Vulnerable groups in recessionary situations: The case of children and the young in Chile

This study analyses the impact which recessionary conditions have had in Chile on a particularly vulnerable age group: children and the young. In addition to the external crisis, Chile experienced serious imbalances in the form of inflation and balance-of-payments deficits in the early 1970s. Social development experts have long recommended the application of selective policies to ‘target groups’ whose situation is especially vulnerable to economic fluctuations. During the early 1970s, Chile implemented policies specifically designed to improve the situation of children, especially in terms of mother and child care, and programmes were undertaken to combat infant undernutrition. This paper evaluates the success of these programmes in counteracting the negative effects of the recession and the recessionary adjustment policies.     

ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION AND CHANGES IN CORPORATE CONTROL IN LATIN AMERICA

This article analyzes ownership restructuring and changes in corporate control in four large Latin American countries—Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico—during the 1990s. Drawing on original firm‐level data, this is a comparative study aimed at identifying cross‐country differences and regularities. It focuses on transactions associated with privatizations and private mergers and acquisitions (M&As)—their evolution, relative importance, and sectoral incidence—as well as the role played by different types of investors: local, foreign, and joint ventures. A specially built database was used in the analysis, comprising 3,085 private M&As and 329 privatization transactions. Although similar to processes occurring elsewhere, it is argued that ownership restructuring in Latin America was facilitated and fostered by specific changes in policy‐associated institutional framework conditions. That is, the wide‐ranging process of ownership restructuring is strongly associated with economic liberalization, which has become the main feature of Latin American national regimes of incentives and regulation.     

The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies

Optimal stabilization policy is countercyclical, aiming at keeping output close to its potential. However it has been traditionally argued that emerging countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies. Here we argue that the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies depend critically on policy credibility. We test this proposition by making use of recent panel data for eleven emerging market economies and time series data for Chile. The evidence supports that countries with higher credibility, as reflected by lower country risk levels, are able to conduct countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies. Conversely, countries with less credible policies (and, therefore, with higher country risk spreads) contribute to larger cyclical fluctuations by applying procyclical policies. For Chile we find that both monetary and fiscal policies have been largely countercyclical after 1993. JEL no. E43, E52, E62     

Inflation,stabilization and attempted redemocratization in Peru, 1975–1979

This paper discusses the acute stabilization crisis of 1975–1978 and attempts to explain why, for so long, it proved difficult to handle both in economic and in political terms. The role of external creditors, in particular the International Monetary Fund (IMF), is discussed. We examine the response of the entrepreneurial and labour sectors to the policy of the government, and attempt to explain why a coup along Chilean lines would have been very difficult to impose in Peru. Finally we analyse the implications of the recovery of 1979, when suddenly IMF targets were easily fulfilled, but with a proposed return to democracy and not, as in the southern-cone countries, a repressive authoritarianism. The development of 1979 do not qualify the earlier analysis of the unsuitability of abrupt and orthodox stabilization to an economy such as Peru's.     

Interrelationship between social and economic policies in the sphere of household income and consumption and macroeconomic dynamics

This article presents a conceptual scheme of the impact made on the economic development by the social and economic policies in the field of household income and consumption. A set of tools is presented for taking into account the multiplicative effects of social and economic policies. The interrelationships are studied between the dynamics in wages and prices and the parameters of the macroeconomic technology with an allowance for the principles of economic equilibrium.     

Some theoretical and empirical issues relating to economic stabilization in developing countries

This paper surveys some issues relating to economic stabilization in developing countries. Section 2 examines the contributions of terms-of-trade deterioration and real exchange rate appreciation to payments imbalances in non-oil developing countries during the 1970s. Section 3 distinguishes between demand-side and supply-side policies, and discusses their respective roles in stabilization programmes. The effects of exchange-rate changes are considered within this framework. In Section 4, the effects of alternative stabilization policies on output, prices and the balance of payments are illustrated using simulations of a model that incorporates the major relationships relevant to a typical programme. Section 5 summarizes the conclusions.     

Monetarism,employment and social stratification

The main purpose of this study is to analyse the changes that have occurred in the employment structure as a result of monetarist economic policies applied in Chile and Argentina throughout the last decade. This analysis is made in the context of trends observed over the last 30 years in both countries. The paper contends that the occupational changes resulting from these monetarist policies do not imply a break with the past, but that the accentuation of the earlier trends is so great that it creates an entirely different economic and social scene. This has far-reaching implications for issues such as, inter alia, deindustrialization and the nature and status of the working class.     

