APPROACHES TO PRICE FORMATION IN FINANCIALIZED COMMODITY MARKETS

A recent debate about the financialization of commodity markets has stimulated the development of new approaches to price formation which incorporate index traders as a new trader category. I survey these new approaches by retracing their emergence to traditional price formation models and show that they arise from a synthesis between commodity arbitrage pricing and behavioural pricing theories in the tradition of Keynesian inspired hedging pressure models. Based on these insights, I derive testable hypotheses and provide guidance for a growing literature that seeks to empirically evaluate the effects of index traders on price discovery in commodity futures markets.     

Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs

In this paper, we examine the properties of prediction market prices when risk averse traders have heterogeneous beliefs in state probabilities. We show that the equilibrium state prices equal the mean beliefs of traders about that state if and only if the traders’ common utility function is logarithmic. We also provide a necessary and sufficient condition ensuring that the state prices are systematically below or above the mean beliefs of traders, thus providing a rational explanation to the favorite-longshot bias in prediction markets.     

Estimating heterogeneous agents behavior in a two-market financial system

In this paper, we propose a two-market empirical model with heterogeneous agents based on Chiarella et al. (J Econ Behav Organ 83(3):446–460, 2012). Using monthly data of French and US stock markets, the regression shows that individual markets have features of a two-regime switching process. By including inter-market traders whose trading decision is based on fundamental value of foreign market, the two-market model has a better capability in explaining both markets with domestic fundamental traders turning to be significant. The existence of inter-market traders implies that the two markets impact each other through their fundamentals and hence share some common set of factors, which provides foundation of market interactions, such as market co-movement.     

Financially constrained arbitrage in illiquid markets

This article analyzes trading strategies when arbitrageurs impact prices. Trades of financially constrained arbitrageurs are feedback functions of their capital, which depends on the amount traded. A component of arbitrage trading ensures financial flexibility. This hedging component explains why price deviations persist in spite of arbitrage. Financial constraints are responsible for volatile prices and for time variation in the correlations of prices across markets. Distortions arise when regulated firms can influence the dynamics of prices on which capital requirements are based. Under current value at risk (VaR) measures, large traders behave aggressively and have a cost advantage relative to other traders.     

On the ingredients for bubble formation: Informed traders and communication

Bubbles in asset markets have been documented in numerous experiments. Most experiments in which bubbles occur feature a declining fundamental value. This feature has been criticized for being atypical of real financial markets. Here, we experimentally study other ingredients for bubble formation that are common in such markets, namely the existence of inside information and communication among traders. We find that bubbles and mirages can occur if these additional ingredients are present. In particular, the mere possibility that some traders are better informed than others can create bubbles. Surprisingly, communication turns out to be counterproductive for bubble formation.     

International trade and hedging in economies in transition

This paper develops a general equilibrium framework to analyze risk management policies in economies in transition. By cross-hedging against real exchange rate risk exposures, these economies can increase their gains from international trade. We suggest that countries with emerging forward markets can gradually introduce the risk sharing markets, as limiting resources may prevent them from introducing complete hedging markets in the first place. Thus the growing demand for risk management instruments can be gradually met and it would be welfare enhancing. Economies in transition benefit when hedging devices are offered by financial markets, irrespective of whether the hedging instruments are de facto perfect or not.     

Heterogeneous Traders,the Leverage Effect and Volatility of the Chinese P2P Market

The new financial industry represented by peer-to-peer lending has gradually become a new source of volatility due to the increasing complexity of the Chinese financial market. This volatility leads to greater risk to P2P investors and has become the focus of the regulatory authorities in China. Based on the background data of the P2P platform, Honglingchuangtou, we use the factor analysis method to construct a platform volatility (PV) index and we construct an HAR model to study the heterogeneous traders and leverage effect in the Chinese P2P market. The empirical results show that there are both short-term and long-term heterogeneous traders in the Chinese P2P market and that long-term traders have the greatest impact on market volatility. Similar to traditional financial markets, the volatility of the P2P market also shows a leverage effect, which means that the negative volatility of trader actions should have a negative impact on market fluctuations. With regard to the leverage effect, the LHAR-PV model is superior because of a higher goodness of fit and a lower prediction error.     

A vector-autoregression analysis of credit and liquidity factor dynamics in US LIBOR and Euribor swap markets

We use a vector autoregressive approach to investigate the determinants of US Dollar LIBOR and Euribor swap spread variation during the 2007–2009 crisis in global credit and money markets. Using market-quoted yield and spread data from the highly liquid credit default swap (CDS) and overnight index swap (OIS) markets, we provide compelling empirical evidence that liquidity risk factor shocks have been the dominant drivers of the variation in swap spreads over this period. Our findings provide an explanation for the temporal differences that liquidity shocks have on swap spreads and provide a contemporary perspective on the dynamical interplay between credit-default and liquidity risk-factors in these markets. As all our risk-factor proxies are traded in liquid derivatives markets, our findings have implications for proprietary hedge fund traders hedging an exposure to swap-spread risk, for bank treasurers managing their liquidity requirements and for central bankers seeking to better understand the response of markets to their macroeconomic policy implementation and liquidity management actions. Indeed our markets-based analysis suggests that the European Central Bank (ECB) has underperformed relative to the Federal Reserve in terms of the differing levels of market confidence placed in its macroeconomic policy actions and remedial liquidity interventions during the period.     

