Spatial Equilibrium of Wheat Markets in Ethiopia

Abstract: Knowledge about the extent to which spatial markets are integrated is useful to assess the impact of liberalization policies on the performance of agricultural markets in the developing countries. In turn, this would help to guide subsequent interventions aimed at improving the performance of markets. Cointegration techniques provide an analytical framework to know whether markets are integrated, by making it possible to investigate the existence and magnitude of price transmission between spatial markets. This study tries to analyze the spatial equilibrium of wheat markets in Ethiopia by employing an autoregressive distributed‐lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis on wheat prices observed during the post‐liberalization period for the central wholesale market (Addis Ababa) and for a local market (Ambo). The major finding of a stable equilibrium relationship between the price series considered provides evidence of market integration. Since intervention in local markets is generally costly and less effective, the result suggests the possibility of targeting intervention at the central wholesale market level with the objective of influencing price dynamics in the local markets.     

Regional Comparisons,Spatial Aggregation,and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through in U.S. Gasoline Markets

Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present. Asymmetric pass-through was found across all regions, with faster pass-through when prices are rising. Pass-through patterns, in terms of speed and time for completion, were found to vary from region to region. Spatial aggregation was investigated at the national level and the East Coast with the aggregated cumulative pass-through being greater than the volume-weighted regional pass-through when spot prices increase. These results are useful to the petroleum industry, consumers, and policy makers by providing a basis to estimate the retail price effects that result from a change in spot price.     

Rethinking Profit-Maximization in Second-Degree Price Discriminating Markets

Atlantic Economic Journal - Standard models of indirect price discrimination generate a separating equilibrium in which all consumers choose bundles on their demand curves. Low-demand consumers...     

Disclosure Policy,Information Asymmetry,and Liquidity in Equity Markets*

Abstract. This study investigates the relation between disclosure policy and liquidity in equity markets. Disclosure policy influences market liquidity because uninformed investors “price protect” against adverse selection, and this price protection is manifested in market liquidity. Bid-ask spreads, the empirical measure of market liquidity used in this study, are predicted to be inversely related to disclosure policy. In addition, increased trading by informed traders and higher probability of information event occurrence are predicted to both increase spreads and intensify the relation between spreads and disclosure policy. These predictions apply during periods in which no news about the firm is disclosed or pending. The results show that relative bid-ask spreads for firms with disclosure rankings in the bottom third of the empirical distribution are approximately 50 percent higher than spreads for firms with disclosure rankings in the top third of the empirical distribution. Tests that assume endogenous disclosure policy reveal a significant negative relation between disclosure policy and spreads, even after controlling for the effects of return volatility, trading volume, and share price. Tests for cross-sectional variation in spreads and for the sensitivity of spreads to disclosure policy based on informed trade activity and probability of information event occurrence are generally consistent with the predictions, though these results are not statistically significant. The findings of this study are consistent with the notion that a well-regarded disclosure policy reduces information asymmetry and hence increases liquidity in equity markets. Résumé. L'auteur analyse la relation entre la politique d'information et la liquidité des marchés d'actions. La politique d'information influe sur la liquidité du marché, étant donné que les investisseurs non informés se protègent contre les choix préjudiciables en ce qui a trait aux cours, comportement de protection qui se manifeste dans la liquidité du marché. Les écarts entre les cours acheteur et vendeur, la mesure empirique de la liquidité du marché utilisée dans la présente étude, devraient présenter, selon les prévisions, une relation inverse avec la politique d'information. De plus, l'intensification de l'activité des négociateurs informés et la probabilité accrue de l'occurrence d'un événement d'information devraient, selon les prévisions, augmenter tous les deux les écarts et consolider la relation entre les écarts et la politique d'information. Ces prévisions s'appliquent aux cours des périodes dans lesquelles aucune information nouvelle au sujet de l'entreprise n'est publiée ou n'est sur le point de l'être. Les résultats démontrent que les écarts relatifs entre cours acheteur et vendeur des entreprises dont la publication d'information les place dans le tiers inférieur de la distribution empirique sont d'environ 50 pour cent supérieurs aux écarts des entreprises dont la publication d'information les place dans le tiers supérieur de la distribution empirique. Les tests qui supposent une politique d'information endogène révèlent une relation négative significative entre la politique d'information et les écarts, même après avoir contrôlé les conséquences de la volatilité du rendement, le volume des opérations et le cours de l'action. Les tests relatifs à la variation transversale des écarts et de la sensibilité des écarts à la politique d'information, basée sur l'activité de négociation informée et la probabilité d'occurrence d'un événement d'information, sont généralement conformes aux prévisions, bien que les résultats n'en soient pas statistiquement significatifs. Les conclusions de l'étude confirment le principe selon lequel une politique d'information bien pensée réduit l'asymétrie de l'information et, par conséquent, augmente la liquidité des marchés d'actions.     

Rural Land,Emerging Rental Land Markets and Public Policy in Ethiopia

Abstract: While farmers today access land mainly through administrative‐based land distribution, transactions in rental markets are on the rise. Different rental contracts are informally arranged with varied land use and transfer rights and degree of enforcement. These contracts are often interlocked to overcome the problem of incomplete or missing non‐land factor markets. The empirical evidence is thin but shows mixed records on performance of rental markets. Transactions in rental markets provide an additional venue to access land, reduce disparity in distribution of area of land operated, correct imbalances in factor proportions at farm level, and partly substitute for missing or incomplete factor markets. However, rights to rental land are restricted and poorly enforced, and markets are localized and thinly traded. While participation in rental markets is potentially welfare improving, increasing scarcity of land and demands for higher rent, a fee for right to rent land, payment in cash, farming skills and experience, and proof of no‐default are tightening conditions to access to land, particularly to the young poor farmers. Public policy has an important role in formalizing and enhancing the development of rental markets through strengthening enforceable long‐term security of tenure, providing legal cover to rental contracts, allowing tradability of long‐term use rights through rental markets, and providing the institutional mechanism to enforce contracts and reduce the burden of self‐enforcement. These policy measures need to be nested within a broad framework of market development, and informed by policy research and experimentation.     

