The measurement and structure of household wealth

This paper deals with methodological issues that arise in measuring household wealth. Two prominent American household surveys—the PSID and SCF—rely on different methodological approaches to the measurement of household wealth. In particular, SCF oversamples high-income households and has a far more extensive set of questions. In the top one percent of the wealth distribution, better measures of wealth are related to over-sampling of very wealthy households and the number of questions that are asked. However, one can characterize total household wealth holdings for the overwhelming majority of households with a relatively moderate number of questions. When successive waves of wealth modules are used to compute savings, the verdict on quality is more cautious, in part due to the inherently larger role measurement error plays in any first difference formulation.     

我国上市公司可转换债券发行的财富效应研究

本文运用事件研究方法对可转换债券的发行是否具有财富效应进行了实证分析,结果表明我国上市公司可转换债券的发行不具有明显的财富效应。这一结果与国外的多数相关研究有较大差别,本文对此进行了探讨。     

SAVINGS AND WEALTH ACCUMULATION: MEASUREMENT,INFLUENCES AND INSTITUTIONS

Savings and wealth accumulation are important dimensions of policy and research debates. This special issue comprises a collection of survey articles on topical issues ranging from the effects of access to credit, the rise of Islamic finance and sovereign wealth funds, the measurement of wealth inequality and genuine savings, the distribution of wealth across generations and retirement savings.     

Monetary policy,asset prices and consumption in China

This paper studies the wealth channel in China. Although the wealth channel has been found to be functioning in many advanced countries, its existence is yet to be explored in most emerging economies, also in China. In order to illuminate dynamics between monetary policy, asset prices and consumption, we use the structural vector autoregression method. The findings support the view that a loosening of China's monetary policy does indeed lead to higher asset prices. Furthermore, a positive shock to residential prices increases household consumption, while the role of stock prices seems to be small from the households’ point of view. Finally, we test the existence of the wealth channel more formally to find out whether those changes in asset prices that are caused by monetary policy are significant enough to increase consumption. In summary, the wealth channel remains weak but there are some signs of it via residential prices. The results are not that different from those attained for the advanced economies, where the size of the wealth channel has been found to be limited.     

A portfolio approach to endogenous growth: equilibrium and optimal policy

This paper develops a portfolio approach to modeling endogenous growth in continuous time that is especially suitable for addressing fiscal and financial issues in policy design. The analysis focuses on the equilibrium relationship between fiscal and financial policy, rates of return and wealth allocation. We analyze two models. The first is based on the Arrow-Romer model with increasing returns and an external effect of capital on labor productivity. The second draws on Barro's analysis of government spending and endogenous growth. In both models, we study the equilibrium allocation and discuss the optimal fiscal and financial policy.     

Optimal migration policies: an analytical approach. Part I

This paper explores the analytical features of population distribution or human settlement policies. It proposes a methodology for quantitative policy analysis and policy design based on optimal control and system theory. The paper consists of two parts. This part shows how policy models may be derived from demographic and demoeconomic or demometric models by adding a new dimension: the goals-means relationship of population distribution policy. It examines a large class of relevant policy models and demonstrates their relationship to the original Tinbergen Theory of Policy, which provides a paradigm for static and dynamic policy analysis. Problems of existence and of design of optimal population distribution policies are studied analytically. In designing optimal policies, use may be made of the minimizing properties of generalized inverses.     

基于VAR模型的中国股市财富效应实证研究

文章运用基于VAR模型的协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、ECM方法研究有关财富效应的一些问题,形成以下结论:我国股票市场总体上存在财富效应,但在某些时段表现为股市投资对消费的替代效应;通过股票市场刺激消费的做法短期可行,长期并不有效。文章最后提出了有利于发挥股市财富效应的相关措施。     

Resources, conflict and development choices: public good provision in resource rich economies

Natural resource wealth can be a curse or a blessing for a country. This paper hypothesises that the provision of productive public goods (or lack of it) is a pathway that helps understand these different outcomes when policy choices are made under the threat of conflict inherent in resource-rich countries. Facing potential conflict over resources, a self-interested ruler may choose to invest in either military repression or in productive public goods—physical and social infrastructure. While both measures aim at preventing conflict, we show theoretically that the optimal policy choice depends on the relative effectiveness of the ruler and the population in contesting the resources. Increased resource wealth provides a disincentive to invest in development if the ruler is more effective than the population in appropriating the resources. Conversely, if the ruler is relatively ineffective, more resource wealth induces higher levels of public goods. We present empirical evidence consistent with the predictions of the model for a sample of 57 countries over three decades. Thus, we provide and test empirically a conditional resource curse theory, postulating that the relative effectiveness of the contenders plays a crucial role in determining whether resources are a curse or a blessing.     

