Understanding the sovereign credit ratings of emerging markets

This paper identifies the macroeconomic factors behind the sovereign credit ratings of global emerging markets assigned by Standard and Poor's (S&P). The financial integration and globalization of capital markets have facilitated the capital inflows/outflows among countries. Sovereign credit ratings have served as a signal for countries' economic, financial and political situations. Ratings are very important in the sense that they attract capital inflow and investments. This is especially vital for emerging markets. Although the rating agencies do not explicitly reveal their methodologies, it is possible to guess the effects of several variables on ratings by using various econometric models. Concerning the heavy criticisms on rating agencies' performances, we wish to examine the sovereign credit ratings within a specific country-category. In this essay, we study the effects of macroeconomic factors on the sovereign ratings of emerging markets. Using several approaches, we find that the most relevant factors are Budget Balance/GDP, GDP per capita, Governance Indicators and Reserves/GDP. Moreover, our model predicts up to 93% of all credit rating levels. Interestingly, we obtain that S&P's evaluation of the sovereign credit rating for Turkey performs poorly, especially in the highest rating levels.     

Financial connectedness of BRICS and global sovereign bond markets

The paper examines the financial connectedness via return and volatility spillovers between Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) and three global bond market indices represented by the United States of America (USA), European Monetary Union (EMU) and Japan for the period 01 January 1997 to 27 July 2016 (weekly data). We find that Russia followed by South Africa is the net transmitter of shocks within BRICS, implying that the risk arising from these markets may have an adverse impact on others in BRICS. However, China and India exhibit weak connectedness, suggesting that these markets may be useful for hedging and diversification opportunities in BRICS. The networks of pairwise spillover results further confirm this. Among global indices, China appears as highly interconnected with the USA. USA is the strongest transmitter of shocks to BRICS bond indices. The panel data results further confirm the significant determinants of net directional spillover. Thus, we can conclude that BRICS is a heterogeneous asset class even in the case of the bond market. India and China are the markets to look for better risk management strategies.     

Frontier and emerging government bond markets

We investigate correlation dynamics and diversification properties of US dollar-denominated debt issued by governments of frontier markets. Our analysis is on the aggregate, regional, and country level, with a sample covering 29 countries over the period 2001–2013. We show that the correlation between the returns of frontier government bond markets and US government bonds is time-varying, but on average close to zero. Correlations with US investment grade corporate bonds, US corporate high yield bonds, and US dollar-denominated debt issued by governments of emerging markets are substantially higher, which limits diversification benefits for investors who already own these asset classes.     

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.     

Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads

This paper investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modeling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model allows us to decompose credit spreads and build indicators of EM risks. A key result is that indices of EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads differ because of their specific reactions to global risks (risk aversion, liquidity and US corporate risk). For example, following Lehman's default, EM sovereign spreads ‘decoupled’ from the US corporate market, whereas EM corporates ‘recoupled.’     

Driven by the markets? ECB sovereign bond purchases and the securities markets programme

At the height of the European sovereign debt crisis, the European Central Bank decided to purchase distressed European government bonds. Even worse, and more importantly, the ECB is providing direct support of several hundred billions of euros to troubled banks via its normal monetary policy operations by granting them the opportunity to refinance at an interest rate of 1%. This article argues that these purchases will result in common monetary policy being dominated by national fiscal policies. The most worrisome aspect is that the euro area appears to have stumbled into unconventional monetary policies that, once started, will be difficult to exit. In the euro area, properly functioning financial markets are at risk.     

Interaction in euro area sovereign bond markets during the financial crisis

Applying a t-DCC-GARCH model to daily spread data, four phases of interaction in euro area sovereign bond markets are identifi ed between January 2008 and June 2013. The initial period (January-October 2008) is followed by a general rise in pairwise correlation values between November 2008 and late 2009/early 2010. Interaction then declines on a piecemeal basis up to early 2012. In autumn 2012, coinciding with the announcement of the Outright Monetary Transactions programme by the European Central Bank, there is evidence of some reengagement of bond markets with one another. Policy then seems to have had an infl uence on euro area sovereign bond market behaviour. While it can act to calm markets, policy may also be unduly infl uencing market dynamics and raising moral hazard issues.     

Linkages in the term structure of interest rates across sovereign bond markets

This paper investigates the linkages in the sovereign bond yields across different maturity spectrums among both developed and Asian countries. Term structure of interest rate is estimated using the Dynamic Nelson Siegel model and Kalman filter. The degrees of integration and transmission of shocks from one country to another are measured using forecast error variance decomposition in the generalized vector autoregression (VAR) model. The level factor showed higher spillover index across the countries. Regional influence is found to be higher in slope and curvature factors among the Asian countries. The linkages are high during periods of crisis.     

Including emerging markets in international momentum investment strategies

Momentum return investment strategies that diversify across countries provide lower portfolio standard deviations and/or increased expected returns. These diversification benefits are larger when adding emerging markets than when adding developed markets, and they are larger than would be suggested by diversifying with long-only portfolios. Using data on almost 16,000 firms from 22 developed and 18 emerging markets over the 1990–2004 period, we confirm the profitability of momentum trading strategies in both developed and emerging markets and document the diversification benefits of including emerging markets in an international momentum portfolio investment strategy.     

Organizational entrainment and international new ventures from emerging markets

Organizational entrainment captures the temporal fit in the activity cycles between exchange partners. We argue that organizational entrainment between international new ventures (INVs) and their most important international customers positively moderates the relationship between the degree, scope, and speed of internationalization and performance of INVs. We test our hypotheses on INVs from China, India and South Africa. The results support the contingent role of entrainment for degree and scope of internationalization but not for speed. Findings suggest that, when INVs attain temporal fit with their most important international customers, they can implement their strategic goals in international markets more effectively.     

