知识产权保护与贸易开放度对外资引进的影响

随着经济开放力度的增大,我国成为外商直接投资主要的流入国,但大量外资在进入我国后,如何提高外资的质量成为社会关注的焦点.基于2000-2018年的省域面板数据,本文运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验及建立回归模型的方法,对国内的贸易开放度和知识产权保护对我国外资流入的影响进行实证研究.结果 发现,贸易开放度对外商直接投资力度具有促进作用,知识产权保护对外商直接投资有显著的正向作用,且二者的协同作用有助于外资的引进.通过对上述三者间作用机制的探讨,发现合理有效地利用外资依赖于适宜的知识产权保护及贸易开放度.     

HOW DOES GLOBALIZATION AFFECT INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS?

Industrial competitiveness (IC), reflecting a country's ability to produce and export manufactures competitively, is closely associated with economic growth. How does globalization affect IC? While the topic is of great importance, empirical studies on the issue in the literature have been limited. This article attempts to close the gap by estimating the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade with cross‐country data in 1985 and 1998. Taking advantage of a recently constructed IC index, we estimate several regression models of effects of FDI and trade on industrial performance. Results suggest that FDI and trade have a positive impact on IC, and increasing integration with the world economy through FDI and trade contributes to better industrial performance. (JEL F02, F10, F21, L60)     

Trade Intermediation and the Organization of Exporters

Empirical papers show that successful exporting firms either use unaffiliated foreign trade intermediaries or own foreign wholesale subsidiaries. However, conventional trade theory models assume that producers can directly access foreign consumers. We introduce intermediaries in an international trade model where producers differ with respect to productivity as well as regarding their varieties' perceived quality and tradability. Trade intermediation is prone to frictions owing to the absence of enforceable cross‐country contracts while own wholesale subsidiaries require additional capital investment. The sorting pattern of firms depends on their degree of competitive advantage; the equilibrium prevalence of intermediation in the industry depends negatively on the heterogeneity among producers, and the market‐specificity of goods, and positively on expropriation risk. Using sectoral US export data by destination country, we confirm the empirical validity of these predictions.     

A multivariate cointegrated model testing for temporal causality between exports and outward foreign investment: the Spanish case

Historically, outward foreign direct investment has been contemplated as an alternative way of firms' internationalization. In this line, a relational substitution between exports and foreign direct investment would be expected. However, this seems to contrast with recent developments in the ‘new trade theory’ which show that the volume of trade and the emergence of multinational firms may be positively related one to the other. This paper investigates if some empirical evidence exists either supporting a substitution or a complementary relationship between both forms of internationalization. With this aim, an aggregate time series approach was adopted using quarterly aggregate data (seasonal adjusted) from the Spanish economy covering the period 1970.I–1992.III. A vector autoregressive model was employed for both multivariate cointegration analysis and Granger temporal causality testing. The strength and direction of causal relationships are shown through the dynamic variance decomposition and the impulse response technique. Once controlling for relative market size and prices, the results provide evidence of a positive long-term Granger causality going from foreign direct investment to exports, although not in the opposite direction.     

Location Choice of Multinational and Local Firms in Vietnam: Birds of a Feather Flock Together?

Vietnam enacted the Enterprises Act in 1999, leading to a sharp increase in the number of registered enterprises. Meanwhile, foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country continued to increase in the 2000s. Thus, this paper examines the location choice of multinational and local firms in Vietnam. We adopt the mixed logit model to conduct an empirical analysis of the possible interaction of neighbouring regions and attracting FDI. Using firm‐level data for the period 2000–2005, the results show that most provincial characteristics exert similar influences on foreign and domestic entrants, except for wage rates, which exhibit an opposing effect. The agglomeration of FDI entices foreign and domestic firms to locate in the same region, whereas the agglomeration of local firms is less relevant to the location choice of all firms. The spatial interdependence effect of attracting investment is particularly relevant to local entrants. Provinces with more foreign (domestic) firms reveal a complementary (competition) effect on the attractiveness of their neighbouring provinces.     

The macroeconomic impact of foreign labour influx into the industrialized nation state and the complementary policies

This paper makes a numerical assessment on the macroeconomic impact of foreign labor influx into the industrialized nation state allowing free trade in goods but imposing an immigration quota on labor, and then explores the complementary policies for the impact of foreign labor influx. One of the main findings is that immigration itself brings welfare gains only if prices are flexible, but a skill-biased intake policy can bring a much larger welfare gain. The complementary policy options to boost welfare gains by immigration increase are monetary expansion, adopting foreign components more, and influencing foreign demand for intermediate goods indirectly by inviting foreign direct investment. For these policies to cope, the destination country should try to correct the market structure so that prices can be flexible.     