CENTRAL BANK POLICIES AND INCOME AND WEALTH INEQUALITY: A SURVEY

This paper reviews recent research on the relationship between central bank policies and inequality. A new paradigm which integrates sticky‐prices, incomplete markets, and heterogeneity among households is emerging, which allows for the joint study of how inequality shapes macroeconomic aggregates and how macroeconomic shocks and policies affect inequality. The new paradigm features multiple distributional channels of monetary policy. Most empirical studies, however, analyze each potential channel of redistribution in isolation. Our review suggests that empirical research on the effects of conventional monetary policy on income and wealth inequality yields mixed findings, although there seems to be a consensus that higher inflation, at least above some threshold, increases inequality. In contrast to common wisdom, conclusions concerning the impact of unconventional monetary policies on inequality are also not clear cut. To better understand policy effects on inequality, future research should focus on the estimation of General Equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents.     

Regional business development policy in Central and Eastern Europe: a mechanism design perspective

This paper explains one aspect of the challenges faced by regional development policy in Central and Eastern Europe. At issue is a policy for the development and expansion of small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). The causes and dynamics of difficulties with SME development policies are analyzed in a mechanism design/game theory framework, in which “policy failure” arises as an equilibrium phenomenon. The model results deliver a cautionary note: that indiscriminate application of market criteria may be counterproductive in an environment characterized by severe constraints on material wealth accumulation.     

The impact of market structure on environmental efficiency in the United States: A quantile approach

This paper investigates the relationship between efficiency and market structure for a sample of industrial facilities dispersed among the U.S. states. In order to measure the relevant efficiency scores, we use a data envelopment analysis allowing for the inclusion of desirable and undesirable (toxic chemical releases) outputs in the production function. In the next stage, we utilize the bootstrapped quantile regression methodology to uncover possible nonlinear relationships between efficiency and competition at the mean and at various quantiles before and after the global financial crisis (2002 and 2012). In this way, we impose no functional form constraints on parameter values over the conditional distribution of the dependent variable (efficiency). At the same time, we estimate at which part of its cumulative distribution function the efficiency is located and draw substantial conclusions about the range of policy measures obtained. The empirical findings indicate that the relationship between efficiency and market concentration did change in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The empirical results survived robustness checks under the inclusion of an alternative market concentration indicator (CR8).     

Nominal rigidities equilibria in a non-Ricardian economy

I consider a cash-in-advance economy with nominal price rigidities. Nominal interest rates are the cost of liquidity and fiscal policy sets nominal transfers that affect the distribution of wealth. Under a fiscal policy associated with an unequal distribution of wealth and for policies of low or even zero interest rates, coordination failures exist, that is, involuntary unemployment persist even if prices are set at full employment levels. Coordination failures exist if and only if nominal rates are below a threshold. Moreover, I demonstrate the following result on welfare: full employment allocations at a nominal rate equal to the threshold (high liquidity costs) are better, in terms of welfare, from unemployment allocations at any non-negative interest rates below the threshold. On the other hand, under a sufficiently progressive fiscal system that reduces the inequality in the wealth distribution, coordination failures do not exist.     

An agent-based model of the observed distribution of wealth in the United States

Pareto cautiously asserted that the wealth and income distributions which bear his name are universal, basing his argument on observations of this distribution in many different types of economies. In this paper, we present an agent based model (and a scalable approximation of it) in a closely related spirit. The central feature of this model is that wealth enables an individual to secure more wealth. Specifically, the important and novel feature of this model is its ability to simultaneously produce both the Pareto distribution observed in empirical data for the top 10% of the population and the exponential distribution observed for the lower 90%. We show that the model produces these distributions of wealth when initialized with an equitable distribution. Then, using historical data, we initialize the model with US wealth shares in 1988 and show that the model tracks wealth share changes from 1988 to 2012. Simulations to 2088 project that the top 0.01% of the population will possess more than 70% of the total wealth in the economy.     

