无形资产评估中折现率问题探讨

无形资产评估是科技体制改革和市场经济发展的需要,是促进科技成果转化、完善知识产权保护制度的重要环节。现阶段无形资产评估的主要方法有市场法、成本法和收益法三种。其中,合理确定折现率是收益法在无形资产评估中得以恰当运用的重要前提条件之一,也是难点和障碍之一。折现率的微小差异,可能会给评估结果带来数以万计甚至数以亿计的差异。因此,应当重视无形资产折现率方法的选择和运用,以进一步提高无形资产的评估质量。本文介绍无形资产评估中折现率的实质及其构成,从折现率的基本概念和确定原则出发,探讨无形资产评估中折现率的测算,最后分析不同条件下折现率的选取问题。     

地利的概念及评定指标

地利对林地资产、林木资产评估价格有着重要影响。它反映了不同林地经济条件的差异。那么经济条件的差异又是如何产生的?让我们先来分析林木产品的生产流通过程,林木产品在生产流通过程中有三类产品、三种价格、三个层次的市场,见下表。     

速生丰产林经营经济效益敏感性分析

在建设项目经营效益评价体系中,对项目进行敏感性分析是评价项目经济效益的一个重要指标。根据林分的解析木材料和相应的林业技术经济指标,采用净现值法测算林木资产经营收益值,利用敏感性原理分析了不同因子对森林资源经营决策的反应灵敏度,识别风险大小,提出经营对策。分析结果表明:木材价格对杉木林经营经济效益的敏感度最强,其次为经营成本和林业税费,而营林成本、折现率和林地地租的敏感度不高。     

不同整地和施肥方式对马尾松幼林生长及其效益评估影响

通过对相同立地的实验地采取不同的整地、施肥方式的马尾松幼林林分胸径、树高的调查,对其林木进行资产评估,并对树高、胸径、资产评估值进行方差分析与多重比较分析。试验结果表明:在龙岩Ⅱ类立地条件下,整地方式对林分树高的生长影响大小分别为:全面整地>块状整地>不整地;施肥处理对林分树高的生长影响分别为:施追肥>施基肥>不施肥,对林分胸径的生长影响分别为:施基肥>施追肥>不施肥。整地方式对马尾松幼林资产评估值的影响分别为:全面整地>块状整地>不整地;施肥处理对马尾松幼林资产评估值的影响大小分别为:施追肥>施基肥>不施肥。因此,全面整地和施追肥是马尾松幼林取得最大资产评估值的最好的营林措施;块状整地和施追肥是马尾松幼林生长最快及取得最大经济效益的营林措施。     

不同整地和施肥方式对马尾松幼林生长及其效益评估影响

通过对相同立地的实验地采取不同的整地、施肥方式的马尾松幼林林分胸径、树高的调查,对其林木进行资产评估,并对树高、胸径、资产评估值进行方差分析与多重比较分析。试验结果表明：在龙岩Ⅱ类立地条件下,整地方式对林分树高的生长影响大小分别为：全面整地〉块状整地〉不整地：施肥处理对林分树高的生长影响分别为：施追肥〉施基肥〉不施肥．对林分胸径的生长影响分别为：施基肥〉施追肥〉不施肥。整地方式对马尾松幼林资产评估值的影响分别为：全面整地〉块状整地〉不整地：施肥处理对马尾松幼林资产评估值的影响大小分别为：施追肥〉施基肥〉不施肥。因此,全面整地和施追肥是马尾松幼林取得最大资产评估值的最好的营林措施;块状整地和施追肥是马尾松幼林生长最快及取得最大经济效益的营林措施。     

应用林地收益法对林地资产评估的实践

本文分析了现行林地资产评估方法的局限性,指出了现行的评估方法对于规模较大的林地资产且林木复杂的情况较难适用。本文结合现行资产评估准则及有关规定,提出了林地期望价法与资产评估中现行的收益法有机融合的林地收益法,并着重指出了林地收益法的概念和适用范围。简要说明了林地收益法的评估过程,指出森林资源调查、林地权属核实、林地现场勘查、价格调研和评定估算等程序缺一不可。重点结合具体案例阐述了林地收益法的测算要点,最后提出了应用林地收益法进行评估时需关注的持续经营的可能性、林地面积的口径和经营到期后林木收益等事项,供参考。     

收益法相关问题研究

成本法、市场法和收益法是国际通行的资产评估的三大方法。随着我国资产交易的日益活跃,无形资产评估,企业价值评估的需求增长,收益法应用越来越广泛,与之相应的,社会各界也日益关注收益法在评估过程中的应用。     

收益法在林地资产评估中的表现形式及应用探讨

收益法是林地资产评估中常用的一种方法,随着林业产权制度改革深入推进,林地交易行为越来越多,林地租金支付方式呈现各种形式,收益法公式形式多样。在分析《森林资源资产评估技术规范（试行）》中涉及的两种收益法公式的基础上,根据林地纯收益获取的方式,提出三种不同收益情况下的收益法计算公式,分析各种收益法计算公式的适用性,并举例说明收益法的应用,旨在进一步完善林地资产评估方法体系,为开展林地资产评估业务提供技术支撑。     

