段促使外部性内部化,保障中国银行业的健康发展。     

从金融外部性视角分析不良资产与金融脆弱性

不良资产一直是困扰我国银行业健康发展的重要问题，其负面影响放大了金融脆弱性的风险。大量的不良资产损害了商业银行的安全性原则，同时降低了商业银行资产的收益性，严重影响中国银行业的竞争力。在这个意义上，不良资产具有巨大的金融负外部性。当前，一方面要采取措施防止不良资产反弹，包括引入经济资本管理理念，加强行业风险研究，推行全面风险管理，加快现有不良资产的处置等；另一方面，为了消除其金融负外部性的影响，有必要通过建立明晰的银行业产权制度，增加金融激励，引进民营银行等手段促使外部性内部化，保障中国银行业的健康发展。     

从贸易调整渠道到金融调整渠道——国际金融外部调整理论的新发展

传统的开放宏观经济学认为一国的外部财富是贸易调整的结果,但是随着各国持有外部资产负债总量的迅速攀升,汇率和资产价格波动所产生的估值效应对外部财富的作用越来越显著。近年来,众多学者基于估值效应发展了一个新的外部调整渠道——金融调整渠道,极大地改变了人们对一国外部失衡调整的理解和认识。本文试图系统地评述这一外部调整机制的最新进展,以期为所有关注中国国际收支以及全球失衡问题的国内外学者提供新的研究视角和方法。     

财务报表分析在企业信用评价中的运用

企业信用评价是商业银行贷款风险管理的重要一环。本文针对企业信用评价体系的主要内容．提出了运用财务报袁分析企业信用的具体思路,并在此基础上,强调了运用财务报表分析时应注意的问题。     

Financial Statement Analysis of Leverage and How It Informs About Profitability and Price-to-Book Ratios

This paper presents a financial statement analysis that distinguishes leverage that arises in financing activities from leverage that arises in operations. The analysis yields two leveraging equations, one for borrowing to finance operations and one for borrowing in the course of operations. These leveraging equations describe how the two types of leverage affect book rates of return on equity. An empirical analysis shows that the financial statement analysis explains cross-sectional differences in current and future rates of return as well as price-to-book ratios, which are based on expected rates of return on equity. The paper therefore concludes that balance sheet line items for operating liabilities are priced differently than those dealing with financing liabilities. Accordingly, financial statement analysis that distinguishes the two types of liabilities informs on future profitability and aids in the evaluation of appropriate price-to-book ratios.     

时务报告欺诈的行业特征及其对审计的意义

本文收集了我国自证券市场成立以来至2004年末的104个财务报告欺诈样本，并进行了统计分析。统计结果显示：农、林、牧、渔业和综合类是财务报告欺诈的两个高发行业；多元化经营更可能导致欺诈的发生；两个欺诈高发行业样本公司采用的欺诈方法明显有别于其他行业，更可能进行资产高估欺诈。本文最后根据研究结论向注册会计师提出了财务报告欺诈审计的几点具体建议。     

The Use of a Statement of Changes in Financial Position to Interpret Financial Data: An Empirical Investigation

This study provides empirical evidence on the use of a statement of changes in financial position by financial analysts to interpret and make judgments on information contained in annual reports. Analysts were required to answer five questions developed from claims made in a professional accounting standard about the purpose of the statement of changes in financial position. The results indicate that the statement of changes in financial position does not generally enhance financial analysis.     

Asset Revaluations in the Accounts of UK National Health Service Trusts

This paper reports the results of an investigation into the impact of the revaluation of fixed assets on the reported results of NHS ambulance services. It recalculates the accounting rate of return of individual trusts after removing revaluation adjustments and examines the published responses of trusts. The numerical analysis demonstrates that, in general, revaluation has depressed the stated rate of return in an inconsistent manner. Failure to meet the required rate of return may cause a trust to be subjected to additional monitoring and management reorganisation while the trusts respond by explaining deviations in the accounting return measure by referring to revaluations and other technical adjustments. Management decisions made in response to these accounting measures may be sub-optimal in delivering health care but appropriate in achieving the desired accounting outcome.     

On the Market Reaction to Revenue and Earnings Surprises

Abstract:  This study extends Ertimur et al. (2003) and Jegadeesh and Livnat (2006a) by providing a contextual framework for the information content of revenue and earnings surprises. I find that the influence of earnings surprises (revenue surprises) on stock returns is lower (higher) in R&D intensive companies. Also, market reaction to earnings surprises is lower in the fourth quarter, and to revenue surprises it is higher in industries with oligopolistic competition. A comprehensive analysis indicates that, in contrast to previous studies for the full sample, in several contexts market reaction to earnings surprises is not higher than to revenue surprises.     