A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.     

THE STOCK MARKET, HOUSING AND CONSUMER SPENDING: A SURVEY OF THE EVIDENCE ON WEALTH EFFECTS

Abstract.  This paper examines the time-series and micro-econometric evidence on the relationship between stock and house prices and consumer spending. The time-series studies distinguish between short-run and long-run links between consumption, income and wealth. They allow us to identify which variables adjust to restore the long-run equilibrium in the case of a shock, and to determine the time taken by the adjustment process. The micro-econometric literature improves our understanding of the link between wealth and expenditure and distinguishes among the alternative hypotheses – of direct wealth effect, common causality and collateral channel – that have been proposed to explain this relationship. The relationship between wealth and consumer spending appears to be strong, but there is some disagreement as to its size and nature. Furthermore, there appear to be some important differences across countries, which should be allowed for by policy makers when appraising the policy implications of a change in asset prices.     

On the decomposition of rank-dependent indicator of socio-economic inequalities in child malnutrition: Some empirical findings

The persistent socioeconomic disparities in child under-nutrition in developing countries raises an important health policy question - whether different nutrition base interventions are required for different areas? Addressing this question, the main objective of this study is to investigate the trends of socio-economic inequalities in child undernutrition in Pakistan and to assess the causes of these inequalities through decomposition analysis. Using Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, round 2017–18, data this study examined inequalities in child undernutrition through different health inequality indices. Moreover, decomposition analysis is performed by applying generalized decomposition procedure under recentered influence function (RIF) regression to find the contribution of (i) differences in levels of different factors (composition effects) and (ii) differences in the intensity of association between socio-demographic factors and child undernutrition (coefficient effects) to the observed inequality. Study findings suggest substantial pro-educated inequalities in child under-nutrition. In addition, the decomposition analysis reveals the factors such as parental education and wealth status are significant contributors to the observed inequality. Moreover, different policy interventions, for rural and urban areas are suggested. There is the need to design public health, nutrition-based, interventions to overcome rural urban disparities through bridging gaps in educational endowments of rural and urban populations. Moreover, a balanced distribution of wealth might be helpful to reduce the rural-urban gap.     

WEALTH EFFECTS AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS

The effect of wealth on consumption is an issue of long‐standing interest to economists. Conventional wisdom suggests that fluctuations in household wealth have driven major swings in economic activity both in the United States and abroad. This paper considers the so‐called consumption wealth effects. There is an extensive existing literature on wealth effects that has yielded some insights. For example, research has documented the relationship between aggregate household wealth and aggregate consumption over time, and a large number of household‐level studies suggest that wealth effects are larger for households facing credit constraints. However, there are also many unresolved issues regarding the influence of household wealth on consumption. We review the most important of these issues and argue that there is a need for much more research in these areas as well as better data sources for conducting such analysis.     

Models of Quality‐Adjusted Life Years when Health Varies Over Time: Survey and Analysis

Abstract.  Quality‐adjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from time trade‐off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning the SG method as the gold standard for estimation of the health state index, re‐examining the role of the constant‐proportional trade‐off condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from discounting.     

Optimal portfolio choice and consistent performance

Consistent financial performance is the key element to success in asset management. We use a dynamic wealth constraint to represent the consistent performance requirement, which takes into account the entire historical records as a benchmark so that the wealth always stays at or above the benchmark. The optimal policy under this wealth constraint is characterized, and several implications are presented in this paper. This consistent performance constraint could be an appealing tool to be implemented in a volatile market and have rich practical implications.     

Assessing the Effect of Data Collection Mode on Measurement

This paper discusses the challenges in assessing the effects of mixed modes on measurement. We briefly review theories about why different modes of data collection can lead to differences in survey responses and statistical methods typically used to assess mode effects. We then discuss the challenges, including which mode effects are identified, how to test for mode effects, and whether these would affect substantive conclusions. The issues raised are illustrated with examples from the European Social Survey, which is conducting a programme of experimental research to inform decisions about whether to use mixed modes of data collection. The paper concludes with general implications for mixed modes research.