Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity in OECD

This study revisits Purchasing Power Parity theory (PPP) in the 34 OECD countries during January 1994–August 2013. We use a new panel stationary test with both sharp breaks and smooth shifts, a novel approach to panel unit-root testing, proposed by Bahmani–Oskooee et al. (2014). The results indicate that the PPP holds in half of the 34 OECD countries. These results indicate the importance of proper modelling of both sharp breaks and smooth shifts in real effective exchange rate series of OECD countries.     

Exchange Rates and Stock Prices in the MENA Countries: What Role for Oil?

This paper considers the linkage between stock prices and exchange rates in four MENA (Middle East and North Africa) emerging markets. In contrast to the existing evidence that uses a global market index to uncover such a relationship it is found that for the sample countries oil prices emerge as the dominant factor in the above relationship. The paper considers the presence of regime shifts and evidence is found of cointegration only for the period following the 1999 oil price shock. Readjustment towards equilibrium in each stock market occurs via oil price changes. Finally, a number of robustness checks are performed and persistence profiles produced.     

On the Causality Between Exchange Rates and Stock Prices: A Note

This study uses a new Granger non–causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) to contribute to the debate on exchange rates and stock prices in Sweden. It examines a possible causal relation between these variables in a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The results show that Granger causality is unidirectional running from stock prices to effective exchange rates. The results also reveal that an increase in Swedish stock prices is associated with an appreciation of the Swedish krona. Special attention is given to the estimation methodology and the lag choosing process.     

Eco-Efficiency and Convergence in OECD Countries

This paper assesses the convergence in eco-efficiency of a group of 22 OECD countries over the period 1980–2008. In doing so, three air pollutants representing the impact on the environment of economic activities are considered, namely, carbon dioxide ( ${\text{ CO}}_{2}$ ), nitrogen oxides ( ${\text{ NO}}_\mathrm{X}$ ) and sulphur oxides ( ${\text{ SO}}_\mathrm{X}$ ); furthermore, eco-efficiency scores at both country and air-pollutant-specific level are computed using Data Envelopment Analysis techniques. Then, convergence is evaluated using the recent approach by Phillips and Sul Econometrica 75:1771–1855 (2007), which tests for the existence of convergence groups. First, we find that eco-efficiency has improved over the period, with the exception of ${\text{ NO}}_\mathrm{X}$ emissions. Second, Switzerland is the most eco-efficient country, followed by some Scandinavian economies, such as Sweden, Iceland, Norway and Denmark. In contrast, Southern European countries such as Portugal, Spain and Greece, in addition to Hungary, Turkey, Canada and the United States, are among the worst performers. Finally, we find that both the most eco-efficient countries and the worst tend to form clubs of convergence.     

The NAIRU and Classical Unemployment in the OECD Countries

Using panel data for the OECD countries over the period 1960–93 this paper estimates the NAIRU, tests the restrictions implied by the NAIRU and estimates the extent to which the NAIRU is able to explain the low frequency movements in unemployment. The results indicate that the long-run restrictions imposed on the NAIRU are not satisfied for many countries and that the NAIRU is unable to account for the low frequency movements in unemployment.     

Measuring Labour Market Flexibility in the OECD Countries

This paper investigates the adjustment of employment to population shocks in 22 OECD countries over the period 1960–1997. Most of the countries have experienced significant population shocks during that period – due to migration and other reasons. We estimate the speed of adjustment parameter which is used as a measure of the functioning of the labour market. If the OECD countries are compared using this measure, it turns out that the Anglo Saxon countries clearly outperform the other (European) countries in terms of labour market adjustment. In the case of the Nordic countries, the results presented are the most extreme. In practically all OECD countries, the functioning of the labour market seems to have deteriorated over time. These observations seem to be helpful in explaining the behaviour of unemployment rates in the OECD area.     

Skilled Labour and International Specialisation in OECD Countries

Human capital and skilled labour are likely to become increasingly important determinants of industrial localisation. This paper calculates the factor content—the services of skilled labour, classified by level of education, embodied in trade in manufactures—for a sample of OECD countries in 1970–85. USA and Japan show a strong ‘revealed comparative advantage’ in human capital intensive production. In general, OECD countries where highly educated labour is abundant tend to specialise in and export skill intensive goods. Changes in the ranking with respect to specialisation in skill intensive goods, in particular the strong improvement of Japans' position, seem to be linked to different rates of accumulation of human capital.     

流动性过剩与股票价格重估

在固定汇率与资本管制框架下,剩余储蓄的持续增加必然导致流动性过剩,对股票市场而言,只有当实体经济持续的剩余储蓄增加引起流动性过剩时,才会推动股票市场估值中枢的剧烈抬升.对近期经济指标的分析表明,股票市场重估将会持续下去,而货币政策紧缩引起的投资下降会进一步扩大剩余储蓄,加快重估的进程.     

Foreign Direct Investment Determinants in OECD and Developing Countries

In this paper we examine the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow determinants in 24 Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) and 22 developing (non‐OECD) countries over 1980–2012, using the standard fixed effects as well as a dynamic panel approach. The most robust finding is that lagged FDI, market size, gross capital formation and corporate taxation significantly affect FDI inflows in OECD countries. We also examine a group of developing countries, taking into consideration the increased share of world FDI inflows that developing countries have attracted, and compare the results. In this case, lagged FDI, market size, labor cost and institutional variables provide the most robust results. The empirical results have important policy implications indicating the factors that host economies should emphasize in order to attract FDI inflows.     