Post-crisis China impact on trade integration and manufacturing competitiveness between Argentina and Brazil

Considering the short-term and long-term global financial crisis effects on industrial and trade policies implemented in China, Argentina, and Brazil, this article empirically analyzes China’s impact on trade integration and manufacturing competitiveness between Argentina and Brazil during the post-crisis period. Under a trilateral trade framework, this paper conducts both standard and modified Constant Market Share analyses, using trade data disaggregated at HS 6-digit level between the 2009–2014 period provided by BACI database. The quantitative estimation of relative gains and losses of Argentina and Brazil facing China’s evolving import demand and export supply provides evidence for three main findings. First, it shows the persistence of China’s asymmetric trade pattern with Argentina and Brazil, but a decline in China’s weight in explaining the decreasing bilateral trade intensity between Argentina and Brazil; second, the divergent export performance between Argentina and Brazil to China, mainly attributed to the competitiveness shift in the soybean sector; and finally the enlargement of a competitiveness gap between Mercosur countries and China in the upstream of manufacturing supply chain.     

Indexing,exchange rate policy and inflationary feedback effects in Latin America

This paper examines inflationary adjustment processes in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Peru, and Uruguay with time-varying estimation techniques to determine the relationship between inflationary inertia or feedback effects from past to current inflation and the degree of indexation of wages and exchange rates to past inflation rates. The results show that reductions in the degree of exchange rate linkage to past inflation have not been particularly helpful in larger or relatively more diversified economies (such as Argentina, Brazil, or Chile), while reductions in wage linkages to past inflation rates have had strong but short-lived effects.     

American & Foreign Power in Argentina and Brazil (1926–65)

The article analyses the evolution, strategies, and position of the American & Foreign Power company (AFP) in Argentina and Brazil from the mid-1920s to the second post-war period. We compare the economic performance and the strategies followed by this US group in different host economies, examining the relations between the US electricity firms and the governments of both countries that explain American & Foreign Power's withdrawal from Argentina and Brazil in 1959–65. The study is based upon the annual reports and proceedings of American & Foreign Power (1923–63) and other corporate reports, government statistics, and official reports from Argentina, Brazil, and the US.     

Rural Nonfarm Employment and Incomes in Chile

This article analyzes the evolution of rural nonfarm employment (RNFE) and income in Chile during 1990–96. The data used come from the National Socioeconomic Survey (CASEN), and from a household survey undertaken by the authors in two municipalities in 1999. The latter contrasted two zones, very different in terms of economic dynamism and rural poverty. We show that during the period, RNFE and incomes increased 10% and 18%, respectively, in 1996, reaching 39% of rural employment and 41% of rural incomes. The rate of multiactivity (the share of households participating in more than one sector) was only 20%, lower than expected, indicating a tendency toward economic specialization in rural income strategies. The determinants of such employment are mainly household characteristics, in particular variables related to human capital, such as the age and gender of the household head, and the schooling of the household members, although also important are access to credit and physical capital. The level of nonfarm income of rural households is determined mainly by the economic context, in particular the economic level and dynamism of the overall zone and the quality of the roads. It is proposed that policies to develop RNFE should be geared to zone characteristics, and should in general favor investments in education, in roads, and in access to credit. Moreover, households headed by women should be the object of special attention. To promote such policies, it will be necessary to address important gaps and weaknesses in the public institutional structure.     

Localisation of Industry in Chile, 1895–1967: Mining Cycles and State Policy

Mining cycles have had an enormous impact in the evolution of the localisation of economic activity, in particular of industry, in Chile. The nitrate cycle was characterised by a labour‐intensive extraction process and activity which was geographically very concentrated. The copper cycle was geographically more dispersed and its activity more capital‐intensive. We stress the role played by the State in the latter de‐concentration due to the impact of regional development policies and assess the importance of factor endowments and agglomeration economies, in the localisation of the manufacture.     

Democracy, History, and Economic Performance: A Case-Study Approach

Crossnational statistical studies show a positive relationship between the length of time a country has been democratic and its economic performance. Old democracies grow faster, ceteris paribus, and also demonstrate advantages in some economic policies thought to be conducive to growth. However, the causal connections between regime history and economic policy and performance remain opaque. Arguments are highly speculative, for the causal pathways are usually difficult to measure and are not readily testable in a large-N cross-country format. In order to illuminate possible interconnections between regime history and economic performance we identify three countries in the developing world whose recent history may be regarded as illustrative: Brazil, India, and Mauritius. Our analysis of these cases focuses on the achievement of policy consensus and policy reform, both of which are commonly regarded as critical to economic performance. Intensive study of our chosen cases suggests multiple mechanisms by which democratic experience might translate into greater success on these policy dimensions.     

