实施本外币一体化经营亟待解决的问题

随着中国加入WTO及经济全球化发展，金融国际化将成为我国金融业发展的必然趋势,无国金融业对外开放领域也将进一步扩大，国外金融机构的大量涌入及业务经营范围由单一外币扩大到本外币双重业务，势必造成金融同业竞争进一步加剧，这对我们农行来说，将不可避免地面临着严峻的竞争形势，为了尽快适应竞争的需要，总行及时提出了本外币一体化经营的战略，力图在经营观念上介导全行办外汇，在风险控制和部门职丽改善单一部门单打独斗的局面，从而形成本外币全方位营运的格局，为农行直接参与国际金融竞争奠定基础，然而，这一战略思想在具体实践中，特别是基层行实际运作上仍有很多亟待解决的问题，本就此作一些粗浅的探讨。     

贷记卡经营是一门风险管理的艺术

我国正式成为世界贸易组织(WTO)的成员后，外资银行将迅速进入中国市场，国内众家银行也在苦练内功，加紧备战，银行业务与服务充分竞争的“战国时代”即将来临。作为银行业务竞争的“桥头堡”，银行卡业务的竞争将更加激烈。而无论是外资银行，还是内资银行，都不约而同地将竞争目标锁定在“贷记卡”这个业务品种上。     

关于商业银行规范竞争问题的思考

在我国改革开放、社会主义市场经济条件下，国内多家商业银行并存，既携手并进，又互相竞争的格局已基本形成。他们竞争的主要对象是客户；竞争的主要手段是业务品种多寡、承受能力大小、营销网点多少、技术先进程度等服务能力；竞争成果是资产规模扩大，市场份额上升，资产质量改善，经济效益提高，为可持续发展和创造更多盈利打下良好的基础。为了在竞争中获胜，各家商业银行都在探索如何提高竞争能力。为了营造一个良好的竞争环境，我们必须探讨商业银行规范经营和规范竞争问题。所谓规范经营，应当说就是依法合规经营。     

提高我国商业银行经营效益的几点思考

随着经济体制改革的深化，我国商业银行也逐步形成了国有独资商业银行、股份制商业银行、区域性城市商业银行、农村信用社等多种形式的组织体系，这是我国金融体制改革的主要成果之一。多家并存、互相竞争的商业银行体系，对推动国民经济发展做出了重大贡献，也为我国金融长期繁荣与发展奠定了良好的基础。但在我国加入WTO后，面对外资银行激烈挑战的情况下，如何使我国商业银行在竞争中生存、发展，不能不引起我们对我国商业银行的现状和一些深层次问题的思考。     

对中小企业发展的几点思考

当今企业生存环境是一个竞争环境．只有竞争才能让老百姓得到更多实惠，只有在竞争的环境下才能发挥出企业经营管理的最高效能。没有竞争，就没有进步，没有竞争，就难以创新。西方人的经营哲学认为：一个企业若没有竞争，就是死亡了。那么中小企业在市场竞争中应扮演什么角色呢？若没有中小企业参与竞争或将来参与竞争．     

支持战略决策的财务管理

我国加入WTO后，为了适应经营环境的变化，许多商业银行已意识到必须转变以往粗放型的经营观念。如何选择竞争战略，如何创造和保持竞争优势，成为各商业银行亟须研究的课题。作为商业银行经营决策的重要支持部门——财务部门，由于其传统财务管理工作存在着许多不足，在对经营决策的支持上显得力不从心。     

树立银行价值最大化的经营理念

经过十多年的改革与发展，我国国有商业银行的经营理念发生了重大变化。在由专业银行向国有商业银行转轨初期，各家商业银行确立的经营目标大多是在竞争中提高市场份额，扩大各项业务的市场占有率，增加业务总体规模，以期由大变强，达到在市场上占主导地位的目的。     

“真金不怕火炼”

在美国某市的一条大街上很多家金店．竞争异常激烈。其中有一家金店凭着经营有方脱颖而出，顾客不断，惹得其他金店很是嫉妒。     

论农行人力资源开发管理机制创新

现代商业银行的竞争归根结底是人才的竞争，而人才竞争的根本是人力资源管理制度的竞争。农行要与国际金融接轨，参与国际国内金融竞争，创建具有国际经营管理水平的商业银行，就必须首先在创新人力资源开发管理机制上做好章，提高核心竞争力。     

加强管理创新提升中国银行业的核心竞争力

入世以后，中国的银行业面临着外资银行巨大的竞争压力，要想取得竞争优势，就必须加强管理创新，提升自己的核心竞争力。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.