Research Subsidies, Population Control Policies, and Growth

Several R&D‐based growth models without scale effects claim that subsidies to R&D are not conductive for economic growth while a faster growing population is. Yet, in an effort to maintain high growth rates, most OECD countries continue to subsidize R&D, while several developing countries are trying to control the size of their population. Are these countries misguided? This study introduces an R&D‐based growth model that is characterized by complementarities between technology and human capital. The model is free of scale effects and consistent with the above‐mentioned policies. By applying the model to US data the study uncovers a possible explanation for the productivity slowdown.     

过度自信调节下董事会人力资本与企业R & D投入关系研究

结合资源依赖理论及冲突理论,以2013-2014年中国创业板149家企业为样本,运用回归分析法考察了董事会人力资本对企业R&D投入的影响,探讨了管理者过度自信在这一过程中的调节作用。结果显示：董事会人力资本广度与企业R&D投入强度显著负相关;②董事会人力资本深度与企业R&D投入强度显著正相关;③管理者过度自信对董事会人力资本深度和广度与企业R&D投入之间的关系皆具有显著的负向调节作用,即管理者过度自信程度越高,董事会人力资本深度对企业R&D投入的促进效用越小,其广度对企业R&D投入的消极作用越强。     

干中学、过度投资和R&D对人力资本积累的“侵蚀效应”

R&D的过度投资对人力资本积累具有"侵蚀效应"。本文提出了一个同时内生化技术进步和人力资本积累的经济增长模型,强调了R&D过程中的两种特征,即R&D过程需要人力资本投入和新技术的研发通过干中学获得,并就R&D对人力资本积累的"侵蚀效应"所造成的负外部性进行了分析。通过比较分散经济均衡和集中经济均衡,本文得出结论:垄断加价及其引致的物质资本和人力资本的过度投资与"侵蚀效应"相互交错、共同作用,会在一定程度上降低人力资本的积累率和经济增长率。     

Too Much of a Good Thing? The Quantitative Economics of R&D‐driven Growth Revisited

This article augments an R&D‐based growth model of the third generation with human capital accumulation and impure altruism, calibrates it with U.S. data, and investigates whether the market provides too little or too much R&D. For benchmark parameters, the market share of employment in R&D is close to the socially optimal solution. Sensitivity analysis shows that the order of magnitude of possible deviation between market R&D and optimal R&D is also smaller than suggested by previous studies. Small deviation of total research effort, however, can be compatible with large sectoral misallocations. Furthermore, the model allows for two additional channels through which population growth may affect the resource allocation so that its overall economic impact is no longer predetermined as positive. Numerical calibrations show that economic growth at the average rate in the U.S. over the last century can be consistent with a small and probably negative partial correlation between population growth and economic growth.     

PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION OF EDUCATION IN A R&D-BASED GROWTH MODEL

We develop a R&D‐based growth model with endogenous accumulation of human capital. We investigate the idea that education is a good entering in the preferences of individuals. We seek to analyse how the decisions of individuals to invest in human capital can be altered by changes in economic policies and how they can be reflected on the level of growth in the long run. We show that policy changes affect growth through their effect on the decision of individuals to invest in human capital. The effects obtained depend whether individuals enjoy to acquire education or if they consider it as a ‘bad’. In the absence of any policy intervention, the level of growth can be excessive or insufficient compared with the optimum.     

研发人力资本配置与技术创新——异质教育层次视角

在经济增长结构性减速和经济向高质量转型发展背景下，探讨研发人力资本有效配置对中国经济结构转型发展具有重要现实意义。基于中国2009-2018年省际面板数据，根据教育层次异质性，将研发人力资本细分为本科及以下、硕士与博士3种类型，运用静态和动态面板回归模型，从创新总量与细分创新类型视角分析不同教育层次研发人力资本作用于技术创新的差异化特征。统计分析和实证研究表明，中国地区不同教育层次研发人力资本配置不平衡，本科及以下研发人力资本占据主导地位，而本科及以下研发人力资本对地区技术创新具有一定抑制效应，硕士研发人力资本对地区技术创新具有显著正向作用，博士研发人力资本对地区技术创新没有呈现显著正面效应，且相比于硕士研发人力资本具有更低的创新产出弹性，在科研创新效率方面没有体现出预期的教育优势。研究结果对中国高层次人力资本在技术创新中的优化配置和经济结构转型发展具有积极的借鉴意义。     

中国省区TFP测算及影响因素分析

本文依据1998 -2007年中国28个省区的相关数据,采用修正索洛模型和随机前沿模型测算了中国省区历年的全要素生产率水平和增长率,并利用静态和动态面板数据模型检验了R&D、人力资本、进口、出口以及外商直接投资对我国省区全要素生产率的影响.结果显示,我国省区全要素生产率水平总体呈上升趋势,而增长率则趋于下降,并且地区差距明显.地区间R&D、出口、人力资本对我国省区全要素生产率水平的提高具有显著的正向作用,而外商直接投资和进口的正向作用并不明显;出口对中国省区全要素生产率增长率的提高有明显促进作用,而进口则对其具有明显的阻碍作用,R&D、人力资本及外商直接投资对全要素生产率增长率的提高虽有促进作用,但它们在静态和动态面板数据模型中的显著性则有所差异;另外,研究还发现,中国省区全要素生产率具有显著的“滞后效应”.     

