Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment

The incentive to renege on a commitment to a fixed exchange rate is shown to be state contingent. A fixed exchange rate policy is not viable under unusual circumstances, and the incentive to violate the commitment is larger in the case of contractionary shocks than in the case of expansionary shocks. The possibility that the exchange rate regime is changed in unusual circumstances has significant effects also under normal circumstances, implying systematic devaluation expectations, excessive real wages and (ex post) real rates of interest, lower output and loss of reserves, which in turn reduces the incentive to initiate a fixed exchange rate policy. Moreover, policyshifts may be contagious among countries.     

ECB Foreign Exchange Intervention and the EURO: Institutional Framework,News, and Intervention

Using a unique intervention news data set, this paper investigates the impact of ECB intervention and intervention-related news (newswire reports) on the Euro exchange rate. A time-series study of news generated by ECB officials and market participants regarding intervention and the value of the Euro as well as an event study of firm reports of ECB intervention is conducted. Both studies find significant short-run effects on the Euro value, while only negative statements (official statements denying past intervention or ruling out future intervention) appear to have persistent effects.     

Recente geschriften van J.-Ch. Snoy en M. Camps over de europese economische samenwerking

Jean-Charles Baron Snoy et d'Oppuers: Les Etapes de la Coopération Européenne et les Négociations relatives à une Zone de Libre Echange, Chronique de Politique Etrangére, Institut Royal des Relations Internationales, Brussel, september-november '59 (54 blz. plus 155 blz. bijlagen) La Négociation Européenne dans une Nouvelle Phase, Revue Générale Belge, Brussel, februari 1960 (18 blz.) Towards a European Solution, Lloyds Bank Review, London, juli 1960 (17 blz.)Miriam Camps: The Free Trade Area Negotiations, Occasional Paper No. 2, publication of Political and Economic Planning (PEP), Londen, april 1959 (51 blz.) Division in Europe, Occasional Paper No. 8, publications of PEP, Londen, juni 1960 (66 blz.) Britain, the Six and American Policy, Foreign Affairs, an American Quarterly Review, oktober 1960 (11 blz.) Four Approaches to the European Problem, Occasional Paper No. 12, publication of PEP, Londen, maart 1961 (26 blz.)     

Fundamentals,regime shifts,and dollar behavior in the 1980s

I provide an economic interpretation of the long swings of the dollar in the 1980s. I use the fully modified estimator method to analyze the long-run behavior of the dollar/sterling exchange rate over the period 1979–1989, detecting a structural shift in February–March 1985. In the 1979–1985 subperiod economic agents have reacted to a reduced set of fundamentals only, a finding that might corroborate the irrational behavior interpretation of the dollar upswing. In the 1985–1989 subperiod economic agents have associated the equilibrium value of the dollar with the behavior of a more balanced set of fundamentals.     

The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review

Most applied cointegration investigations for the open macro economy rely on error correction models to infer causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, and market segmentation. The error correction model is well defined only when cointegration is due to simultaneous common factors. When common factors are not explicitly described as in a latent common factor model, however, error correction models are misspecified. Researchers should therefore be careful in using the error correction model for cointegrated time series to ensure that they are indeed generated from simultaneous common factor models. Analysts should investigate the exact nature of both long-run and short-run relationships by presenting a full-fledged simultaneous equations model. Without such an explicit simultaneous equations model, the presence of cointegration will only uncover the existence of a long-run relationship, but not causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, or market segmentation. A best practice will be prescribed for the proper use and interpretation of cointegration application.     