对外贸易、进出口商品结构与我国城乡收入差距

笔者利用1978年～2008年期间的数据,对我国对外贸易和进出口商品结构对城乡收入差距的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:对外贸易是影响我国城乡收入差距的重要因素;对外贸易总额、进口和出口对我国城乡收入差距的影响都表现为倒U型,符合库兹涅兹假说。目前,对外贸易总额、进口、出口与我国城乡收入差距的关系都表现为正相关,处于拐点之前;综合考虑直接影响和间接影响,出口商品结构优化缩小城乡收入差距的作用小于进口商品结构优化拉大城乡收入差距的作用,进出口商品结构优化的总效应表现为拉大城乡收入差距。因此,我国应该继续大力发展对外贸易,扩大进出口贸易规模,优化出口商品结构,以期实现对外贸易缩小城乡收入差距的新局面。     

国际化路径、技术创新与区域中小企业成长——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

利用2011-2015年中国省域层面的中小企业相关数据,构建了静态面板数据模型和动态面板数据模型,研究了中国区域中小企业的两条国际化路径(对外贸易和对外直接投资)对中小企业成长的影响,并探析了中小企业技术创新在对外贸易和对外直接投资影响中小企业成长过程中的中介作用。实证结果显示:中小企业对外贸易对中小企业成长具有显著的正向影响;中小企业对外直接投资对中小企业成长具有显著的负向影响;中小企业技术创新在中小企业国际化路径影响企业成长的过程中起中介作用。     

Interdependence in multinational production networks

Abstract Most multinational firms today operate multilateral production networks. Most existing empirical analyses, however, have focused on firms’ choice between producing at home and investing overseas. This paper uses detailed French multinational subsidiary data to examine the effect of existing production networks on multinationals’ entry decisions. The paper finds strong horizontal and vertical interdependence across multinationals’ foreign production locations, but little interdependence between home and foreign production when third‐country effects are taken into account. This result constitutes a sharp contrast to the conventional emphasis and highlights the importance of investigating foreign direct investment in the context of multinational production networks.     

The Cyclical Behavior of Net Exports: Temporary and Persistent Movements

This paper explores the empirical relationship of net exports, domestic output, and foreign output. It presents evidence supporting a consumption-smoothing motive for trade in goods. Classical models of the international macroeconomy typically allow for trade in claims on both home and foreign output. This paper lends empirical support to this setup by showing that highly transitory shocks to output cause net exports from the country experiencing the shock to rise. Persistent shocks have opposite effects—a result consistent with the role persistent shocks play in signaling future investment opportunities.     

Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities

This paper studies how the effect of trade openness on economic growth may depend on complementary reforms that help a country take advantage of international competition. This issue is illustrated with a simple Harris–Todaro model where welfare gains after trade openness depend on the degree of labor market flexibility. The paper then presents cross-country, panel-data evidence on how the growth effect of openness may depend on a variety of structural characteristics. For this purpose, the empirical section uses a non-linear growth regression specification that interacts a proxy of trade openness with proxies of educational investment, financial depth, inflation stabilization, public infrastructure, governance, labor market flexibility, ease of firm entry, and ease of firm exit. The paper concludes that the growth effects of openness may be significantly improved if certain complementary reforms are undertaken.     

外贸政策对外商直接投资溢出效应的影响

"巴格瓦蒂假说"表明,外商直接投资的"溢出效应"不是自然产生的,"溢出效应"是否产生以及"溢出效应"的大小取决于东道国一定的经济环境,其中一个重要因素是东道国的外贸政策.本文利用中国1982～2003年的年度序列数据进行实证分析,结果表明我国外贸政策体制对外商直接投资的溢出效应产生不利的影响.其原因是我国外贸政策体制是以重商主义的"出口创汇"思想为基本指导原则的,这使我国的外贸政策仍属于一种保护型政策,因而不利于外商在华投资溢出效应的发挥.     

The Differential Impact of Public and Private Governance Institutions on the Different Modes of Foreign Investment

This paper examines the respective impacts of public and private governance institutions on foreign direct and foreign portfolio investment inflows. We present two hypotheses: (1) there is a strong correlation between the quality of a country’s public governance institutions and the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) received while the quality of its private governance institutions has no further discernible impact on this correlation; (2) there is a strong correlation between the quality of a country’s public governance institutions and the amount of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) received while the quality of its private governance institutions has a further positive impact on this correlation. Our findings, which are based on panel data analysis, show both hypotheses to be valid.     

