新环境新变化--日本对外贸易政策动向评析

进入新世纪以来，日本所面对的贸易环境发生了较大变化，WTO首轮多边贸易谈判得以启动，区域自由贸易协定(下称区域协定)发展势头强劲，中国成功加入WTO，日本贸易收支盈余出现减少倾向等，都对日本对外贸易政策产生了一定的影响。     

自由贸易协定深化、数字贸易规则与数字贸易发展

本文通过构建自由贸易协定数字贸易异质性条款指标体系，在静态签订、总体深化、水平深化和垂直深化多重视角下，全面探究自由贸易协定深化对数字贸易影响。分析发现，自由贸易协定签订、总体深化、水平深化与垂直深化均对数字贸易存在显著正向效应，核心WTO-X深度条款、边境后措施深度条款促进效应更强，但自由贸易协定深化的第三方效应对数字贸易存在显著的负向作用。在异质性影响方面，数字贸易条款类型、自由贸易协定深化领域类型、数字产品类型等对数字贸易呈现显著差异化影响，电子商务、数据流动条款深化呈现促进效应，但知识产权条款深化呈现抑制效应；包含政治性、经济一体化和研发合作领域的自由贸易协定对数字贸易促进作用更大；自由贸易协定深化对计算机及外围设备出口的促进效应更大，对通信设备出口的影响次之。基于全球样本的经验证据，本文以RCEP和CPTPP为样本，探寻构建数字贸易规则的“中国范本”，促进中国掌握新一轮全球数字贸易规则制定的主动权。     

新加坡双边自由贸易谈判的进展及其影响

近年，新加坡积极与美、日、澳、新、加、墨等国展开了双边自由贸易协定的谈判，并巳与新西兰和日本正式签订了双边自由贸易协定。新加坡加速双边贸易的自由化，主要是八千球多边与双边贸易自由化浪潮下该日积极调整对外经贸战略的重要措施，而其自由商港和城市国家的地位则提供了有利的条件。新加坡双边自由贸易协定的签证，使得未来区域内经济合作与贸易自由化的模式更趋错综复杂和丰富多彩。     

加快实施自贸区战略营造持续稳定的贸易环境

区域贸易协定（RTA）包括：关税同盟（CU）、经济伙伴关系协定（EPA）、自由贸易协定（FTA）、局部自由贸易协定（PSA）、服务贸易一体化协议（EIA）,但不包括单向优惠的优惠贸易协定。它是指政府之间为了达到区域贸易自由化或贸易便利化的目标所签署的各类协定的统称。     

中国区域贸易自由化战略研究

随着区域贸易自由化在全球范围内的兴起,中国参与区域贸易协定的力度在不断加大,各种可能的自由贸易协定方案都在积极的讨论之中,中国与澳大利亚、新西兰、印度、韩国、日本和南非的自由贸易协定是六个主要的方向。本文分析了中国与以上六国的贸易关系,并根据GTAP模型分析了中国与六国建立自由贸易区的经济影响。从短期看,中国有必要加强与澳大利亚、新西兰、南非三国的贸易关系;从长期看,建立自由贸易区的重点是韩国、印度、南非三国。中国在与韩国建立自由贸易区时,要重点关注自由贸易协定对纺织服装业、交通工具和其他制造业的负面冲击。     

中国—巴基斯坦自贸区贸易创造与贸易转移效应的实证分析

2007年7月1日,《中国—巴基斯坦自由贸易协定》正式实施,推动了中巴双方的经贸合作。文章运用巴拉萨模型检验了中国—巴基斯坦自由贸易区的贸易创造与贸易转移效应,根据实证的结果得出中巴自由贸易协定的实施,无论是对区内两国的贸易创造还是对区外国家的贸易转移效应都不明显,应利用中巴双方产品结构的互补性,促进双边贸易进一步增长。     

自由贸易协定中贸易便利化规则对价值链贸易的影响北大核心

文章利用世界银行深度贸易协定数据库,对自由贸易协定中纳入的贸易便利化与海关程序规则进行统计,实证检验贸易便利化规则深度对价值链贸易的影响。研究结果表明,随着贸易网络扩大,欧盟在整个贸易便利化结构网络中稳居主导地位,中国、韩国等节点的影响力逐年提升,美国、智利等节点的度中心度有所下降。这些缔约方在自由贸易协定中纳入的贸易便利化规则深度越高,越能促进价值链贸易发展,且对中间品贸易的影响弹性显著高于最终品贸易。在六项代表性贸易便利化规则中,单一窗口、经认证经营者带来的贸易创造效应更加明显。进一步通过机制检验发现,贸易便利化规则对价值链贸易的促进作用受到成员国之间制度距离、地理距离和经济距离的约束。但若成员国同为"一带一路"沿线国,贸易便利化规则会放大其贸易效应。研究表明,促进"一带一路"高质量发展,加快与周边国家签署自由贸易协定,规制高标准贸易便利化规则,对提升中国在全球价值链中的地位具有重要意义。     

