Relevance of trade facilitation in emerging countries' exports

The objective of this article is to analyse trade flows in emerging nations with a maritime boundary, where trade facilitation plays a decisive role in their international development. In order to detect possible patterns in performance, we apply the economic approach of gravity models using the World Bank Logistic Performance Index (LPI) as a good proxy of trade facilitation. The results of the estimation lead to the conclusion that the more complex the transportation of goods is, the more influential the logistics indicator, trade facilitation being most prominent in Middle East exporters.     

基于 APEC的贸易便利化测评及对我国出口影响的实证分析

本文根据全球竞争力报告等多种商业调查数据,对多个国家的贸易便利化水平进行了测算和排序,运用引力模型定量分析了贸易便利化水平对我国贸易出口量的影响,确认我国贸易便利化水平为一般便利,发现贸易的便利化比关税减让更能促进一国出口量的增长,指出各国贸易便利化改革主要以达到贸易量增长为目标,并对我国贸易便利化改革提出了对策建议。     

Impact of Trade Facilitation on Parts and Components Trade

This article utilizes data from seventy-seven countries over the period 2004–07 in a gravity trade model to examine the impact of four dimensions of trade facilitation—physical infrastructure, information and communication technology, business environment, and border efficiency—on parts and components and final goods trade for the machinery and transport equipment sector. The results show that the effect of importers’ overall trade facilitation measures is stronger for promoting parts and components than for final goods trade. Among the four dimensions, border efficiency has the largest impact on trade flows for this sector, and the effect of exporter and particularly importers’ border efficiency is important for parts and components, as compared to final goods trade.     

Facilitating international production networks: The role of trade logistics

Networked trade in parts and components is more sensitive to the importer's logistics performance than is final goods trade. The difference between the two trade semi-elasticities is over 45%, which is quantitatively important. We also find that logistics performance is particularly important for trade among developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which is where the emergence of production networks has been most pronounced. Logistics performance is also more important for South–South trade than for South–North trade. Our results suggest that developing country policymakers can support the development of international production networks by improving trade logistics performance.     

基于行为视角的贸易伙伴国进口便利化对中国的出口贸易效应研究

本文基于中国的贸易伙伴国进口贸易便利化视角,选取进口文件、进口时间及进口成本3个指标构建贸易便利化水平评价体系,并利用改进的引力模型实证检验其对中国出口贸易的影响效应。此外,基于分区域改进引力模型回归结果,选取贸易伙伴国进口成本指标设计两套方案检验贸易伙伴国进口便利化改善对中国出口贸易的影响。结果显示:贸易伙伴国的进口便利化水平改善能显著促进中国出口贸易,当贸易伙伴国进口成本分别降至区域平均水平与最低水平时,中国的出口总量将分别增加1,963.7亿美元与11,431.06亿美元。     

The impact of foreign direct investment on host country exports: A meta-analysis

In this paper, we present a synthesis of the literature examining the impact of foreign direct investment on host country exports. We reviewed and summarised 37 theoretical papers, 27 micro-level empirical studies and analysed 627 specifications from 117 macro-level empirical studies. In exploring the reasons behind the variations of the reported effects in the empirical literature, we applied meta-regression methodology. Our results indicate that the existing empirical literature generally reports a positive impact of foreign direct investment on exports, especially in developing countries. The reported effects are sensitive to research design, model specification and the context of the research. No publication bias was detected in the sampled studies. Based on our results, we provide some avenues and guidelines for future research on this topic. Our results could also have some important implications for policymakers.     

中国新疆与周边国家边境贸易便利化水平研究

贸易便利化已经成为当前世界各国及国际组织普遍关注的热点问题。本文以中国新疆边境贸易为研究对象,通过选取反映边境贸易便利化发展的14个指标,构建评价边境贸易便利化的指标体系,运用综合评价分析法,测算中国新疆与周边国家边境贸易便利化水平。研究结果表明:中国新疆的边境贸易便利化水平相对最高,其次是哈萨克斯坦,吉尔吉斯斯坦的边境贸易便利化水平最低;中国新疆除了铁路口岸设施质量、互联网使用人数的便利化水平值低于俄罗斯,其余的测评指标便利化水平值均高于周边国家,但指标整体的便利化水平值相差不大,且水平值很低,整体的边境贸易环境仍需改善。     

The determinants of Turkey's exports to Islamic countries: The impact of political risks

Using the traditional gravity model, this paper aims to analyze the determinants of Turkish exports to 43 Islamic Development Bank member countries for the period from 1996 to 2015. The paper specifically investigates the effects of 12 political risk measures (bureaucracy quality, corruption, democratic accountability, government stability, internal and external conflict, investment profile, law and order, military in politics, religious and ethnic tensions, and socioeconomic conditions) in the importing countries on the total volume of exports of Turkey. After implementing various robustness checks, the paper finds that the government instability in the importing countries is negatively associated with the Turkish exports.     

