Market Price of Insurance Risk Implied by Catastrophe Derivatives

Abstract

Insurance derivatives facilitate the trading of insurance risks on capital markets, such as catastrophe derivatives that were traded on the Chicago Board of Trade. Simultaneously, insurance risks are traded through reinsurance portfolios. In this paper we make inferences about the market price of risk implied by the information embedded in the prices of these two assets.     

保险资金参与地方保障房建设制度设计的探讨——以浙江省保障性住房建设为例

保障房建设所具有的低风险和收益稳定的特点,符合当前保险资金资产负债配置的需要。保险资金介入地方保障房建设有助于降低保险资金投资收益对资本市场的依赖程度,规避因资本市场的波动所带来的风险。出于对投保人利益以及保险资金安全的考虑,监管机构应加强对保险公司投资保障性住房的引导和规整。保险公司应建立健全保险资金投资保障房建设的风险管理机制,加强保险公司介入保障房建设融资资金的退出机制构建。     

Insurance Market Dynamics: Between Global Developments and Local Contingencies

Insurance markets have changed radically and deeply in the past twenty years. Deregulation, globalization of insurance institutions, intensified competition, electronic commerce, bancassurance, and the emergence of new risks are among the challenges faced by insurance markets. Although important global trends are reshaping insurance markets, the emphasis on globalization overlooks the local diversity of insurance markets worldwide. This article reviews the global developments and local factors affecting insurance markets and evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of globalization. Among the important global trends are the increasing sophistication of insurance products, the globalization of risk diversification through reinsurance, the emergence of mega-financial intermediaries, and the growing importance of supranational agencies such as the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. On the other hand, there remains significant heterogeneity among countries and regions that has a profound impact on insurance markets. Among the important local differences are political, legal, and cultural components as well as differences in financial markets, taxation, regulatory systems, insurer investment strategies, and insurance distribution systems.     

Who makes markets

A dealer needs access to order flow and information to make a market profitably in a Nasdaq stock. Several variables that proxy for the stocks that an individual market maker's brokerage customers trade, including volume, location, underwriting participation and analyst coverage, are significant determinants of market making activity. Informational advantages may also factor in the market making decision as evidenced by dealers specializing in industries. These findings suggest that individual dealers have competitive advantages in making markets in specific stocks, and that potential market making competition comes from the dealers who share those advantages rather than all Nasdaq market makers.     

Versicherungswissenschaft — Quo vadis?

Insurance science comprises interdisciplinary theories of the real phenomenon ‘insurance’. It reflects the real risk Systems, economic and juridical formation of insurance business, structures and processes in insurance-lin-ked institutions and the overall environment of insurance industry. New de-velopments of insurance science are related to changes of risks, new categories of risk transfer techniques and convergence of insurance and financial markets, including international regulatory Systems of all insurance, financial and capital markets.     

Arbitrage and Viability in Insurance Markets

Insurance markets are subject to transaction costs and constraints on portfolio holdings. Therefore, unlike the frictionless asset markets case, viability is not equivalent to absence of arbitrage possibilities. We use the concept of unbounded arbitrage to characterize viable prices on a complete and an incomplete insurance market. In the complete market, there is an insurance contract for every possible event. In the incomplete market, risk can be insured through proportional and excess of loss like insurance contracts. We show how the the structure of viable prices is affected by the portfolio constraints, the transaction costs, and the structure of marketed contracts.     

To Sustain a Vital and Vibrant Actuarial Profession

Abstract

Insurance markets are different from most other markets. Insurance markets have an inherent self-destructive tendency that can cause market failure. However, insurance markets not only exist, they thrive. This paper explores the essential role that actuaries play in countering problems that can cause market failure. Armed with our mathematical and business skills and strong sense of professionalism, actuaries are essential to the successful growth of insurance companies and insurance markets. The breakdown of barriers among segments of the financial services industry creates an opportunity for actuaries to apply these same skills to noninsurance financial institutions. Actuaries have a strong claim to becoming the profession the public relies upon to ensure that an adequate balance is kept between profits and solvency. The foundation of this claim is not the superiority of our intellectual tools. It is the advantages to society of actuaries as a well-defined, recognized group of trustworthy and professional financial managers.     

WHERE'S THE CAT GOING? SOME OBSERVATIONS ON CATASTROPHE BONDS

This article provides an assessment of the current state of the market for catastrophe (or "Cat") bonds. Given the changes in insurance markets since September 11th, the demand for Cat bonds is likely to increase. For issuers, Cat bonds have the effect of transferring risks to the capital markets that would normally be underwritten by insurance or reinsurance companies. And as a substitute for insurance, Cat bonds have the potential to help issuers address problems such as lack of capacity and real risk transfer, cyclicality, and credit risk that are commonly associated with insurance and reinsurance markets. Investors value Cat bonds in part because of their low correlations with stocks and conventional bonds. Notable trends in the structuring of the products involve higher levels of risk transfer, longer-term contracts, and linkage to a portfolio of catastrophic risks.     