用材林林地资产动态评估模型构建研究

以福建省西北部用材林为研究对象,在林地期望价修正法的基础上,考虑随着时间推移和社会经济变异所引起的林地质量差异、地区差异和物价变异,构建出由林地标准地租、立地差异系数、集材费用、运输费用、地区差异系数和物价变动指数所组成林地资产动态评估模型。研究结果表明,该模型是符合福建省西北部当地的地租水平的,可方便、快捷地对用材林林地资产进行评定估。     

森林资源资产化管理的若干问题

森林资源资产化是明晰森林资源产权的必然途径。它首先必须解决森林资源根据经济属性不同的分类经营,实施森林资源调查、计量、数表以及动态监测的规范化管理,认清森林资源评估与资产评估是两个不同的范畴。在此基础上,进行森林资源,特别是林木和林地的经济评价(包括评估公式,范围等),并把日常资产管理工作和资源产权变动的价让和索赔落到实处,使森林资源资产化工作走上科学规范的道路。     

国有森林资源资产出让转让变动研究——以浙江省为例

近年来,随着林权制度改革的不断深化,国有森林资源资产产权变动也日益增多。在各类国有森林资源资产产权变动中,出让、转让占全部产权变动的比例最大、发生的次数最多、涉及的经营单位最广。变动类型以林地使用权和旅游(景观)经营权2种类型为主,定价方式以协议定价为主。出让、转让产权变化中存在着定价不透明、评估不健全、程序不到位、管理不规范,森林资源资产化管理制度尚待完善等问题。针对存在的问题,提出了严肃产权变动行为,规范产权交易市场和健全产权管理机构的建议。     

Economic evaluation of ecosystem goods and services under different landscape management scenarios

Human-induced changes in the natural environment are affecting the provision of ecosystem goods and services (EGS). Land use plans rarely include the value of public ecosystem services such as climate regulation and biodiversity due to difficulties in valuing these services. In this study, we assessed total economic value for five important ecosystem goods and services under five future land-use scenarios using varying levels of costs, prices and discount rates. Results indicated that at higher discount rates normally applied to commercial activities, and assuming the current prices for goods and services, net present value (NPV) was highest for landscape management scenarios aimed at maximising agricultural production. Potential income from services such as carbon and biodiversity does not offset projected income lost from agriculture due to land-use changes. At higher discount rates, NPV was negative for the two scenarios aimed at enhancing the longer term ecological sustainability of the landscape. These results indicate that income from carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation would need to be considerably higher than current levels in order to justify focusing management of this landscape on ecological outcomes. At lower discount rates (at levels normally associated with public investments), the more ecologically appropriate ‘mosaic farming system’ had the highest NPV, indicating that this type of system might be attractive for investors interested in longer term return horizons or wider public benefits. Higher income from carbon or biodiversity, or increased return from timber by using high value tree species, could potentially make more ecologically appropriate systems profitable at higher discount rates.     

DO HIGH DISCOUNT RATES DESTROY TROPICAL FORESTS

The short-term viewpoint implicit in high discount rates seems to favour immediate forest exploitation rather than conservation for perpetual benefits. However, the value of logging revenues increases with a lower discount rate, because of the greater weighting given to investible funds. Thus, in several theoretical models, net present value of logging increases as discount rate is lowered. In practice, however, long-term costs of logging may also incur the weighting appropriate to investment funds; reinvestment of logging revenues may not actually take place; and lower discount rates may be appropriate for costs but not revenues. These circumstances favour conservation, the more so at lower discount rates.     

Optimal rotation with negative discount rates: completing the picture

While the rotation of maximum forest rent (no discounting of revenues and costs) is sometimes discussed conceptually and calculated practically, forest economists have almost invariably focused on optimal rotation with a positive discount rate. Some circumstances, especially related to increasing marginal utility with decreasing availability per head of products, would justify use of a negative discount rate. For a logically complete suite of conditions, a means of identifying optimal rotation with such a rate is needed. Applying the usual formulation for land expectation value then produces a meaningless result. Two approaches seem to give a solution. One uses the first-order conditions for an optimum. Another uses inversion of time perspective to produce sensible-seeming results. However, for cases where the world, or the value of forest production, ends suddenly at an unpredictable time, the optimal rotation is, surprisingly, that of maximum forest rent. Where the cause of negative discount rates is of limited duration before stability or growing affluence is re-established, this “provisional optimum” can be modified responsively.     