贸易引力模型研究新进展及其在中国的应用

贸易引力模型作为分析双边贸易量的工具已在国际贸易中得到广泛应用。本文首先介绍了贸易引力模型的内涵和形式,然后把贸易引力模型的实证研究新进展分为调整解释变量和解释边境效应两个阶段进行了梳理,从基于贸易理论基础和不基于贸易理论基础两个角度对贸易引力模型理论基础推导新进展进行了分析,对贸易引力模型在中国对外贸易中的应用进行了介绍。最后进行了评述和展望,并指出中国贸易引力模型的研究方向。     

基于引力模型的中俄双边贸易流量与潜力研究

后金融危机时期,中俄双方政治互信升级,两国建立了更为密切、全面的战略协作伙伴关系。文章基于较长时间跨度(1989～2010年)中俄双边贸易相关数据构建贸易引力扩展模型,研究两国贸易流量的影响因素以及发展潜力问题,并提出促进双边贸易发展的政策建议:进一步深化区域合作机制,完善贸易制度安排;强调各领域的务实合作;积极构建中俄自由贸易区;加强双边经贸结构调整,培育新兴贸易形态。     

Pakistan's agricultural exports,determinants and its potential: an application of stochastic frontier gravity model

The most important and imperative objective of the developing nations is rapid economic growth and exports are generally considered as an engine for economic growth. Being an agro-based economy, agriculture exports play pivotal role not only in economic growth but also in socioeconomic uplifting. This study aims at evaluating main determinants of agricultural exports of Pakistan by applying stochastic frontier gravity model over the period of 1995–2014 for a sample of 63 countries. In addition, the study also analyzes whether there is any untapped export potential between Pakistan and the trading partners in agriculture sector. The results confirm the consistency of gravity model for agriculture exports of Pakistan. Likewise, the estimates also point out that bilateral exchange as well as tariff rates also effect agriculture exports. The study has also incorporated the effect of common border, common culture, colonial history and preferential trading agreements by including their respective dummies. The study confirms the significance of each factor, except common language, with their respective magnitude. Moreover, technical efficiency estimates reveal that Pakistan has great export potential with neighboring, Middle Eastern and European countries.     

通用贸易定律及其在中国对外贸易中的验证

在贸易理论中能够定量应用于两个经济之间贸易额计算的,目前只有引力模型。但引力模型在实践中的应用效果并不令人满意。注意到贸易的本质就是交换,贸易额与产出之间应该存在着某种特定的数量关系,本文认为引力模型的基本形式应该能够普遍适用于国内贸易和国际贸易,并称之为“贸易定律”。模型中的距离应该理解为“经济距离”,代表运输成本。据此思路以中国对外贸易数据进行验证,贸易定律是有效的。     

A gravity model to account for vertical linkages between markets with an application to the cattle/beef sector

A gravity model is developed to explain bilateral trade flows in primary and processed commodities within the same agri-food supply chain. It accounts for vertical production linkages, trade and domestic policies, and supply rigidities at the farm level. Our application focuses on cattle/beef trade flows between 42 countries. The estimated parameters of the model are used to simulate trade flows. We found large differences in the impacts of the full and partial liberalization scenarios. A parametric bootstrap procedure is used to generate confidence intervals around predicted trade liberalization outcomes.     

A re-examination of the relation between democracy and international trade

Scholars and policy makers believe that democracy will bring prosperity through integration into the global economy via increased international trade. Existing research is plagued by methodological problems that obscure the empirics and avoid the theoretical problem of why democracies may or may not trade more. In this paper, I seek to correct these shortcomings. I test two theories as to why democracies might trade more. First, political freedom may be correlated with economic freedom, thus prompting higher levels of economic activity, thereby driving states to trade more. Second, democracy implies higher quality governance either through institutions or policy making procedures. To test the impact of democracy on trade and the potential transmission mechanisms, I utilize a bilateral gravity trade model covering approximately 150 countries from 1950 to 1999, with fixed effects for time, importers, and exporters. I find the theory that democracy, and many of its components, promotes international trade unconvincing. The coefficients are the theoretically correct sign; however, many are statistically or economically insignificant and fragile to changes in modeling or data. Economic freedom does not have the expected impact on international trade levels, but quality of governance variables have broad economic and statistical significance.     