Purchasing Power Parity during Currency Crises: A Panel Unit Root Test under Structural Breaks

We investigate the stationarity of real exchange rates using a panel of Asian and South and Latin American countries by applying a new panel unit root test that is robust to structural breaks due to currency crises. It turns out that the long-run PPP relationship is relevant for the Asian countries, which experienced a flexible exchange rate, whereas for the South and Latin American countries, for which the exchange rate has been pegged to the U.S. dollar for a long time, the PPP relationship breaks down. In Asian countries PPP appears to hold before the 1997 crisis, which is not the case for the South and Latin American countries. This suggests that the Asian flu corresponds to a second-generation type of crises, whereas the 1995 Mexican tequila fits the first-generation models better. JEL no. C13, C33, E41     

The economics of dying: A misapplication of tools

Conclusions Unlike McKenzie and Tullock, we do not know how personsshould treat their bodily organs or what is an ideal exit. That depends upon their utility goals, which are defined in output terms specific to the decision maker. We contend that the body is an input into the utility production process, and therefore, as with any input, it must be maintained and repaired at a level consistent with the output goals for maximization of utility. Thus, from this framework, it is quite consistent for a person to die with healthy organs without any thought of belief in reincarnation or the desire to bequeath one's bodily organs to others, or religious values. Self interest is all that must prevail.Also, the fact that there are interrelationships between the organs in the system, and at points these relationships take on fixed factor characteristics such that reduced levels of operation in one organ can create disorientation or coma or damage to other organs, means that the body cannot die as M-T suggest. Zero capacity for all organs at death is a technical impossibility as well as being inconsistent with the output goals of utility maximizers.     

Tax reform: Chasing the elusive dream

The paper provides a bird's-eye view of the long and arduous task of reforming the federal individual income tax. As a starting point for reviewing the major reforms, the authors evaluate Secretary Simon's criteria that underlie his contention that the tax system was badly in need of a thorough overhaul. Principles that should guide tax reforms are spelled out. Conflicts that arise with the application of these principles are highlighted. An examination of reform efforts in light of the principles and criteria set in the Treasury Department's Blue Prints for Tax Reform forms the basis for evaluating reforms enacted over the period 1978–2001. The review suggests that we are partway towards achieving the tax man's dream of equity, efficiency, and simplicity.The task of comprehensive reform is monumental in its dimension and far reaching in itspotential impact on our economic well-being.[William E. Simon, 1977, p. 11]     

Returns to scale,imperfect competition and aggregate demand and trade policy effects in a two-country model

This paper constructs a simple general equilibrium two-country model with flexible exchange rates, specialization in production, and oligopolistic firms. The model is simulated in order to investigate how returns to scale and imperfect competition influence the process through which the aggregate demand and trade policy effects are transmitted internationally. The possibility that aggregate demand and trade policies enacted by one country can have beggar my neighbor effects on the other country cannot be excluded.     

Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?

Intra-European exchange rate variability has significant economic costs. VAR causality tests show that higher short-run variability of exchange rates against other EU currencies was associated with higher unemployment, less employment, and lower investment for most EU member countries. Robustness tests show that this result holds up in the presence of both policy instruments that might have had an impact on exchange rate variability and cyclical variables that might have influenced labor demand. A model that incorporates the option value of waiting suggests that even short-term spikes in volatility exert a strong impact on investment and labor markets.     

Betting on the EMS

Two speculative strategies within the European Monetary System are empirically evaluated. The potential profitability of speculating on a currency's devaluation at a realignment crucially depends on being able to predict timing and magnitude of the parity change. Such opportunity has been eliminated from the system since 1983. For the reverse strategy of borrowing low, investing high, the evidence since 1983 suggests significant profitable opportunities for the weaker EMS countries — Belgium, Denmark, France and Italy — unconditional on knowledge of the timing of realignments. We conclude that this is due to a peso problem type of premium.     

Charles Kindleberger: An Impressionist in a Minimalist World

Minimalist economists stubbornly resist Charles Kindlebergers characterization of investor expectations in a financial bubble as irrational. This paper seeks to resolve the controversy by imbedding Kindlebergers well-researched, impressionistic theory of financial crises into an expanded, but still-minimalist model of rational expectations. Introducing the concepts of malicious disinformation and rational overpromotion creates an informational environment in which it is time-consuming and costly to distinguish fact from fiction. Rationality still requires that expectations and market fundamentals move together over long periods of time, but dishonorable overpromoters can earn substantial profits in the interim.     