FDI Policy,Greenfield Investment and Cross‐border Mergers

This paper examines a multinational's choice between greenfield investment and cross‐border merger when it enters another country via foreign direct investment (FDI) and faces the host country's FDI policy. Greenfield investment incurs a fixed plant setup cost, whereas the foreign firm obtains only a share of the joint profit from a cross‐border merger under the restriction of the FDI policy. This trade‐off is affected by market demand, cost differential, and market competition, among other things. The host country's government chooses its FDI policy to affect (or alter) the multinational's entry mode to achieve the maximum social welfare for the domestic country. We characterize the conditions shaping the optimal FDI policy and offer intuitions on FDI patterns in developing and developed countries.     

Empirical studies on the relationship between public and private investment and GDP growth

This study performs empirical studies on the interaction between public and private investment and GDP growth for Japan and the USA. Since the data for each country used show features that are quite different from each other, empirical methods of GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) and OLS (Ordinary Least squares) are accordingly applied to Japan and the USA, respectively. The empirical results suggest that both public and private investment make great contributions to Japanese economic growth, while the US private investment seems to play a much more significant role than public investment.     

外商直接投资、区域创新与城市化发展研究

基于2000—2017年省际面板数据,运用静态面板与门限面板模型,通过建立以政府干预、市场化进程为门限变量的回归模型,实证分析了外商直接投资与区域创新对我国城市化发展的影响。研究结果表明:外商直接投资、区域创新对城市化发展有积极的带动作用,同时,外商直接投资对区域创新的作用由替代效应向互补效应转变;政府干预对外商直接投资存在双重门限效应,对区域创新存在单一门限效应;市场化对外商直接投资存在单一门限效应,但对区域创新存在双重门限效应。基于以上结论,进一步提出促进城市化发展的建议。     

出口贸易、教育投入与经济增长:理论模型与经验证据

笔者借鉴获得性技能模型思想,研究教育投入通过影响外贸发展间接影响经济增长的路径,并重点考察两者对经济增长的联合影响机制.利用2004年～2009年31个省市数据进行实证分析,结果表明:教育投入对经济增长的边际影响为负且教育行业投入与出口贸易对经济增长的联合影响正向显著.可见教育投入对经济增长的直接促进作用,远远小于其通过促进外贸发展间接促进经济增长的作用.     

International Integration and Growth: A Survey and Empirical Investigation

The authors attempt a comprehensive assessment of different forms of international integration on growth. In particular, the paper considers the impact of trade flows, of inward foreign direct investment, of preferential treatment of less-developed countries, and of membership in trade blocs. Results confirm that general openness and foreign direct investment into a country do lead to increased growth; that membership in a trade bloc facilitates growth; and that the variation in income in the trade bloc also encourages more rapid growth among member countries.     

对外开放与中国经济增长关系的实证研究

Based on an adjusted Solow economic growth model, using econometric tools such as cointegration test and Granger causality test, taking the economic factors such as foreign trade and foreign investment into account, this paper makes regression analysis on the effect of economic opening on China’s economic growth by using the data from 1985 to 2004. The analysis indicates that the domestic capital input is still the primary element that promotes China’s economic growth, by contrast, the effect of foreign trade and foreign investment is faint. It is a bidirectional causality between foreign trade and economic growth, and the adjusting velocity of trade is larger than the foreign direct investment on the balance of the China’s long-time economic growth.      

Information-eliciting compensation schemes

This paper examines the implications of the ‘residence’ approach to taxing foreign source income such as employed by the United States. It is argued that, because the repatriation of earnings to the home country investor and not the earnings themselves are typically the source of tax liability, the foreign source income tax should affect foreign investment differently depending on the required transfers of funds within the firm.One implication of viewing the tax in this way is that in order to maximize after-tax profits, a firm should finance its foreign investment out of foreign earnings to the greatest extent possible. That is, a firm's required foreign return jumps at the point at which desired foreign investment just exhausts foreign earnings. This allows us to draw a distinction between ‘mature’ foreign operations, which are at any point in time financed at the margin by investing earnings (and perhaps also pay dividends to their parent firm in the home country), and ‘immature’ foreign affiliates, which rely on funding from their parents (and should not be paying dividends). It is noted that survey evidence on multinational firm behavior is consistent with this distinction. Direct investment data indicate that mature foreign operations probably account for nearly 90 percent of U.S. foreign direct investment.The discussion then turns to investment incentives. It is shown that the home country's rate of tax on foreign source income and the presence or absence of a foreign tax credit should be irrelevant to a mature foreign operations's investment and dividend decisions. This conclusion, which conflicts sharply with the conventional wisdom, follows because the home country tax acts as an unavoidable cost. New firms' investment decisions are, on the other hand, influenced by home country taxes.