CEPA探索与示范——贸易投资便利化：CEPA的探索与示范——专访商务部副部长安民

CEPA框架下推进贸易投资便利化的各项工作在各国（地区）签署的众多自由贸易协定中走到了前面，引起了有关国家的兴趣．并希望更多地了解详细的政策和措施。因为他们的共识是，CEPA框架下的贸易投资便利化既是内地与港澳经济融合的需要也是全球经济一体化的积极探索。[编者按]     

数字贸易规则“日本模式”:构建路径与发展趋向

日本近年来基于“多层”战略思维打造数字贸易规则“日本模式”。数字贸易规则“日本模式”是以DFFT理念为最终实现目标，在紧紧围绕WTO框架主动参与数字贸易规则制定的同时，利用其他国际组织大力传播数字贸易理念以扩大影响，通过自由贸易协定谈判具体参与并实践数字贸易规则制定的发展模式。该模式在借鉴“美国模式”强调数字自由流通的基础上，部分糅合了“欧洲模式”注重个人隐私和数据传输监管的特点。今后数字贸易规则“日本模式”会在打造核心理念、提升规则话语权、融合经济安保理念以及强化价值观属性这几方面继续得到强化。     

中日服务贸易区域合作发展研究

随着中国自由贸易区建设的不断成熟、服务业开放程度的不断加深、服务贸易的快速增长,服务贸易已经成为中国自由贸易区战略的重要组成部分.而日本在服务贸易领域的优势更是不言而喻.中日服务贸易或可成为中日自由贸易区建立的突破口,即签署以服务贸易为主要内容的包括大部分产品和投资等领域的中日自由贸易协定,逐渐形成包括所有产品的、更宽泛的中日区域贸易协定.     

Economic integration in northeast Asia: Preconditions and possible trajectories

When in November 2001, the leaders of the Southeast Asian and Northeast Asian states met for the “ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) plus three (China, Japan and Korea),” President Kim Dae‐Jung of South Korea proposed the exploration for an East Asian Free Trade Area (EAFTA) and thereby opened a new chapter of East Asian integration. The special Northeast Asian perspective on regional co‐operation became clear by the simultaneous decision to hold annual meetings of finance and trade ministers of China, Japan and Korea. At the same time, bilateral agreements, like a free trade area between Japan and Singapore, the tentative large free trade area between ASEAN and China and the work‐in‐progress on a Korean‐Japanese Free Trade Area, show the devotion and sometimes even obsession of current policy‐making with reaching regional trade agreements. Regional integration, it seems, is finally on the Northeast Asian agenda. In this paper, the preconditions and perspectives of economic integration in Northeast Asia will be explored. Since economic integration is in various ways linked to political factors, the second section discusses the geo‐political situation of Northeast Asia today. The third section deals with the economic perspectives of different forms of trade integration, followed by an analysis of various attempts for greater macro‐economic and financial co‐operation and a short conclusion.     

Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia

East Asia has been considered a latecomer with respect to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Since the turn of the last century, however, FTAs with East Asian participation have seen an intra- and extra-regional expansion. Many trade initiatives have been proposed, negotiated or even implemented. This introduces interesting perspectives for the analysis of trade agreements regarding their anticipatory trade effects. This paper focuses on the trade impact of FTAs at different stages that East Asian economies participate in. The central part of this study is an econometric analysis that applies panel data to the gravity model of international trade flows. We augment the traditional model with variables to estimate trade effects of bilateral and multilateral agreements and year-to-year changes in the stages of their implementation. Our results reveal that there exist anticipatory effects preceding the actual implementation of bilateral FTAs with East Asian participation. Further, anticipation effects are larger for bilateral than for multilateral agreements, possibly because the realisation of bilateral agreements is considered more realistic.     

Real effects of common currencies in East Asia

Since the 1997 Asian currency crisis, new interest has emerged in the formation of a common currency area in East Asia. This paper provides estimates of trade and welfare effects of East Asian currency unions, using a micro-founded gravity model. Counter-factual experiments to assess the effects of various hypothetical currency arrangements for East Asia suggest that an East Asian currency union will double bilateral trade in the region, but the resulting welfare effects will be moderate. However, if Japan, a major trade partner for East Asia, is included in the union, welfare effects increase substantially. The evidence thus suggests that certain regional currency arrangements in East Asia will stimulate regional trade rigorously and can generate economically significant welfare gains.     

Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?*

By assessing the sustainability of regional trade agreements (RTAs) for East Asia, we quantitatively evaluate the likely impact of proposed East Asian RTA strategies on the East Asian economies and the world economy with respect to consumption, production, volume of trade and terms of trade effects by applying a multi‐country and multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model. These strategies include: (i) the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA: a being‐left‐alone strategy); (ii) an ASEAN Hub RTA (a hub‐and‐spoke type of overlapping RTA strategy); (iii) the AFTA versus a China–Japan–Korea RTA (a duplicating or competing RTA strategy); and (iv) an ASEAN+3 RTA (an expansionary RTA strategy). We find that an expansionary ASEAN+3 RTA could be a sustainable policy option because the members’ gains would be significantly positive, with more equitably distributed gains between members than when using other strategies. The effect on world welfare would also be positive and the negative effect on nonmembers would not be very strong. More interestingly, if the East Asian countries cooperate with Pacific Basin countries to form an APEC‐level RTA, such as a free trade area of the Asia‐Pacific, the extension of the regional trade bloc might be considered a more desirable policy option than the proposed East Asian RTAs for East Asian economies, even though countries excluded from the free trade area of the Asia Pacific are worse off.     

China＇s Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea： A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia's recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlights China's position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast‐growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China's FTAs with East Asian major economies: China–ASEAN, China–Japan, China–Korea and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China's output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN+3. Because forming a region‐wide FTA, such as the ASEAN+3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China should continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a medium‐term and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a region‐wide FTA.     

East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.     

Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN + 6 FTA for Lao PDR

Using an unbalanced panel dataset of bilateral exports from 1992 to 2009, we assess the potential trade impacts of the expansion of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 on the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). It is found that bilateral exports are positively related to overall bilateral country size and similarity in country size but inversely related to the factor endowment differences, transportation costs, and import tariffs. Simulation results show that the formation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) between ASEAN and the Plus‐6 economies (the People's Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in East Asia; and the other three economies of Australia, India, and New Zealand) could increase bilateral trade between the Lao PDR and ASEAN + 6 by US$1 billion, and ASEAN + 3 by US$981 million. Nonetheless, the trade balance of the Lao PDR is likely to worsen in both the ASEAN + 3 and ASEAN + 6 PTAs because they stimulate more imports than exports.     

Measuring trade creation effects of free trade agreements: Evidence from wine trade in East Asia

East Asia has experienced an unprecedented expansion in its wine market over the past two decades. This paper examines the extent to which import tariff reductions through bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) have contributed to an increase in wine imports to Japan, China, and South Korea. Our empirical method involves estimating an augmented version of the gravity equation by the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) technique. Analyzing a panel dataset for 1990–2016 covering 27 exporters, we find that overall a 1 percentage point reduction in tariff among FTA member countries is associated with an increase in the wine import volumes by 0.042%, which is seven times higher than a similar reduction in tariff on an MFN basis. The strongest trade creation effects are founded for bottle wine. The results are robust to various specifications.     

日韩对东盟的FTA战略及我国的对策

近年来,东亚地区的区域经济一体化发展迅速,中国、日本、韩国和东盟分别制定了各自的战略来应对一体化带来的挑战。目前,东盟已分别同中国、日本和韩国签署了自由贸易协定。文章指出,面对日韩对东盟的FTA战略,我国应该从扩大彼此间贸易、鼓励企业走出去、做好贸易平衡、加强双边的资金和技术合作等方面来促进中国—东盟自由贸易区的发展。     

日本依托区域经济一体化主导国际经贸规则制定权的战略分析

以安倍第二次出任日本首相为分水岭,起步晚、发展迅速的日本区域经济一体化战略发生了巨大的变化:由昔日高度重视通过参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来确保日本经济稳定发展的资源供给、不断开拓的海外市场转向了依托参与、组建区域经济一体化组织来主导国际经贸规则制定权。为此,安倍政府实施了以TPP/CPTPP、RCEP、中日韩FTA等区域多边贸易协定为龙头,以日欧EPA、日美贸易协定、日美数字贸易协定、日英EPA等双边自由贸易协定为两翼的区域经济一体化战略,使日本"成为在区域层面以及双边层面创造规则的国家"。