ROBERT J. GORDON'S CONCEPT OF CAPITAL

Estimates of capital stock normally equate different models of capital goods by their production costs at a base date (a concept known as method 1 or K ), not by their current marginal products (method 3, or J ). Some economists advocate that, instead, different models be equated by the base-date costs of providing characteristics of the goods, not of the goods themselves. The characteristics selected have, however, excluded the amounts of other inputs used in the production to which the good is devoted. Hence the method does not equate capital goods by their marginal products but instead by the gross products of the capital goods together with various amounts of associated inputs. Gordon recognizes this defect and believes he has remedied it empirically, but the steps he takes are too slight to support this view. It remains impractical to construct estimates that equate goods by their marginal products.     

On investment and exchange-rate movements

We investigate the ways in which permanent exchange-rate changes may affect investment by influencing domestic and foreign revenue, the cost of imported variable inputs and the investment price of imported capital goods. We find that the revenue and investment-price channels have a quantitatively greater effect on investment than the cost channel. The negative effect of the revenue channel, which affects the marginal profitability of capital, outweighs the positive effect of the investment-price channel, which affects the marginal cost of capital, implying that exchange-rate appreciation has a net negative influence on investment. The estimation results are robust to different approaches to extracting the permanent components of exchange rates.     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

The domestic content of imports and the foreign content of exports

When a country imports goods that have been assembled abroad, some amount of the labor and capital services embodied in those goods may originally be from the country that is now importing them. Similarly, some of the value added of a country's exports may be foreign in origin. For the median country in my sample of 14, I calculate that 21.5% of imported labor services are domestic labor, 17.7% of imported capital services are domestic capital, 12.3% of exported labor services are foreign labor, and 23.3% of exported capital services are foreign capital.     

Regulation through a revenue contest

This paper proposes a mechanism for the regulation of duopolies a revenue contests among the firms. Under the mechanism, the firm with the lower revenue is to pay a penalty to the firm with the higher revenue proportional to the difference between their revenues. In a homogenous good Cournot duopoly with convex cost and demand functions, the mechanism implements the optimal outcome when the firms have symmetric costs. When one firm is more efficient, the mechanism leads to increased social surplus under a large set of parameters. We also consider extensions that involve cost uncertainty, repeated games and differentiated goods.     

Measuring embodied technical change in the US local telephone industry

This study attempts to measure the rate of embodied technical change by using a short-run variable cost function that contains arguments for labour and capital quality. In this short-run variable cost model, the expansion of the amount of physical capital increases variable costs due to more maintenance outlays, and then it leads to improvements in capital quality. When a measure of competition is included as a proxy for organizational efficiency, improvements in labour and capital quality explain more than two-thirds of productivity growth. The degree of returns to scale and the shadow cost of capital input in the embodiment cost model are presented as well. The study is based on pooled time-series and cross-section data of eight US local exchange carriers.     

A requiem for the Australian motor vehicle industry

The last automobiles manufactured in Australia rolled off the assembly line in the fall of 2017. This article looks at some of the factors that have impacted the industry since 1968 and led to its demise, including a high value of the Australian dollar in recent years, strategic decisions on the part of parent companies and reductions in governmental support and tariff protection. We estimate a cost function for the industry with inputs of domestic capital and labour and insourced intermediate goods as well as imported intermediate goods. The findings include that the remaining firms are operating in an output range of strongly statistically significant economies of scale, and that all of the input pairs are substitutes except for statistically significant complementary relationships between capital and domestic intermediate goods and labour and foreign intermediate goods. Unexpected results are that an increase in output per assembly plant appears to have a positive effect on total cost, while an increase in the effective tariff and an increase in the number of models appears to have a negative effect. One explanation for these robust but unexpected findings may be that total profit contribution is a part of total cost, and, therefore, factors that increase total profit contribution will also increase total cost.     

Voting and paying for public goods: An application of the theory of the core

Let any coalition with a majority of all voters have the power to choose the quantities of public goods. Under Rule I a majority coalition bears a cost of its decision that is proportional to its size. Under Rule II it must bear the whole cost of its decision. Thus, Rule I imposes costs on minorities although they have no power to choose the quantities of public goods while Rule II allows goods to have some attributes of semiprivate goods. It is shown that a nonempty core under Rule I implies a nonempty core under Rule II, but not conversely. Necessary and sufficient conditions in terms of the properties of the von Neumann-Morgenstern characteristic function are given.     

On the importance of the embodiment of technology effect: A comment on Denison's growth accounting methodology

Denison has presented a powerful set of arguments as to why technology embodiment is not important. While his argument that embodiment does not appreciably raise the rate of return of new investment is correct, it leaves out the effect of obsolescence on measurement of the rate of return on all investment. Correctly handled, adjustment for obsolescence raises the estimated contribution of investment to growth. His calculations of the effect of new investment on average age ignore the increased retirement of old capital caused by new investment.     