Prospects and Challenges for Developing Securities Markets in Ethiopia: An Analytical Review

This paper is an analytical review of the prospects and challenges of developing securities markets in Ethiopia. With the fall of communism and the emergence of capitalism, many countries around the world are moving toward market‐oriented economies and securities markets are springing up on all continents around the globe. Securities markets have come to symbolize to many the essence of capitalistic economic relations. When studying the economies of developing countries, the first thing that becomes apparent is the existence of immense and, to a considerable extent, unemployed human resources as well as an acute shortage of capital. Shortage of capital is a major constraint in the realization of economic development. Recognizing the role that securities markets play in mobilizing capital, more than a dozen African countries have established stock markets. Ethiopia is not one of them. There is little current research which focuses on Africa's securities markets. This study helps to contribute to that effort by focusing on Ethiopia, the second largest country in sub‐Saharan Africa plagued with major economic problems. The paper concludes by recommending the establishment of a stock market and providing suggestions on how to do it.     

Relative Performance Incentives and Price Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets

We study experimental markets in which participants face incentives modeled upon those prevailing in markets for managed funds. Each participant's portfolio is periodically evaluated at market value and ranked by relative performance as measured by short‐term paper returns. Those who rank highly attract a larger share of new fund inflows. In an environment in which prices are typically close to intrinsic value, the effect of these incentives is mild. However, in an environment in which markets are prone to bubble, mispricing is greatly exacerbated by relative performance incentives and becomes even more pronounced with experience.     

我国天然胶期货价格与现货价格关系的实证研究

期货价格与现货价格具有趋合性规律.近年来,我国天然胶期货市场上价格操纵行为时而发生,期货价格屡屡背离现货价格.本文通过对当前我国天然胶期货价格和现货价格之间协整关系的实证分析,验证了二者之间尚不真正具备趋合性规律,进而针对存在的不足,提出相应对策建议.     

Earnings Forecasts and Price Efficiency after Earnings Realizations: Reduction in Information Asymmetry through Learning from Price*

When information asymmetry is a major market friction, earnings forecasts can lead to higher price efficiency even after the information in forecasts completely dissipates upon earnings realizations. We show this in an experimental market that features information asymmetry (i.e., some traders possess differential private information). Earnings forecasts reduce information asymmetry and lead to prices that reflect a greater amount of private information. Traders can learn more about others' information from prices. This information learned from past prices continues to reduce information asymmetry and improve price efficiency even after earnings realizations. We contribute to the disclosure literature by showing the evidence that the learning‐from‐price effect amplifies the impact of public disclosure on price efficiency.     

涨跌幅限制对证券市场影响的实验经济学研究

涨跌幅限制是一种稳定证券市场价格的制度安排。长期以来有关涨跌幅限制的政策效果一直存在较大的争议。本文借鉴西方实验经济学的基本方法。利用相关计算机实验系统。设置无涨跌幅限制、静态涨跌幅限制和动态涨跌幅限制三组不同的实验环境。分另4选取实验参与人进行模拟证券交易,对静态和动态涨跌幅限制制度对市场的影响进行研究。本文得出的结论是。与没有价格限制的基准实验相比较,动态和静态涨跌幅限制都显著的抑制了价格对基础价值的偏离。提高了市场的信息反映程度。实验结果还表明。动态涨跌幅限制能够抚平市场反应的波动程度．提高市场的流动性,而静态涨跌幅限制在一定程度阻碍了交易的实现,影响了市场交易的持续性。     

福州市住宅价格空间结构分析

利用探索性空间数据分析、克里格插值和多元回归分析相结合的方法,以一种新的角度深入研究福州市住宅价格在空间上的整体分布格局,以期丰富城市房价空间理论并为福州市房地产业和谐有序发展提供参考。研究发现:①福州住宅价格呈多中心结构,并向四周逐渐递减,在空间分布上有一定的连续性;②空间自相关性显著,总体上呈空间集聚格局,空间变异性明显;③住宅价格与中心城区的距离呈现显著的线性相关。     

Price Transmission and Market Integration in Oyo State,Nigeria

Abstract: The paper tests the market integration of the main staple agricultural commodities in Oyo State. Monthly prices in covering a period of 8 years (1994–2001) were obtained from Oyo State Agricultural Development Programme (OYSADP) and analysed using the Ravallion Model. The study also calculated the Indices of Market Concentration (IMC) to measure the degree of spatial market integration. The IMCs for cassava, yam, white maize and yellow maize were 0.3074, 0.0814, 0.02712 and 0.1648 respectively. The IMCs imply high short‐run market integration between the reference and rural markets. The market integration indices confirm that price changes in the urban markets (Bodija and Ilora) translated to changes in the price of cassava, yam, maize, yellow maize in rural markets (Akanran, Towobowo, Anko, Irepodun, Oje, Kajola, Akala and Aberu). It is concluded that agricultural commodity arbitrage is working. The degree of market integration can be enhanced by the provision of not only transport infrastructure but by provision of adequate formal marketing information and standardization of weights and measures in the system.