Optimal rotation with declining discount rate

In recent years it has been argued, from many perspectives, that the further into the future a value flow occurs, the lower is the appropriate discount rate for it. National governments are now beginning to authorise such declining discount rates. This viewpoint can be, and has been, formalised in various ways, and has been applied to evaluating forestry investments of given durations. When the optimal duration of investment is itself the issue, new problems arise. Lower discount rates make subsequent rotations longer than earlier ones, and for a given length more valuable than they would otherwise be. This affects the optimal length of earlier rotations, which in turn may affect the discount rate profile applicable to later ones. In the absence of analytical solutions for the optimal sequence of rotations, numerical protocols are needed. The results arising are mostly in accord with expectations. If the change of discount rate is due to expected changes of circumstance that are actually realised, then the optimal sequence of rotations will remain as initially determined. If, however, it is due merely to the particular time perspective of the present generation, rotations will be revised by future generations. This will lead to a sequence of rotations similar to that deemed optimal at the current short-term discount rate. The most important reductions in profitability caused by choosing the “wrong” discounting protocol arise from the “wrong” rate, rather than by using declining rates as such.     

生态产品供给的内生动力机制释析 ——基于完整价值回报与代际价值回报的双重视角

研究目的：从生态产品完整价值回报和代际价值回报两个视角,应用资源价值构成理论和外部性理论,探究生态产品供给内生动力不足的原因以及提升内生动力的策略。研究方法：成本效益分析方法和情景模拟方法。研究结果：生态产品供给的内生动力缺失的原因在于供给主体缺乏合理的完整价值回报和代际价值回报：一方面,由于生态价值评价体系的缺失和地方政府的职责推诿抑制了生态价值的实现,部分地区人力资本和人造资本的短板约束了社会文化价值的实现;另一方面,缺失适用于生态产品供给的社会折现率体系和相关的代际补偿机制导致了生态产品供给在当前收益与未来收益间存在转换偏差,降低了供给行动的代际回报。研究结论：提升生态产品供给的内生动力可从两方面着手：一方面需要建立不同类型的价值评价体系,拓宽生态价值实现渠道,明晰政府在价值实现中的职责;另一方面需要建立符合生态产品特点的新代际折现率体系,参照新代际折现率和传统折现率核算得到的净现值差额制定代际补偿标准,探索考虑代际影响的代际金融产品,根据价值替代难度建立健全生态产品价值实现机制。     

Property taxation and rural land values: Their effect on private forestland ownership structure in Texas

The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of property tax and rural land market value on the ownership structure of private forestland in Texas. Using county-level panel data in an Instrumental Variable regression framework, we estimated the effect of property tax rate and rural land value on two measures of ownership fragmentation: the total number of private forest landowners and the average size of private forest holdings. The results indicate that after controlling for the total amount of private forest area in a county, both property tax rates and rural land values increased ownership fragmentation. However, the rate of ownership fragmentation was relatively inelastic in both property tax rate and rural land value. While further restructuring local property tax rates might minimize the negative effect on private ownership dynamics, policy instruments that decrease the disparity between productivity value and market value of rural forestland might be needed to check the ongoing ownership fragmentation in Texas and elsewhere in the United States.     

关于江西省林地保护利用的几点思考

林地是林业可持续发展和生态环境建设的重要物质基础和保障。文章从江西省林地保护利用现状入手,分析了林地保护利用中存在的分布不平衡、保护难度大、生产率比较低、基础建设比较弱等问题,提出了增加林地和森林保有量、严格保护林地、提高林地生产率、加强基础建设等对策建议,为江西省林地保护利用提供科学的依据。     

江苏省林业产权制度改革林地流转政策研究

江苏经过多年的努力 ,林业取得了长足的进展 ,林业已经成为江苏农业的重要组成部分 ,如何在提高农民收入的同时 ,加速林业产业化进程 ,增强林业活力 ,关键是建立和完善林业产权制度 ,林业产权制度改革的核心是林地流转机制的建立和完善。通过对江苏各地的调查发现 ,在当前的林地流转过程中 ,缺少相关政策的指导 ,实际中存在着一些不规范的情况 ,本文拟从江苏实际出发 ,针对林业产权制度改革中存在的问题 ,提出相应的对策措施 ,以保证江苏林业产权制度改革的顺利进行。     

How forestland size affects household profits from timber harvests: A case-study in China’s Southern collective forest area

To improve the economies of scale in forest management and reduce the fragmentation of forestland, the Chinese central government has implemented a collective forest tenure supplementary reform since 2008. This has included a series of policies for motivating transfer of forestlands use rights among households in the country’s Southern Collective Forest Area (SCFA). However, to date there is little evidence that large-scale forest owners can earn more profits from timber harvests than small-scale forest owners in the SCFA. Using data collected from household surveys in the three of the SCFA’s provinces in 2016, this paper examines the return to scale of forestland ownership for timber harvests in this region, and how the scale of forestland ownership affects households’ profits from timber harvests. The results show a constant return to scale in timber harvests in the case provinces in China’s SCFA, that forestland area makes the most important contribution to the output of timber harvests, and that fragmentation of forestland results in lower profits from timber harvests. It appears that a moderate scale of forestland ownership should be identified for increasing the profits from timber harvests. With the rapid urbanization throughout China, an increase in off-farm employment among rural household members has a negative impact on timber harvests in the region. We argue that policymakers should realize the importance of encouraging the forestland transfers and improve the concentration of forestlands in the next stage of forest tenure rights reform in China’s SCFA.