DEPRECIATION, OBSOLESCENCE AND THE ROLE OF CAPITAL IN GROWTH ACCOUNTING

Maurice Scott has argued that the neoclassical production function and growth accounting are fundamentally flawed as tools for understanding the growth process. If the role of capital were correctly evaluated, then (he argues) the famous 'residual' of growth accounting would disappear. Contrary to these claims, this paper seeks to show that growth accounting gives correct answers to interesting questions, even when all technical progress is embodied in new capital goods and even when depreciation is entirely due to obsolescence.     

Dynamic adjustment of supply under Buyers' forced substitution

This paper presents a dynamic version of the static model analysed in Chapter 8 of Kornai (1980). A multi-commodity model is considered, where global excess supply prevails but excess demand persists for certain goods. It is assumed that the goods are storable, and the buyer purchases more than his demand fornon-shortage goods (he makes forced substitution) to satisfy his global demand.This paper investigates the seller's adjustment process and presents alternative assumptions for the supply, the demand, and the allocation rule under which the shortage disappears in a finite period of time.My indebtedness to J. Kornai is multi-sided: it was he, who formalized the theory: it was he, who created the underlying static model, finally the idea of the dynamic analysis is also due to him. I express my obligations to J. Kornai, B. Martos and an anonymous referee for their comments on an earlier version of my paper. Of course, I am alone responsible for any shortcomings of the model.     

The Real Cost of Financial Capital in the United States,Japan and Korea: Comparison and Convergence Tests

This paper presents alternative measures of the real cost of financial capital in the United States, Japan, and Korea over the 1975-90 period. Japan's cost of financial capital was the lowest among the three countries studied. The U.S. real cost of financial capital was higher than the Korean real cost. Our statistical analyses provide some evidence for shrinking the gap in the real financial costs of Japan and Korea vis a vis the United States. This is the reflection of increasing goods market integration and financial liberalization occurring in Japan and Korea. [F36, G15]     

IT adoption costs and productivity:: A reply to Diego Comin

Diego Comin (2002, Review of Economic Dynamics 5 (2)), critiques my paper “Technology adoption costs and productivity growth: The transition to information technology” (2002, Review of Economic Dynamics 5 (2)), concluding that all of my major results are unfounded. I contend, to the contrary, that my results hold up against his criticism. My paper analyzes the effect of investment adjustment costs on subsequent productivity growth for manufacturing industries. I find that adjustment costs increased substantially during the late 70's and early 80's and that this increase is associated with increased investment in information technology. I also estimate the effect of these adjustment costs on BLS productivity growth estimates. This analysis uses two datasets, the NBER–CES Manufacturing Industry Database (Bartelsman and Gray, 1996. NBER Working Paper 205) and the BLS Manufacturing Productivity release of April 2001. For the former I calculate productivity growth using a standard Solow residual; for the latter, I use BLS productivity growth estimates. Comin's critique, however, uses a different measure entirely. He introduces a “corrected TFP” measure that I believe is flawed. Most of his critique uses this measure, rather than the standard productivity growth measures I use. As a consequence, most of his criticism is not actually about my paper, but is, instead, about a paper Comin might have written using his measure. And because this measure is flawed, so is this alternative. In addition, he raises criticism of my evidence of a link between information technology (IT) and adjustment costs and of my corrections to BLS productivity estimates. I present additional evidence to address these concerns and to examine the robustness of my results.     

SERVICE QUALITY IN REGULATED NETWORK INDUSTRIES

ABSTRACT ** : Economic regulators provide incentives for good quality of service as well as constraints on the prices or revenue which can be charged by firms with monopoly power. Economic theory suggests that regulators should choose standards according to consumers' valuation and the marginal cost of quality improvements, and that firms respond by equalizing the marginal costs from not making improvements (i.e. the regulatory penalty plus any loss in revenue) with the marginal costs of improvement. This paper explores the evidence for such economically rational behaviour by both regulators and regulatees. We use a specially constructed data set on service quality targets and achievements across the main UK utility sectors; documentary evidence from regulators; and interviews with managers in companies subject to those regulators. We conclude that regulators are motivated by political as well as economic factors. And that companies may not respond primarily to the regulator's financial rewards or penalties for their quality targets, with a consequent danger that regulated consumers pay for marketing in unregulated markets; the resulting level of service quality may be ‘too high’ in the economic sense.     