Shall the New EU Members Introduce the Euro? Some Macroeconomic Policy Effects

After the EU enlargement in 2004, there is a clear commitment of the EU and the new member states to aim at an enlargement of the euro zone within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as well. This might have significant effects on the old EMU, the new members, and even on the global economy. The present paper analyzes some macroeconomic effects and particularly the impact on the effects of stabilization policies when switching to an enlarged euro zone under different assumptions about fiscal and monetary policy regimes in Europe and under alternative types of economic shocks. Also, the implications for the US of different European monetary regimes are evaluated. The results suggest that economic benefits for all countries are rather small. For the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), even disadvantages may dominate.     

Commitment and coordination in a dynamic game model of international economic policy-making

In this paper, we consider a dynamic game model of two identical countries. Policy-makers of both countries have quadratic intertemporal objective functions and want to stabilize domestic output, domestic inflation, and the real rate of exchange. We present different analytical and numerical solutions for this policy game. Noncooperative open-loop equilibria are interpreted as requiring unilateral commitment and policy-makers' credibility. Potential gains from cooperation are present, as the noncooperative equilibrium solutions are not Pareto-optimal. Under an information pattern that admits memory strategies, the possibility of obtaining cooperative results without coordination and commitment arises.     

Incorporating inventories into supply and demand analysis

Conclusion In the microeconomic portions of principles and intermediate macroeconomics, supply and demand analysis is presented as the truth. However, the simple Keynesian macroeconomic model virtually ignores market clearing, while the standard microeconomic model of supply and demand assumes perfect market clearing. Since hidden assumptions are a major source of confusion and misunderstanding between economists and the general public, students should be exposed to stock-flow analysis at the intermediate level as a separate or integrated chapter on supply and demand.     

Economische orde,economische politiek en sociale politiek

Naar aanleiding van een bundel opstellen van dr J. Zijlstra, Economische Orde en Economische Politiek, H. E. Stenfert Kroese N.V., Leiden 1956, 143 blz. en een bundel opstellen van dr G. M. J. Veldkamp, Economische Orde en Sociale Politiek, H. E. Stenfert Kroese N.V., Leiden 1957, 156 blz.     

The identification of liquidity effects in the EMS: Italy 1991–1992

We study the impact of liquidity shocks in Italy in the 1991–1992 period, when the lira belonged to the narrow ERM band with no exchange controls. We conduct our analysis by constructing (not simply assuming) predetermined measures of liquidity supply shocks, taking into account the institutional features of the money market and the reserve requirements' average computation system. We find that the supply of liquidity did significantly affect short-term interest rates; however, in contrast to earlier periods, most of the interest rate variations were attributable to foreign-exchange-related factors, as predicted by the asymmetric view of the ERM.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Real Exchange Rate Interlinkages

This paper examines theoretically and empirically the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and the real exchange rate. It is found that in large countries with freely floating currencies, such as the USA, the UK and Japan, causality runs from the real exchange rate to FDI. These results are consistent with the predictions of models of financial behavior. Causality runs both ways in small countries with fixed or quasi fixed currencies, such as the EU countries. These results are consistent with models, which emphasize on trade integration. It is shown that a weaker euro will not have uniform effects on FDI inflows across the unified Europe.     

Target zones and wealth effects: Current account implications of alternative policy assignments

This paper evaluates the current-account implications of coordinated disinflationary policy in a two-country framework, when fiscal policy is assigned to control inflation and monetary policy is used to hold down the exchange rate at its target zone level. The performance of an alternative regime, where monetary policy controls inflation and fiscal policy is assigned to control the current account is also assessed.     

Fiscal Rules in a Monetary Union: A Short-Run Analysis

This article challenges the conventional result according to which an instrument-independent central bank able to strictly commit to price stability makes fiscal constraints unnecessary. We present a model of a monetary union with heterogeneous members where the inefficient policy mix resulting from the lack of coordination between the common monetary policy and national fiscal policies incites the governments to appoint excessively liberal delegates to the central bank's board. We characterize the fiscal restraints necessary to restore the central bank's ability to deliver the most desirable degree of price stability. It appears that even country-specific and state-contingent restraints may be counterproductive for some member states.