Financial Health and the Intensive Margin of Trade

Using data on 2380 firms from nine emerging countries, this paper shows that there is a positive and significant relationship between financial health and the intensive margin of trade. The magnitude of this positive relationship is shown to depend on several firm characteristics, where the effects of financial health on firm-level exports are larger for firms with higher levels of export, bigger size (measured by assets), higher productivity (measured by value added per worker), and moderate levels of financial health (measured by cash flow over total assets). The results are robust to the consideration of foreign ownership and country characteristics as well as industry and time fixed effects.     

对企业债转股的财务评价和分析

债权转股权是金融资产管理公司作为投资主体,将商业银行原有的不良信贷资产转为金融管理公司对企业的股权,以及国家开发银行对企业的股权,由原来的债权债务关系,转变为金融资产管理公司和国家开发银行与实施债权转股权企业之间的持股与被持股或控股与被控股的关系。但是,并非所有国有企业都符合债转股条件,债转股对具体企业也不是都有利。对于符合条件,能考虑实施债转股,并对企业长期发展有利的企业,需要利用现代财务分析评价方法来分析评价债转股。     

A Structured Financial Statement Analysis and the Direct Prediction of Stock Prices in Korea

Using a large sample of firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange, this paper evaluates the usefulness of a structured, programmable financial statement analysis for investment decisions. In doing so, we develop a firm valuation model which links a firm's market value with fundamental variables such as the ability of a firm to generate cash flows, growth potentials, and risk. We predict a firm's intrinsic value directly from an extensive set of financial statement variables which proxy for the theoretical variables implied by the model. We then construct a series of trading strategies with zero net investment (called D-strategies) on the basis of D-values which measure percentage differences between predicted intrinsic values and observed market values. We observe that the market-adjusted and size-adjusted (hedge-portfolio) returns to the most conservative D-strategy turn out to be in the order of 16.92% and 11.44%, respectively,for the 12-month holding period. When our sample is stratified into two sub-samples based on firm size, the D-strategy yields higher excess return for the small-firm sub-sample than for the large-firm sub-sample. The above evidence, taken as a whole, strongly indicates that one can construct a profitable trading strategy by directly predicting intrinsic values through a structured financial statement analysis such as ours.     

金融机构信贷扩张、资产价格波动与金融危机——基于资产负债表分析模型

金融危机具有周期性特征,通常在金融危机爆发前后会发生显著的资产价格剧烈波动。由于银行中介信贷周期与宏观经济周期的同周期性,金融危机爆发前的信贷扩张与资产价格泡沫积累掩盖了金融机构的系统性风险问题;市场高涨往往伴随着金融自由化思潮、道德风险问题与实质性监管松弛。基于对金融中介机构资产负债表量化模型的构建与分析,应从资本充足率、金融资产计量属性、坏账拔备比率三个维度采取逆周期金融监管策略,以降低金融危机发生的概率。     

Tactical Asset Allocation and Stock Issuance in the Korean Stock Market

Stock issuance predicts future stock returns in the Korean market. This creates profitable trading opportunities. Abnormal returns exist in the zero-cost portfolio that short the firms issuing large numbers of shares and longs those issuing small numbers of shares. Their average abnormal return is 12 percent per annum, which is highly significant even after controlling for market, size, value, and momentum factors as well as transaction costs. The authors suggest the possibility of fixed costs in equity market timing. Only the sizable benefit from market timing over fixed costs motivates firms to increase net equity shares.     

Financial Integration in Asset and Liability Holdings in East Asia

In this article, we examine the evolution of intra-East Asian financial integration from 2001 to 2013. Most existing studies on this topic look primarily at asset holdings; we examine liability holdings as well. Using the International Monetary Fund’s Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey data for equities, long-term debt, and short-term debt, our analysis generally supports the conventional wisdom that East Asian countries are more financially integrated with global financial centers than they are with each other. This is true for both asset holdings and liabilities and is confirmed by an econometric analysis based on financial gravity equations. However, the gap between global integration and regional integration has narrowed for asset holdings over time but not for liability holdings. The results of additional econometric analysis indicate that diversification of liability holdings can mitigate financial instability due to global financial shocks. More precisely, diversification was associated with smaller exchange rate depreciation during the quantitative easing taper tantrum of 2013. These results point to a possible benefit from strengthening regional financial integration. Deeper regional integration would reduce dependence on global financial markets for funding and hence vulnerability to global shocks.