QUANTITY AND PRICE INDEXES FOR CONSTRUCTION

Construction has traditionally constituted one of the problem areas in the preparation of industry price and quantity statistm with in the system of national accounts of most countries. The difficulty stems from what is considered to be the unique character of construction projects. This has unnecessarily impeded the calculation of output price indexes and has resulted in the use of various input-based prices as proxies for output prices. One of the objectives of the development of the system of construction price statistics described in this paper is to permit deflation of the outputs of construction industries in order to produce industry output data in constant prices in a manner consistent with measures for the rest of the economy. This is a more promising approach to improving constant price industry and expenditure measures within the SNA framework than attempting such improvements through the collection of a vast array of quantity data. Construction industries sell specified configurations of materials-in-place which are, to borrow the jargon of other fields, sub-assemblies of some total system. As in other areas of industrial pricing, some of these products are simple and some are complex. Trade contractors sell these sub-assemblies or commodities mainly to an owner-builder or to a general contractor who, in turn, resells the trade contractors’ commodities along with whatever sub-assemblies the general contractor has produced. These sub-assemblies, when combined with, for example, the relevant outputs (or sub-assemblies) of manufacturers, the design services of service industries and the purchasers’ own contributions, yield the wide variety of plant and structures which constitute the various classes of gross fixed capital formation, which are not typically solely the outputs of the construction industries. The resulting contractors’ selling price indexes will provide deflators for the whole range of outputs of the various construction industries. These will become part of the system of industry selling price indexes from which relevant indexes for the various goods and services can be selected and combined with appropriate weights to yield arrays of deflators for the highly complex capital expenditures of business, institutions and government. Ultimately this integrated system of construction industry statistics will permit the preparation of gross output and value added measures, in both current and constant prices, to be calculated for the construction industries as an integral part of the Canadian System of National Accounts, as well as provide a key element for improving the deflation of fixed capital formation.     

EX POST VERSUS EX ANTE MEASURES OF THE USER COST OF CAPITAL

Should we use ex post or ex ante measures of user costs to calculate the contribution of capital in a growth accounting exercise? The answer, based on a simple model of temporary equilibrium, is that ex post is better in theory. In practice researchers usually calculate ex post user costs by assuming that the rate of return is equalized across assets. But this is only true if expectations are correct. In general, the ex post rate of return differs between assets, even though ex ante it is the same. I propose a hybrid method. The index of capital services is estimated using ex ante weights; the contribution of capital is the growth of this index multiplied by the ex post income share of capital. I show that this method is theoretically correct if the production function is CES. I compare the ex post, ex ante and hybrid methods using data for 31 U.K. industries from 1970 to 2000.     

SSNIP, state-owned enterprises, public goods and complements

State-owned enterprises sometimes operate in markets below marginal costs in order to provide public goods. In practice it happens that they can cross-subsidize their activity in other markets since regulation is not perfect. Based on a simple model, I show that such cross-subsidization reduces at least consumer welfare. In competition law, the SSNIP test is used to identify market power. If the state-owned enterprises have some scope for price discrimination, the paper argues that the paradox of the SSNIP test that companies operating below marginal costs are a monopolist on a ??relevant market?? makes sense. The paper recommends imposing a duty to deal as a special responsibility for these companies. Finally, it is argued that some criteria are necessary to refine the applicability of competition law in such situations. Subadditivity of the underlying cost structure should be one sufficient condition to apply competition law.     

资本误配置的影响因素初探

资本市场的各种不完美性会导致资本在企业间不能够以资本的边际产出相等的原则进行配置,从而产生资本误配置(capital misallocation)。本文通过研究中国制造业企业的固定资产投资行为,用模拟矩方法(Simulated Method of Moment,SMM),估计了不同所有制类型的企业的资本调整成本(adjustment cost)函数、投资不可逆(irreversibility)程度以及折现因子(discount factor)(用来计算边际利率)。我们发现,民营企业面临的边际利率要远远高于外资企业,而后者面临的边际利率又高于国有企业和集体企业。不同类型的企业面临差别利率是造成资本误配置的最重要因素,投资不可逆次之,资本调整成本则是相对次要但仍然不可忽略的因素。     

Using imported intermediate goods: Selection and technology effects

Producers that use imported intermediate goods tend to be much larger and more productive than others. Some of this is due to a selection effect: the most productive producers self‐select into importing because only they can overcome the fixed costs of developing trade relationships with foreign input suppliers. Some of this is due to a technology effect: any given producer would have higher variable profits from operating the technology using imported intermediate goods. To account for the roles of these theoretical mechanisms, we develop a simple model of a competitive small open economy in which heterogeneous firms endogenously decide whether to use imported intermediate goods. The technology that uses imported intermediate goods is superior but requires a higher fixed cost of operating. The calibrated model captures the large performance advantage of importers and quantifies the selection and technology effects.     

Auctioning incentive contracts: The common cost,independent types case

Laffont and Tirole (1987) analyzed the problem of a regulator that wants to select one ofn firms to carry out a single indivisible project when the firms have private and independent costs and have the possibility of an ex-post investment in (non-observable) effort to reduce the (observable) cost.This paper generalizes the analysis to a model of common costs, unknown at the bidding stage, while keeping the assumption of independent types. I show that the main characteristics of the private costs model are kept in a common cost framework. I provide two mechanisms that may be used to implement the optimal contract.This is a much revised version of a part of chapter one of my Ph.D. dissertation. I would like to thank Drew Fudenberg, Oliver Hart, and two anonymous referees for their comments. I am especially indebted to Jean Tirole, who suggested this problem to me. I have also benefited from presentations at MIT and the EARIE 93 Meeting. Financial support from INVOTAN (grant 3/88/PO) is gratefully acknowledged. Remaining errors are my own.