On ‘the political economy of stabilization’

Joan Nelson (1984) includes Sri Lanka in the period 1977–1982 in a series of case studies of the factors affecting the political acceptability of stabilization and adjustment programs. This is misleading because, unlike the other countries dealt with, Sri Lanka was not faced with an economic crisis when it accepted large multilateral loans under policy conditionality. In fact, the economic policies pursued in Sri Lanka after 1977 reflect the interests and political program of the domestic capitalist class. The existence of such a class introduces dimensions to the analysis of the politics of adjustment not dealt with in Nelson's framework.     

The choices for Scandinavian social democracy in comparative perspective

Scandinavian social democracy represents one of the most systematicattempts to shape economic institutions and policies in pursuitof equality and full employment. Increasingly, however, thesegoals have eluded governments, and their institutional supportshave eroded. This paper seeks to understand this shift througha comparative analysis that places particular emphasis on theinteraction between macroeconomic policies and wage-bargaininginstitutions. It is argued that the nature of this interaction,and the associated economic effects, have been changed by newtechnology, capital market integration, and service-sector expansion.As a result, centralized wage-bargaining institutions and accommodatingmacroeconomic policy regimes have been undermined, and socialdemocracy increasingly faces a choice between the promotionof equality and employment for all.     

Geography,policy, or productivity? Regional trade in five South American countries, 1910–50

Regional trade in South America since independence has long been much smaller than would be expected if geography were the only constraint on trade. Several potential explanations exist, including low technological and demand complementarities; low productivity; and high natural and policy barriers to trade. Focusing on the latter explanations, policy makers have long advocated a South American/Southern Cone Free Trade Area—proposed as early as 1889. Would reductions in trade costs have been sufficient to raise trade significantly, or was trade low for other reasons? We study bilateral trade between 1910 and 1950, when large external shocks altered global supply and demand. These shocks help us show that intra‐regional trade could have been boosted by reductions in trade costs. Trade among Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, and Peru could have benefited from more benign trade policies or better infrastructure. Regional trade in textiles, which took off from the 1930s, supports our argument that trade improved when trade costs fell.     

国家重点生态功能区产业准入负面清单制度配套人口政策研究

基于国家重点生态功能区产业准入负面清单制度,分析其对区域人口的影响以及相应配套的人口政策和改革路径。研究表明,产业准入负面清单实施将改变人口城镇化的经济驱动力、改变劳动力市场并加快人口迁移。配套人口政策的核心应为控制人口总量、促进人口迁移和城镇化、推动人口教育与扶贫。针对负面清单编制各阶段的特点和需求,配套相应的人口政策,综合使用强制性、激励性、指导型、信息型和服务型等多样化的人口政策工具。     

The standard of living in Latin America during the twentieth century1

New and consistent series for Latin American real incomes, life expectancy and adult literacy over the twentieth century reveal that living standards rose most rapidly between the 1930s and 1970s, a period characterised by increased state intervention and reduced trade openness. Within the region, Brazil and Mexico advanced most over the century as a whole despite the early start made by Argentina and Chile, although convergence between larger countries was accompanied by divergence from smaller ones. There was no sustained narrowing of the income gap with the US at all between 1900 and 2000 but some convergence in living standards due to improved life expectancy. Our new estimates of regional per capita income also permit a clearer comparison with both Europe and Asia. The major advances in living standards achieved in the middle decades of the century were closely related to early industrialization, rapid urbanization, and the extension of primary health and education. Subsequent economic volatility and fiscal fragility limited further increases in living standards, undermining social consensus on development strategy.     

Basic education and income inequality in Brazil

This paper attempts to elucidate the long-term impact of basic education on income inequality in Brazil. It does so, first, by examining how investment in basic education affects incomes and, second, by assessing the extent to which government involvement in the financing of education services and the taxing of the returns of education investment contributes to the achievement of a more equitable distribution of income.On the basis of the empirical evidence available in Brazil, it is possible to suggest that: (i) education per se cannot significantly reduce inequality, (ii) government policies in terms of education subsidies and taxes on lifetime earnings do not show a clear redistribution pattern, and (iii) there exist effective policy tools in the area of employment, education wastage, cost recovery practices which could help bridge the gap between rates of return to education and reduce income inequality.