Designing feasible and effective health plan payments in countries with data availability constraints

Risk equalization schemes, which transfer money to/from insurers that have above/below average risks, are a fundamental tool in regulated health insurance markets in many countries. Risk sharing (the transfer of some responsibility for costs from a plan to the regulator or the overall insurance market), are an additional method of insulating insurers who attract higher-than-average risks. This paper proposes, implements and quantifies incorporating risk sharing within a risk equalization scheme that can be applied in a data-poor context. Using Chile's private health insurance market as case study, we show that modest amount of risk sharing greatly improves fit even in simple demographic-based risk equalization. Expanding the model's formula to include morbidity-based adjustors and risk sharing redirects compensations at insurer level and reduces opportunity to engage in profitable risk selection at the group level. Our emphasis on feasibility may make alternatives proposed attractive to countries facing data-availability constraints.     

VaR模型及其在寿险公司风险管理中的应用

随着保险产品的创新、竞争的加剧及金融市场的发展,我国寿险公司面临的风险将更为复杂和多样,如何对这些风险进行有效管理是寿险公司面临的重要难题,而VaR模型作为当前国际金融风险管理和金融监管的主流方法,含有丰富的风险管理思想,故对VaR模型进行研究并探讨其在我国寿险公司风险管理中的应用具有一定的现实意义。本文分析了寿险公司应用VaR模型时需注意的问题,并指出我国寿险公司建立基于VaR的风险管理体系需在公司治理结构、风险管理组织架构、风险管理技术、风险数据库等方面加以完善。     

存款保险、市场竞争与银行经营稳健性

本文基于银行存款市场空间竞争模型,探讨存款保险制度的实施效果和福利效应,及其与市场竞争政策的交互作用。研究表明,政府隐性担保尽管能够保障存款人利益,但会降低存款人对银行经营稳健性的要求,使得银行追求高风险高收益资产从而降低经营稳健性;而市场化的存款保险制度通过费率与风险挂钩的激励机制,能够有效提升银行经营稳健性,同时避免过高政策成本负担,实现较高的社会福利水平。随着市场竞争强化,引入风险差别费率保险制度,在提升银行经营稳健性和增进社会福利方面的效果逐渐增强。模型分析表明,当长期允许机构自由进出市场时,政府强化竞争政策短期可能降低银行的经营稳健性,但长期内高风险银行逐渐退出市场而更有效率的低风险银行进入市场,这种柔性市场退出机制使得银行业整体经营稳健性增强。因此,在金融市场中强化竞争政策,推行并完善当前市场化的风险差别费率存款保险制度,长期内有助于在保护存款人利益的同时,提升银行稳健性和社会福利。     

Does Insurance Market Activity Promote Economic Growth? A Cross‐Country Study for Industrialized and Developing Countries

Insurance market activity may contribute to economic growth, both as financial intermediary and provider of risk transfer and indemnification, by allowing different risks to be managed more efficiently and by mobilizing domestic savings. During the last decade, there has been faster growth in insurance market activity, particularly in emerging markets, given the process of financial liberalization and integration, which raises questions about the overall impact on economic growth. This article tests whether there is a causal relationship between insurance market activity (life and nonlife insurance) and economic growth. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) for dynamic models of panel data for 55 countries between 1976 and 2004, I find robust evidence for this relationship. Both life and nonlife insurance have a positive and significant causal effect on economic growth. For life insurance, high‐income countries drive the results, and for nonlife insurance, both high‐income and developing countries drive the results.     

Reinsurance for Natural and Man-Made Catastrophes in the United States: Current State of the Market and Regulatory Reforms

U.S. insurers are heavily dependent on global reinsurance markets to enable them to provide adequate primary market insurance coverage. This article reviews the response of the world's reinsurance industry to recent mega-catastrophes and provides recommendations for regulatory reforms that would improve the efficiency of reinsurance markets. The article also considers the supply of insurance and reinsurance for terrorism and makes recommendations for joint public–private responses to insuring terrorism losses. The analysis shows that reinsurance markets responded efficiently to recent catastrophe losses and that substantial amounts of new capital enter the reinsurance industry very quickly following major catastrophic events. Considerable progress has been made in improving risk and exposure management, capital allocation, and rate of return targeting. Insurance price regulation for catastrophe-prone lines of business is a major source of inefficiency in insurance and reinsurance markets. Deregulation of insurance prices would improve the efficiency of insurance markets, enabling markets to deal more effectively with mega-catastrophes. The current inadequacy of the private terrorism reinsurance market suggests that the federal government may need to remain involved in this market, at least for the next several years.     