Information interaction,behavioral synchronization and asset market volatility

This paper focuses on the synchronization of trading behavior caused by interactions among traders. The study begins with an agent-based model in which most agents make investment decisions based on three types of information (neighbor, public and private information) according to their heterogeneous personal preferences. Considering the influence of the social relationship network in reality, traders in our model are connected by a complex network. We use four different types of networks. The simulated results of this model reproduce several stylized facts about the asset market. Simulated results show that when preference of traders for neighbor information increases, the level of trust among traders will gradually increase and then there will be a “leap” at a certain point. The mutual trust among traders is achieved through coupling effect in the network. Moreover, with the frequent synchronization of traders’ behavior, extreme phenomena in financial markets will emerge. In addition, our numerical simulations show that when the average degree of network is higher, behavioral synchronization will emerge at a lower level of dependence on neighbor information. The degree distribution of the network will also have a significant influence on the convergence processes of behavioral synchronization. The more heterogeneous the degree distribution is, the easier the behavioral synchronization process will occur. In our simulations, the mode of agent behavior expectation will also enhance the effect of network structure to behavioral synchronization. Finally, this paper affirms the important role of public information and learning mechanism (expectation formation mode) in the process of behavioral synchronization.     

Noise Trading and the Management of Operational Risk; Firms,Traders and Irrationality in Financial Markets*

abstract Efficient market models cannot explain the high level of trading in financial markets in terms of asset portfolio adjustment. It is presumed that much of this excessive trading is irrational ‘noise’ trading. A corollary is that there must either be irrational traders in the market or rational traders with irrational aberrations. The paper reviews the various attempts to explain noise trading in the finance literature, concluding that the persistence of irrationality is not well explained. Data from a study of 118 traders in four large investment banks are presented to advance reasons why traders might seek to trade more frequently than financial models predict. The argument is advanced that trades do not simply occur in order to generate profit, but it does not follow that such trading is irrational. Trading may generate information, accelerate learning, create commitments and enhance social capital, all of which sustain traders' long term survival in the market. The paper treats noise trading as a form of operational risk facing firms operating in financial markets and discusses approaches to the management of such risk.     

Learning,information processing and order submission in limit order markets

By introducing a genetic algorithm learning with a classifier system into a limit order market, this paper provides a unified framework of microstructure and agent-based models of limit order markets that allows traders to determine their order submission endogenously according to market conditions. It examines how traders process and learn from market information and how the learning affects limit order markets. It is found that, measured by the average usage of different group of market information, trading rules under the learning become stationary in the long run. Also informed traders pay more attention to the last transaction sign while uninformed traders pay more attention to technical rules. Learning of uninformed traders improves market information efficiency, but not necessarily when informed traders learn. Opposite to the learning of informed traders, learning makes uninformed traders submit less aggressive limit orders and more market orders. Furthermore private values can have significant impact in the short run, but not in the long run. One implication is that the probability of informed trading (PIN) is positively related to the volatility and the bid-ask spread.     

Modelling contagion of financial crises

Inspired by the empirical findings, we include international traders to capture linkage between markets and propose a two-market heterogeneous agents model to simulate financial crisis with contagion effect. This paper manages to calibrate sudden crash behavior of US and UK stock markets during “Black Monday” of 1987 besides smooth crisis and disturbing crisis categorized in literature. It is implied that financial crisis and its contagion could be endogenous, which supports a scenario of over-valuation causing a financial crisis. In addition, the model shows that financial system could be fragile in which small shock(s) hitting individual market’s fundamental could cause financial crisis spreading to the other market. This also supports a scenario of external shock triggering a financial crisis. Lastly, to demonstrate the relevance of our model to financial markets, we manage to match typical stylized facts, especially cross-correlation which is exclusive to a multiple-market case.     

‘ALL EYES ON ME’: The (In)Formal Barriers to Market Trade in Europe

Studies of marketplaces in the global North have often conceptualized markets as important public spaces of social encounter and conviviality where visitors, regardless of race, age, class or gender, feel they have an equal right to be. Yet comparatively little has been written about how inclusive European marketplaces are for the traders who (want to) work there. In this article we argue that the common conception of marketplaces as accessible to everyone, and as vehicles of socioeconomic mobility, is oversimplistic and romanticized. We draw on empirical data from marketplaces in four European countries to focus on the more or less informal ways in which markets are regulated by managers and traders themselves, and on the exclusionary and inclusionary effects of this process that may ultimately determine traders’ access to and success in these markets. This article not only challenges dominant conceptions of marketplaces as accessible and inclusive, but also addresses prevalent stereotypes about economic practices in the global North and assumptions about the ways in which these differ from practices in the global South.     