基于随机前沿生产函数的我国主要省市人力资本与R＆D投资效率实证检验

人力资本和R&D投资一方面促进了经济增长,另一方面又增强了科研主体对外部技术的吸收能力,推动了知识与技术的扩散。本文基于随机前沿生产函数,利用1998—2007年中国29个省市共290个观测数据,通过引入人力资本和R&D投资两个参数,分析人力资本和R&D投资对生产力的直接影响和通过提高技术吸收能力对技术效率的间接影响。结果表明:人力资本在诠释地区间效率差异中扮演着极其重要的角色,它不仅直接影响生产力的提高,而且还通过提高技术吸收能力从而间接影响技术效率;R&D投资对技术效率有重要影响,而对生产力的直接影响并不强。     

INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION AND U.S. R&D SUBSIDIES: A QUANTITATIVE WELFARE ANALYSIS*

In the early 1970s U.S. firms were the uncontested world leaders in R&D investment in most manufacturing sectors. Later, led by Japan and Europe, foreign firms began to challenge American R&D leadership in many sectors of the economy. This period of increasing technological competition is contemporaneous with a substantial increase in U.S. R&D subsidies. What is the effect of the observed increase in international competition on U.S. welfare? How does foreign competition affect the optimal R&D subsidy in the United States, and, consequently, how far is this from the subsidy observed in the data? This article addresses these questions in a two‐country quality ladder growth model.     

不同来源金融资本对企业研发投入的影响研究

以中小板上市公司为样本,就不同来源金融资本对企业研发投入的影响进行了理论分析与实证检验。结果发现：①内源融资与企业研发投入正相关,高成长性企业表现尤为显著;②政府补助与企业研发投入正相关,资产负债率与企业研发投入负相关,且资产负债率负向调节政府补助与企业研发投入的正相关关系。企业应适度控制债权融资水平,提高企业研发投入动机,并有效发挥政府补助对研发投入的积极作用;③风险投资、外商直接投资与机构投资者对企业研发投入的影响不显著。     

Imperfect Capital Mobility and Local Government Behaviour in a Two‐Period Economy

One clear result in the tax competition literature is that, when head taxes on immobile residents are available, the optimal capital tax rate for local government is zero. However, zero tax rate, when resident taxes are available, is incompatible with the phenomenon actually observed. In most countries, local governments use capital taxes as policy variables for choosing a nonzero tax rate. This paper presents a model of a two‐period economy with imperfect mobile capital to explain the behaviour of local government providing capital subsidies on capital. It further examines an equilibrium tax rate where local government’s objectives include Niskanen‐type revenue‐maximizing.     

企业家职能配置、R&D与增长方式转变-以长江三角洲地区为例

本文以长江三角洲地区为例,论证了依赖于创新推动的增长方式是由企业家职能配置启动的,这取决于企业家职能对人力资本质量与研发投入的高水平要求,同时也受到资本、劳动力再配置条件与政府管制的影响。通过计量检验发现,实现长江三角洲经济增长方式转变目前已具备企业家职能配置与人力资本培育相互促进的机制,而研发支出与企业家职能配置之间的互动关系受地方政府的影响总体上还没有形成,这削弱了经济增长方式转变的研发支出基础。     

General training and oligopsony

I consider a duopsony model of a general skilled labour market. The source of the market power of the firms is the mobility cost of the workers. In the model general training is inefficient and the firms bear a share of the general training cost. If capital market imperfections prevent workers from investing in human capital, the imperfect competition in the skilled labour market compared with the perfect competition promotes general training. In order to remove the inefficiency of personnel training it is necessary to link together a minimum wage for skilled workers and loans to apprentices.     

Rural–Urban Migration,Substitutability of Human Capital and City Productivity: Evidence from China

Among the studies on the productivity effect of migration, the role of the substitutability of human capital between migrant workers and local workers has not received much attention. The elasticity of substitution is important for rural–urban migration in China, because there is a substantial difference in schooling quality between rural and urban regions and because there is imperfect competition in city labor markets. Using aggregate city‐level data from the 2010 China Population Census, we find that the positive effect of human capital on city productivity improves as the substitutability increases. Moreover, a grid‐search shows that the “best” estimate of the substitutability in China is between 2.1 and 2.5, far from being complete.     