VaR performance during the subprime and sovereign debt crises: An application to emerging markets

Highly volatile scenarios, such as those provoked by the recent subprime and sovereign debt crises, have questioned the accuracy of current risk forecasting methods. This paper adds fuel to this debate by comparing the performance of alternative specifications for modeling the returns filtered by an ARMA-GARCH: Parametric distributions (Student's t and skewed-t), the extreme value theory (EVT), semi-nonparametric methods based on the Gram–Charlier (GC) expansion and the normal (benchmark). We implement backtesting techniques for the pre-crisis and crisis periods for stock index returns and a hedge fund of emerging markets. Our results show that the Student's t fails to forecast VaR during the crisis, while the EVT and GC accurately capture market risk, the latter representing important savings in terms of efficient regulatory capital provisions.     

Predicting default probabilities and implementing trading strategies for emerging markets bond portfolios

In this paper, we address two main issues: the computation of default probability implicit in emerging markets bond prices and the impact on portfolio risks and returns of expected changes in default probability. Using a reduced-form model, weekly estimates of default probabilities for U.S. Dollar denominated Global bonds of 12 emerging markets are extrapolated for the sample period 1997–2001. The estimation of a logit type econometric model shows that weekly changes of the default probabilities can be explained by means of some capital markets factors. Recursively estimating the logit model using rolling windows of data, out-of-sample forecasts for the dynamics of default probabilities are generated and used to form portfolios of bonds. The practical application provides interesting results, both in terms of testing the ability of a naive trading strategy based on model forecasts to outperform a “customized benchmark”, and in terms of the model ability to actively manage the portfolio risk (evaluated in terms of VaR) with respect to a constant proportion allocation.     

Market integration in developed and emerging markets: Evidence from the CAPM

Beta, as measured by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), is widely used for pricing stocks, determining the cost of capital, and gauging the extent to which markets are integrated. The CAPM model assumes that equilibrium conditions prevail. The choice of which market portfolio to use in the regression – the home country or global index – depends on the level of global market integration. We present several new empirical observations on the pricing of stocks and market integration. We provide guidance on how practitioners should calculate beta on securities in various developed and emerging markets.     

Exploring and investigating sustainable international business practices by MNEs in emerging markets

While there are a number of dimensions to sustainability, ranging from the environmental to the social, a common assumption in the literature is that firms from the mature markets are more likely to have the capacity and indeed, rationale to take sustainability more seriously. Emerging market counterparts, MNEs included, are seen to lag behind in sustainable practices. However, recent developments challenge this conventional wisdom. This article introduces the special issue on ‘Sustainable International Business Practices by MNEs in Emerging Markets, and highlights emerging themes which are promising future directions for theoretical and empirical enquiry.     

Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries

This is a unique study of the relationship between emerging sovereign rating migrations and the sources of rating heterogeneity. It employs data from six international rating agencies and 90 emerging countries. Rating momentum is present, and we are the first to document that multiple-notch rating changes have greater impact on the probability of subsequent rating actions. Watchlist status is influential on migration probabilities, and dominates rating momentum in some cases. Rating duration, existing rating and issuer's domicile region are useful determinants in modelling the migration process. Notably, considerable inter-agency differences are revealed, suggestive of different rating processes being employed.     

Capitalizing on emerging markets

Miller, R. (1998) Selling to Newly Emerging Markets, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 274 pages, ISBN 1 56720 044 3 Dixon, J. and Newman, D. (1998) Entering the Chinese Market: The Risks and Discounted Rewards, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 1 56720 137 7 Bullis, D. (1998) Doing Business in Today's India, Westport, CT: Quorum Books, 320 pages, ISBN 1 56720 136 9     

The big emerging markets

During his tenure as Under Secretary of Commerce, the author was one of the architects of the Clinton administration's Big Emerging Markets policy under Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown. He is now dean of the Yale School of Management. The Clinton policy emerged out of a growing conviction that some ten markets will account for the overwhelming growth potential in world imports, not to mention commensurate growth in economic and political influence around the world. These markets include, in Asia—the Chinese Economic Area (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan), South Korea, Indonesia and India; in Africa—South Africa; in Central Europe—Poland and Turkey; and in Latin America—Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. The administration concluded that, because many of these countries still have important state sectors, and because virtually all are focusing heavily on infrastructure projects that demand the involvement of local governments, U.S. companies need the U.S. government at their side to win a fair hearing. What is more, because of the intensity of foreign competition and the capital demands on these countries, international competitors will be public/private partnerships in which foreign governments provide concessionary financing and aggressive advocacy to support their companies' efforts.This presentation is based on the author's speeches during his tenure as Under Secretary for International Trade of the U.S. Department of Commerce, June 1993 to October 1995.     

Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper examines whether Asian emerging stock markets (India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) have become integrated into world capital markets since their official liberalization dates by estimating and testing a dynamic integrated international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean approach. Also examined in this paper is whether there are pure contagion effects between stock and foreign exchange markets for each Asian country during the 1997 Asian crisis. The empirical results show that first, both currency and world market risks are priced and time-varying, suggesting that an international asset pricing model under PPP and constant price of risk might give rise to model misspecification. Second, the stock markets for India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand were segmented from the world capital markets before their liberalization dates, but all six markets have become fully integrated since then. Third, the market liberalization has reduced the cost of capital and price volatility for most of the countries. Finally, as for the contagion effects, strong positive impact of return shocks originating from the domestic stock market to its foreign exchange market during the crisis is found. This dynamic relationship between stock market and foreign exchange market is consistent with stock-oriented exchange rate models.