保险监管失灵及其规避问题

保险市场失灵需要保险监管来弥补,但保险监管也存在失灵的现象。本文首先从理论上对保险监管失灵进行了解释,然后结合我国保险监管的失灵风险,对规避监管失灵的难点进行了分析,并着重讨论了如何在委托人缺位、缺乏直接激励和约束机制的情况下规避监管失灵。     

Industrial Organization of Financial Systems and Strategic Use of Relationship Banking

Using standard Industrial Organization tools, we analyze the relation between competition in arm's length financial markets and the prevalence of close bank-firms ties. We show how the degree of competition between financial intermediaries affects the intensity of relationships between banks and client firms, and explore the idea that investment in bank-firm relationships can be used strategically by incumbent multi-product (universal) banks to limit competition in arm's length markets. The analysis implies that reforms designed to facilitate entry of new intermediaries may actually induce incumbent banks to increase investment in relationship banking, so that regulatory entry barriers are replaced by entry barriers created endogenously, namely, there is ``path dependence' in the market structure of financial systems. This result suggests that increased (potential) competition in the financial services industry will not always destroy bank-firm relationships but, on the contrary, may actually strengthen them.     

Stock Options and the Corporate Demand for Insurance

This article shows that a corporate manager compensated in stock options makes corporate decisions to maximize stock option value. Overinvestment is a consequence if risk increases with investment. Facing the choice of hedging corporate risk with forward contracts on a stock market index fund and insuring pure risks the manager will choose the latter. Hedging with forwards reduces weight in both tails of corporate payoff distribution and thus reduces option value. Insuring pure risks reduces the weight in the left tail where the options are out‐of‐the‐money and increases the weight in the right tail where the options are in‐the‐money; the effect is an increase in the option value. Insurance reduces the overinvestment problem but no level of insurance coverage can reduce investment to that which maximizes the shareholder value.     

The Shareholder Wealth Effects of Insurance Securitization: Preliminary Evidence from the Catastrophe Bond Market

Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase the underwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, global volumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raises questions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value of insurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitization by issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hitherto underwhelming contribution of Cat bonds to global catastrophe coverage, we do not find evidence that Cat bonds lead to strong wealth gains for shareholders in the issuing firm. More importantly, we report large variations in the distribution of wealth effects in response to the issue announcement. We show that the wealth effects for shareholders in firms which issue Cat bonds appear to be driven by explanations according to which Cat bonds offer cost savings relative to other forms of catastrophe risk management (and less by the potential of Cat bonds to hedge catastrophe risk). Thus, abnormal returns are particularly large for issues by firms which face low levels of loss uncertainty (which reduces the information acquisition costs in financial markets) as well as for issues during periods when prices for catastrophe coverage (including Cat bonds) are low.     

The Risk‐Sharing Implications of Disaster Insurance Funds

We study the risk‐sharing implications that arise from introducing a disaster insurance fund to the cat insurance market. Such a form of intervention can increase efficiency in the private market, and our design of disaster insurance suggests a prominent role of catastrophe reinsurance. The model predicts buyers will increase their demand in the private market, and the seller will lower prices to such an extent that their revenues decrease upon introduction of disaster insurance. We test two predictions in the context of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA). It is already known that the introduction of TRIA led to negative abnormal returns in the insurance industry. In addition, we show this negative effect is stronger for larger and for low‐risk‐averse firms—two results that are consistent with our model. The seller’s risk aversion plays an important role in quantifying such feedback effects, and we point toward possible distortions in which a firm may even be overhedged upon introduction of disaster insurance.     

Product Ratings as a Market Reaction to Deregulation: Evidence From the German Insurance Market

This study provides the first investigation of information markets as a reaction to deregulation of product forms in insurance markets. The article studies the case of Germany, where insurance product ratings entered the market after relaxation of product regulation in 1994. The ratings’ potential for enhancing the performance of a deregulated insurance market is analyzed by considering both market structure and governance characteristics of the rating market, since the theoretical literature predicts that both are important determinants of rating outcomes. Data from a unique panel data set containing disability insurance ratings from the three major rating agencies are also examined in light of theoretical predictions. Results suggest that market governance and competition characteristics are favorable for the production of unbiased and informative ratings. Ratings for disability insurance support this interpretation, since the characteristics of the ratings conform to theoretical predictions about ratings in well‐functioning rating markets.     

Zunehmende Unsicherheit als Risiko für die Versicherung: Risikotransfer zwischen Unternehmen,Banken, Versicherungen und Märkten

The increase in natural and human catastrophes is well documented. For risk averse private customers this increase in risks implies an increase in the willingness to pay for insurance which in turn increases the business possibilities for insurers. However, this argumentation can not be transferred to firm insurance, as, following the work by Modigliani and Miller, companies are in general not to be regarded as being risk averse. In this article we discuss with the example of the demand for reinsurance why firms might want to shift risk to other firms. An empirical study for the German market for reinsurance is presented. The results are then used to discuss whether an increase in risk might lead to an increase in risk transfers between firms and insurers.