OECD国家深化教育创新改革的进展与启示

近十年来,OECD国家以多种方式加快推进教育改革,并重视培养学生“解决问题的能力”、鼓励学生使用“信息化技术”、强调“主动式学习”、强调教师专业能力特别是“批判性思考”技能。这些实践是OECD国家教育创新的亮点,对我国深化教育改革,培养21世纪创新型人才具有重要的参考意义。     

经合组织国家促进创新和长期增长的政策措施

为应对金融危机，经合组织国家都制定了经济刺激计划，其中诸多政策不仅局限于满足短期社会需求，而是旨在推动创新和长期经济增长。具体包括基础设施投资；研发和创新投入；人力资本、教育、就业和培训；投资于环保和节能技术；扶持中小企业和创业等。     

Income Inequality in OECD Countries: Data and Explanations

There is much disagreement about both the facts and the explanationsof income inequality. Even if we confine attention to OECD countries,we find people arguing that there has been a great U-turn, withinequality rising sharply after its post war fall, and otherswho believe that the speed of change is glacial. In order toevaluate the historical record, we need data for a long runof years. The present paper reviews evidence about coveringthe period 1945–2001 for nine OECD countries. It is widelybelieved that rising inequality is attributable to technologicalchange and to globalisation. The second part of the paper arguesthat these are only part of a complex story. Household incomesdepend on public policy and on sources of income apart fromwork. What is happening at the top of the distribution may needto be explained quite differently. (JEL H0, E6)     

Survey on the Shadow Economy and Undeclared Earnings in OECD Countries

Abstract. In most OECD countries the policy instrument of choice to prevent people from working in the shadows has been deterrence. While deterrence is well founded from a theoretical point of view, the empirical evidence on its success is weak: tax policies and state deregulation appear to work much better. The discussion of the recent literature underlines that in addition to economic opportunities, the overall situation in the labor market and unemployment are crucial for an understanding of the dynamics of the shadow economy.     

股票指数:期货价格与现货价格的领先-滞后关系

股指期货出现后,国际金融市场出现了一个重要的研究领域,即股票指数期货价格和现货价格的关系问题。这不但是一个理论问题,而且是一个实证问题,国外学者对此进行了大量的研究。研究的焦点之一是这两个价格是否具有领先—滞后关系(lead-leg relationship)。     

House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism*

We analyze the role of house prices and stock prices in the monetary‐policy transmission mechanism in the US, using a structural vector autoregressive model. If we allow the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news, we find different roles for house prices and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism. Following a contractionary monetary‐policy shock, stock prices fall immediately, while the response in house prices is more gradual. Regarding the systematic response in monetary policy, stock prices play a more important role than house prices. As a consequence, house prices contribute more than stock prices to fluctuations in gross domestic product and inflation.     

Explaining Differences in Economic Growth among OECD Countries

This paper re-examines the determinants of growth of GDP per capita using panel data for OECD countries for the period 1970–1999 with data averaged over five-year periods from new perspectives. First, we introduce indicators of innovation input and technological specialization simultaneously into the empirical growth equation. Second, we employ the system-GMM (Generalized-Method-of-Moments) panel estimator that controls for (a) the possible specification bias when variables are highly persistent over time and (b) the possible simultaneity bias. We find a large and statistically significant impact of business enterprise R&D (BERD) intensity on GDP per capita with an elasticity of 0.22. The share of high-technology exports is also significantly positively related to GDP per capita, but the magnitude suggests that BERD is more important than technological specialization in explaining the level of GDP per capita. Furthermore, we find that the budget deficit and government consumption (both measured as percentages of GDP) and the volatility of growth are significantly negatively related to GDP per capita.The authors would like to thank Gunther Tichy for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this article. We also thank the participants of the Austrian economic association conference (NOEG) and the Empirical Industrial Organization workshop at the WU WIEN for helpful comments. We gratefully acknowledge financial support from the OeNB Jubiläumsfonds Project and the Austrian Federal Ministry for Economy and Labor (BMWA).JEL codes: E62, H20, H50, O23, O40     

The Decline of Schooling Productivity in OECD Countries

Based on Baumol's cost-disease model, we develop two alternative measures of the change in the productivity of schooling. Both productivity measures are based on changes in the relative price of schooling. We find that in most OECD countries the price of schooling has increased faster in 1970–94 than would be compatible with constant schooling productivity. In addition, we show that the average performance of pupils has remained constant at best in most OECD countries. Our results imply a larger decline in the productivity of schooling in many OECD countries than in the United States.     

Revisiting the mean reversion of inflation rates for 22 OECD countries

This study applies a flexible Fourier stationary test, proposed by Becker et al. (2006) to investigate the mean reversion of inflation in 22 OECD countries over the period of 1961 to 2011. While traditional unit root tests give us mixed results, empirical results from our flexible Fourier stationary test indicate that mean reversion of inflation holds in all 22 OECD countries. Our results have important policy implications for the 22 OECD countries under study.     

Flexibility at the Margin and Labor Market Volatility in OECD Countries*

We study the business‐cycle behavior of segmented labor markets with flexibility at the margin (e.g., just affecting fixed‐term contracts). We present a matching model with temporary and permanent jobs (i) where there is a gap in the firing costs associated with these types of jobs and (ii) where there are restrictions in the creation and duration of fixed‐term contracts. We show that a labor market with ``flexibility at the margin'' increases the unemployment volatility with respect to one that is fully regulated. This analysis yields new insights into the interpretation of the recent volatility changes witnessed in the OECD area.