R&D知识溢出对江苏城市创新绩效的空间计量经济分析

结合Griliches—Jaffe知识生产函数和Romer的内生增长理论,建立城市创新生产函数,对城市研发投入和人力资本、外部知识溢出在提高江苏城市创新绩效中的作用进行实证分析。实证结果表明:研发投入对城市创新具有非常显著的促进作用,人力资本对城市创新的作用没有发挥出来,外部知识溢出对城市创新具有比较显著的促进作用,并且空间邻近溢出效应对江苏城市创新产生了较为明显的促进作用。     

运动员人力资本投资风险分析及应用

本文从运动员人力资本投资风险的概念入手,根据运动员职业过程和人力资本投资的特征将运动员人力资本投资风险分为:职业选择阶段的风险、成长阶段的风险和再就业阶段风险.并以可持续生计理论、可行能力理论为基础构建了运动员人力资本投资风险形成及其规避分析的理论框架,论述了信息不完全、不完全竞争、委托代理、失业和社会保障等经典理论在运动员人力资本投资风险形成与规避分析中的运用.这一论述为深入剖析运动员人力资本投资风险问题奠定了基础,为进一步解决运动员群体的职业风险与保障问题提供了可借鉴的理论参考.     

科技型中小企业R&D投资、人力资本投资与企业成长路径的关系

基于科技型中小企业成长的特点,将人力资本与技术资本涵盖于知识资本的范畴,在动态演化的理论框架中,构建了影响科技型中小企业演化路径的指标体系,并首次运用混合截面数据对科技型中小企业知识资本与企业演化路径的关系进行了实证研究。研究表明：在满足一定条件下,人力资本与企业成长路径变迁之间呈正相关关系,其中,研发人员比例具有显著的经济意义。同时,R&D投入对企业倾向于跳跃式突变成长有显著的正向影响,而非R&D投入与其存在负相关关系,但在控制了行业特征之后,传统制造业R&D投入效果较高科技行业更为显著。这一结果从另一侧面说明了行业特征对企业演化路径和策略选择的重要性。另外,我国科技型中小企业在成长路径选择中不存在区域比较优势。     

Income Taxes,Subsidies to Education,and Investments in Human Capital

We study a two‐sector economy with investments in human and physical capital and imperfect labor markets. Investments are irreversible and noncontractible, due to random matching between firms and workers. Income is allocated according to the Nash bargaining mechanism. At equilibrium, given the distribution of the agents across sectors, there is underinvestment in both human and physical capital, due to the holdup problem generated by bargaining and noncontractibility. Self‐selection of the agents into the two sectors typically induces too many workers to invest in high skills. Compared to the constrained efficient allocation, at each equilibrium, there are too many people investing too little effort in the high‐skill sector. We also study the effects of several tax policies on total expected surplus.     

Distinguishing Between the Effects of Primary and Post-primary Education on Economic Growth

The paper follows Benhabib and Spiegel (Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 34, 1994:143–73) in examining the effect of human capital accumulation on economic growth. The paper is innovative in two ways. First, it takes the R&D‐based models more seriously. This delivers more structural specifications in which human capital affects growth as an input of final output and as a catalyst of technological innovation and imitation. Second, owing to data availability it is possible to disaggregate human capital and assign different roles to primary and post‐primary education. Regression estimates obtained from these alternative specifications suggest that the relative contribution of human capital to technology adoption and final output production vary by country wealth. More importantly, regression estimates suggest that primary education contributes mainly to production of final output, whereas post‐primary education contributes mainly to innovation and imitation of technology.     

粤港澳大湾区城市技术创新能力时空演化及影响因素研究——来自空间、门限面板数据模型的实证检验

为促进城市间协同融合发展，采用极差、变异系数、基尼系数和ESDA等方法考察粤港澳大湾区城市技术创新能力的时空演化特征及空间关联模式，并通过SPDM模型剖析影响城市技术创新能力的关键因素，结合门限面板模型进一步探讨在经济发展水平门限效应下，核心创新要素对城市技术创新能力的影响。结果显示：①城市技术创新能力总体呈上升趋势，2014年后增速加快，各城市技术创新能力均衡发展；②城市技术创新能力“中心—外围”特征明显，“中心”城市位于区域东南部沿珠江口东岸地带，空间关联模式主要表现为H-H型和L-L型；③人力资本、研发经费投入对城市技术创新能力具有显著促进作用，但人力资本的溢出效应显著为负，研发经费投入的负向溢出效应不明显；④在经济发展水平的单一门限效应下，人力资本对城市技术创新能力的影响先升后降，研发经费投入对城市技术创新能力的促进作用随着城市经济发展水平越过门槛值而不再显著。