The Use of Forward Contracts for Hedging Currency Risk

This paper derives an optimal rule for hedging currency risk in a general utility framework. Ex ante hedging performance of the forward markets is examined using the optimal hedge ratio derived from the utility model and an optimal rule derived from another model (excess return per unit risk) suggested in the hedging literature. Results of this study indicate a naive (one-to-one) hedge performs similarly to the optimal hedge ratios under either model. An implication of this study is that financial managers of multinational firms should simply follow a one-to-one rule when hedging foreign exchange risk in the forward markets.     

The stock–bond comovements and cross-market trading

We propose an asset pricing model with heterogeneous agents allocating capital to the stock and bond markets to optimize their portfolios, utilizing the dynamic interaction between the two markets. While some agents focus on the stock market and have more expertise in it, the others specialize in the bond market. Based on their comparative advantages in a particular market, heterogeneous agents constantly revise their investment portfolios by taking into account the time-varying stock–bond return comovements and the changing market conditions. Agents׳ collective investment behavior shapes the stock–bond interlinkage, which feedbacks on their subsequent capital allocations. Using monthly US stock and bond data from January 1990 to June 2014, we estimate the vector autoregression model with threshold and Markov switching mechanisms. We find evidence in support of flight-to-quality and show that it is mainly driven by the technical traders who actively sell stocks and buy bonds during periods of high market uncertainty.     

Heterogeneous beliefs in over-the-counter markets

The behavior and stability of over-the-counter markets is of central concern to regulators. Little is known, however, about how the structure of these markets determine their properties. In this paper we consider an over-the-counter market populated by boundedly rational heterogeneous traders in which the structure is represented by a network. Stability is found to decrease as the market becomes less well connected, however, the configuration of connections has a significant effect. The presence of hubs, such as those found in scale free networks increases stability and decreases volatility whilst small-world short-cut links have the opposite effect. Volatility in the fundamental value increases market volatility, however, volatility in the riskless asset returns has an ambiguous effect.     

Adverse effects of leverage and short-selling constraints in a financial market model with heterogeneous agents

This paper investigates the impact of leverage and short-selling constraints on financial market stability. Investors׳ demand is modelled in a well-known asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs. In particular, I generalise the heterogeneous agents model of Brock and Hommes (1998) and Anufriev and Tuinstra (2013) to allow for leverage constraints as well as a short-selling tax. I consider two examples of adaptive belief systems describing the coevolution of prices and investors׳ beliefs. First, if the market is inhabited by fundamentalist and chartist traders, demand constraints have potential adverse effects and may restrict the stabilising fundamentalist strategy such that mispricing and price volatility increase. Second, if the market is inhabited by fundamentalists, optimists and pessimists with fixed beliefs, demand constraints drive down price volatility, but mispricing remains. The results suggest the stabilising effects of demand constraints in financial markets are limited. Only if asset prices are too high compared to fundamentals, policy makers should consider constraining leverage ratios in order to deflate financial bubbles.     

When are prediction market prices most informative?

Prediction markets are a popular platform for the elicitation of incentivised crowd predictions. This paper examines the variation in the information contained in prediction market prices by studying Intrade prices on U.S. elections around the release of opinion polls. We find that poll releases stimulate an immediate uptick in trading activity. However, much of this activity involves relatively inexperienced traders, meaning that the price efficiency declines in the immediate aftermath of a poll release, and does not recover until more experienced traders enter the market in the following hours. More generally, this suggests that information releases do not necessarily improve prediction market forecasts, but instead may attract noise traders who temporarily reduce the price efficiency.     

Input Hedging,Output Hedging,and Market Power

We argue that commodity input hedging is different from commodity output hedging. Output hedging can be detrimental to “sector play.” Furthermore, firms with market power that hedge outputs have incentives to over‐produce and distort market prices. In rational markets, such hedging will be expensive and we expect to see a negative relationship between hedging and market power in “output industries” but not in “input industries.” We test these predictions on a sample of S&P500 firms from 2001 to 2005. Our results support both hypotheses. Placebo tests show that the same empirical regularities do not apply to currency hedging. Finally, our empirical framework, which differentiates between hedging inputs and hedging outputs, can also help in reconciling conflicting results in prior studies.     

Dynamic spillover and connectedness between oil futures and European bonds

This paper examines the spillovers and connectedness between crude oil futures and European bond markets (EBMs) having different maturities. We also analyze the hedging effectiveness of crude oil futures-bond portfolios in tranquil and turbulent periods. Using the spillovers index of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014), we show evidence of time-varying spillovers between markets under investigations, which varies between 65% and 83%. Moreover, three-month, six-month, one-year, three-year and thirty-year bonds and crude oil futures are net receivers of risk from other markets, whereas the remaining bonds are net contributors of risk to the other markets. Crude oil futures receive more risk from long-term than short-term bonds. Moreover, the magnitude of risk transmission is low for the pre-crisis and economic recovery periods. Crude oil futures market contributes significantly to the risk of other markets during the oil crisis and Brexit period. A portfolio risk analysis shows that that most investments should be in oil rather than bonds (except the short-term bonds). The hedge ratio is sensitive to market conditions, where the cost of hedging increases during GFC and ESDC period. Finally, a crude oil futures-bond portfolio offers the best hedging effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic period.