The trade facilitation impact of the Chinese diaspora

Using an enhanced data set on the population share of overseas Chinese in 1970 and 1990, this paper analyses the impact of the Chinese diaspora on facilitating China's bilateral trade during the period 1973–2013. Our findings suggest substantial trade creation effects resulting from the presence of ethnic Chinese in the trade partner population. Diaspora impacts on Chinese bilateral imports are in general higher than those found for exports. Coethnic networks play a larger role as long as the partner country does not have an RTA with China in place. Among export sectors, effects found were strongest for food, as well as for machinery and transport equipment. In regard to imports, coethnic networks matter mostly for raw materials, machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals.     

中国服务贸易潜力——基于引力模型的测算

国外使用引力模型研究服务贸易始于2002年,国内研究则起步稍晚,至2009年方有学者致力于此类研究。从使用数据和实证模型两方面看,现有研究都有可进一步拓展的潜力。本文基于引力模型对服务贸易的决定因素进行识别与测算。本文在实证部分采用了基本引力模型,使用4种计量方法。结果显示:贸易双方经济规模、经济发展水平、物理距离和自由贸易区对总服务贸易额和分部门贸易额的影响表现出不同的显著性。     

Modelling the impact of non-tariff measures on supply chains in ASEAN

This paper explores the impact of reducing non-tariff measures (NTMs) in major ASEAN countries. New econometric estimates of the impact of different types of NTMs are used in a global supply chain model to separately model the effects on intermediate products and those sold to final consumers. We also distinguish between whether the NTM cost burden is directed at exporters or importers. This paper makes important advances in modelling the heterogeneity of NTMs, offering much richer policy analysis of the impact of NTMs on supply chains in the Asia-Pacific region than has previously been possible. We illustrate the benefits, both to the major ASEAN countries and to their trading partners, from the partial liberalisation by ASEAN countries of their most trade distorting types of NTMs. Such liberalisation increases the GDP and welfare of all countries, with the effect particularly pronounced for the major ASEAN countries themselves, especially Vietnam and the Philippines. As trade in plant products and animal products is particularly affected by NTMs, these sectors show the largest expansion of trade.     

The Gravity Model Analysis of Bangladesh's Trade: A Panel Data Approach

The article applies generalized gravity models to analyze Bangladesh's bilateral trade pattern using the panel data estimation technique. The results reveal that Bangladesh's trade is positively determined by the size of the economies, per capita gross domestic product differential and openness of the trading countries. Bangladesh's exports are positively determined by its income, partner countries' total import demand and openness, but negatively determined by partner countries' income and domestic inflation. Bangladesh's imports are positively determined by income of trading countries and degree of openness of the partner countries and negatively determined by partner countries' inflation. Transportation costs affect Bangladesh's trade negatively.     

Mergers and acquisitions & trade: A global value chain analysis

The present paper deals with how the insertion in international trade and global value chains (GVCs) of countries affects their capacity of attracting foreign mergers and acquisitions (M&As). To this end, we combine data for bilateral M&As and trade in value added for the period 2001–15 and estimate an augmented gravity equation. Results indicate that trade openness per se does not favour M&As. Nevertheless, bilateral free trade agreements, heterogeneity of destinations (sources) for exports (imports) of intermediate and final goods, and position and participation in global value chains are relevant for explaining bilateral M&As. Moreover, their role is significantly different depending on the level of development of the home and host countries.     

China's one belt one road initiative: The impact of trade facilitation versus physical infrastructure on exports

The One Belt One Road (OBOR) project is perhaps China's most significant international relations initiative in recent times. It is based on openness, harmony, inclusivity, mutual benefit and market operations and aims to connect the economically vibrant East Asia and the developed Europe by land and by sea, and in the process, it brings growth and development to tens of countries along the modern Silk routes. In this paper, we compare the impact of the main initiatives of OBOR, namely enhancements in physical infrastructure and improvements in border administration, on the trade of countries that have signed on to this project, especially countries along the six economic corridors. We find overwhelming evidence that shows improvements in border administration has the greatest impact on exports of corridor countries. Although physical infrastructure is important for trade, the Chinese government should place equal attention to improvements in trade facilitation to ensure trade routes operate seamlessly across the various corridors.